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Euro

EURUSDEURUSD . Potential long opportunity. Our previous idea for EURUSD has been correct . We believe that EURUSD will continue to the upside after coming down to our PBA 1 (Pull Back Area) . Our entry is sitting at the pullback area at 1.11363 . Break above our PBA 2 would result in higher highs . Our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at 1.12300 . If price falls below our PBA 1 it would invalidate our trade idea. SL (Stop Loss) is set at the break of our PBA 1 at 1.11110 . PARAMETERS - Entry: 1.11363 - SL: 1.11110 - TP: 1.12300 KEY NOTES - EURUSD has fallen to our PBA 1. - DXY still weak. - Break above PBA 2 would confirm higher highs. - Break below PBA 1 would invalidate the trade idea. Happy trading! FxPocket
Long
by FxPocket
Euro can make movement up and then continue to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago entered to wedge, where it rebounded from the support line and rose to the resistance line, which is located in the support zone. After this, the price turned around from the resistance line made a correction to the support line, and then made an impulse up. Euro broke the 1.1010 level, after which it exited from the wedge and started to trades inside range. Inside range, EUR at once rose to the seller zone, but soon turned around and started to decline, making a fake breakout of the resistance level. In a short time later, the price tried to grow, but turned around and made a correction to the support level, after which made an upward impulse to the 1.1175 resistance level. Euro some time traded near this level and not a long time ago started to decline. Therefore I think that the price can make movement up and then continue to decline to the support level, which coincides with the bottom part of the range. For this case, I set my TP at 1.1010 support level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
10
EURUSDEURUSD . Potential long opportunity. This is an adaptive analysis! Our idea for EURUSD is a long after the price has fallen to our PBA (Pull Back Area). With DXY showing weakness we do believe that EURUSD could rise to our target 1.11674 . Our SL is set at 1.10751 . In second scenario , we could see EURUSD make a deeper pullback down to 1.10500 which could be the second entry . Targets remain the same while SL would sit around 1.10150 . PARAMETERS - Entry: 1.11057 - SL: 1.10751 - TP1: 1.11363 - TP 2: 1.11674 KEY NOTES - EURUSD has fallen to our PBA. - Adaptive analysis. - DXY showing weakness. - EURUSD may make a deeper pullback to 1.10500. Happy trading! FxPocket
Long
by FxPocket
EURHUF Short-term buy signal.The EURHUF pair is attempting to form a new short-term bottom just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and based on the previous two of August and July, is should take another week to do so. Buy once Friday's Low is re-tested and target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Triangle at 397.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Euro H4 | Range-bound tradingThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.1178 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 1.1215 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 1.1081 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EURUSD Sell opportunity on a Double Top.The EURUSD pair made a Double Top last week near the 1.12000 Resistance following the Fed Rate Decision (-0.50% cut) and technically this is the first sign of a potential medium-term sell opportunity. If we examine the price action on the 1D time-frame going back 2 years (November 2020), we can see a recurring pattern. When the 1D RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts a Lower Highs trend-line, a sell signal emerges, which is valid until the RSI approaches the 30.00 oversold level. This sell signal has so far emerged 2 times (February 02 2023 and December 28 2023) and both times the pull-back that followed hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first correction registered a -4.70% decline while the second a -4.00%. If this is a progressive pattern, then a potential new correction on the current RSI Lower Highs (Double Top for price) should be -3.30% (0.70 less than the previous), which as you can see on the chart falls exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, this isn't just a strong sell signal but also gives us a very reliable Target at 1.08350. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EUR/USD Reverses at Supply Level Amid German PMI WeaknessGermany’s Manufacturing PMI continued its decline, dropping to 40.3 in September, falling short of the forecast of 42.4. This latest figure signals ongoing weakness in Europe’s largest economy, as the manufacturing sector struggles with reduced demand and broader economic challenges. The PMI contraction adds further pressure to the already fragile outlook for the Eurozone, and it has contributed to the recent bearish moves in the EUR/USD pair. As anticipated in our recent analysis, the EUR/USD reacted sharply to the supply level around 1.11500, starting a reversal following the weak data. The currency pair’s behavior confirms the importance of this key resistance area, which has once again acted as a barrier to further gains. The reversal gained momentum as the Services PMI for the German economy also disappointed, falling to 50.6 in September, below the expected 51.0. The combined weakness in both manufacturing and services sectors signals a broader slowdown in the German economy, weighing on the Euro. Adding to the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in sentiment between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain largely long on the EUR/USD, reflecting optimism that the Euro will recover. However, "Smart Money" — large institutional traders — continue to hold a bearish position, suggesting that they expect further downside for the pair. This contrast in positioning underscores the potential for more weakness in the Euro, particularly if the economic data from Germany and the Eurozone continues to disappoint. As smart money maintains a bearish stance and the EUR/USD begins its reversal, traders should remain cautious of potential short-term rallies and focus on the broader downtrend that seems to be forming. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on future economic data releases and central bank decisions, as these will likely shape the next leg of the EUR/USD’s movement. For now, the pair appears set to continue its downward trend, with the 1.11500 supply level serving as a strong point of resistance. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Euro H4 | Falling to 61.8% Fibo supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.1071 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 1.1030 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 1.1184 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance area to $1.1100Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some time ago price made upward impulse from $1.1025 level and reached $1.1165 level, after which corrected. Then price entered to wedge, where it made a fake breakout of $1.1165 level and started to decline to support line of wedge. Euro reached support line, it bounced up, thereby exiting from wedge, and then rose to $1.1135 points. Next, price started to trades in another wedge, where it first declined to support area, where it reached support line. After this, price made a fake breakout of $1.1025 level and in a short time rose to $1.1165 and made a fake breakout again. Now, price trades very close to this level, and I think EUR can bounce down to $1.1100 from resistance area. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
1
HelenP. I Euro will enter to resistance zone and then start fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price reached the support zone, which coincided with the support level, and tried to break it, but failed and started to decline. Price declined to the trend line, after which started to move up inside the upward channel, where it at once rebounded from the trend line and rose to the resistance line of the channel, breaking the 1.0920 level. Next, the EUR some time traded near the support level and then made impulse up to the resistance line and even rose higher and some time traded then. Also, the price entered to resistance zone, but at once turned around and quickly backed to the upward channel, where it then fell to the trend line, which is the support line of the channel too. Then price broke this line, thereby exiting from the channel and breaking the trend line, after which continued to move up below this line. Just now, the EUR trades near the resistance level, so, in my mind, I think that EURUSD will enter to resistance zone. Then price can turn around and start to decline, therefore I set my goal at 1.1050 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
1
Euro can start to decline from resistance line of wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price entered to upward wedge, where it at once turned around from the support line and rebounded up to the 1.1000 support level, which coincided with the support area. After this movement, the EUR made a correction movement and then bounced up higher than the 1.1000 level, breaking it, but soon turned around and declined below. Then price started to grow and later reached the current support level, which coincided with one more support area. Soon, EUR broke this level and reached the resistance line of the wedge, but then it at once turned around and declined to the 1.1000 support level, breaking the 1.1140 level again. Also, the price reached the support line of the wedge again and after this, it turned around and bounced up to the 1.1140 level. This level price broke a not long time ago and at the moment it trades near the support area. In my opinion, the Euro can reach the resistance line of the wedge and then start to decline to the support line, breaking the support level. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.1065 points, which coincides with the support line of an upward wedge. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
6
FULL EURCHF ANALYSISHello my wonderful community ! I’m back again
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here. The colors for each line/zone Monthly - Yellow Weekly - Orange Daily - Green 4H - Red 1H - Purple My Monthly chart view: Ever since 2019, price has been in a downtrend by making Lower highs and Lower lows. Price keeps breaking major Support areas and turning them to dynamic resisitance areas and respects the EMA 14 anytime it makes a correction. From 2022 to mid 2024 , Take note as price is in a range and respecting the channel constructed between the Monthly Yellow lines. My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2022 until now. My Daily chart view:
Price is in a range like I said earlier as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe My 4H chart view:
As we move into the smaller timeframe of the 4H period, the market seems to be clearer
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times over the years )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum. To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup as price approaches the Demand zone after the break of the EMA 50 by the bulls and the the EMA 14 crossing over it also 
Take note of the MACD marked with red diagonal line as it is also a confluence I’m using to put the odds in my favor.
 My 1H chart view:
On the hourly and anything below this timeframe , I can choose to capitalize by scalping and looking for entries that is validated by my own trading style , I’m also going to use the Fibonacci tool to help my entry .
I will be back to review this trade and see how things go 
Avoid entry of any trade if they will be any major news that will affect price.
Long
by newschooltrader
EURNOK Confirmed sell signalThe EURNOK pair brutally followed our last buy signal (July 09, see chart below) and easily hit our Target: The pair has now established a clear peak formation within the +1 year Ascending Triangle pattern, similar to the tops of Nov - Dec 2023 and June 2023, and is ready to extend the Bullish Leg towards the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) again. The Sine Waves clearly show the frequency of those bottoms and as such, our Target is 11.3650. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
EURO - Price can bounce up from wedge, exiting from itHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price entered to rising channel, where it at once made a correction to support line and then continued to grow. In a short time, price rose to resistance line of channel, but at once bounced down, making a fake breakout of $1.1120 level. EUR exited from channel and started to trades inside wedge, where it broke $1.1050 level and fell to support line. Next, price made upward impulse, thereby breaking this level again and later EUR broke $1.1120 level too. Now, price trades near support area, and in my mind, it can fall to this area and then bounce up. After this, price will exit from wedge and continue to move up to $1.1180 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
Euro can reach resistance level and then rebound down to 1.1080Hello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to downward wedge, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line, which is located in the seller zone, and started to decline. In a short time price fell to the support line of the wedge, and then tried to grow, but failed and continued to decline to the buyer zone. In the buyer zone, EUR reached the support line of the wedge and at once rebounded up, thereby exiting from the wedge and breaking also 1.1035 level. Then price continued to grow until it reached the 1.1135 resistance level, which it even tried to break but failed and made correction to the support level, and even lower. Later EUR entered to another wedge, where it fell firstly to the support line and then started to grow. In an upward wedge, the Euro rose almost to a resistance level, thereby breaking the 1.1035 level. At the moment, I think that the price reach a resistance level and then rebound down, thereby exiting from the wedge. Also then, the Euro will continue to decline, therefore I set my TP at 1.1080 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
11
EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate ...EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate Decision As the first London session kicks off this morning, EUR/USD is maintaining its position above the 1.1120 level, with market participants eagerly awaiting today's Federal Funds Rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decision is set to dominate market sentiment, with investors and traders closely watching for any signs of policy shifts or forward guidance. Current Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, not much has changed since our previous analysis. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a significant divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on the pair, suggesting their optimism for further upside. However, "smart money," often represented by institutional traders, continues to take a bearish stance, positioning themselves for potential downside. This disparity in positioning further adds to the uncertainty surrounding EUR/USD’s near-term trajectory. As the pair trades within a daily supply zone, the potential for a bearish reversal remains on the table. The supply zone, which has acted as a resistance level, continues to cap any significant bullish advances, keeping the risk of a sharp pullback intact. Fed Decision: The Key Catalyst All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, which could serve as the key driver for the next move in EUR/USD. The Fed's decision on interest rates, along with its forward guidance, will likely dictate the pair's direction in the coming days. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel U.S. dollar strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any dovish signals might provide the pair with a fresh catalyst for breaking through the current resistance levels. For now, EUR/USD continues to hover above 1.1120, but the looming Fed decision may be the tipping point that decides whether the pair resumes its bullish momentum or succumbs to the bearish sentiment from institutional traders. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/GBP H4 | Potential bullish bounceEUR/GBP is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.8413 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 0.8390 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 0.8453 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
2
EURUSD Channel Down hitting its top. Sell opportunity.The EURUSD pair rebounded on Friday on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today the price is testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 3-week Channel Down pattern. This presents an strong sell opportunity on an excellent Risk/Reward ratio and the upside is limited to the top but the downside having much room to drop to the bottom of the Channel. The previous Bearish Legs declined by -1.41% and -1.56% respectively. As long as the price is closing below the top of the Channel Down, our target will be the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.09900 (-1.26% from the top, negative progression relative to the previous Bearish Legs). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial..EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial Fed Decision The EUR/USD pair began the week with positive momentum, hovering around the 1.1000 mark ahead of the London session on Monday. Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on the market later this week. The key question remains: will the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), or will it take a more aggressive approach and reduce rates by 50 bps? According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds are nearly split, with a 48.0% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The market's indecision reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next move as economic conditions remain mixed. While inflation data has shown signs of cooling, other indicators point to a resilient economy, leaving investors to speculate on the extent of monetary easing that may be announced. All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into the central bank's future stance on interest rates. Should Powell signal a more aggressive easing approach, it could weigh heavily on the US Dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD higher. Conversely, a more cautious outlook could lead to a stronger dollar, capping any further gains for the euro. From a technical perspective, the week begins with little change in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders are still overwhelmingly long on the euro. In fact, retailer positioning is at its highest point since August 2023, signaling a potential reversal opportunity for contrarian traders. As the EUR/USD approaches a key supply area, a retest could trigger a pullback, with the price poised to drop if the supply zone holds. Given the heavy retail interest in long positions, we are looking for a short setup in the EUR/USD. A pullback from the current levels, especially around the supply area, could offer an attractive opportunity for bears. With the market bracing for the Fed's policy decision and retail traders heavily invested in long positions, the coming days could provide pivotal moments for the EUR/USD pair. As the week unfolds, the Fed's policy signals will be key to determining the next directional move for the EUR/USD. For now, traders should remain cautious and watch for any shifts in sentiment as the market digests the Fed's decision and the FOMC press conference. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
2