EUR/GBP H4 | Potential bullish bounceEUR/GBP is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.8413 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 0.8390 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 0.8453 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Euro
EURUSD Channel Down hitting its top. Sell opportunity.The EURUSD pair rebounded on Friday on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today the price is testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 3-week Channel Down pattern. This presents an strong sell opportunity on an excellent Risk/Reward ratio and the upside is limited to the top but the downside having much room to drop to the bottom of the Channel.
The previous Bearish Legs declined by -1.41% and -1.56% respectively. As long as the price is closing below the top of the Channel Down, our target will be the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.09900 (-1.26% from the top, negative progression relative to the previous Bearish Legs).
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EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial..EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial Fed Decision
The EUR/USD pair began the week with positive momentum, hovering around the 1.1000 mark ahead of the London session on Monday. Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on the market later this week. The key question remains: will the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), or will it take a more aggressive approach and reduce rates by 50 bps?
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds are nearly split, with a 48.0% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The market's indecision reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next move as economic conditions remain mixed. While inflation data has shown signs of cooling, other indicators point to a resilient economy, leaving investors to speculate on the extent of monetary easing that may be announced.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into the central bank's future stance on interest rates. Should Powell signal a more aggressive easing approach, it could weigh heavily on the US Dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD higher. Conversely, a more cautious outlook could lead to a stronger dollar, capping any further gains for the euro.
From a technical perspective, the week begins with little change in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders are still overwhelmingly long on the euro. In fact, retailer positioning is at its highest point since August 2023, signaling a potential reversal opportunity for contrarian traders. As the EUR/USD approaches a key supply area, a retest could trigger a pullback, with the price poised to drop if the supply zone holds.
Given the heavy retail interest in long positions, we are looking for a short setup in the EUR/USD. A pullback from the current levels, especially around the supply area, could offer an attractive opportunity for bears. With the market bracing for the Fed's policy decision and retail traders heavily invested in long positions, the coming days could provide pivotal moments for the EUR/USD pair.
As the week unfolds, the Fed's policy signals will be key to determining the next directional move for the EUR/USD. For now, traders should remain cautious and watch for any shifts in sentiment as the market digests the Fed's decision and the FOMC press conference.
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Trading Idea: GBP/EUR Resistance BreakoutCurrent Resistance Level: GBP/EUR is currently facing a resistance level.
If the price breaks above this resistance, it could signal a potential bullish breakout.
Next Target: After the breakout, the next key resistance level becomes the target.
Bullish Pattern: There is also a potential bullish pattern forming, which could further support the breakout scenario.
A confirmed breakout above the first resistance could lead the price to rally toward the second resistance level.
Confirmation: Wait for a clear break and close above the current resistance, and a confirmation of the bullish pattern, to strengthen the breakout signal.
Risk Management: Consider placing a stop-loss below the previous support level to manage risk in case of a false breakout.
EUR/USD Bullish Setup: Anticipating a Bounce from Key SupportHello traders! Today, I’m analyzing the EUR/USD pair on the 1-hour time frame.
We’ve seen some strong movement recently, but right now, the price is approaching a critical support level. This level has held strong in the past, and based on my analysis, I believe we could see a bullish bounce from this zone.
Here’s what I’m looking at:
Support Level: The price is nearing support level, a key area where it has previously bounced. If the price retests this level and holds, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
Price Action Patterns: I’ll be watching closely for bullish reversal candlestick patterns, like a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern, to confirm the strength of the support. This would suggest buyers are stepping in, and the price could start to rise.
Momentum Check: I’ll keep an eye on the overall market momentum by observing the price movement around the support zone. A slowing down of the sell-off or a shift in momentum could further support the idea of a bounce.
Risk Management Strategy: To manage my risk, I’ll set a stop loss slightly below the support level to safeguard against any potential breakdown. For profit targets, I’m eyeing as the first goal, with room for more gains if the bullish momentum continues.
EURO - Price can little grow and then continue fall in channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price entered to wedge, where it at once bounced from resistance line and fell to support line.
Then price bounced up from this line and rose higher than $1.0900 level, after which reached resistance line of wedge.
Next, EUR corrected, after which continued to move up inside wedge and later price exited from this pattern.
After this, price entered to falling channel, where it at once rose higher than $1.1155 level, but soon broke it again.
Euro continued to decline inside falling channel until it reached support line, after which it recently bounced up.
Now, I think price can make a small movement up and then continue to decline to $1.0975 support line of channel.
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HelenP. I Euro will make small move up and drop to support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago, the price rebounded from the trend line and started to grow and later rose to the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Soon, EUR broke this level, made a retest and even little declined than the 1.1000 level, after which continued to move up to the resistance level. When the Euro rose to this level, which coincided with the resistance zone, the price broke it and some time traded higher than the resistance zone. After this, the price turned around and quickly declined to the trend line, breaking the 1.1135 level. Next, the price rebounded from the trend line and rose back to the 1.1135 resistance level, but when it reached this level it turned around and dropped to the support level, breaking the trend line. Not long time ago EUR turned around and in a short time rose back to the trend line, where it continues to trades very close. I expect that the EURUSD will make small movement up and then drop to the support level. That's why I set my goal at 1.1000 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EUR/USD Rallies Amid Weakening Dollar, Approaching Key SupplyOn Thursday, the EUR/USD saw a rally as the US Dollar (Greenback) weakened, providing support to the euro's upward momentum. However, despite this rally, the pair now enters a critical phase of rejection as it approaches a key supply area, which has previously acted as resistance. This supply zone could trigger a potential pullback in the coming sessions, especially as market participants weigh technical factors against broader economic conditions.
The release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data failed to significantly impact market movement, offering little fuel for volatility. Despite the softer inflation data, the overall market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. Speculation over potential rate cuts continues to dominate market sentiment, with traders looking for clearer signals as the central bank navigates its next steps in light of ongoing economic conditions.
From a technical perspective, nothing has fundamentally shifted in terms of the broader outlook for EUR/USD. The euro continues to benefit from dollar weakness, but key resistance levels—such as the approaching supply area—remain intact. A pullback at this level could signal the market’s hesitation to push higher without more significant changes in either economic data or Fed policy.
As the pair nears this important technical zone, traders should remain cautious. The fundamentals underpinning the current market environment haven't changed dramatically, and until there is a clearer shift in the macroeconomic landscape or central bank policy, the euro's recent gains may face hurdles. Nevertheless, with ongoing dollar softness and a Fed-centric market focus, the EUR/USD remains a pair to watch for further developments.
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Euro can rebound up from wedge to 1.1120 resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price rose inside the upward channel, where it reached the buyer zone, which coincided with the support level and some time traded in this area. Then, the price broke the 1.0830 level and soon reached the resistance line of the upward channel, after which turned around and in a short time declined to the support line of the channel and at once made impulse up, making a fake breakout of the 1.0830 support level. Next, the price continued to move up and later reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. After this, the price exited from the channel and broke even 1.1120 level, and then rose a little higher seller zone, but soon turned around and started to decline inside the wedge. In this pattern price broke the resistance level and declined to the support line, after which at once rebounded up to the 1.1120 level and then continued to decline. Now Euro trades near the support line of the wedge and in my opinion, it can rebound up from this line to the resistance level, thereby exiting from the wedge pattern. That's why my TP is located at the 1.1120 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Pre ECB Rates Decision Analysis12th September (ECB Rates Pending)
DXY: Climbing towards 102 resistance, could push higher if EUR weakens, needs to break 102.20 for further upside to 102.70
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6135 SL 20 TP 60 (Hesitation at 0.6110)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6685 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3030 SL 25 TP 60
EURUSD: Rates decision pending, straddle opportunity, Sell 1.0985 SL 20 TP 45
USDJPY: Sell 143.50 SL 50 TP 150
USDCHF: Buy 0.8585 SL 40 TP 80
USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 70
Gold: Needs to stay below 2520 for downside to 2500
EURCAD Sell continuation signalThe EURCAD pair is trading on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the 10-month Channel Up. The previous time we had a peak rejection like this, the pair declined by at least -3.88%. The similarities even between the 1D RSI fractals are obvious. Our Target is 1.46550.
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EURO - Price can break support level and fall to $1.0980 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to falling channel, where it at once rose to resistance line and then continued to fall.
In a short time, price declined to $1.1135 level, broke it, and then fell to support line, which coincided with $1.1040 level.
Next, price bounced and tried to grow, but soon fell to support area, after which continued to move up.
EUR rose to resistance level, which coincided with resistance line of channel, and made downward impulse.
Price fell lower than $1.1040 level, breaking it and some time traded in support area, but recently EUR broke it again.
Now, I think price can make small movement up and then fall to $1.0980 support line of channel, breaking support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EURUSD: Channel Down expected to bottom & give a buy opportunityEURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 33.975, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 38.295) as the 2 week Channel Down is on a bearish wave under the 4H MA50 and just over the 4H MA200. Technically this is already LL region but the bottom might take a while to form, as August 29th - Sep 3rd did, grinding inside a Rectangle. Testing the 1D MA50 inside a new Rectangle potentially, could make an ideal technical bottom. We will target the 0.618 Fibonacci level following that (TP = 1.10850), same as the September 6th LH.
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EUR/AUD H4 | Falling to overlap supportEUR/AUD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.6516 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.6383 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 1.6706 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURO - Price can make small move up and then bounce down in flatHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded between $1.1120 level, which coincided with resistance area and later made upward impulse.
After this, EUR started to decline inside falling channel, where it fell lower $1.1120 level, breaking it.
Next, price exited from channel and started to trades in flat, where it fell to bottom part and even made a fake breakout.
Then Euro turned around and in a short time rose to the top part of flat, which coincided with resistance level.
But a not long time ago price bounced down and I think that EUR can make a small move up and then fall to $1.1045 level.
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Bearish Momentum on EUR/USD (1H) Analysis: On the EUR/USD 1-hour time frame, we can observe bearish momentum. Price has been steadily declining, forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are currently in control.
We are approaching a potential support zone , which has acted as support in the past. If the price holds at this level, we could see a bounce or consolidation. However, if this level is broken, we may be looking at further downside targets .
EURAUD: Confirmed CHoCH & Bullish Outlook 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
I see a confirmed Change of Character on EURAUD on a daily.
Trading in a global bullish trend, the market successfully violated
a minor bearish trend, breaking a significant horizontal resistance.
The market will most likely go higher.
Next resistance - 1.669
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Euro will rise almost to resistance line and then continue fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to upward channel, where it at once made a first gap and then broke the 1.0780 level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Then price rose to the resistance line of the channel, making a second gap, after which turned around and in a short time declined to the support level, which coincided with the support line of the channel. After this movement, the Euro rebounded and continued to move up inside the channel, until it reached a resistance level. Price broke this level, which coincided with the seller zone, and then exited from the channel also, but when it reached the resistance line, EUR turned around and started to decline. Soon, the price broke the 1.1135 level and continued to decline, but recently price rose to this level, after which rebounded and continued to fall. Now, I think that the Euro can little rise, maybe almost to the resistance line, and then continue to decline next. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0920 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD - 4H Bearish PhaseEUR/USD recently reached a key daily resistance zone, facing a strong rejection from that level, signaling potential further downside. The pair also lost the critical support zone below 1.11, consolidating under it for the past week. After this consolidation, EUR/USD has completed a pullback to the critical zone, making it technically ready to fall further. This structure offers a solid opportunity for short positions, with a clear rejection from both the daily resistance and the pullback to the previous support-turned-resistance.
Fundamentally, the U.S. Dollar has been gaining strength due to rising expectations of continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In contrast, the Euro has weakened amid concerning Eurozone data, reflecting slowing growth and economic challenges. The divergence between the two currencies supports further bearish movement for EUR/USD, especially as the Dollar Index continues to rise.
As you can see in the chart, we previously shared a sell position at the 1.1117–1.1122 range. Now, with the technical and fundamental backdrop confirming further downside, this is a good opportunity to sell EUR/USD again, targeting further drops as market conditions remain favorable for the U.S. Dollar.