Potential Trading Opportunity: Euro Poised to Fall Parity with tAs you may be aware, the euro has been facing considerable pressure against the US dollar, and there is a growing possibility that it may soon reach parity or even dip below it.
Given the caution warranted in volatile markets, this idea aims to present a valuable opportunity for traders who are willing to navigate the risks involved. If you have been following the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market closely, now might be the time to consider shorting the euro against the dollar.
By observing the weakening Eurozone economic indicators, mounting concerns about the European Central Bank's monetary policy, and the resurgent strength of the US economy, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the downward trend in the euro's value is likely to continue.
For those traders with a cautious approach looking to capitalize on this downward movement, shorting the euro can potentially yield impressive returns. However, it is of utmost importance to approach this opportunity with careful consideration and ensure that you have undertaken thorough analysis of the market variables.
I strongly encourage you to perform research, including technical and fundamental analysis, before making any trading decisions. As a professional trader, I trust that you understand the importance of incorporating risk management strategies and setting clear profit targets.
Eurodollar
EurUsd retraces 📎 / CPI Data as catalystEurusd retraced 100 Pips today with Infaltion data as the catalyst for a continuation of higher timeframe momentum.
How Surprised can we be of a move to the downside with the Weekly/Monthly timeframes doing just that for the last 3 months.
The news release was stronger than what was expected for the USD. Inflation is increasing at a faster rate than expected. Let's buy the USD as a safe haven given these uncertain and troubled times..
Technicals : Large Bearish candle just printed on the Daily timeframe. The next Daily candle will likely have a bottom wick and is why it is still reasonable to look for a continuation play. That said, with the anticipated London session volume, we may expect a pullback to 1.054 weekly level or 1.056 before observng more bearish movement on Eurusd
EURUSD will Attack to Downtrend line⏰(4-Hour)⏰🚀🏃EURUSD is moving in the 🟢Support zone🟢, and Regular Divergence(RD+) is seen between two consecutive valleys.
🌊In terms of Elliott waves , EURUSD seems to have completed the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5 ).
🔔I expect EURUSD to rise to at least the Downtrend line after breaking the Resistance line .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( NZDUSD ), 4-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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🧠Short-Term EURUSD Sentiment🔥
According to the latest currency news headlines, short-term sentiment towards the Euro appears slightly downbeat against the US Dollar. While both economies face inflationary headwinds, recent data surprises have painted a relatively weaker picture for the Eurozone bloc.
German industrial orders came in lower than forecast in the latest monthly report, underscoring the challenges manufacturers continue to face from high energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, French GDP growth slowed more than anticipated in Q3, raising concerns that the second largest Eurozone economy may be slowing.
Comments from ECB officials at regional central bank conferences this week reiterated the bank's commitment to further tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. However, they maintained a cautious stance, stressing that future rate decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data. This leaves the policy path somewhat uncertain compared to the more hawkish Fed.
In contrast, US jobless claims came in above expectations last week, pointing to underlying resilience in the labor market. This boosted views that the Federal Reserve remains on track to deliver another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at its November meeting. Fed speakers struck a firm tone that inflation must be cooled through forceful rate actions.
Looking at Eurusd technicals, downside momentum has held above 1.0300 for now. However, near-term rallies continue facing resistance below 1.0500 on cautious short-term sentiment. The outlook could brighten if upcoming Eurozone data surprises higher or there are signs inflation is moderating more quickly than expected. But for now, traders appear to favor positioning for dollar strength on a short-term basis.
Technical key aspects of the short term trend and best entry/exit strategy based on the analysis provided in the TradingView charts:
- The short term trend of EURUSD across the timeframes analyzed (weekly to 4H) remains bearish. Price action has been declining within descending resistance lines and channels.
- Best entry for short trades was suggested to be after a bounce from resistance levels or pullbacks from oversold/oversold levels on indicators like the BB bands. This reduces risk of entering at highs.
- Given volatility in currency pairs, optimal stop loss placement would be above recent swing highs or structural resistance levels, around 20-30 pips above entry to limit downside risk.
- Initial profit targets were identified as lower support levels, around 50-100 pips below entry. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
- Additional extended profit targets aligned with longer term analysis include monthly or weekly demand zones and support levels offered by structural patterns like descending channels over 100-200 pips lower.
- Traders are advised to exit parts of their position at initial targets and move stops to breakeven on the rest, as well as trail stops closer as the trade moves in their favor, to lock in profits and limit risks of unexpected reversals.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has tested the Outer Currency Dip of 1.050 multiple times. It has risen during this week's trading session, as our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of September 29 indicated: For the upcoming week, the up target is Mean Res 1.062, and on the downside the Mean Sup 1.050 and completed Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.
SasanSeifi 💁♂️EUR/USD ⏩1.056 / 1.058 Hey there! As you can see, in the 4-hour timeframe, after a decline, the price has shown a positive response from the $1.044 range, and it's currently trading around the $1.053 range. Based on the candlestick patterns, my expectation is that the price may continue to move positively toward the resistance levels at $1.056 / $1.058 with some positive fluctuations. Afterward, upon completing the pullback process, we might observe a price correction.
In the case of positive fluctuations, to gain a better understanding of the continuation of the price trend, we should closely monitor how the price reacts to the resistance levels.
✨What's your opinion? Do you agree?
🔵Remember, always conduct your own analysis and consider other factors before
making any trading decisions. Good luck!"✌️
❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!
if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌✌
NFP Surprises USD B____s ? ⁉️🚀 NFP .. NFP pulling back prior to NFP. If we don't reach my 1.05750 bullish target prior to NFP then we are going up with NFP. Different kind of Analysis today. I only updated my zones instead of doing a fresh top-down analysis
0:0 Previous price action
0:58 Higher timeframes
4:04 Bias for NFP
EurUsd Strong as ever after botched ADP data ⚖️Solid Daily candle closure after not great ADP data.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
3:05 weekly timeframe
4:50 Daily timeframe
8:16 4hr timeframe
11:45 1hr timeframe
Not surprised.. Also not surprised to asian session move back to the highs from NY session earlier today. These are signs of bullish strength for EurUsd. We just recieved a solid 4hr candle lose with Asian session. Market structure filled to bullish with NY along with the Daily closure. We still have NFP data but it's in 32 hours. We may observe an increase prior to NFP and that's what I'm looking for on EU.
Few key level's we have here
1.0575 Daily level
1.0543 weekly level
1.0527 4hr level
1.05023 4hr level
1.0491 1hr level
1.04608 Daily level
Euro falls to lowest level all year while dollar risesI wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the currency market, specifically the significant weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar. As of today, the Euro has fallen to its weakest level this year, while the Dollar continues to strengthen without any signs of easing.
The current situation raises concerns and prompts us to carefully evaluate our trading strategies. The Euro's decline may present an opportunity for those considering a short position on the currency. However, I would like to emphasize the importance of approaching this situation with caution and thorough analysis.
Considering the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, it is crucial to assess the potential risks involved in shorting the Euro. While the Dollar's gains have been consistent, it is essential to remember that market dynamics can change rapidly. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct comprehensive research and seek expert advice.
In light of the above, I encourage you to closely monitor the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and keep a vigilant eye on any significant market developments. It is always wise to stay informed and adapt our strategies accordingly.
Should you require any further assistance or have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you and provide guidance throughout your trading journey.
$EUR/USD -Quarterly in SHORTOn the Bigger picture,
EUR/USD triggered two TP Levels,
awaiting for the lower ones.
How much Lower can $EUR/USD go ?
It's been a very good Summer shorting Euro throughout Q3/2023 .
We also longed the up-rise bounce last year lows at 0.95 $ and ride it all the way by end year
(Two Quarters opened position)
Do not be trapped by the most recent price action of $EUR/USD.
Euro is just gaining a little momentum by bouncing at technical levels,
as well fundamentally speaking in relation to
TVC:DXY which has been on a rally of 11 Consecutive Weekly Green Candles.
(so it may be a time for markets relief, considering that TVC:DXY is over-extended and under lots of resistances points like that of Golden Zone Macro Fib that is currently being broken)
(Check the TVC:DXY Idea below)
Is it up from here ?
Looking to long $EUR/USD after having full confirmations of trends shift.
For now, its better to trade not against the trend and continue looking for shorting opportunities on EUR/USD
Or you can choose to be on the sidelines awaiting for confirmations on TVC:DXY to start showing weakness on what would be its 12 Weekly Strike !!!
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Understand Session to Session Behavior🏺EurUsd 1.It's early in the week 2. Alot of volatility already this week for EurUsd 3. Daily candle closed with no bottom wick denoting exhaustion 4. Asian session continuation to the downside here coinciding with daily support level 1.04627
0:0 Monthly timeframe
2:47 Weekly timeframe
4:51 Daily timeframe
6:52 15m timeframe
8:04 4hr timeframe
8:52 1hr timeframe
We moved down quite a bit today! Took some sells during NY session and jumped on the train to the downside. Is it a surprise that Asian session has continued that descent? We are at almost 2x ATR for EurUsd regarding the volatility today. London Session usually does some fakeout behavior and will likely retrace to gather some liquidity here.. There is always fomo liquidity in the market and my trading system depends on it.
EurUsd Change of Character 🔔Hello everyone so off to the races here with another week in the markets.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
2:59 Weekly timeframe
6:38 Daily timframe
9:10 4hr timeframe
12:08 1hr timeframe
12:50 Bias
My Analysis today is derived from the close of the Septmeber Monthyll candle. We observed the September monthly candle pull back up into the close with (2) Bullish Daily candles leading the way. Combine this with the fact that the Weekly candle last week closed above our Weekly/Monthly support level at 1.054. We currently are about 26 pips above our weekly support level and I can visualize price facilitating a move up from within this area. With that said, we have manufacturing in the coming session with the data expected to increase slightly but still contract overall ( which makes me more bullish on Eurusd). If I'm wrong then we will see a move back towards 1.054 Weekly support level and fail to hold it with NY session as a continue momentum on higher timeframes back to 1.05 daily support and psychological level..
What are your thoughts on the coming sessions?
Thanks for joining me today
Monthly Candle pulls back for Closure? 🌛 EurUsdEurusd no mercy for the Monthly candle closure here.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
1:41 Weekly timeframe
3:57 daily timeframe
5:51 4hr timeframe
7:49 1hr timeframe
8:01 what happened during today
13:40 Bias for upcoming session
Today we observed a V-Shaped recovery on Eurusd fueled by missed GDP data. We can also attribute the pulback to an over-extended DXY, profit-taking, and Fomo liquidity chasing the market down...
Please let me know if you caught this retracement which I called out in my previous analysis about 24 hours ago.
With that said, I'm anticpating an increase into the close of the monthly candle. I believe it can continue to pullback and create a larger bottom wick. The current size of the bottom wick on eurusd on the Monthly timeframe is 86 pips. Today price pulled back up and closed a solid bullish candle back above the weekly timeframe support level at 1.054 which was our original bearish shorts target on the week. To end the week, I wouldn't be surprised to see another bullish push after that bullish daily candle close that we observed today. This bullish push could extend to 1.06071 1hr resistance zone. We have clean traffic up to that level .. a 28 pip clean range. inflation data not expected to chang eover the previous data point.. could be catalyst to continue to pullback to the upside but if we are wrong.. it may act as a catalyst to pull back down towards 1.054 weekly support level or 1.053-1.052 area.
EurUsd Dives to the Sea Floor?🌊 🤔Despite missed consumer confidence on Tuesday, Eurusd has been tanking and continuing the higher timeframe momentum.
0:0 Monhtly timeframe
2:56 Weekly timeframe
4:55 Daily timeframe
6:50 4hr timeframe
8:55 1hr timeframe
12:40 Bias
We may also observe that the market is pulling down into the close of the monthly candle. The same concept which you may hear me talk about with the weekly candle pulling down or pulling bak into the close of a weekly candle.. just on a larger scale. The Monthly candle here has pulled down 165 pips into the candle close vs on the weekly timeframe we may observe a 40-80 pip move into the candle closure. Now we have seen quite the move down and there were a few traders looking to take longs at the beginning of the week, little early but i think the time is nearing for a possible pullback with london or NY session. This is because we observed quite a large volatile move to the downside. Asian session has pulled up when typically it has been pulling down across the past few days.. foreshadowing possible retracement. Either way, flexibility is one of the best qualities to exercise as a scalper. We will be open- minded and patient with entries and exits when approaching risk. We have reached a psychological number and this coincides Eurusd approaching the lows of the year at 1.08486. Our next tsrgt for shorts is 1.04609 daily level. Our retracement target is 1.05419 or 1.056 4hr resistance level. GDP is anticpated to be good for the USD so this could provide a catlayst for a bear continuation. If it misses , then we may anticpate a retracement. This is the logical approach, but we all know the market isn't always logical but often irrational.
If you've read this far, leave a comment and a rocket and I will see you in the next analysis. Cheers.
Momentum in a Bearish market 🪜EurUsdWhen the Market trends down, support zones become resistance zones after candlestick closure confirmations.
0;0 Monthly timeframe
1:15 weekly timeframe
4:15 daily timeframe
9:00 4hr timeframe
11:45 1hr timeframe
14:00 Bias
If you are new to the markets, that last sentence is probably a bit confusing. But really all it sums up to is that the market moves down in methodical steps. This may not always be the case however... Similar to a ladder and different from a silde. The market will drop suddenly and slide deeply in a panic similar to the Stock market crash of 2020 with Covid-19. All support level's failed and liquidity was swept through due to a change in fundamentals. The forex market has much more volume and therefore will not slide as easily vs the stock market which runs on lower liquidity. We are talking about medium-long term slides across days and weeks or even months. In the short term however, fundamental releases can cause the FX market to slide 10's of pips in a matter of seconds. Being inclined towards a scalping style, it is especially important to be aware of these short term slides which could wipeout a sizable portion of a trading account.
Price action to begin the week:
Weekly level 1.0663 is especially relevant and may facilitate a selloff back to the lows 1.0613. If we do push higher, we may tap into 1.0691 daily resistance level before seeing more selling pressure. 1.054 is the weekly bearish target for this week and our first stop will be 1.0576 daily level where we may observe some profit taking. Bullish targets on the week include 1.075 daily resistace zone. For this scenario, would prefer a daily closure above 1.0691 daily level.
EUR/USD: Euro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed EventEuro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed Event
In the aftermath of the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) event, the Euro (EUR) found itself on a backfoot against the US Dollar (USD), but it managed to regain some ground. Here's a look at the key events and dynamics shaping the EUR/USD currency pair's movement.
Euro in Decline Post-Fed:
The Euro had been facing downward pressure against the US Dollar as the market digested the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent actions. Stocks in Europe opened Thursday's trading session in the red, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market.
EUR/USD Rebounds:
Despite an early drop to fresh multi-month lows, the Euro managed to stage a modest rebound against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair climbed back above the 1.0650 level during the European trading session on Thursday.
US Dollar Strength Persists:
The US Dollar continued to demonstrate strength, with the USD Index (DXY) reaching new highs. The index approached a six-month high near 105.70, just a few pips away from the year-to-date peak observed on March 8, which was around 105.90.
Fed's Hawkish Stance:
The rebound in the EUR/USD pair coincided with some corrective movements in the short end of the US yield curve, while the belly and long end saw modest gains. This shift in bond yields may have contributed to the Euro's rebound. Following the Fed's meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that there is still a considerable path to cover in reaching the target inflation rate of 2%. The Fed decided to maintain current interest rates, but it remains prepared to raise rates when it deems appropriate.
Key Data and Events Ahead:
In the economic calendar for the eurozone, the preliminary reading of Consumer Confidence, tracked by the European Commission, is scheduled for release. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to deliver a speech, which could provide insights into the central bank's perspective.
In the United States, the focus will be on the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Economic Index, and Existing Home Sales. These data points will provide further context for the economic situation in the US.
In summary, the Euro faced early losses against the US Dollar but managed to regain some ground in European trading. The USD's strength persists, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. Key economic data and speeches by central bank officials will be closely monitored for further market direction.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.072 with targets at 1.0610 & 1.0590 in extension.
Euro Still Drops After ECB's Record-High Interest Hike
I must admit that the current state of affairs in the currency market has left me feeling rather disheartened. It is with a heavy heart that I share with you the recent news regarding the euro's ongoing decline, even in the face of the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise interest rates to unprecedented levels.
In a surprising turn of events, the euro has failed to find its footing, despite the ECB's efforts to bolster its value. The announcement of the highest interest rates on record was anticipated to provide a much-needed boost to the struggling currency. However, it appears that the market sentiment has not aligned with our expectations, leaving us in a state of perplexity and disappointment.
As traders, we often rely on historical data, economic indicators, and expert opinions to guide our investment decisions. However, the current situation reminds us that the market can be unpredictable and subject to various external factors. While the ECB's decision was intended to instill confidence in the euro, it seems that other prevailing circumstances are exerting a stronger influence on its downward trajectory.
In light of these developments, I would like to suggest considering a short position on the euro. Although it is disheartening to witness the currency's decline, it is crucial for us to adapt to market conditions and seize opportunities that arise from such situations. By taking a short position, we can potentially benefit from the euro's continued depreciation and mitigate potential losses.
I understand that this suggestion may not align with our initial expectations or desires, but as traders, we must remain adaptable and open to alternative strategies. As the saying goes, "the market is always right," and it is our responsibility to adjust our positions accordingly.
Please feel free to comment below if you would like to discuss this further or explore other potential trading opportunities. I value your expertise and would appreciate your input on the matter.
www.wsj.com
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of September 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the Eurodollar fulfilled its legacy by completing our Outer Currency Dip of 1.062 with an intermediate rebound retest to Mean Res 1.070 and 1.075 possibilities. The next major down target is the Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.
Make the opponent flinch, and you've already won - Musashi 📼 The market has been relentless to the downside over the last 2-3 months.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
2:00 Weekly timeframe
5:35 Daily timeframe
8:45 4hr timeframe
12:35 let's zoom out a bit
12:30 1hr timeframe
15:15 Bias
Fueled by Inflation data and technical confirmations, the market has continued is descent time & again. Tuesday Wednesday and thursday have closed bearish. We have established momentum in the market and I believe it is likely that we contiue on this path to end the week. The weekly can may continue to pull to the downside as it is currently bearish and has a 77 pips top wick. The thursday daily candle closed bearish and we have a wick to go fill with momentum. The market set itself up early in the week as it was bullish on monday and observed bullish impulses on tuesday and wednesday. Thursday saw a continuation of the bear momentum established on wednesday and I believe we may also see a continuatiion on Friday. It is easier trading with the trend.. and they do say .. the trend is your friend.
With that said, we must remain flexible when trading the markets and our success across time realy depends on our ability to adapt to the changing market conditions.