EURO-USD
EurUsd Weekly Bullish Break-out!!Last week the EurUsd clossed above the resistance and upper range! Stoch Rsi clearly shows a bullish cross over and Adx shows a bullish trend with trend strenght soon aproaching the very strong level.
The upcoming week theres a high chance we will see an attack and possible break of 1.10. If you look at my published ideas you also see that earlier I published a dollar index analysis which shows that the Dollar Index might break downwards from its range.
Some people will say the eurusd will close the gap. I say that if it was going to do that we already had seen it last week. The drop back below 1.09 on friday was very likely to be a correction from the gap and upwards trend since in the end of the day EurUsd went back towards 1.09 and close just 7 pips below it.
How to trade:
Buy the possible dips, use a 60 or 80 pip stop-loss. Monday is a banking holiday so that real action might start on tuesday
EURUSD 5th wave setupEURUSD looks to be in the process of completing a
so called 5th Elliot Wave. For this its important that
it will break to current resistance. When this happens
this 5th wave might go to 1.09 and possible beyond if
the upper range breaks.
Stoch Rsi shows strong buying pressure and Adx shows
that bullish trend is stronger then the bearish, however
the red line that indicates trend strenght still needs to
climb a bit further. If this black line goes above 25 and
indicates a strong bullish trend then a break-out of the
bollinger bands is highely likely.
Buy at current market price with a small position and be
ready to add more, or buy the dips
EURUSD Bearish Engulfing Week to Keep Downside Pressure IntactFor the better part of March, the EURUSD looked relatively bullish, particularly the March 27th close above the 1.0825 handle. The level dates back to 1999 and was responsible for the February 2nd bearish pin bar earlier this year.
Moreover, 1.0825 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2016 high at 1.1615 to the current 2017 low at 1.0340.
All of this means that the March 28th close at 1.0814 was a significant development. It signaled that the earlier bullish break of 1.0825 was false and that a move lower was likely.
Note that the high of the very next session (March 29th) was 1.0826. Sellers have been in control ever since.
From here any retest of the 1.0712 handle could present an opportunity to get short. Key support comes in at 1.0635. A daily close below that would pave the way for a retest of recent lows near 1.0520.
Adding to the likelihood of further losses is the large 260 pip bearish engulfing pattern from last week. The move is more than enough to keep my bearish bias for the single currency intact.
EURUSD Bulls Have a Steep Hill to ClimbThe EURUSD has enjoyed four positive weeks in a row since catching a bid at 1.0500. The pair continued its slow and steady rally last week with a Tuesday bounce from the 1.0712 support area.
However, sellers have yet to achieve a daily close above the 1.0825 handle. This is a level that dates all the way back to 1999, so a break here isn’t likely to come easy.
The 1.0825 level is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2016 high at 1.1615 to the current 2017 low at 1.0340.
As long as the pair trades below this area on a daily closing basis, my bias remains weighted to the downside. With that said, only a proper sell signal from resistance would be enough to get me off the sideline.
For now, the jury is still out on whether the EURUSD has carved out a four-month inverse head and shoulders pattern. For that to become a probability rather than a possibility, I’ll need to see a daily close above 1.0825.
EURUSD DAILY LEVEL REJECTIONEurUsd struggling to break 1.0815 making a triple top.
Much indecision in the EURO zone with the French elections.
An ending diagonal has been formed and what is most likely to happen is a break of the 1.0825 level to break all the stops, and then a massive drop of the institutional traders with the money in the market at the best price.
Sell limit at 1.0825 is a great option, but I will see what happens in the zone before shorting.
Trade carefully!!!!!!!!!!
Expecting one more impulsive intermediate wave downThere is still a large bigger downtrend on this pair's longer timeframes. I am expecting one more impulsive leg down to form a wave 5 in the wave pattern I currently see on this daily chart.
Price is as well currently inside a descending triangle, which increases the chance for a break down today or tomorrow since we are very close to it's apex.
If price would alternatively break up from the descending triangle, I am still short until at least the weekly dotted downward sloping (dark pink) trendline is broken.
The swaps on this pair is currently positive for selling, which favors holding shorts.
EURNZD FINALLY THE BIG IMPULS IS HEREI have been looking for this move, for a long long time. Finally we have the big boy impuls.
Look for a higher low around 1.48 thats where a good entry should form on lower timeframes.
I am looking to leave my positions for 1.72 and 2.000. These are my longterm targets on this pair.
Once this beast starts moving, it will be violent and fast. but right now we are still in the bottom forming phase. There are still some swings to be made before it goes higher.
Why i think the recent break the yearlong trendline is important ? Because even as stocks advanced in the recent weeks to multiple record highs. The EURNZD risk trade went the other way, and broke higher. We have a break of the correlation, which is for me a important momentum change and will result in higher prices in the coming months.
What environment can we expect for this to move higher to continue.
Two important fundamental themes should be realizing in my view!
1st. Rate hikes in the US. This theme is important because in the long run, stocks will be compelled to go lower, if interest rates start to go consistently higher. That point is why the EURNZD saw this appreciation last week. The US interest rates seem to be going higher and quicker than many thought.
2nd. Inflation in the eurozone. Currently its too early to say, but the inflation data is coming every month a little bit higher in the eurozone, and there seems to be something brewing which could lead to consistent higher inflation also looking at germany harmonized cpi is moving higher consistently. This could lead the ecb into tapering faster than thought, and a topic like this will support all the EUR pairs.