EUR/USD Dips Amid U.S.-EU Trade TensionsEUR/USD is slightly down, hovering near 1.0915 in early Asian trading. The Euro faces pressure from rising U.S.-EU trade tensions after Trump announced new tariffs on European goods. Washington imposed duties on steel and aluminum, prompting Brussels to prepare countermeasures, while Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wine and spirits, adding downside risks for the Euro.
However, losses may be limited by Germany’s fiscal policy shifts. The Green Party supports debt restructuring, and incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed a €500 billion infrastructure fund with borrowing rule adjustments. The measures expected to be passed this week could support the Euro.
Weak U.S. Retail Sales data also weigh on the Dollar. February sales rose just 0.2% vs. the expected 0.7%, while January’s figures were revised lower to -1.2%. Annual sales growth slowed to 3.1% from 3.9%, fueling concerns about consumer spending and offering near-term support for EUR/USD.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0880, with further levels at 1.0800 and 1.0730.
Euro
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 18, 2025 EURUSDThe escalating trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods by US President Donald Trump is having a negative impact on the Euro (EUR).
The US has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, the EU has drawn up plans to retaliate, and Trump has promised to impose retaliatory 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits. Any signs of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and EU could put pressure on the euro.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has agreed to a €500bn infrastructure fund and radical changes to borrowing rules, or stretching the so-called ‘debt brake’. That should ensure the package is approved in Germany's lower house of parliament on Tuesday and in the upper house on Friday. This, in turn, could boost the common currency against the US dollar (USD) in the near term.
In addition, weaker-than-expected US retail sales data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. This report could put pressure on the USD and serve as a tailwind for the major pair. US retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, compared to a 1.2% drop (revised from -0.9%) in January, the US Census Bureau reported on Monday. The figure was weaker than market expectations, which had expected a 0.7% rise. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 3.1% compared to 3.9% (revised from 4.2%) previously.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.0920, SL 1.0840, TP 1.1040
EURUSD: Decision TimeEURUSD is currently trading at 1.09250, showing notable strength in recent sessions. The pair has been climbing higher, largely due to a weaker US dollar influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as recent tariff news impacting certain goods. This has put bearish pressure on the dollar, supporting the euro’s rise. However, the pair is now approaching a key resistance level around 1.0940, a level where price has historically faced rejection, suggesting potential selling interest that could pause or reverse the upward move.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 1.0940
Support: 1.0872
The short-term trend appears bullish, as the price remains above the 50-period moving average, a common indicator of momentum. Yet, with the RSI nearing overbought territory, the uptrend might be losing steam, hinting at a possible pullback or period of consolidation. Market volatility is currently low at 0.51%, which reflects a calm environment, often a sign that a breakout (up or down) could be brewing. Traders should keep an eye on the 1.0940 resistance for clues: a strong break above could signal more gains, while a rejection might send the price back toward support at 1.0872.
Trading Ideas:
Bullish Scenario: If EURUSD breaks above 1.0940 with solid volume and momentum, it could target higher levels like 1.1000. Consider entering a buy position on a confirmed breakout, with a stop-loss below the breakout point (e.g., 1.0910) to manage risk.
Pullback Opportunity: A rejection at 1.0940 could see the price drop to 1.0872 or lower. This might offer a chance to buy at support, with a stop-loss below 1.0872 to protect against a deeper decline.
Bearish Scenario: If sellers take control and push the price below 1.0872, it could signal a short-term trend shift. Shorts might target lower levels, with a stop-loss above 1.0872 to limit exposure.
Risk management is critical here, always use stop-loss orders tailored to your strategy. For longs, place stops below recent swing lows (like 1.0872 or lower), and for shorts, above recent swing highs (like 1.0940). The market can shift quickly, so stay adaptable and monitor price action closely for confirmation of your chosen setup.
EURUSD Head and Shoulders triggering a sell.The EURUSD pair is about to complete a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and so far it is keeping the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) intact. The last H&S formation we saw was completed on January 30 and it resulted in a -3.06% drop.
Given that the longer term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone with the H&S being on its top and the 4H RSI displaying the same Bearish Divergence it did in late January, we expect a similar pull-back to occur. Our Target is 1.06150, representing both a potential -3.06% drop and a contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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HelenP. I Euro may fall to trend line and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price traded near Support 2, which coincided with the support zone, before breaking this level and dropping to the trend line. Upon reaching the trend line, EUR turned around and started to rise. In a short time, the price climbed back to Support 2, broke it, and then made a retest. After this movement, EUR continued moving up and eventually reached Support 1, which also aligned with another support zone. The price traded within this area for some time before breaking Support 1 and then started trading near this level. Later, the Euro rebounded from this area and attempted to push higher but failed, leading to a decline. It quickly dropped to the support level, and more recently, the price even reached the trend line before bouncing back up. At this point, I expect EURUSD to correct toward the trend line before continuing its upward movement. Based on this scenario, my gaol is set at 1.1050 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Faces Resistance zone – Will Bears Take Over?The EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) has reached the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916) as I expected in my previous post . Can the EURUSD break the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916) ?
EURUSD is moving near the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916) , the Resistance line , and Yearly Resistance(1) .
According to the Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD seems to have completed 5 impulse waves and we can expect Corrective Waves .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect the EURUSD to decline to at least the Support zone($1.0817-$1.0760) in the coming hours after breaking the lower line of the ascending channel . One of the EURUSD targets could be as wide as the ascending channel .
Note: If EURUSD breaks the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916), we can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Euro can decline to support area, after which it will rebound upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By analyzing this chart, we can see that the price entered a range before dropping into the buyer zone, which aligned with the lower boundary of the range. After that, it reversed and started to rise, eventually reaching the upper boundary of the range, which coincided with the 1.0515 support level and support area. The price then immediately turned around and fell below but soon bounced back to the support area, consolidating there for a while before breaking lower. Following this, the Euro reversed direction and began to climb, soon reaching the upper boundary of the range and breaking out of this pattern, surpassing the 1.0515 level as well. After this move, it continued to rise within a wedge pattern, eventually reaching the 1.0775 support level, which aligned with another support area, and broke through it too. The price then touched the resistance line of the wedge and made a corrective move toward the support line of the pattern. In my view, the Euro could enter the support area before rebounding toward the resistance line of the wedge. Based on this, I set my TP at 1.1000, as it aligns with this resistance level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can rise a little and then fall to support areaHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, the price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it firstly broke $1.0365 level and then reached resistance line.
After this, Euro declined to support line of channel, making a gap, after which, in a short time, it rose to $1.0365 level.
Price some time traded near this level and then continued to grow inside a rising channel, but later it corrected.
Then Euro made strong upward impulse, thereby exiting from rising channel and soon broke $1.0765 level.
Next, price made a retest and continued to move up, so, I think Euro can make a small movement up.
Also, then I expect that Euro may start to decline to $1.0730 support area, breaking support level.
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EUR-AUD Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD is trading in an
Uptrend and we are now
Seeing a nice bullish reaction
From the horizontal support
Of 1.7153 which reinforces our
Bullish bias and we will be
Expecting the pair grow more
With the target of 1.7417
Buy!
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Euro Weakens Against USD Ahead of Key Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair declined to around 1.0835 during Friday’s Asian session, as the Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union. Later in the day, market focus will shift to key economic releases, including Germany’s February Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
EUROUSD 4H LONG (ALL Targets DONE)This position worked perfectly.
Now it is important to wait for the correction structure, as it was indicated in the previous update post:
Considering the current formations on the 1D TF, the probability of price growth to the current maximum increases multiple times. Locally, I expect to see a price correction (a rollback next week) and preferably with a depiction of a bullish imbalance. After which, you can work long for a whole month until 1.12758
EURCHF 1D Golden Cross for one final push.The EURCHF pair has been trading within a 2.5-year Channel Down pattern and is currently on the latest Bullish Leg that is about to complete a 1D Golden Cross. The last Golden Cross was also during the previous Bullish Leg and caused an initial pull-back that was followed by the pricing of the Channel's Top on the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
As a result, be ready to buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact and target 0.97500 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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EUR/USD Drops, Awaits US PPIEUR/USD fell to around 1.0880 in Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by rising US-EU trade tensions. Market focus is on key US data, including February’s PPI and weekly jobless claims.
Trump warned of retaliation against the EU’s response to his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs. The European Commission announced €26 billion ($28.4 billion) in counter-tariffs on US goods, effective April 1, with more expected mid-April.
Despite trade risks, EUR/USD’s downside may be limited as concerns over Trump’s policies fueling a US recession weigh on the dollar. Inflation data came in lower than expected, easing market fears but keeping sentiment fragile.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
EURUSD: Trump’s trade war crosses the Atlantic You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities.
And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic
Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's recent increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Targeted products include Harley-Davidsons, bourbon, and jeans—key American exports that have been caught in previous trade disputes.
The EU has said it remains open to negotiation but has not ruled out further action.
In response, Trump vowed to retaliate, stating, “Of course I’m going to respond.” The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows the pair could fall into a larger corrective decline, given overbought RSI conditions.
Eurozone Spending Plans Boost EuroThe euro surged past $1.09, its highest in four months, gaining 5% since early March. This rally was driven by Eurozone plans to expand deficit spending, stimulating growth prospects. Germany pushed for a €500 billion infrastructure fund, while France and Italy supported joint EU funding for economic and military initiatives.
The ECB signaled a shift toward a less restrictive policy after last week’s rate cut, suggesting the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, US economic concerns pressured the dollar, further lifting the euro.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
EUR/USD – Bullish, But Time to Breathe!🚀 EUR/USD – Bullish, But Time to Breathe! 🚀
“Momentum is strong, but even the best trends need to take a breath before the next leg up.”
🔥 Key Insights:
✅ Bullish Structure Intact – No reason to fight the trend.
✅ Overextended Move – Markets don’t go up in a straight line; pullbacks create better entries.
✅ Healthy Retracement = Stronger Continuation – Chasing here is risky, waiting for a dip is smart.
💡 The Plan:
Wait for a Pullback Before Longs – Let price reset, don’t rush in.
Watch Volume Profile & CDV for Buyer Confirmation – Smart money leaves clues.
Ideal Entry = Lower Support Levels Holding – We want a strong base for the next move up.
“Patience is key. Let the market give you the perfect entry—not every green candle is a buy!” 🚀💶
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Eur/Usd (Mar/12) Weekly Analyzehello everyone.
a you can see price touched weekly cloud res ( same as monthly cloud ) so i expect price go down from here.
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( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
EURUSD’s Pullback in Play: Next Stop $1.0934?The EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) has managed to break through the Resistance zone($1.0817-$1.0760) and has been on a good upward trend with good momentum in the past week.
The EURUSD appears to be completing a pullback to the Resistance zone (broken) .
According to the Elliott Wave theory , the EURUSD appears to have completed wave 4 , which is a Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect EURUSD to rise to the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916) after completing the pullbac k.
Note: If EURUSD goes below $1.0755, we can expect more dumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
EURUSD entering multiyear Sell Zone, but might go to 1.160 firstEURUSD hit this week its 1month MA50 for the first time since October 2024. This is the first long term Sell Zone for the pair.
The 1month MA50 - MA100 Zone has formed the last two major peaks of the market (September 2024 and July 2023), so it is highly likely to see a top getting formed here in March-April.
Since however the 10year pattern is a Channel Down and the major bullish wave in 2017 was +21.67%, there is a possibility to see an overextension of the trend a little higher than the 1month MA100.
A max +21.67% rise would take the price a little over 1.1600, which would approach the 1month MA200 (10year Resistance).
This scenario is also supported by the 1month RSI, which during this 10 year span has topped twice at 665.00 and as you see makes a very distinct (nearly) Double Top formation.
In both cases, long term traders/ investors may target below parity prices at around 0.9000.
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EurUsd ShortEUR/USD Short Idea
The EUR/USD pair is approaching the 1.09700--1.09940--1.10204 resistance level, which aligns with a significant supply zone and a potential area for bearish reversal.
Key Analysis:
Resistance Zone:
The 1.09700--1.09940--1.10204 levels marks a critical resistance where selling pressure has previously emerged.
Technical Indicators:
RSI is approaching overbought conditions, indicating limited upside potential.
Bearish divergence may form if momentum weakens near this level.
Fundamental Context:
A stronger USD due to hawkish Fed sentiment or economic data could pressure EUR/USD downward.
Eurozone economic uncertainties may add to bearish bias.
Entry: Short positions around 1.09700--1.09940--1.10204
This setup offers a favorable risk-reward opportunity in a high-probability reversal zone.