EUR/USD Gains Momentum Ahead of US Core Retail Sales Data ReleasThe EUR/USD pair is trading higher on Tuesday, following a pullback to the support level at 1.06690, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing low. This support area has provided a strong foundation for the pair, allowing it to gain upward momentum.
Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US Retail Sales data, particularly the Core Retail Sales m/m figures, which are expected to be a significant catalyst for further movement in the EUR/USD pair. Positive data could push the pair even higher, as it would indicate stronger consumer spending in the US, potentially leading to a stronger US Dollar. However, any signs of weaker data could bolster the Euro further, as traders anticipate a less aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve.
Adding to the bullish outlook, there is a noticeable divergence on the H4 timeframe's stochastic indicator. Divergence occurs when the price movement of the currency pair contrasts with the indicator, often signaling a potential reversal or strengthening of the current trend. In this case, the stochastic divergence suggests that the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair could gain more traction.
Institutional traders also seem to be favoring the Euro over the US Dollar. Reports indicate a significant increase in long positions on the Euro, reflecting a broader sentiment shift among large market participants. This institutional support adds further credibility to the potential for continued upward movement in the EUR/USD pair.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is showing promising signs of a bullish continuation after rebounding from a key support level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. With the upcoming US Retail Sales data and technical indicators aligning in favor of the Euro, traders have a reason to anticipate further gains. The increased long positions by institutional traders further reinforce this positive outlook, suggesting that the pair could see sustained upward momentum in the near term.
Euro
EURO - Price can make small movement up and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to flat, where it at once bounced up to $1.0890 level from $1.0770 level.
Then it turned around and little declined, after which price some time traded in flat and then made upward impulse.
Price exited from flat, and then declined lower $1.0890 level, after which it tried to rise, but failed.
Euro made a fake breakout of $1.0890 level and continued to decline inside pennant, where it later broke $1.0770 level too.
At the moment, price rising near support line of pennant, and I think it can make small movement up first.
After this, Euro can bounce down, thereby exiting from pennant and continuing to fall to $1.0660
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Conflicted Euro Caught Between Hawkish Fed and Political IssuesThe Eurozone's currency, the Euro, finds itself in a precarious position, buffeted by two powerful forces: the tightening grip of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ever-present political turmoil within the European Union. Navigating this treacherous landscape presents a significant challenge for investors and traders alike.
The Fed Talks A Rising Tide Sinks All Boats
The primary driver of the Euro's woes is the aggressive monetary policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In response to surging inflation, the Fed has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes, making the U.S. dollar a more attractive proposition for investors. Higher interest rates in the U.S. entice investors to park their funds in dollar-denominated assets, leading to a stronger dollar. This, in turn, weakens the Euro through a simple principle: currency exchange rates operate on a relative basis. A stronger dollar makes the Euro comparatively less valuable.
The Fed's actions have a ripple effect across global financial markets. As the dollar strengthens, it attracts capital away from other currencies, including the Euro. This capital flight weakens the Euro's value and creates a vicious cycle. Additionally, a stronger dollar makes Eurozone exports more expensive on the global market, potentially dampening economic growth in the region.
European Internal Divisions Weigh Heavy
Adding to the Euro's woes are the ongoing political uncertainties within the European Union. The bloc faces several internal challenges, including:
• The Rise of Euroscepticism: Populist movements that question the benefits of European integration are gaining traction in some member states. This creates uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone and discourages investors from committing to the Euro.
• Disunity on Fiscal Policy: Member states often have differing government spending and taxation priorities. This can make it difficult for the European Central Bank (ECB), the Eurozone's central bank, to implement a cohesive monetary policy that benefits all members.
• The Ukraine War: The ongoing war in Ukraine has added a layer of economic and political instability to the region. The war's impact on energy prices and supply chains further dampens the Eurozone's economic prospects.
These internal divisions weaken the Euro's image as a stable and reliable currency. Investors are more likely to favor the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven during times of global uncertainty.
Steering Clear of the Dollar's Influence: Alternative Strategies
While the Euro's near-term outlook appears uncertain, traders looking to speculate on the currency should consider strategies that minimize the impact of the dollar's dominance. Here are some potential approaches:
• Focus on Eurozone Fundamentals: Analyze the economic health of individual Eurozone member states. Look for countries with strong economic fundamentals, such as low unemployment and healthy trade surpluses. Currencies of these countries may outperform the Euro itself.
• Play the Spread: Instead of directly trading the Euro against the dollar, consider trading it against other currencies within the Eurozone itself. This approach could benefit from internal economic disparities within the bloc.
• Focus on Long-Term Trends: The Eurozone, despite its challenges, remains a large and economically powerful region. Long-term investors may choose to hold the Euro based on their belief in the region's eventual economic recovery and political stability.
Conclusion: A Currency at a Crossroads
The Euro's current predicament highlights the complex interplay between global economic forces and regional political realities. While the dollar's strength and internal European divisions pose significant challenges, opportunities still exist for investors who can navigate these volatile conditions. By focusing on Eurozone fundamentals, exploring alternative trading strategies, and considering long-term trends, traders can potentially find success even as the Euro is in a conflicted battle.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 44 - EURNOK - (17th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURNOK, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
HelenP. I Euro can reach resistance level and break itHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price some time ago started to grow inside the upward channel, where it soon reached resistance 2, which coincided with the resistance zone and broke it. Next, EUR some time traded between this level, after which made a strong impulse down from the trend line to resistance 1, which coincided with one more resistance zone, thereby exiting from the upward channel. Some time later price reached the trend line again, broke it, and rose to 1.0850 points, but then it turned around and fell to this line and continued to decline later near this line. Soon price reached resistance 1, and a not long time ago broke this level, even fell lower trend line, breaking it too. But soon EURUSD turned around and started to grow, ss, just now price trades near resistance zone. I expect that the EURO will fall to the trend line and then continue to grow to the resistance level. When the price reaches this level it can break it, after which EUR makes retest and continues to move up, therefore I set my goal at 1.0770 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro can rebound up from buyer zone to resistance lineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago started to trades inside the upward channel, where it soon reached the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and broke it. After this, the Euro made a correction to the support line of the channel and then rebounded up and continued to move up inside the channel. Later, the price reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, but at once turned around and fell a little lower. After this movement, the price reached the 1.0885 level again and then fell almost to the support line of the upward channel. Next, the Euro rebounded up and rose to the seller zone, but soon turned around and dropped to the 1.0685 level, thereby breaking the resistance level and exiting from the channel. Also, the price formed a gap, after which rose to the resistance line and then fell to the support level. Not a long time ago EUR started to grow, so, in my opinion, the price can fall to the buyer zone, and then rebound up to the resistance line. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0780 points, which coincided with this line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can continue decline to $1.0630 in falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered to wedge, where it at once broke $1.0850 level and fell to support line of wedge.
Then price in a short time rose to resistance line, breaking $1.0850 level again, but soon it made downward impulse.
Price exited from wedge, broke $1.0850 level again, and fell to $1.0735 level, which coincided with resistance area.
After this, Euro bounced up to $1.0850 level, after which started to decline inside falling channel.
In channel, price fell lower $1.0735 level, thereby breaking it, and now EUR trades close to support line.
Possibly, price can rise to resistance area, after which Euro turn around and continue to fall to $1.0630 in channel.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EUR/USD Follows Bullish Path Post-CPI; Buy Limit Strategy FocusEUR/USD experienced a significant upward movement on Wednesday, driven by an overall increase in market risk appetite following the release of a cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. This positive sentiment was initially bolstered as the lower inflation figures suggested a potential easing of pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. However, the enthusiasm was tempered later in the day due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance reflected in its latest update to the dot plot of interest rate expectations. This update indicated a possibility of more rate hikes in the future than previously anticipated, which crimped market sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, the price action adhered closely to our earlier analysis. The EUR/USD pair achieved all the take-profit targets we had established beforehand. Post-FOMC meeting, the price action retraced the gains from the CPI-induced bullish impulse, creating a gap in the market. This gap, left by the rapid price movement following the CPI release, typically attracts market participants looking to "fill" it, as prices often return to these levels to establish more balanced trading conditions.
Given the current scenario, we are contemplating a strategic approach involving a potential buy limit order. This approach is based on the expectation that the price will return to cover the unfilled gap left by the CPI announcement. The buy limit order would allow us to enter the market at a more advantageous price point, capitalizing on the anticipated retracement. Additionally, the broader economic context and market sentiment will be closely monitored to adjust our strategy as needed, ensuring that our trading decisions are well-informed and responsive to ongoing developments.
In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown resilience and upward momentum, the mixed signals from recent economic data and Fed communications warrant a cautious yet opportunistic approach. By setting a buy limit order, we aim to leverage the expected price correction, positioning ourselves to benefit from subsequent bullish movements.
EUR/AUD H4 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementEUR/AUD has reacted off an overlap resistance and the bearish momentum could potentially cause it to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.6274 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.6346 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 1.6176 which is a swing-low support.
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EUR/USD Awaits Volatility Ahead of Key US Data and FOMC DecisionThe EUR/USD pair is currently oscillating within a narrow range of 1.0750 - 1.0722 during the Asian session on Wednesday, consolidating the losses accumulated over the past three days. This period of consolidation comes as traders adopt a cautious approach, awaiting significant economic events before committing to new directional bets.
Market Sentiment and Upcoming Economic Data
The subdued trading activity can be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Both events are expected to have a substantial impact on market volatility and could provide fresh momentum for the EUR/USD pair.
US Consumer Inflation Figures
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, particularly the Core CPI m/m, is a key indicator of inflation and is closely watched by market participants. The data release is expected to shed light on the current inflationary pressures within the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Strong inflation data could bolster expectations of a hawkish Fed, potentially supporting the US Dollar and putting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
FOMC Decision
In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another critical event on the horizon. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy actions. Traders will be particularly interested in any indications regarding the timing of interest rate hikes or tapering of asset purchases. A more hawkish stance could lead to increased demand for the US Dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair.
Technical Perspective
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a phase of consolidation. The price is hovering around the support level at 1.0722 and resistance at 1.0750. The market is awaiting the release of the Core CPI m/m and the FOMC decision to trigger the necessary volatility for a significant price movement. Given the current technical indicators and market sentiment, we are looking for a potential long impulse once the data is released.
In conclusion the EUR/USD pair remains in a tight range as traders await key economic data and the FOMC decision. The outcome of these events will likely determine the next directional move for the pair. From a technical perspective, we anticipate a bullish impulse following the release of the US inflation figures and the FOMC announcement, provided the data supports such a move. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and be ready to adjust their positions accordingly.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid Strong USD and Risk-AversionThe EUR/USD pair started the new week with a bearish gap, falling to its weakest level in a month below 1.0750. Despite technical indicators on the H4 timeframe suggesting oversold conditions, the Euro might struggle to stage a significant rebound given the current risk-averse market environment.
Market Overview
The US Dollar (USD) has gained strength following a robust jobs report last Friday, which forced EUR/USD to erase its weekly gains. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 272,000 in May, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 185,000 and April's increase of 165,000. This better-than-expected job growth has bolstered the USD, adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Technical Analysis
1. Oversold Conditions: The RSI indicator on the H4 timeframe points to oversold conditions, suggesting that the Euro might be due for a rebound. However, the current market sentiment is not supportive of a strong recovery.
2. Price Gap: The EUR/USD left a price gap between the 1.0780 and 1.0800 area. Market participants typically fill these gaps, indicating a potential upward movement to this range in the near term.
3. Fibonacci and RSI Divergence: The current price level is within a potential reversal zone based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the RSI shows a divergence, which could signal a forthcoming bullish correction.
Short-Term Outlook
Despite the bearish sentiment, our outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously optimistic in the short term due to the technical indicators. With no significant economic news expected until Wednesday, the pair may experience low volatility, allowing for potential consolidation or a mild recovery. The key area to watch is the price gap at 1.0780-1.0800, which might be filled soon.
Trading Strategy
Given the current setup, a long position could be considered around the current levels. The oversold RSI and the price gap provide a basis for expecting a short-term reversal. Traders should monitor the 1.0780-1.0800 area closely, as filling this gap could offer a decent opportunity for gains.
However, it's crucial to remain cautious and use appropriate risk management strategies, as the overall market sentiment remains risk-averse, and the strong USD could continue to exert pressure on the Euro.
HelenP. I Euro will reach trend line and then rebound downHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. A few moments ago price reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and even entered to this area, after which rebounded and made a strong impulse down to the trend line, breaking 1.0860 and 1.0730 levels. After this, EUR started to grow and in a short time rose to the support level, which coincided with the support zone, after which corrected the trend line and then rebounded up higher than the 1.0730 level, breaking it one more time. Then price made a retest and continued to move up to the resistance zone, and when the EUR reached this area, it some time traded near and later turned around and made an impulse down to the trend line. As well price formed a gap, after which broke the trend line and fell to the support level, but recently it turned around and started to move up. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will reach the trend line and then rebound down to the support level. After this, the price can break this level and continue to decline, therefore I set my goal at 1.0685 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EUR/USD Short Opportunity: Riding Downside MomentumThe EUR/USD pair is poised for a potential downside move as key technical and fundamental factors align. Here's my analysis:
Target Projection: With a clear break of 1.06, the EUR/USD could aim to take out the previous year's low, currently at 1.0450, and head straight for the level of 1.0377.
This breakdown suggests that sellers are gaining control and may drive the pair lower. This downside target aligns with the bearish momentum and could be achieved by the end of May or leading into June. Due to possible Eurozone interest rate cuts.
Short Positions: I've initiated short positions at 1.0802 and 1.0720 , anticipating the downward move. These positions provide an opportunity to capitalize on the expected decline in the EUR/USD pair.
Rising US Bond Yields: The forecasted rapid increase in US bond yields adds further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Higher yields attract capital flows into the US dollar, strengthening it against other currencies, including the euro.
Potential Interest Rate Hikes: Concerns over rising inflation data could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes later in the year. Such actions would likely support the US dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Entry: Consider adding to short positions on any retracements towards resistance levels, but maintain a focus on the downside bias.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above the recent swing high, 1.0813, or a key resistance level to manage risk effectively.
Take Profit: Target the projected downside level of 1.0377, but consider adjusting the target based on evolving market conditions and price action.
Euro can rebound up from buyer zone to 1.0800 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago started to grow inside the upward channel, where it first declined to the support line and then rebounded higher than the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, breaking it. Then the Euro reached the resistance line of the channel, after which made a correction movement to the support level and then continued to grow inside the channel. Later price reached a resistance level, which coincided with the resistance line of the channel with the seller zone, but at once turned around and fell to the support line of the upward channel. Soon, the Euro exited from the upward channel and fell to 1.0785 points, after which started to grow near the support line to the 1.0890 resistance level and even entered to seller zone. But later price turned around and made a strong impulse down to the 1.0725 support level, breaking the support line and also making recently gap. Now, the EUR trades near the support level, and I think that price can fall to the buyer zone, after which rebound up from this area. For this case, I set my target at 1.0800 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD The new Bearish Leg has started.On our last analysis EURUSD analysis (June 04, see chart below) we mentioned that it was a do-or-die moment for a rejection as it had marginally broken above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down:
As you can see the price did close all subsequent candles below the top and inside the pattern, hence confirming the rejection bias and that the downtrend was still intact. The last two strong bearish days, suggest that the new Bearish Leg has started, especially since yesterday's 1D candle closed below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in a month (since May 10).
Our Target remains 1.06040 (Support 1), which is still a 'good case scenario' for the bearish event as it is above the % drop of the weakest Bearish Leg, the one right before the current (at -3.45%). Ideally, we expect to see the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Resistance throughout the whole Leg.
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EURUSD, bulls change market balance.Hi friend. I think 1.0740 is a good price for long position with 1.0773 like a major bullish target. We have a situation very compaq with gold market. Slowly bearish accumulation growth and slowly bulls distribution without stable bulls volumes. So i thing - upward. Follow me.
Euro Slumps on Populist Surge: A Trader's Guide to Uncertainty
The European political landscape has just thrown a curveball at the financial markets. A recent poll indicating a rise in populist and eurosceptic parties has sent shockwaves through the system, triggering a significant drop in the euro. This newfound uncertainty presents both risks and opportunities for traders, demanding a strategic shift in approach.
The poll results paint a picture of a fractured Europe, with anxieties swirling about the future unity and stability of the European Union. Investors, understandably jittery, have reacted swiftly by pulling back on euro-denominated assets. This has resulted in a sharp decline in the euro's value against other major currencies. The coming days and weeks are likely to be marked by continued volatility in the eurozone, creating a complex environment for traders to navigate.
Adaptability is paramount in this climate. With the potential for further political escalation, the euro's depreciation could accelerate. In such a scenario, shorting the euro – essentially betting on its decline – could be a viable strategy. However, this is a tactic that requires meticulous planning and precise timing. Traders must carefully weigh the risks involved against the profit potential.
To make informed decisions, staying abreast of developments is crucial. Closely monitoring the political climate and key economic indicators that could influence the euro is essential. Real-time news updates, expert analysis, and access to reliable data sources are your weapons of choice in these turbulent waters. Additionally, implementing robust risk management techniques will be your safety net, protecting your investments from unforeseen market swings.
The current situation presents a unique opportunity for astute traders. By evaluating existing positions, considering the potential benefits of shorting the euro, and formulating a well-defined strategy, you can transform these challenges into opportunities. While the path ahead may be unclear, adopting the right approach can empower you to thrive in this volatile market.
By following these steps and leveraging our resources, you can transform uncertainty into an advantage and emerge from this market turbulence a winner.
EURO - Price can make small move up and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered to rising channel, where firstly it broke support level, which coincided with support area.
Then, in a short time, price rose higher than $1.0670 level, breaking it again and then made correction.
After this, EUR continued to move up in channel and reached $1.0790 level, which soon broke too and exited from channel.
Next, price started to trades in flat, where it reached two times top part and the last time in made downward impulse.
Price exited from flat and broke $1.0790 level, but recently it turned around and start to move up.
Possibly, Euro can rise to almost resistance level and then continue to decline to $1.0670 support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EURUSD - 1H SellThe EURUSD chart indicates a potential bearish movement. The recent price action suggests that the pair is experiencing a weakening of the bullish momentum. After reaching a recent peak, the price is showing signs of a downward trend, indicating a possible decline towards the highlighted support zone around 1.08400.
The price action around this level is crucial; if the support zone fails to hold, we could see a continuation of the downtrend. This setup aligns with the current market sentiment, pointing towards further selling pressure. Traders should watch for confirmations around the support zone to determine the next move.
European instability causing weakness in the euroAfter the EU Parliamentary elections, there is a rise of nationalism and protectionism among some individual EU states. The euro is feeling the heat, as EU stability is under threat.
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