Bitcoin Rejection at Resistance: Potential Drop to 94,825This BTC/USD 1-hour chart highlights a key resistance zone around 96,400, where price has tested and failed to break through. A rejection from this level suggests potential downside movement. If the price confirms rejection at resistance, a bearish move toward the target zone near 94,825 is likely. The overall setup indicates a possible short opportunity if resistance holds.
Resistance : Around 96,400 – 96,600
Target: 94,825
Euro
+200 pips Best Level to Short EURUSD from Resistance🔸Hello traders, let's review the H4 chart for EURUSD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in EURUSD.
🔸Premium prices at 0500/0535, below at 0225/0190. range highs 0470
and range lows set at 0250. trading near premium prices.
🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders: focus on short selling any rips/rallies or short sell at market price EURUSD is currently trading near premium levels and is almost maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +100 TP2 bears +200 pips final exit 0225 keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
ECB at a Crossroads Between Inflation Resurgence and Recession
The Eurozone CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5% (previous: 2.4%, consensus: 2.5%), fueling concerns over inflation. Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch emphasized the need for caution against excessive rate cuts without sufficient awareness of risks.
Meanwhile, Germany’s February Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 85.2 (previous: 85.2, consensus: 85.9), further exacerbating uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone economy.
After testing the resistance at 1.0530, EURUSD retreated below the EMA21. However, the price is still maintaining its bullish momentum above the ascending trendline. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0530, it could gain upward momentum toward 1.0630. Conversely, a break below 1.0455 and the trendline may lead to a further decline toward the support at 1.0400.
EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD.
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EURUSD Will it follow Trump's 1st Term??The EURUSD pair made a market bottom on January 13 2025 and in recent trade, it has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Interestingly enough, this is so far similar to the price action that preceded and followed Trump's 1st Term.
A 1D Death Cross took the market from the November 2016 elections to the January 2017 bottom. After a 1D RSI Double Top and Resistance rejection, the pair dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but recovered to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in end of March 2017 and initiate an aggressive Channel Up that peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 2016 High.
If EURUSD continues to replicate Trump's Year 1 of his 1st Term, it is possible to see the price reach 1.19000 by the end of 2025, although of course we can't rely solely on repetitive patterns, but have to go along macro reports and policies one at a time.
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Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E).
This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend.
Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure
Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines.
In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market.
The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios
In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Euro FX Futures (6E) details:
Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €125,000
Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract.
Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details:
Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract.
M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes.
Execution and Trade Management
Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move.
If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan.
Conclusion
Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
EURUSD’s zone of interest after German election Polls have now closed in Germany’s parliamentary elections.
Exit polls indicate Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has secured a clear victory, positioning him as Germany’s next chancellor.
The far-right AfD is projected to achieve its best result yet, currently in second place with 20.2%, nearly doubling its 2021 support. However, the Bundestag’s composition remains uncertain, and Merz has ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
Prolonged coalition talks could lead to a government divided on economic recovery and international policy, which could be bearish for the euro. With this in mind, the 61.8% to 50.0% Fibonacci zone could be an area of interest (to begin with at least), which coincides with flattening longer moving averages.
EUR/USD Breakout PotentialIt's been a grinding month of February so far but the big takeaway at this point for EUR/USD has been deductive in nature, and that's the fact that sellers haven't been able to break any fresh ground below the January low.
Early-Feb saw the threat of tariffs drive a spike-low in the pair, but that held above 1.0200, and then as the tariff threat seemed to recede a bit, EUR/USD pushed up to 1.0500 for two different tests of the big figure.
At this point bulls haven't exactly taken over matters, but the slow build of 'less bearish' can then lead into bullish breakouts.
In EUR/USD, the Fibonacci retracements produced by the 2021-2022 sell-off, and then the 61.8% bounce from that sell-off, continue to highlight important levels. The 1.0200 level is confluent with the 23.6% retracement of the longer-term move and the 61.8% retracement of the shorter-term move plotting within a single pip of each other.
The 50% mark of the shorter-term move from the 2022 low to the 2023 high (which was the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term move) is what helped to hold support last week, after showing as resistance the week before.
And sitting overhead is the 1.0611 level, which is confluent as this is the 38.2% retracement of the shorter-term move as well as the 38.2% retracement of the 2022-2023 move. If EUR/USD can push a breakout, that's the next major level of interest. - js
HelenP. I Euro can break resistance level and continue growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price broke through the support level, which aligned with the support zone, and then started to rise. Soon after, it reached the resistance level, which also coincided with a resistance zone, and even managed to break above it, attempting to push higher. However, the momentum faded, and the price reversed, beginning a decline. In a short time, it dropped below the 1.0470 level, breaking through it and forming a strong gap. The price continued to fall, moving below the 1.0315 support level and reaching the trend line. From there, it started to rise again, moving within an upward channel. Inside the channel, the Euro broke back above the 1.0315 level and climbed toward the resistance line. However, before making a fake breakout, it pulled back to the support level, briefly touching the trend line before continuing its upward movement within the channel. Later, the price reached the resistance zone, reversed, and made a small correction. After that, it attempted another move back toward the resistance zone, but recently, it has fallen below it and is now trading very close to this level. In my view, the price may drop to the trend line, which serves as the channel’s support, and then rebound higher, breaking above the resistance level. If that happens, I expect EURUSD to continue its upward movement, so I’ve set my goal at 1.0540. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURGBP 4H Channel Down topped. Drop expected.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since the February 12 High. Technically that pattern is similar to the Channel Down of late January, which saw an accelerated decline after it failed to break above the 4H MA50.
We expect the pattern to complete a similar -2.18% decline and target 0.81750.
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Euro may continue to rise inside wedge, after a small correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Analyzing the chart, we can see that the price initially climbed from the support line, which lies within the buyer zone, and quickly advanced to the resistance level, aligning with the seller zone. Following this movement, the price pulled back from the 1.0440 level and corrected down to the support line. It hovered around this level for a while before breaking through and dropping into the buyer zone, creating a gap. After that, the Euro began moving upward within a broadening wedge, but soon it retraced back to the support level again. From there, it rebounded and climbed to the resistance level, eventually breaking through and rising toward the upper boundary of the broadening wedge. However, at that point, the price reversed direction and started declining, quickly falling to the support line of the wedge and breaking the resistance level once again. Recently, the Euro bounced off this line and broke above the 1.0440 level again. Currently, it is trading within the seller zone, and I anticipate a correction toward the support line of the broadening wedge before the price resumes its upward movement. Given this outlook, my TP is set at 1.0540 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can break resistance level and rise to $1.0500Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price started to trades inside a triangle, bouncing from $1.0450 level and dropping to $1.0275 level.
After this, price bounced from this level and rose to resistance line of triangle and then started to decline.
Price fell to $1.0175 support line of triangle and then in a short time rose to resistance line and exited from this pattern.
Next, Euro started to trades another one triangle, where it reached $1.0530 points and then dropped.
Euro made a strong gap and later rose back to resistance line of triangle, but recently it fell below $1.0450 level.
Possibly, price can fall to support line and then bounce up to $1.0500 resistance line of triangle.
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U.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costsU.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costs—SMART MOVE?
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! U.S. companies are flipping dollar debt into euros—slashing borrowing costs 📈🔥. Cross-currency swaps are the hot ticket amid rate gaps. Let’s break it down! 🚀
(2/9) – SWAP SURGE
• Trend: Dollar bonds morph into euros 💥
• Why: Eurozone rates lag U.S. by ~200 points 📊
• Volume: $266B in Jan ‘25 swaps, up 7% YoY
Lower rates, big savings—companies pounce!
(3/9) – THE TRIGGER
• Fed: Holds steady—U.S. rates stay high 🌍
• ECB: Eases up—eurozone softens 🚗
• Trump Tariffs: Stir inflation fears—volatility spikes 🌟
Dollar strength pushes firms to euro deals!
(4/9) – HOW IT WORKS
• Swap: Trade dollar debt for euro payments 📈
• Gain: Cheaper interest, currency hedge
• Impact: Millions saved, euro cash flows shine
It’s a financial jujitsu move—clever stuff! 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Euro Flip: Stronger euro could zap savings ⚠️
• FX Losses: Hedging costs climb if dollar dips 🏛️
• Uncertainty: Fed vs. ECB—rate dance wobbles 📉
Smart bet, but not risk-free!
(6/9) – WHY NOW?
• Rate Gap: U.S. high, eurozone low—carry’s juicy 🌟
• Trump Effect: Tariffs fuel dollar power 🔍
• Global Ops: U.S. firms shield Europe earnings 🚦
Timing’s ripe—swaps are the shield!
(7/9) – MARKET VIBE
• Early ‘25: Swap restructures cash in 🌍
• Savings: redirected to debt, flexibility 📈
• Trend Watch: Grows if rate split holds
Companies adapt—financial acrobatics in action!
(8/9) – Dollar-to-euro swaps—what’s your take?
1️⃣ Bullish—Cost cuts win big.
2️⃣ Neutral—Works now, risks later.
3️⃣ Bearish—Euro rebound kills it.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
U.S. firms swap dollars for euros—saving millions as rates diverge 🌍🪙. Tariffs and Fed fuel the play, but euro risks lurk. Genius or gamble?
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war.
On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR).
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
Gold(XAUUSD Bullish Breakout with Upside Potential Towards 2,940This chart shows a bullish structure in gold (XAUUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe.
1. **Break of Structure (BOS)** – There was a BOS to the upside, confirming bullish momentum.
2. **Change of Character (ChoCH)** – Multiple ChoCH events indicate a shift in sentiment before the breakout.
3. **Liquidity & Equal Highs (EQH)** – A weak high is marked around 2,940, suggesting a possible liquidity grab.
4. **Demand Zone & Trendline Support** – The price rebounded from a key demand zone and trendline support, fueling the breakout.
5. **Current Price Action** – Gold is currently in a minor pullback around 2,911 after a strong bullish push. The next potential target is near the 2,940 resistance.
If the price holds above the 2,904–2,911 support zone, further upside is expected toward 2,940. A failure to hold could lead to a retest of lower demand zones.
EUR/USD: A Small Bearish Bias Emerges at the 1.0464 ZoneDespite the Euro recent appreciation since February 11—gaining more than 2% —a new bearish bias has appeared, triggering a minor downside correction.
The temporary strengthening of the U.S. dollar is occurring as markets await the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes scheduled for tomorrow.
Possible New Trend Formation
The recent upward movement in favor of the euro has created progressively higher lows since mid-January and early February. These higher lows suggest the potential formation of a new short-term uptrend.
However, the price is currently testing a key resistance zone. Until a new higher high is confirmed, it is too early to validate a sustained bullish bias in EUR/USD.
RSI Indicator
The RSI remains above the 50 level, indicating some bullish momentum.
However, its slope has started to decline as the price approaches resistance.
If this trend continues, bearish pressure from the last session may gain more relevance.
ADX Indicator
The ADX line remains below 20, signaling neutrality in most recent price movements.
This lack of a clear trend makes it difficult for EUR/USD to sustain the short-term uptrend.
If the ADX remains neutral in the coming sessions, price action is likely to remain sideways rather than forming a strong directional move.
Key Levels to Watch:
1.02373 – Distant Support: Lowest level in the past two months.
Persistent bearish pressure at this level could invalidate the developing bullish formation in the short term.
1.04646 – Current Resistance: Aligns with January’s high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
A break above this zone could confirm a continuation of the new uptrend forming in recent sessions.
1.05994 – Key Resistance: Coincides with the 100-period moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the bullish momentum pushes price toward this level, it would confirm a much stronger uptrend in EUR/USD.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
EUR/USD: Dollar Surges,Technical Indicators Point to ReversalThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing a clear downward trend today, retreating from Friday's brief rally that saw it briefly touch the 1.051 level. Currently hovering around 1.0448, the pair's weakness is fueled by a slightly resurgent US Dollar. Buoying the greenback are climbing US government yields; the 10-year Treasury note, for instance, has risen to 4.51%, an increase of 4 basis points. However, the positive sentiment pervading global stock markets is acting as a counterweight, tempering the USD's potential for significant gains.
Analyzing the technical landscape, the price action appears to be hitting a critical juncture. The current trading range is approaching a clearly defined resistance zone, which also presents as a supply area. Compellingly, insights gleaned from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveal that retail traders hold a significant long position within this area. This, combined with a potential bearish seasonal trend, adds further weight to the possibility of a downward reversal.
Based on this confluence of technical indicators, we are actively watching for a potential price reversal within the identified resistance zone. The interplay of market forces and trader positioning suggests a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the near term.
✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Euro can drop from seller zone to 1.0350 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can observe that the price was moving within a downward channel. After bouncing off the resistance line, it quickly dropped to the 1.0480 resistance level. It then broke below this level and continued to decline inside the channel until eventually breaking out and transitioning into a ranging phase. Within this range, the Euro dipped into the buyer zone, even slightly below it, before reversing and making a strong upward impulse toward the resistance level, briefly entering the seller zone. After that, the price dropped back into the range and soon made a sharp gap down, returning to the buyer zone. However, following this movement, the Euro started to rise again, climbing back to the 1.0480 resistance level in a short period and forming another gap in the process. The price even touched the seller zone before pulling back slightly and is now hovering near the 1.0480 level. Given this setup, I anticipate a rejection from the seller zone, leading to a decline. Based on this, my TP is set at 1.0350 within the range. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can break support level and drop to $1.0370 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it soon broke $1.0255 level and continued to grow.
Then it made a correction and after this continued to move up and soon reached $1.0490 level and broke it.
After this, Euro started to decline and exited from a channel, breaking $1.0490 level too, after which continued to fall.
Price made a strong gap and dropped to support line of wedge, after which started to grow and later made another gap.
Next, EUR bounced up from support line of wedge and in a short time rose to $1.0490 level and broke it.
Now, it trades close this level and I think it can break $1.0490 level and continue to decline to $1.0370
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Fed Talk Lifts Dollar, EUR/USD Under PressureEUR/USD hovers around 1.0455, while the dollar index rebounded to 107 on Tuesday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The recovery followed remarks from Federal Reserve officials signaling a pause in rate cuts to focus on inflation control. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested holding off on cuts unless inflation trends match 2024 levels, while Governor Michelle Bowman stressed the need for more evidence before easing policy. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also supported maintaining current rates amid economic strength.
Markets now await this week’s FOMC minutes for further rate guidance. Last week, the dollar weakened due to mixed US economic data and reduced tariff concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that currency manipulation is now a key factor in trade strategy.
Technically, resistance stands at 1.0515, with further barriers at 1.0600 and 1.0650. Support lies at 1.0350, followed by 1.0275 and 1.0220.
EURUSD About to turn bearish again on Double StructureThe EURUSD pair has been on a Bullish Leg since the February 09 Low and is approaching the January 27 High, which is its technical Resistance level. Technically, every such test has been rejected down to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci level but since we might be within a Channel Up, it is possible to see one last push to complete a +2.68% rise from the February 09 Low.
The 0.786 Fib then will fall below the Channel Up so to account for that technical miss of support, our Target will be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.03125.
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