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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 16, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding near 1.0295 in the early Asian session on Thursday. Lower than expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December raises the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice this year, putting pressure on the US Dollar. However, growing concerns over Eurozone economic growth could limit the major pair's gains. The US Dollar (USD) declined after weaker than expected US core CPI data, fuelling expectations that the Fed's easing cycle is not yet over. Markets now expect the US central bank to cut rates by 40 basis points (bps) before the end of the year, compared to around 31 bps before the inflation data was released. Across the ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates four times last year and traders expect three or four changes this year due to concerns about the Eurozone's weak economic outlook. Rising bets on further ECB interest rate cuts could undermine the euro (EUR) against the U.S. dollar in the near term. Later on Thursday, investors will be watching Germany's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for December and the ECB monetary policy meeting report. In the US, the main events will be retail sales data for December and weekly initial jobless claims. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0260, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURO - Price can continue move up to $1.0420, exiting of pennantHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price started to decline inside falling channel, where it bounced from support line and rose to resistance line first. Then Euro turned around and dropped to $1.0380 level, some time traded near and later broke it. Next, Euro exied from channel and fell to support level, after which bounced from this level to $1.0380 level. Price broke this level, but soon it turned around, broke this level again, and started to decline inside pennant. In pennant, EUR fell to support line, after which rose to resistance line of this pattern, breaking $1.0245 level. Now, I think that Euro exit from pennant, reach resistance level, and break it, after which continue to grow to $1.0420 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
5
EURUSD Channel Down bottoming on oversold 4H RSI.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 06 2024 High. The 4H RSI is oversold (<30.00) and every time it has been so on this pattern, it was a buy opportunity. The target of those buy signals has been the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We expect the price to be at least 1.02850 when it hits it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 13, 2025 EURUSDData from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released on Friday reported that non-farm payroll employment (NFP) rose by 256k in December, exceeding market expectations of 160k and beating the revised November figure of 212k (previously reported at 227k). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, fell slightly to 3.9% from 4%. US labour market data for December is likely to reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on keeping interest rates unchanged in January, which will support the dollar against other currencies. Markets expect the Fed to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its 28-29 January meeting. In addition, traders expect four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting through the summer. ECB policymakers seem to be comfortable with these expectations as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control. The head of the ECB and the Bank of France said that interest rates will continue to move towards a neutral rate ‘without slowing down by the summer’ if upcoming data confirm that ‘the pullback in price pressures does not remain in place’. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Euro Back to Parity?The possibility of EUR/USD reaching parity remains a realistic scenario under current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. 1. Diverging Monetary Policies In light of Tump 2.0 and the potential impact of increasing inflation due to the introduction of tariffs, the Federal Reserve is seen to be backing down on its path to keep cutting rates. On the current plans for only 2 rate cuts in 2025, elevated U.S. interest rates could continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, as higher yields attract foreign investment, increasing demand for USD. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces mounting pressure to ease its policy stance. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of stagnation, with Germany, the region's economic engine, teetering on the brink of recession. A dovish ECB weakens the euro relative to the dollar, contributing to downside pressure on EUR/USD. 2. Weakening Eurozone Economy The U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient, supported by robust labor markets and consumer spending. Conversely, the Eurozone has struggled with sluggish growth and energy dependence, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks. 3. Geopolitical Risks The ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine war continue to strain Europe’s energy sector. While the region has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas, high energy prices remain a structural challenge, eroding business competitiveness and consumer purchasing power. Heightened geopolitical tensions globally have fueled risk-off sentiment, benefiting the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 4. Technical Analysis EUR/USD has been trading in a downward trend since October 2024, after reaching a peak of 1.12. Should the pair break below the round number level of 1.02 (and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) the path to parity becomes increasingly plausible, with 1.00 serving as the next major psychological support. The 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, forming a " death cross " pattern, which indicates bearish momentum. Additionally, the TSRI MACD crossover indicates continued selling pressure but room for further downside. Conclusion The conditions are aligned for EUR/USD to reach parity. While short-term volatility and market sentiment may delay this move, the structural drivers of dollar strength and euro weakness remain firmly in place.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD 12/1/24Starting the week with our clear bias and understanding of what we aim to trade on EUR/USD. This bias and understanding are, as always, brought to us by Orion, providing precise bias, points of interest, and entry areas. This week, we observe institutions once again driving the market downward, and we plan to follow this flow. Based on the current market conditions, we are presented with a target low and a major collection of highs, creating a strong area to watch for bearish momentum to return. The game plan is simple: look for a new low to form, giving us targets to aim for. If this happens, watch for the highs to be taken out, which will align us with our short bias. Alternatively, if our current target is reached first, we’ll shift our focus to the highs, providing opportunities to target new lows as the market retraces back to these areas, keeping us in line with the short bias. Follow what price action shows you and, as always, trust Orion. Stick to your plan, follow your rules.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURO - Price can turn around from support area and start growHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some time ago price declined inside falling channel, where it reached resistance line and then fell to $1.0455 level. Then price moved up to resistance line, some time traded near, and then made downward impulse. Price exited from channel, breaking $1.0455 level, and started to trades in flat, where it at once rose to resistance area. In flat, price so long traded in resistance area, after which it turned around and corrected to $1.0250 level. Euro backed up to resistance area, but at once bounced and dropped below $1.0250 level, breaking it and exiting from flat. I think that price can turn around in support area and then bounce up to $1.0365, breaking resistance level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
1
HelenP. I Euro can rebound from trend line and continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the char we can see how the price reached the trend line and then at once dropped to resistance 2, which coincided with the resistance zone. Later price broke resistance 2 and the nsome time traded below this level, after which declined to resistance 1. But then the Euro made impulse up to resistance 2, making a gap, after which continued to trades near resistance 2. When the price reached the trend line, it started to decline near this line and later declined to resistance 1, after which turned around and in a short time rose to the trend line, after which dropped below resistance 1, breaking it too. But soon, the Euro turned around and tried to back up, and failed, after which continued to fall near the trend line. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will rise to the trend line and then continue to decline next. That's why I set my goal at 1.01 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
14
Euro can rise a little and then continue to fall to support lineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price some days started to trades inside the range, where it reached the top part at once and then dropped to the bottom part, breaking the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. Also then, EUR declined to the current resistance level, and even a little below, after which made a strong impulse up, backing up to the range, where it later broke the 1.0520 resistance level one more time. Then price some time traded inside the range and later reached the resistance line, after which started to decline. In a short time, the Euro declined to the current resistance level, thereby breaking the 1.0520 level and exiting from the range and then some time trading near the 1.0350 level. After this, the price broke this level and fell to the support line, but at once rebounded and rose to the resistance line, breaking the 1.0350 level again. A not long time ago, EUR broke the 1.0350 level one more time and continued to decline. For this case, I think that the Euro can rise to almost resistance level and then continue to fall to 1.0190 points, which coincides with the support line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
4
EUR/USD: Awaits Key Economic Data for Future DirectionThe EUR/USD currency pair commenced the week on a strong upward trajectory, demonstrating significant gains on Monday. This bullish momentum follows a period during which the pair successfully reached a previous profit target in a designated demand zone. However, despite this recent uplift, the EUR/USD remains trapped within two crucial supply zones, regions that may serve as resistance points capable of inducing a pullback as the pair seeks to sustain its broader bearish trend. As the day unfolds, market participants will be closely monitoring several pivotal economic indicators from the United States that could significantly influence the trajectory of the USD and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair. Among these reports, the ISM Services PMI for December and the JOLTS Job Openings data for November are expected to take center stage. Analysts have projected that the ISM Services PMI will rise to 53, an improvement from the 52.1 recorded in November. The importance of this report cannot be understated. A reading below 50 would signal a contraction in the services sector, potentially triggering renewed selling pressure on the USD and providing a lift to the EUR/USD pair. In contrast, a robust print of 55 or more could bolster the USD's strength, helping it to find a solid footing and potentially limiting any upward movement in the EUR/USD. In addition to the ISM Services PMI, the JOLTS Job Openings data will also be scrutinized, as this metric provides insights into the labor market's health. A decrease in job openings could suggest a cooling labor market, further weighing on the USD. Conversely, a significant increase in openings might affirm the Federal Reserve's steadfast approach to monetary policy, further reinforcing the dollar's standing. Given the current environment, our analysis leans towards the expectation of a potential bearish continuation for the EUR/USD pair. The interplay of the anticipated economic data and the prevailing technical resistance levels will be critical in determining the pair's next moves—particularly as traders navigate the complex dynamics of supply and demand. As we look ahead, vigilance and adaptability will be key for market participants seeking to capitalize on the fluctuations in this major currency pair. Our Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
EURO HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE!!!! EURO is fundamentally bearish while the DXY is fundamentally bullish. This simple confluence in these two assets are very powerful. Add on the fact that Trump is believed to be good for the dollar’s strength we want to go short going into the New York Session. Technically EURO has taken liquidity around the 1.03400 BIG FIGURE: and is turning around to raid the low of a monthly FvG. We are expecting news to drive EURO lower as well. The algorithm has taken out all baby FvG’s on the lower time frames. Therefore a sell is definitely valid and a gateway trade on this Friday Trap Day! As always trust your set up- never over-leverage, and have a great day! The sell set up is based on an equilibrium 1hr FVG. The Alamo tapped into it and began to sell off. 7-10am is always the kill zone for currencies. #SniperGang
CME:6E1!Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
EURUSD: Channel Down showing no signs of reversal yet.EURUSD is on a strong bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.852, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 18.889) as it is trading inside a Channel Down since September 30th 2024. As long as the 1D MA50 is unbroken, the bearish trend will continue to prevail. Right now the trend has slowed down, but the 1D RSI Rectangle clearly shows that a local top (LH) is in. We will remain bearish, aiming for the Channel'd middle (TP = 1.01700). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EUR/USD: Neutrality Dominates Movements Around the 1.0250 ZoneThe U.S. dollar continues to gain ground as the Fed remains firm in slowing down rate cuts. The interest rate differential of 4.5% from the Fed versus 3.15% from the ECB remains a key reason for the market's preference for the U.S. dollar in the short term. Bearish Trend: The trend in favor of the U.S. dollar remains intact since late September 2024. So far, there are no significant breaks above 1.04091 that would threaten the current bearish formation. RSI Divergence : Lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI indicate a bullish divergence in the short term. This suggests an imbalance in selling pressure and the potential for upward corrections. Monitoring the nearby resistance at 1.0491 is critical for these upcoming oscillations. Key Levels: 1.04091: Nearby resistance that coincides with the bearish trendline. Potential upward corrections may stall at this level. 1.02517: Main short-term support, the lowest level seen in recent months. Breaks below this price could accelerate selling pressure. 1.06031: Key resistance, the December high. Oscillations around this level could jeopardize the current bearish trend. -JP
by FOREXcom
EURO - Price can fall to support line of channel and bounce upHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few moments ago price declined inside wedge, where it broke $1.0770 level and declined to $1.0335 level. Then price turned around and bounced up, making a gap and exited from wedge, after which continued to fall in channel. Inside falling channel, Euro rose to resistance line first and then bounced and dropped to $1.0335 level. After this movement, price some time traded near this level inside resistance area and even later fell to support line of channel. Euro tried to back, but when it entered to resistance area, it at once turned around and fell back. Now, I think that Euro can fall to support line of channel and then bounce up to $1.0450, breaking resistance level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
2
Euro can break support level and drop to 1.0240 points in wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago declined inside the downward channel, where it broke the 1.0485 level, which coincided with the seller zone. Then price exited from the channel and continued to fall in a broadening wedge, and later reached a support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Euro some time traded near and then started to grow to a resistance line of wedge. When the price reached this line, it turned around and started to decline. So, in a short time, the EUR declined to the 1.0345 support level, broke it, and declined to support line of the broadening wedge. But a not long time ago it turned around and rose to support level back. Also recently, the Euro broke this level and now trades very close, so, in my mind, the price can rise a little more, after which starts to decline. Firstly price can decline to the support level, break it, and make a retest, or at once continue to decline without retesting inside the broadening wedge. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0240 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
7
Will History Repeat as Major Currencies Dance Toward Parity?In a dramatic shift that has captured the attention of global financial markets, the euro-dollar relationship stands at a historic crossroads, with leading institutions forecasting potential parity by 2025. This seismic development, triggered by Donald Trump's November election victory and amplified by mounting geopolitical tensions, signals more than just a currency fluctuation—it represents a fundamental realignment of global financial power dynamics. The confluence of diverging monetary policies between the U.S. and Europe and persistent economic challenges in Germany's industrial heartland has created a perfect storm in currency markets. European policymakers face the delicate task of maintaining supportive measures. At the same time, their American counterparts adopt a more cautious stance, setting the stage for what could become a defining moment in modern financial history. This potential currency convergence carries implications far beyond trading desks. It challenges traditional assumptions about economic power structures and reevaluates global investment strategies. As geopolitical tensions escalate and economic indicators paint an increasingly complex picture, market participants must navigate a landscape where historical precedents offer limited guidance. The journey toward potential parity serves as a compelling reminder that in today's interconnected financial world, currency movements reflect not just economic fundamentals but the broader forces reshaping our global order. Conclusion The current landscape presents unprecedented challenges for the EUR/USD pair, driven by economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions. One significant concern is the potential release of sensitive footage from Israel (by the Israeli National Security Agency (NSA) from Hamas body cameras, containing graphic atrocities from the October 7th incident.), which could threaten European stability. These developments go beyond simple market dynamics and have the potential to reshape the social and political fabric of Europe. Market professionals emphasize the importance of adaptable strategies and the vigilant monitoring of key indicators. Investors must prepare for increased volatility while maintaining strong risk management frameworks. The pressure on the euro-dollar relationship is likely to persist, making strategic positioning and careful market analysis more crucial than ever in navigating these turbulent waters.
Short
by UDIS_View