EURO-USD
GBPUSD - Brexit pendingWill be taking a long position on GBP/USD based on the following reasons:
- Bullish hammer candle on Weekly TF.
- Rejection of 0.786 fib
- Respected ascending trendline
You might be thinking that I am super crazy by taking this trade, especially with the referendum only a couple of days away, however I feel as though the UK will not be leaving the EU and this is purely my opinion. I am willing to take on a higher risk as the risk/reward ratio is a lot higher. I expect a 1500 pip move as a minimum, which would blow away some really key levels regardless of which way the vote goes.
If you are taking a similar trade and running the risk, ensure that your brokers either have a guaranteed stop loss or a NBP (negative balance protection) to ensure that you do not end up with a blown account.
Trade safe
EUR/USD in ever tightening range ahead of Greece Mark IIIThere may be trouble ahead...
Grexit is hiding in the shadows behind Brexit, but former Greek FinMin believes Grexit in 2016 is more likely than last July . Greece has a colossal amount of ECB debt obligations to meet in July. Negotiations and general turbulence look set to hit its peak in the month before, just as the Brexit vote is taking place.
But while theres moonlight and music, and love and romance...
Since 2015, EUR/USD has been rangebound between 1.05 and 1.16 (approx). Spot is trading close to the top of the range, and looks supported due to upward trend channel, and RSI trend higher and the 50W SMA sat snuggly below. A flattening of the 50 & 200W SMAs, and extended ranging in oversold territory of the slow stochastic, indicates a continuation of the status quo. Bare in mind that this is a weekly chart and there are still several hundred pips of juicy range to play within for now.
Lets face the music and dance...
In the longer term, I'd imagine that there are still some people who have been short EUR/USD from a long way down.
With Leave in the Brexit vote creeping into the lead, and the vote maybe influenced by the UK publics reactions to the handling of the Greek situation and any migrant/terrorist related chaos, it wouldn't surprise me if some people were taking money off the table, and readjusting positions ahead of June (Brexit vote) and July (Greek crisis), with a view to get short for a fresh push for parity again.
eur usd finally did something !!! eur usd finally give us something to do ! it breack down from the high of the long term range the pair have been stuck in for a long long time , for the moment as china news latedly as been better than expected but the next day , week will be imo very interesting as we will see how much the usd the corellated to china news ! so either very good play pull back sustain and we are a go to the back of the range around pullback not sustain and the long term range would be finally broken by the top wich would be interessing !
EURUSD: Watch out belowToday the EURUSD sunk through both the 20 day moving average and a supporting trend line going back to early March of this year. Adding to the bearish picture, we have multiple upside attempts over the last 10 days getting slapped back, the MACD crossing under, an RSI that's diving, and today's close below the highs and closes of the February and March 2016 peaks. Also, given that the pair has been tightly coiled up for about 10 sessions around the 1.14 level, the release of that potential energy could somewhat exaggerate the downside momentum. Perhaps we will finally see some USD strength to give those starving bulls something to chew on?
EURO/USD Monday Retracement Set UpPrice hit resistance at the top end of the 1.14 range where historically gains to the upside have been sort lived and unable to hold.
A retracement down to the 50% fib level where price will likely consolidate pending the FOMC minutes that'll shed a lot more light on the dovish tone set by Yellen last week is the likely outcome for Monday - Tuesday as bulls can correct price upwards afterwards.
LEARN TO TRADE THE GARTLEY PATTERN IN 5 EASY STEPSSTAGE 1:
THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG
A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside.
The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction.
The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A.
STAGE 2:
B LEG RETRACEMENT
Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg.
The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 61.80% and 78.60%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% retracement.
As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 61.80% retracement but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action touches the 78.60% retracement of the X to A move.
STAGE 3:
C LEG RETRACEMENT
Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg.
The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance.
STAGE 4:
D LEG COMPLETION
Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your B leg to your A leg.
You are looking for a 1.272% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Gartley pattern .
STAGE 5:
PLACING YOUR TARGETS
When looking to take targets on the bullish Gartley Pattern the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool.
With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%.
To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2.
KEY NOTES & RULES:
When trading the bullish Gartley pattern, the pattern is meant to be traded at 1.272% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion.
The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D.
Point B must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% from the X to A move.
Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
Point D is complete when price action touches the 1.272% retracement of the B to A move.
Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support.
Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1.
Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move.
Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move.
CURRENCY PAIR:
This pattern like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this before trading the pattern.
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DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
EUR/USD Yellen Speech PreviewAs it's a non farm week markets will historically trade sideways pending the release of Friday. The weekly close below the 61.80% fib indicates further downside gains with a rest of the 200EMA and 50% fib likely.
At this point it's likely price will break or correct at the 50% fib level towards the 76.4% or 38.2% fib levels where it will likely consolidate until Friday.
The news docket features several high impact US releases however on non farm weeks other news tends to have small-medium impact on price action so do expect breakouts on news releases followed by retracement(s) to the previous levels.
A farm rolls preview will follow on Thursday when a clearer picture of market sentiment is available.