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EURO-USD

Positioning for FED hikes September [detailed macro post]We closed our latest EURUSD buy idea after failing to clear final targets before the end of today, well done to all those on the buy side who made a few... => Here we are now starting to position for the FED hikes tomorrow; As per today's odds (94.4%) markets are trading a done deal tomorrow . The US is structurally very strong with factors like lower tax rates in US is still attracting capital, reserve currency, upside of 2020 administration being more frugal.. etc.. providing an ever lasting pull factor, whilst on the other side of the coin we've got a twin deficit currency which is broadly viewed in the backstreets of Westminster as overvalued because of US protectionism and the fact fund managers in Europe will start adding exposure to the EZ and EUR once yields tick above zero. On the monetary side US rates are far higher than global rates. A divergence in FED members opinion on yield inversion, coupled with odds of a faster paced normalisation from the ECB in 2019 started to tick higher last week and a BOJ widening the yield band are weighting against the dollar on this one. EM crisis is in a bad shape via rate differentials, so what we are tracking here is any change in language from "accommodative" towards concerns over trade tensions or EM struggle (markets are not expecting this) as this will catch markets on the wrong side and short circuit all those pricing in a December hike as it gets pulled off the menu. Inflation is on track and unemployment is still falling so we have nothing to see on this front. Here expecting a slightly hawkish Powell and selling rallys towards 1.176xx. We will be covering this event live in the telegram with some key updates coming on the close today. Technical levels here we are still within the June ECB range so we are placing stops out of reach here to protect against any spikes tomorrow with targets at the bottom of the range (1.18xx - 1.15xx). A simple flow trading the inside of the range. GL all....
Short
by ridethepig
2
EUR/USD daily overviewThe previously observable dominant descending patterns on the EUR/USD chart were removed on Tuesday, as the surging momentum of the rate has managed to break both of them. Meanwhile, the rate continues to surge in the borders of a medium scale ascending pattern, which, together with the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages, has provided the rate with the needed support. Namely, the rate has surged up to the resistance of a monthly pivot point near the 1.1690 level. On Tuesday, the rate was consolidating its previous gains and waiting for the 55 and 100-hour SMAs to catch up before continuing the surge.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EURUSD - Bearish pinbar is forming off of bearish pennantA major sell signal is potentially forming in the EURUSD -0.02% . A large bearish pennant has formed and a bearish pinbar is currently forming off of the top of this pattern. The pennant pattern is giving us our bias and the candlestick pattern is giving us our entry signal. If the daily candle closes bearishly then this could be a tradeable setup. I will update my analysis after candle close. **Market Structure** -A bearish pennant format has been building since June -A major selloff lead into the pennant pattern which give this set an even greater bearish bias -A bearish pinbar is forming on the daily chart from the top of the pennant channel. This is create a major confluence of sell signals **Trading Tips** -If the daily candle closes as a bearish pinbar we may see price crash hard in the coming days -Whenever a bearish price action candlestick forms off of the top of a bearish pattern it creates the most optimal risk/reward setups -DO NOT JUMP THE GUN, WAIT FOR THE DAILY CANDLE TO CLOSE **Trade Ideas** -If the daily candle closes as a bearish pinbar a short entry can be made multiple ways, with varying risk/reward profiles. On the Forex markets a trader could wait for a break of the bottom of the and then enter short, or for a more risky but better Risk/Reward profile a trader could enter short if price retraces back up the pinbar , or a combination of both for a hybrid trade. -Another way to trade this is by selling a call on the futures market (ticker /6E). This would allow a trader to profit from a drop and also collect premium in case price moves sideways and does not aggressively drop as expected. -Finally the ETF FXE -0.07% could be traded as either outright stock or a synthetic short position could be created using the stock options.
by krugman87