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BTCUSD – Double Top Reversal Setup with Bearish TargetsBased on the BTC/USD 4H chart you shared, here’s a detailed breakdown of the technical analysis: --- 🟠 Pattern & Setup - Double Top Formation: Clearly highlighted at the recent highs, signaling potential bearish reversal. This is a classic sign of buyers losing steam near a resistance level. - Rejection Arrows: Indicate strong resistance where price failed to break higher, adding confluence to the reversal idea. --- 🔻 Sell Bias & Confirmation - Sell Zone: Around the double top zone (~$93,700+), price is stalling and showing bearish pressure. -Bearish Arrow: Suggests a move downward is anticipated, likely toward the support zone and trendline confluence. --- 📉 Key Support Zone - Support Zone Highlighted: Around $88,000–$89,000, where previous structure and buying interest occurred. This is the first potential target for a bearish move. - Trendline Confluence: Also aligns with the support, adding strength to this level. If price breaks and closes below both, further downside could follow. --- ☁️ Ichimoku Cloud - Price is currently above the cloud**, indicating short-term bullish structure still intact. However, a break below the support + cloud would be a strong bearish signal. --- 🔑 What to Watch For - Bearish Confirmation: If the neckline of the double top breaks (around ~$92,250–$92,150), it could confirm the pattern and trigger the move toward support. - Invalidation: A breakout above the double top would invalidate this bearish setup and suggest continuation toward higher highs. --- ✅ Summary - Bias: Bearish (short-term) - Trigger: Break below ~$92,150 - Target 1: $88,000–$89,000 support zone - Trendline + Cloud support: Key areas to watch for either a bounce or further breakdown Sell Setup: Double Top Formation Entry Zone: Around 93,700 (top of the double top) --- Take Profit Levels: - TP1: 91,600 Just above the neckline for a safer partial exit. - TP2: 89,300 Aligns with the major support zone and previous consolidation area.* - TP3: 87,000 At the trendline + cloud support confluence — a strong area for a possible bounce.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
1
Trump Reassures on Trade and FedThe EUR/USD traded near 1.1350 on Friday, while the US Dollar Index rose above 99.5, recovering from earlier losses. The dollar strengthened after President Trump reassured markets that trade talks with China would continue, despite Beijing’s denials. Optimism also grew on reported progress with Japan and South Korea. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent said US-China tariffs must be reduced significantly for real progress, increasing hopes for a deal. Trump also eased monetary policy concerns by stating he never planned to remove Fed Chair Powell. Although Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack mentioned a rate cut in June if needed, renewed trade optimism lifted the dollar. Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
by ChartMage
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VELOCITY:STOXX50Short
by Thief_Trader
EUR/USD) one side of breakout and move Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe, showing two ptential scenarios based on price behavior around a key supply zone. 1. Key Levels: Resistance/Target Point (Upper): ~1.15729 Supply Zone (Current Price Area): ~1.14100–1.14500 Support Level/Target Point (Lower): ~1.12658 200 EMA: ~1.13581 acting as dynamic support 2. Current Price: EURUSD is trading at 1.14167, just above the 200 EMA and at the bottom edge of the supply zone. 3. Scenarios Outlined: Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and holds above the supply zone, it may continue toward the upper resistance level at 1.15729. This move would be supported by bullish momentum and potentially a breakout strategy. Bearish Scenario: If price rejects the supply zone and fails to break above convincingly, a reversal is expected. The target for this bearish move is the support zone near 1.12658. 4. Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Around 49, neutral zone but potentially recovering from oversold. Suggests indecision, with momentum that could swing either way depending on price action at the supply zone. Mr SMC Trading point Trade Ideas: Long Trade Setup (Breakout): Entry: Break and retest above ~1.14500. Target: ~1.15729. Stop Loss: Below ~1.14100. Short Trade Setup (Rejection): Entry: Rejection candle formation around 1.14300–1.14500. Target: ~1.12658. Stop Loss: Above ~1.14700. Overall Idea: This is a dual-scenario setup, where the market structure at the current supply zone will determine direction. The chart encourages traders to wait for confirmation before committing to either a breakout or a reversal strategy. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
by SMC-Trading-Point
7
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips From HighsMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips From Highs EUR/USD declined from the 1.1570 resistance and traded below 1.1470. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1500 zone. - There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1440 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1500 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1500 support zone against the US Dollar. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1440. The pair declined below 1.1410 and tested the 1.1310 zone. A low was formed near 1.1308 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1370 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1573 swing high to the 1.1308 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1440 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1410 level. The next key resistance is at 1.1440 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1573 swing high to the 1.1308 low. The main resistance is near the 1.1470 level. A clear move above the 1.1470 level could send the pair toward the 1.1570 resistance. An upside break above 1.1570 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1335. The next key support is at 1.1310. If there is a downside break below 1.1310, the pair could drop toward 1.1265. The next support is near 1.1220, below which the pair could start a major decline. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.5500 back down My analysis this week is quite similar to GU. I’ll be looking for short opportunities to target a demand zone below current price. We’ve seen consolidation over the past week, which has built liquidity on both sides—and it's only a matter of time before that liquidity is swept. What I’ll be watching for is a reaction at the current supply, where I’ll wait for price to slow down and distribute, giving us an opportunity to catch a retracement down toward a key area of interest for buys. If price reaches 1.12000 or lower, I’ll be looking for signs of accumulation and potential longs from there. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - The DXY has been bearish, but is approaching a demand zone, which could cause a reversal—aligning with EU shorts. - A strong weekly supply zone is in play, which could trigger a bearish reaction. - Plenty of liquidity and imbalances lie to the downside, ready to be cleared. - A retracement is likely, considering the extended bullish momentum recently. - Current consolidation suggests a breakout is near, and this supply zone is my nearest POI for shorts. P.S. Stay flexible—once the consolidation breaks, assess how price behaves. Don’t lock yourself into one bias; always be prepared to adapt to what the market shows you.
Short
by Hassan_fx
7
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 18, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Euro has demonstrated a successful pullback to the anticipated support level of 1.128, from which upward momentum has emerged. Consequently, the currency is positioned to retest the previously completed Outer Currency Rally level of 1.142, potentially advancing towards the subsequent target marked next Outer Currency Rally at 1.159. However, it is essential to recognize that there is a possibility of downward momentum re-emerging should the Euro challenge the completed resistance at 1.142 or the forthcoming target of 1.159.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD 3-Year Highs After 200-DMA SupportEUR/USD had pushed six consecutive days of losses after recoiling from Fiboancci resistance late last month. The 1.0943 level held two different resistance tests, with prices pulling back after the FOMC meeting saw Jerome Powell take a wait-and-see approach with regards to both inflation and possible rate cuts. Normally, a backdrop like that would allow for a build of USD-strength, and we saw that show up as EUR/USD dropped down for a test of the 200-day moving average, but that's around when the weakness started to slow. Buyers responded in a big way and that led to a breakout and fresh three-year highs just a week later. Notably, before those highs could print it was the same 1.0943 Fibonacci level that held support, and that has some relation to another key level that's so far held support for this week at 1.1275, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move. At this point bulls have retained control of the pair and this week presented another couple of fundamental drivers that would seem to point at reversal, with a strong U.S. retail sales report, a Jerome Powell that sounded somewhat hawkish with inflation expectations around tariffs; and then the dovish ECB rate cut on Thursday. Despite all that - EUR/USD has held up fairly well and it's that deduction that illustrates bullish potential into next week. For resistance - 1.1500 is huge. This was last in-play in early-2022 and it was resistance on multiple occasions before bears were able to take care of matters. So, chasing breakouts at the big figure could be challenging. Pullbacks could remain attractive and given the response to 1.1275, we can see where buyers had responded quickly to that. Of interest is the 1.1200 level that was hardened resistance in Q3 of last year, and then possibly even the 1.1100 level that held the highs earlier in April. For invalidation of trend, it's the 1.0900-1.0943 zone that I think remains of interest. - js
by FOREXcom
EUR /USD) resistance level rejected support level Read The ChaptSMC Trading point update analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe, and it presents a potential bearish setup. Here's a breakdown of the idea: Key Elements: Resistance Zone (around 1.14182): The price is currently approaching a marked resistance area. The analysis suggests this could be a turning point where price may reverse. Projected Movement (Black Arrows): The chart predicts a double top formation or a rejection from the resistance level, followed by a strong move downward. Target Point: The drop is expected to reach the key support zone around 1.10942, aligning with a previous structure and a potential liquidity zone. EMA 200 (around 1.10389): Price remains well above the 200 EMA, suggesting the trend is still bullish overall, but the setup targets a potential correction or short-term reversal. RSI Indicator (~60): RSI is above 60 but not overbought yet. This supports the idea that there's room for one more push up into resistance before a drop. Mr SMC Trading point Summary of the Idea: 1. Watch for price reaction around 1.14182. 2. If there's a clear rejection or double top, a short position may be considered. 3. Target area is around 1.10942. 4. The setup assumes a corrective move in a broader bullish trend. plase support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
11
Euro Outlook: Final Push Before the Drop?According to AriasWave, the reason we haven’t seen the market roll over yet is because Wave D has been in play since 2022. I’m watching the 1.17747 level closely—once we hit that zone, I’m expecting a sharp reversal to the downside. There’s also a chance we push up to 1.22570 to retest the 1000-period moving average on the weekly. Either way, the setup’s almost complete. My minimum downside target for the Euro is 0.70. I believe a major economic slowdown is right around the corner. I’ll break it all down in today’s Market Update—covering the Euro, USD, Dow, S&P 500, and Bitcoin. Stay tuned. And yeah—I’m back online after a weeklong ban. Let’s get to work.
by AriasWave
EUR/USD Holds Steady Near 1.15000The EUR/USD has gained more than 4% over the past three trading sessions, with bullish momentum remaining strong, as markets fear that a continued escalation in the trade war may keep heavy selling pressure on the U.S. dollar. With tariff-related uncertainty persisting, the euro continues to attract capital fleeing the dollar in search of a temporary safe haven. Bullish Trend Currently, the most relevant formation on the chart is a short-term bullish trend, which began in early March. Price action has continued to show consistent upward momentum, moving steadily toward the next psychological resistance at 1.15000, which has further reinforced buying pressure in the near term. However, it's important to note that the volatility seen in recent sessions has been significant, which could open the door to short-term corrective pullbacks. RSI Indicator The RSI line has started to oscillate above the overbought level at 70. Additionally, a relevant divergence has begun to emerge: while the RSI continues to post flat highs, the price of EUR/USD is printing higher highs. These signals suggest a possible imbalance between buying and selling strength, indicating that a short-term correction could be on the horizon. Key Levels to Watch: 1.15000: A tentative resistance level aligned with a key psychological threshold. Sustained bullish moves above this zone could strengthen the current upward bias and lead to a more pronounced uptrend. 1.11549: A nearby support level, which could act as the first zone of interest if a short-term correction unfolds. 1.09513: A key support area, representing the most important neutral zone tested in recent weeks. A break below this level could put the current bullish structure at risk. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
EuroDollar : When Does the Dust Settle? Tariffs 25'Rather quiet to begin the week as the EuroDollar remains unchanged during the Initial 3 sessions of the week. A "Doji" Daily Candle printed, informing us those of us more technically minded to write off the day's price behavior and look to preceding candles for indication of future direction. It is important to note the longer top wick of 38.5 pips versus the 23.5 pips bottom wick. We can observe yet another daily candle wicking into the Weekly level 1.087. This Price remains very important in the short term because it may facilitate a pullback on EurUsd to the downside. This follows a historic Week of volatility for the EuroDollar as Trumps Tariffs shook the markets to say the least. If we are considering Bullish targets for the week, Daily Level 1.093 , or even Daily Level 1.098 which would be the most generous for buyers. When fundamentals are this strong, it's more difficult to discount those larger, irrational moves that you see in the markets sometimes. So although one could argue how over-extended the EuroDollar is, we must remember the game we are playing. In Considering Bearish targets, a retest of Daily Support level 1.0786 seems reasonable. A Deeper retracement could see price around 1.0694 , the beginning of Last Tuesdays very clean bullish NY session. A pullback seems technically sound, considering the outlier and extent of last weeks upside move. Job Openings on Tuesday is the appetizer to the Inflation CPI data on Wednesday which will surely see some volatility rock these already rattled markets. CPI/Inflation is forecasted to Cool for the Dollar which technically supports more strength for the Euro and a further upside push for this pair. Please Leave a rocket or comment if you enjoyed this Analysis. Have a good trading week !
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Euro has demonstrated an exceptional rally during this trading week, revisiting and significantly enhancing its upper trading range by reaching an outer currency rally level of 1.142. Consequently, an intermediate price reversal has been identified, suggesting that the Eurodollar may continue to decline toward the support level at 1.128, possibly extending to the support level of 1.119. It is important to note that upward momentum may emerge from either of these support levels.
by TradeSelecter
2
EUR/USD Hits Highest Level in Over Three YearsEUR/USD Hits Highest Level in Over Three Years This morning, the euro surged above the 1.1300 mark against the US dollar for the first time since February 2022. Throughout this week, the EUR/USD pair has broken through the highs of both 2023 and 2024. Why Is EUR/USD Rising? Amid the whirlwind of news surrounding the imposition and suspension of tariffs in US–EU trade, one dominant factor stands out — the sell-off of US bonds. According to Reuters, long-term US Treasury bonds are being heavily sold this week. The yield on 10-year notes has jumped from 3.9% to around 4.4%, marking the steepest increase in yields since 2001. This may reflect a reaction by foreign holders of US debt to sanctions imposed by the White House, combined with growing uncertainty about the US economy — especially as recession fears gain more media attention. As a result, the US dollar is showing weakness against a range of currencies, including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the euro. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD The chart reveals a clear ascending channel (marked in blue), with the price repeatedly interacting with its upper, lower, and median boundaries — highlighted with markers and arrows. Current bullish sentiment has pushed the pair towards the upper boundary of this channel. It’s possible this resistance line could halt further gains, potentially leading to a correction — perhaps down to the 1.11 level, which previously acted as a strong resistance point. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 11, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD hit its highest levels in nearly two years on Thursday, breaking through and closing above 1.1200 for the first time in 21 months. Market tensions continue to ease after the Trump administration dropped its own tariffs at the last minute, causing a general weakening in US Dollar flows. US consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell significantly short of forecasts in March. The core CPI fell to 2.8 per cent year-on-year, a four-year low after nearly eight months above 3.0 per cent. Core CPI inflation also fell to 2.4 per cent year-on-year. Investment markets will face a major challenge if the tariffs reverse the Federal Reserve's (Fed) multi-year efforts to curb inflation. On Friday, the week will conclude with the release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to decline again in April as consumers feel the pressure of the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies, and is likely to fall to a near three-year low of 54.5. In addition, expected consumer inflation data will be released on Friday, with UoM's 1-year and 5-year expected consumer inflation previously standing at 5% and 4.1% respectively. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1305, SL 1.1380, TP 1.1150
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EU Tariff Relief Drives Euro Above $1.13The euro climbed above $1.13, its highest since September 2024, after the EU suspended new U.S. tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks. This followed President Trump’s move to cut tariffs to 10% for non-retaliating countries while raising Chinese duties to 125%. While easing global slowdown fears, the mixed signals fueled uncertainty. Money markets adjusted ECB expectations, pricing the deposit rate at 1.8% by December, up from 1.65%, and lowered the probability of an April cut to 90%. Key resistance is at 1.1390, followed by 1.1425 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180, and 1.1100.
by ChartMage
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
Euro Steady as EU Retaliates on TariffsThe euro hovered around 1.0980 on Thursday, supported by rising trade tensions and renewed political stability in the Eurozone. Sentiment favored the currency after China raised tariffs on all U.S. goods to 84% from 34%, retaliating against Washington’s hike to 104% on Chinese imports. The European Commission also approved retaliatory tariffs on €21 billion worth of U.S. goods, including soybeans, motorcycles, and orange juice. The escalation pushed investors away from typical safe havens like the dollar and Treasuries. Political stability in Germany further supported the euro, as the CDU/CSU and SPD finalized a coalition, clearing the way for Friedrich Merz to become Chancellor next month. The ECB is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month. Key resistance is at 1.1020, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1150. Support lies at 1.0880, then 1.0810 and 1.0730.
by ChartMage
Dollar Under Pressure from Recessionary SignalsEUR/USD climbed about 80 pips to 1.1040 on Wednesday as the dollar index slipped below 105.5, marking a second day of losses. The U.S. dollar weakened amid growing fears of recession, triggered by President Trump's sweeping tariffs. China now faces a 104% levy, with Beijing vowing to "fight to the end." Market sentiment remained cautious as trade negotiations stalled, despite Trump’s outreach to major partners. Concerns that the escalating trade war may tip the U.S. into recession have increased expectations of further Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar. Key resistance is at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150 and 1.1215. Support lies at 1.0900, then 1.0850 and 1.0730.
by ChartMage
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Resumes IncreaseMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Resumes Increase EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0950 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a decent upward move from the 1.0880 zone against the US Dollar. - There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0955 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0775 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.0950 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the last analysis. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1000. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1150 resistance. A high was formed near 1.1146 before the pair corrected gains. It dipped below 1.1000 and tested 1.0880. The pair is again rising from the 1.0880 zone. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0955. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.0880 low. Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.1045 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.0880 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.1080 level. An upside break above the 1.1080 level might send the pair toward the 1.1145 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.1165 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1200 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the 1.0955 level. The next major support is the 1.0880 level. A downside break below the 1.0880 support could send the pair toward the 1.0830 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.0775. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen