Euro can make downward impulse to 1.0875 level from pennantHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, and in a short time rose to the resistance level. Then the price started to decline in a downward channel, where the EUR declined to 1.0725 points, thereby breaking the 1.0875 level. After this, the price rebounded from the support line and in a short time rose back to the 1.0875 level, exiting from the channel. Later price broke the support level and continued to move up to the 1.1010 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. But firstly, the Euro rebounded and corrected, after which it made a strong upward impulse to the resistance line, thereby forming an upward pennant pattern and breaking the resistance level. Then price bounced from this line and soon declined to the support line, breaking the 1.1010 level one more time. And now, the price continues to trades very close to this line, and possibly Euro can bounce from the support line to the resistance line and then make an impulse down to the support level, thereby exiting from the pennant pattern. So, that's why I set my target at the 1.0875 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Euro
EUR/USD: Riding the Bullish Wave Amidst Market ShufflesEUR/USD: Riding the Bullish Wave Amidst Market Shuffles
The EUR/USD pair continues its bullish trajectory, reinforcing the outlook from our previous analysis. After a brief consolidation in a range area with a minor setback, the market has opened with a fresh bullish impulse for the EUR. This surge aligns harmoniously with the retest of the 200 Moving Average and the pivotal 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci area. Notably, the price has left behind the oversold RSI condition, signaling its readiness to grow. Our forecast remains bullish, anticipating the creation of new higher highs.
In tandem with these technical movements, the US economic docket for Wednesday lacks high-impact data releases. Instead, market participants will be closely monitoring the 10-year US Treasury note auction. Following a decline from 4.61% in October to 4.5% and 4.29% in November and December, respectively, the upcoming auction holds significance. Should the high-yield fall below 4% in the January auction, the USD may face renewed bearish pressure, potentially aiding EUR/USD in gaining traction. The stage is set for an intriguing interplay between market dynamics and economic indicators.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0770 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
EURJPY H4 | Rising into resistanceEUR/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 159.950
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level
Stop Loss: 160.595
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level
Take Profit: 158.874
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
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EURO - Price can exit from triangle and continue to move upHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to grow in a rising channel, where it broke the resistance level, which coincided with resistance area.
But when EUR rose to resistance line of channel, it bounced and started to decline to $1.1010 level, exiting from channel.
Also, price entered to triangle, where it broke $1.1010 level and fell to support area, which coincided with support level.
Next, Euro some time traded near this level and a not long time ago price bounced up from $1.0920 support level to resistance line.
At the moment, Euro trades very close to this line and I think that price can break this line and continue to move up to $1.1010
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EURCAD H4 | Approaching resistanceEUR/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.46900 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.47320 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.46145 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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EUR/USD: Navigating Challenges and Anticipating Bullish MomentumEUR/USD: Navigating Challenges and Anticipating Bullish Momentum in 2024
EUR/USD encountered a week of fluctuating fortunes, managing to recover from daily losses after briefly slipping below the critical support level of 1.0875 on Friday. Despite closing the first week of 2024 in negative territory, the pair's near-term technical outlook presents an intriguing puzzle for investors. With a lack of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, attention shifts to risk perception and market sentiment as key drivers in the coming weeks.
Technical Analysis and Accumulation Range:
The current price dynamics align with our earlier technical analysis, placing EUR/USD in an accumulation range just above the 200 moving average. However, a broader view, especially in the H4 timeframe, reveals a bullish trend within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area. This higher timeframe perspective sets the stage for potential bullish impulses, aiming to establish new higher highs.
Mixed US Macroeconomic Data:
The US experienced mixed macroeconomic data releases, contributing to wild fluctuations in EUR/USD during the American session on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls for December surpassed market expectations, rising by 216,000. Despite this positive figure, downward revisions to November and October prints curtailed the USD rally. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7%, but concerns emerged as the Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 62.5% in December from 62.8%. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI declined to 50.6 from 52.7 in November, signaling a loss of momentum in the service sector's business growth.
Anticipating Bullish Continuation:
In light of the technical setup and mixed macroeconomic signals, our outlook for EUR/USD leans towards a bullish continuation. The accumulation range and the bullish trend within the Fibonacci area provide a foundation for potential upward movements. As market participants navigate evolving global dynamics and economic indicators, the anticipation of a bullish resurgence in EUR/USD becomes a focal point for traders eyeing strategic opportunities in the currency market.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0770 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
HelenP. I Euro can reach resistance level and try to break itHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago price reached the support zone and then rebounded down to the trend line. After this, the Euro started to move up in an upward channel, where it rose to the support level and soon broke it, but at once fell back to the support zone. Then price finally broke this level and then made impulse up to the resistance line of the channel, which coincided with the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. After this movement, the EUR rebounded from the 1.1000 resistance level and made a correction movement to the 1.0720 support level, which coincided with the support and trend line. Next, the price at once rebounded from this level and in a short time grew to the resistance level again and broke it. After this, the Euro tried to rise higher, but failed and a not long time ago declined below the 1.1000 level, thereby breaking it one more time. Now, the price trades near this level and I think that the Euro will rise toresistance level, and then make a little movement down. After this, the price can break this level and then continue to move up in an upward channel. Therefore I set my target at the 1.1130 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD The 1D MA50 is the difference between bullish and bearishThe EURUSD pair gave us the best possible sell signal on our December 28 2023 idea (see chart below) as we sold exactly at the top, provided by the overbought 1D RSI:
We now shift our focus from the long-term to the medium-term as the price reached the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up and is consolidating around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and within exactly the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as Support.
The 4H RSI has printed an identical pattern with the December 08 -11 Higher Low formation and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we are taking a short-term buy towards Resistance 1 at 1.11300. If the 1D MA50 breaks (candle closing below it), we will quickly take the loss and sell instead targeting Support 1 at 1.07250, which has always been our long-term Target.
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Euro can little correct and then make impulse up to seller zoneHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the current support level, which coincided with the support area and rose to the resistance level, but then it rebounded and started to decline in the wedge. Euro in a short time declined until to support line, breaking the 1.0900 and 1.0780 levels, but later EUR bounced from this line of wedge and made an upward impulse to the current support level, exiting from the wedge pattern and breaking the 1.0780 support level again. After this, the price started to rise in an upward channel, and later it reached the resistance line of the channel, breaking the 1.1010 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. But after this, the Euro rebounded from the resistance line and made a strong downward impulse to the current support level, thereby exiting from the upward channel and breaking one more time resistance level. Recently EUR rolled up from 1.0900 support level and started to rise. For this case, I think the Euro can make a little correction, after which the price will rebound up to the seller zone, breaking the resistance level. So, I set my target at the 1.1035 level, which is located in the seller zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Euro to propel on relapsing EU inflation & US jobs dataFighting inflation is hard. Hence, central banks are data dependent while calibrating rates. Continuing geopolitical conflicts puts Europe at risk of inflation relapse.
Headline numbers can be misleading. Central bankers will dig deep. Deeper analysis will compel investors and policy makers to rethink and recalibrate interest rate calculus.
This paper unpacks US jobs & Euro area inflation report, and market expectations of rates ahead.
UNPACKING US NON-FARM PAYROLL DATA
The US labour market added 216k jobs in December 2023 surpassing expectations. It was up 25% month-on-month.
Headline numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for October and November. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined.
Jobs growth is concentrated in three sectors, namely, Government, Education/healthcare, and Leisure/Hospitality. Eighty percent of the jobs added are from sectors that are not considered growth engines.
Three key takeaways from jobs report:
1. Employment growth remains robust: Month-on-Month employment trends point to jobs growth in government, leisure and hospitality, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs.
On a 12-month seasonally adjusted basis, apart from (a) Transportation & Warehousing and (b) Information, rest of the sectors added jobs.
Source: BLS
2. Hourly Wage Earnings growth is strong: In December, average hourly earnings on private payrolls jumped by fifteen cents, or 0.4%, to USD 34.27/hour. Average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1% over the last year.
Source: BLS
3. Unemployment Remains Unchanged: Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% (3.5% last year this time) with number of unemployed persons unchanged at 6.3 million (5.7 million last year this time).
COMPREHENDING EUROZONE INFLATION NUMBERS
Euro area inflation rose 2.9% YoY in December 2023, reversing a two-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Eurostat inflation estimates was marginally below the market consensus of 3%. Inflation uptick since April 2023 was primarily due to energy-related base effects.
Energy prices declined 6.7% while services inflation was flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, softened to 3.4%. Core inflation is at its lowest point since March 2022.
MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF RATE CUTS
Investors are betting that the US Fed and the ECB will cut rates six times this year. First rate cut is expected in March or April.
Market expectations are in sharp contrast to policymakers. The US Fed expects to make three quarter-point cuts this year. The ECB has stood its ground arguing that the inflation fight is not over yet.
Amid strong economic data, probability of Fed rate cuts in March has fallen from 100% to 70%.
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool
EUR-USD WITNESSED WILD MOVES ON INFLATION, JOBS, AND SERVICES DATA BUT SETTLED WHERE IT OPENED
Last Friday news flow impacting FX rates were strong. Front month EUR-USD futures traded wildly opening at 1.0977 reaching a high of 1.1030 and then plunging to a low of 1.0908 before closing at 1.0977.
December US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.6, the lowest reading in seven months, compared to 52.7 in November. Services industry is critical accounting for more than two-thirds of the US economy.
Euro fell 0.5% last week, marking its largest weekly drop since early December breaking three consecutive weeks of strengthening.
The EUR-USD is hovering at its support levels with the 50d DMA likely to print a golden cross with the 200d DMA.
Near term technical signals point to strengthening of the Euro versus the US dollar. Momentum favours Euro while price reversion risk remains neutral.
Diverging macroeconomic conditions leaves Eurozone exposed to higher risk of inflation relapse. The ECB is expected to be slower with rate cuts relative to the Fed. In anticipation, leveraged funds are starting to sharply reduce their net short positions in the CME EUR/USD futures.
Source: CME QuikStrike
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Europe is at greater risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and the middle east. Energy and goods inflation relapse will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts.
Size of the rate cuts, if any, is also likely to be smaller at the ECB relative to the Fed. This will strengthen the Euro against the USD in the near term.
To harvest gains from a strengthening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical long position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in March 2024 (M6EH2024) with an entry at 1.0979 combined with a target at 1.1123 and hedged by a stop at 1.0871, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.33x.
Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25.
• Entry: 1.0979
• Target: 1.1123
• Stop: 1.0871
• Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 180 (= 0.0144; 144 pips; 144 x 1.25 = 180)
• Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 135 (= -0.0108; -108 pips; -108 x 1.25 = -135)
• Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.33x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Euro H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 1.09066
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Stop Loss: 1.08523
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that sits under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1.09981
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance line to $1.0800Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded near support level, which coincided with support area, but soon it declined below to support line of pennant.
After this, EUR in a short time rose back, thereby making fake breakout of $1.0775 level and later it made upward impulse.
Price reached resistance level, which coincided with resistance area, and at once made correction, after which continued to grow.
Euro in a short time rose to resistance line of pennant, but later it bounced and made downward impulse to support line.
Also, price broke $1.1000 level, and now EUR trades very near to resistance line of pennant.
I think, Euro can rise ot resistance line and then bounce down to $1.0800, exiting from pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EURUSD: Consolidation ahead of more sellingEURUSD will most likely close flat today, a price action which is accurately depicted on the neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 51.556, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.804). On a wider horizon, this neutrality is a technical consolidation before the next phase of the bearish wave that started on the December 28th High. This chart shows that the whole 2023 has been a Channel Down pattenr of LH and LL.
As all prior bearish waves, we expect this one to hit and marginally cross the S1 level at least (TP = 1.07245). A potential crossing under the 1D MA50 next week, will validate this scenario.
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EUR/USD Dynamics: Navigating Rebounds and US Labor Market InflueEUR/USD Dynamics: Navigating Rebounds and US Labor Market Influences
EUR/USD exhibited signs of strength during the European trading hours on Thursday, yet encountered resistance in the latter part of the day as rising US Treasury bond yields breathed life into the US Dollar (USD). The pair currently grapples with a bearish trend, trading in negative territory below 1.09170 at the time of this analysis. This trading idea delves into the technical and fundamental aspects guiding the currency pair's movements.
Technical Perspective:
The current price trajectory aligns with a bullish trend, where the Dynamic trendline plays a pivotal role in facilitating rebounds. Notably, this dynamic trendline converges with the Fibonacci 50% and 61.8%, serving as critical support zones. A strategic stop loss is positioned below the 88.60% Fibonacci level, offering protection against a potential reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingering in oversold territory further strengthens the case for a new swing setup, potentially yielding new higher highs.
Upcoming NFP Reading:
As attention shifts to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reading scheduled for today, the market anticipates a figure at or above 200,000. Such an outcome could prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve in March, providing a boost to the USD. Conversely, a disappointing print below 150,000 might fuel dovish Fed expectations and pave the way for EUR/USD to make upward strides as the week concludes.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD's intricate dance between rebounds and the influence of US labor market data highlights the dynamic nature of currency trading. The ongoing bearish trend is met with strategic support zones, and the impending NFP reading adds an element of uncertainty to the mix. As traders position themselves for potential shifts in market dynamics, the interplay of technical indicators and fundamental factors becomes paramount in navigating the ever-evolving foreign exchange landscape.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0770 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal...EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside
EUR/USD faced a decline on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point in nearly two weeks at 1.0940, as the US Dollar (USD) initiated a decisive correction after a lackluster performance in the closing weeks of 2023.
Technical Landscape:
As the new trading day unfolds, the price opens with a bearish tone, navigating within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area within a bullish channel. Notably, the 100 moving average acts as a dynamic support, potentially influencing the pair's trajectory.
USD Rebound and Market Sentiments:
With limited high-tier data releases, the USD gains traction from a souring market mood and a steady recovery in US Treasury bond yields on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index, which experienced a 2% dip in December, rallied nearly 1% on the first trading day of 2024.
Upcoming Economic Data:
In the latter part of the day, the US economic docket is set to feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December and the JOLTS Job Openings report for November. Market expectations anticipate the ISM Manufacturing PMI to inch higher to 47.1 from November's 46.7. A reading surpassing 50 could provide a boost to the USD upon immediate reaction. Conversely, a noticeable decline in job openings may exert downward pressure on the USD.
Anticipated Bullish Impulse:
Building on our technical analysis and taking into account the forthcoming economic data, there is an expectation for a potential bullish impulse in the EUR/USD pair. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental factors sets the stage for a dynamic trading environment as investors await key data releases.
As EUR/USD navigates the early trading sessions of 2024, the rebounding US Dollar and the alignment of technical signals become pivotal factors. The anticipation of a bullish impulse, coupled with the release of crucial economic data, creates an environment where traders remain alert to potential opportunities in the evolving currency landscape.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0724 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
HelenP. I Euro can make small correction and then continue growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago price reached the trend line, after which it rebounded and started to trades in a wedge, where it soon rose to the resistance line, thereby breaking the 1.0900 support level, which coincided with the support zone. After this movement, the EUR made a correction to the support zone, and then rose a little more, but later fell to the trend line. Next, the price bounced from this line and continued to move up to the 1.1050 resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Euro broke this level and rose to the resistance line of the wedge, but in a short time price declined to the trend line and broke it, thereby exiting from the wedge pattern. As well later, the Euro broke the 1.1050 resistance level and made an impulse down to the support level, after which it recently rebounded. Now possibly the Euro can make a little correction and then continue to move up to the resistance level. For this reason, I set my target at the 1.1050 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro, after long correction, can continue to rise in channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago price traded near the 1.0535 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, after which it rebounded and entered to upward channel. In the channel, the Euro made an upward impulse from the support line and rose to the current support level, which coincided with the seller zone and even later broke it and reached the resistance line. But soon, the price rebounded and declined below the 1.0915 level, making a fake breakout, after which the EUR quickly declined to support line of the channel. Then, the price rebounded from this line and repeated movement up to the current support level, and this time, the price finally broke the 1.0915 level and continued to move up. Euro rose to 1.1135 points and then bounced down to the seller zone. At the moment, the price continues to trades in this zone very close to the support level, and possibly, the Euro can rebound from this level and start to rise. For this reason, I set my target at the 1.1100 level in the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD Long Against The RetailersLast week the dollar was mostly weak with DXY currently sitting at the 101 area and is about to test the key 100 level most likely after last week's much worse-than-expected Chicago PMI which came at 46.9 versus the expected 51 which was already far lower than the previous 55.8 and now sliding in the below 50 contraction zone.
Another negative for the dollar could be the U.S. Navy killing Houthi Rebels in Red Sea.
Last week was quiet for the Euro with no economic release so we are left with the overall expectation that the ECB is trying to look hawkish pushing back on cutting rates soon.
- This week Tuesday 16:15 we have Euro Manufacturing’s PMIs in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Eurozone which are mostly expected to stay around the previous levels which are still well below the key 50 level for the indicator.
- Also Tuesday we have a 1st tier US Manufacturing PMI which is expected to drop from 49.4 to 48.2 but after the sharp decline in last week’s Chicago one, a surprise to the downside can be expected which will weigh on the dollar further.
We have an extremely Bearish DXM paired with Institutional traders favouring the euro combined with the 5 year seasonality being slightly bearish sitting at -0.69% but the 10-year one being at positive 0.14% so seasonality can be considered neutral for our potential trade.
Potential entry at 0.50 Fib retracement level on the 4H which is also a Big psychological level being at 1.10 area with 0.5R and another 0.5R after a bullish engulfing candle.
SL on the first potential entry will be at 1.09240 which is around 88pips which is more than the ATR average at this zone for the whole of 2023 Daily chart.