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EURO-USD

#EURUSD to appreciate in the next years#EURUSD to appreciate in the next years Since 1995, EURUSD has been in a ABCDE Elliott Wave formation. In my opinion, it is in the beginning phase of wave D, which is an impulsive wave. Based on, trend-based fib time calculation, EURUSD can appreciate until 2024. It is a quite long time and trend-based fib time calculation is quite speculative but I at least think EURUSD is (and will be) in an uptrend. 1.25-1.40 range is a strong resistance range. EMA(8) and SMMA(12) golden cross can be in this range and if it passes above, the bullish tendency will be stronger up to 1.90 level. Ps: Heikin Ashi is used to see smooth price levels.
Long
by Trader_Geist
The Democrats seems to be losing the gripTrump tax reform Predicting the failure of the Trump tax reform because of its scale and unclear double-side backwash, skeptics apparently understated the president's negotiation skills. Despite initial skepticism, the number of supporters of the tax cuts is growing rapidly among Republicans. On Monday, it was clear that the level of approval allows for rolling out of a budget scheme as early as in October, opening the way for reform through Congress without Democrats’ support. If the budget estimate is not adopted, the bill can be approved only if there are at least 60 votes in the Senate, where the Republicans hold 52-48 majority. Fiscal stimulus, which costs are estimated at 6 trillion dollars in 5 years, is aimed at boosting consumption and investment activity. According to Keynesian ideas, in conditions of excess monetary supply (and hence, low sensitivity of investments to interest rates), fiscal stimulus of the economy works most efficiently. If tax cuts sufficiently "cover" the poor layers of the population, whose propensity to consume is higher, then we can speak about a very noticeable stimulating effect on consumer demand. Speaking about investments, the higher the rationality of the agent's expectations, the lower the effectiveness of state intervention in the economy. Firms and the financial market are agents with fairly rational expectations, so the effect of fiscal shock on the investment component is very controversial. The relationship at which the markets are now trying to speculate on is the accelerated pace of rate normalization in case of successful tax reform. Progress in this direction means a bullish signal for the dollar in the medium term. Positive feedback from the Republicans on Monday caused a sharp collapse of gold to $1,290. As a non-interest asset, the cost of its possession is expressed in the cost of borrowing of the US currency, so its price reflects the expectation of markets for future rate increases. Another candidate for the head of the Fed was John Taylor known for his "Taylor rule" in increasing the money supply. Trump held an interview with him, however, who will take the place of Yellen is not yet clear. His appointment to the post promises much higher interest rates in the future than the long-term target of 2.75% assumed by the current management. EU data The ECB's divergence from the Fed in reducing money supply again became the subject of speculation after release of economic sentiment and inflation in the euro area. In September, the price increase remained at the same level of 1.5%, the core indicator increased to 1.3% from 1.1%. Nevertheless, the ZEW survey in Germany indicated a decrease in confidence in the future for firms, the key figure did not meet expectations (17.6 with a forecast of 20 points). The EURUSD fell by 0.25%. Arthur Idiatulin
Long
by Tickmill
EURUSD - 4H - Range About To Be Broken?If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message! Underlying: EURUSD Time frame: 4H So looking at the 4H chart on EURUSD you will notice that price came and hit our pink trading zone at which point we wanted to take a buy position. It has now done and you should be long. Price is starting to get rejected from the zone. Also notice the 200MA and the 50MA, although they have crossed the 200MA is not actually in a downward trend, it is level. Because of this I am still expecting EURUSD to rally more.
Long
by SocialTrading
3
EURUSD - 4H Chart - RangeIf you like this idea and commentary leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) Underlying: EURUSD Time frame: 4H So looking at the 4 Hour chart it is now putting in a range. This range will break out over the coming week and I feel that this breakout will be to the upside. If the breakout occurs to the downside then you can look at the pink area, 1.1800 - 1.1720 as the support area. If price gets down into this pink zone it could be another possibility to buy. The MACD is also still fairly bullish and it does not look like it is going to move much lower.
by SocialTrading
6
Taranasus's EURUSD ShortPrice reached a new high in the last two years, just one day after the last new high. It is very far away from its short-term ascending support line, not to mention its long-term ascending support line. I expect it to at least fall to its temporary ascending support line which creates a good shorting opportunity. If by some miracle it decides to break this support line down to the next one, we're into some serious dalla dalla. There is a very small chance that it might get pushed higher again, that's why the stop-loss is quite high on this one, so patience is key!
Short
by taranasus
Dollar repairs its image as GDP boosts optimism The European currency failed to hold the gains of recent bullish momentum, which led EURUSD above 1.20, as investors suddenly began to buy dollars against the backdrop of uncompromising growth in the US economy. Markets have tried to distract from Trump and North Korea, especially since with Trump's mild reaction to the recent launch of the North Korean missile, the degree of uncertainty has dropped significantly. As noted before, the fundamental picture of the dollar pointed to its excessive oversold state, recently almost entirely due to speculative pressure. One of the strategists of Goldman Sachs on the fixed income market joined a group of analysts who pointed out in the interview that the dollar was undervalued because of the exaggerated political and geopolitical risks. Although the Fed is not able to bring inflation to a comfortable trajectory, investors have realized that the regulator can deliberately let the labor market overheat in order to understand where the Phillips curve will work again. Data on household expenditure and GDP exceeded expectations, with GDP growing 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, household spending 3.3%, which returns a version of a temporary slowdown in inflation. In addition, Janet Yellen did not give clear instructions regarding the December increase in Jackson Hole, preferring to get more data before setting expectations on the market. Investors also perceived the lack of hints for the weakness and the plight of the Fed, which is trying to smoothly remove the third rate hike from the agenda. The optimism about the US economy and the dollar balances the general confidence of investors in the ECB's September decision to roll out QE and makes the game less clear. Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.5%, the Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, leaving the forecast at 1.4% behind. This lays the foundation for the more aggressive rhetoric of the ECB on September 6, as well as subjectively adjusts the markets to the desired outcome. Draghi will definitely announce a reduction in QE in September, but the fate of the euro will depend on the scale of the reduction. It is worth remembering that in Jackson Hole Dragi said that the regulator will move in small steps and very slowly to keep the process, and hence inflation under control. To that, the excessive strengthening of the euro is not in the interest of the ECB, which was announced in the last protocol, so the turn will be carried out extremely gently. Comparing the growing bullish optimism about the US economy and the ECB's readiness for change, the level of 1.20 is likely to retain the status of resistance. The dollar strengthens pressure on its opponents from the major currencies, the GBPUSD lost 0.3% despite an unexpected improvement in consumer sentiment, which is likely to be attributed to the seasonal factor (ending of hot summer season). Currencies for carry trade such as USDZAR and USDRUB have not yet reacted positively to the US economy. USDRUB declined by 0.3%, but the likelihood of return to the upstream channel is high, given that the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin made an intervention, believing that reducing inflation allows you to cut the rate further. Given the above factors, it becomes possible to enter into convenient purchases for USDRUB. Arthur Idiatulin
Long
by Tickmill
EUR/USD Analysis for Week 28DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas". This week I tried taking a few trades on this pair and not with any good results. Didn't completely loose all my profits for the week but I came through only with .59% this week because of this pair. So here we go lets try and make sense off all this noise. To me EUR/USD seems to be one of the most volatile pairs, so making sense of it all will be a challenge I hope to conquer. Background: So I want to try and use the USD Index chart as a tool to help me see a bigger picture as to what the dollar is doing. What we see here is that the dollar has been dropping and has reached a support area from April 29th and May 2nd of 2016 of 92.53. The price retraced and hit resistance around 94.12 and keeps rejecting it on the daily chart. Daily: Ok so as we saw in the USDX chart the USD dropping means EUR/USD comes up. Euro gaining strength and Dollar weakening. But it seems to have peaked at 1.19103. 4hr: Lets take a look at the 4hr. Here we see a little better how the price has retraced after its peak at 1.19103. I've drawn a descending trendline showing its lower lows. But the important support level is at 1.16889. Where we see that this past week the price was unable to break. And also where I lost some money. The last move that the pair did was up to the trendline and to a resistance area I have drawn at 1.17723. So what I will look for this week is for the price to break out of that box between 1.16889 and 1.17723. I think thats about it for this pair. It's still hard for me to get my head around this pair seeings as how its high volatility but as I said its a pair I need to master.
by EdwardFabianRamirez