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Fundamental Market Analysis for May 23, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trying to halt its three-day losing streak, hovering around the 1.08200 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to the latter's corrective movement. Investors are likely to await the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the eurozone and Germany before turning their attention to the US PMI, which will be released later in the North American session on Thursday. The eurozone manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 46.2 from 45.7 in May, while the services PMI is expected to show a slight increase to 53.5 from 53.3. Meanwhile, in the US, the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to remain unchanged at 50.0 and 51.3 respectively. The Euro could face challenges as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to consider lowering borrowing costs at its June meeting. This expectation is due to the current inflation rate in the Eurozone, which stands at 2.4%, very close to the ECB's target of 2.0%. President Christine Lagarde recently stated that such action in June is highly likely if data continues to support confidence that inflation will eventually align with the ECB's target over the medium term. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Wednesday as the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated hawkish sentiment towards Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Fed policymakers expressed concern over the lack of progress on inflation, which has been more persistent than expected in early 2024. As a result, the Fed is hesitant to start cutting interest rates. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 20, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading on a stronger note near 1.08800 on Monday in the early hours of Asian trading. The growth of the major pair is supported by the weakening of the US dollar. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson and Mester are scheduled to speak on Monday. The main event in the Eurozone will be the preliminary PMI for May on Thursday. Inflationary pressures eased in April, but this progress is unlikely to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he believes the U.S. central bank will need more data to gain confidence that inflation is steadily falling toward the 2% level. In addition, several Fed officials have emphasized their cautious stance on holding rates longer. Last week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees signs of cooling inflation in the recent CPI report, but prefers to keep an eye on May and June data to make sure inflation doesn't turn the other way. FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester said policy is in a good place and it is premature to say that progress on inflation has stalled. Richmond FRB President Tom Barkin said the central bank needs to keep borrowing costs high for longer to ensure that the inflation target is met. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Shorts to Longs ideaMy EU analysis this week focuses on shorting opportunities. I will look for sells either from the 6-hour supply zone near the current price or, ideally, from the 11-hour supply zone if the price breaches the Asian high and continues upward. If the price opens lower, I will look for buying opportunities at the 4-hour or 3-hour demand zones. Once the price reaches these demand zones, I plan to buy up toward the supply zone, as we are still in a short-term bullish trend indicated by the recent break of structure to the upside. Confluences for EU Sells are as follows: - 11hr supply zone has caused a break of structure to the downside and nearby 6hr supply. - The overall trend on the higher time frame is bearish and the dollar is also overall bullish. - Price has already mitigated 4hr supply might be a start of a bearish trend. - Bullish pressure is getting exhausted after the bullish rallies we saw last week. - Clean 11hr supply that has an imbalance that we could see a clean reaction from P.S. Since the price is between liquidity zones, I will approach these nearby areas with caution and may lower my risk until the price reaches more favourable extreme zones where trades will be more worthwhile. Have a great trading week!
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
EURUSD IN HIGHER-HIGH & HIGHER-LOW MAY TARGET ABOVE 1.09500The pair has recently rallied above the bullish wedge and has been creating higher-high and higher-low for the past few days. IF fibre can rally above resistance at 1.09000, then the next target will be above 1.09500. N.B! - EURUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #eurusd #fibre
Long
by BullBearMkt
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 17, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar made a spectacular surge on the upside to our Inner Currency Rally 1.084 and a lot more. Current market conditions suggest that the Eurodollar may continue upward momentum to complete our Inner Currency Rally 1.091 via the newly created Mean Res 1.089. On the downside, the currency is prone to go down to Mean Sup 1.082 and possibly Mean Sup 1.076.
by TradeSelecter
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 15, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading with a bullish bias around 1.08150 in the early hours of Asian trading on Wednesday. Later, markets may shift to cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Wednesday's highlights will be the first reading of the Eurozone's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the April US consumer price index (CPI). On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation is falling more slowly than expected and the CPI data gave more reason to keep rates higher. Powell added that he believes it is unlikely that the central bank will need to raise interest rates further, even if there is less chance of a rate cut. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said inflation remains too high and the U.S. central bank still has a lot of work to do. These hawkish comments could boost the US Dollar (USD) and put pressure on the major pair in the near term. However, later in the day, US CPI data is due to be released, which could influence the Fed's interest rate decision at the next meeting. Annual core CPI inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in the previous reading. Core CPI inflation is projected to fall to 3.6% in April from 3.8% previously. If the upcoming CPI data meets expectations, it could lead to the prospect of a rate cut. This, in turn, could lead to a decline in the dollar and serve as a tailwind for EUR/USD. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 10, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar fluctuated around our significant Mean resistance level of 1.080. There are projections that the currency may experience an upward surge and complete the Inner Currency Rally of 1.084 before undergoing a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.074 and possibly further down to designated targets. However, it is also possible that the Eurodollar might go down to hit the Mean Support level of 1.074 from its current position.
by TradeSelecter
🚨EURUSD will Go Down by Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern🚨🏃‍♂️ EURUSD is moving near the 🔴 Resistance zone($1.0806-$1.0781) 🔴. 📈According to Classical Technical Analysis , EURUSD seems to have succeeded in forming an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks . 🔔I expect EURUSD to at least decline to the 🎯Target🎯 I have marked on the chart. Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
13
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 08, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair extended its losses for the second consecutive session, trading near 1.07400 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is strengthening on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will extend interest rate hikes. However, weaker US jobs data over the past week has revived hopes of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. On Tuesday, comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari strengthened the US dollar, which led to weaker EUR/USD. Kashkari said that the most likely scenario is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period of time. However, if disinflation returns or there is a significant weakening of the labor market, a rate cut could be considered. In the Eurozone, retail sales (m/m) rose 0.8% in March, recovering from an upwardly revised 0.3% decline in February. This exceeded the expected 0.6% increase. This is the strongest increase in retail activity since September 2022, indicating a strengthening European consumer sector. In addition, retail sales (y/y) rose 0.7% compared to a revised 0.5% fall in February. This marks the first increase in retail sales since September 2022, signaling a positive change in consumer spending trends. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to start reducing borrowing costs in June. According to Business Standard, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that the latest data has bolstered his confidence that inflation is approaching the 2% target. While many ECB officials appear to favor easing measures next month, President Christine Lagarde has not yet proposed further cuts. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD SHORT TO LONG idea (towards 1.08200)My analysis for EU aligns with that of GU in terms of directional bias. I expect price to turn bullish from either of my demand points of interest (POIs), aiming to eventually mitigate the major supply zone within two days. This anticipation stems from the expected substantial reaction at the supply zone. While pursuing the buys aligns with a pro-trend approach, I plan to switch strategies once price reaches the significant supply zone. Currently, the market remains bullish, prompting me to prioritize seeking buying opportunities near demand zones to drive price upward. The most intriguing opportunities for me lie within the demand zones on the 2-hourly, the 22-hourly below, and the two 4-hourly zones at the bottom. Confluences for EU buys are as follows: - Price has recently been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. - 2-day supply zone that needs to get mitigated eventually. - Good demand zones left that price might pick up another bullish rally from. - Liquidity to the upside as well as substantial imbalances that need mitigation. - price has also recently broken structure to the upside once again to confirm the trend. P.S. If the price maintains its upward trajectory, I will wait for it to decelerate and consolidate within my designated area. Upon closer examination, I've identified several refined zones, such as the 4-hour supply zone. In such a scenario, I won't rush but will instead wait for a thorough and significant mitigation before taking action. Have a great trading week guys!
Long
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session, with an upward movement that surpassed our Mean Resistance level at 1.075. As a result, a new resistance mark has been established at 1.080. However, it is projected that the currency will experience a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.066. It will dip further to retest the previously completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060. Furthermore, the currency is anticipated to continue its downward trajectory, reaching our next Inner Currency Dip level at 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Struggles at Key Resistance Ahead of the FedThe pair has managed to stage a rebound from its 2024 lows and reacts positively to today’s preliminary data from Eurozone, which showed Q1 GDP expansion and persistence in headline inflation. As such, the common currency continues its effort to surpass the pivotal resistance confluence, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March-April slump. Successful outcome would negate the downside bias and bring 1.0885 in the spotlight. However, we are cautious around the ascending prospects. The path of least resistance is down, technically and fundamentally. A rejection of the aforementioned critical region would reaffirm the bearish bias and open the door to lower lows (1.0600). The monetary policy differential is unfavorable and EZ core CPI continued to decelerate. The European Central Bank is looking to change tack and slash rates as early as June, dictated by weak growth and progress on inflation. Its US counterpart on the other hand, has adopted a conservative approach due to strong economy, resilient labor market and persistent price pressures that raise the bar for a pivot. The next leg of the move will likely be determined by Wednesday’s policy decision from Fed officials and since no move is projected, investors will be looking for any updates around their rate intentions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
EURUSD will Attack to Support zone⚔️===>>(➡️RR=2.92)🏃‍♂️ EURUSD is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢, but I expect it to be broken based on the explanation below 👇. 🌊According to the theory of Elliot waves , EURUSD seems to have completed the Double Three Correction(WXY ) in the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢. 📈Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , EURUSD has successfully formed an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern Reversal Pattern . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks. 🔔I expect EURUSD to go DOWN at least to the lower line of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern , and EURUSD will probably break the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- EURUSD 🔴Position: Short ✅Entry Point: 1.06975 USD (Limit Order) ⛔️Stop Loss: 1.07420 USD 💰Take Profit: 💰Take Profit: 🎯1.06303 USD👉Risk-To-Reward: 1.51 🎯1.05674 USD👉Risk-To-Reward: 2.92 ⚠️Please don't forget to follow capital management. ⚠️Please pay attention to the style of opening the position. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
5
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 25, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is holding near the psychological 1.07000 level on Thursday during the early Asian session. The moderate rise in the major pair is supported by the weakening US dollar (USD). Later in the day, the preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure will be released. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose 2.6% in March from the previous reading of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 2.5%. Core goods, excluding transportation, rose 0.2% for the month, falling short of the 0.3% forecast. The release of US GDP for the first quarter could provide an indication of how strongly the economy is growing and point to the Fed's next move. If the report shows stronger-than-expected data, it could spark speculation that the Fed will postpone the rate-cutting cycle and strengthen the US dollar. Markets have estimated a nearly 70% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the benchmark rate in September. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are sticking to their plans to cut interest rates this year, even though elevated U.S. inflation could delay the Fed's move to looser policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the central bank may cut the deposit rate from a record high of 4% in June, but is keeping options open on how to proceed. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.07000. If it bounces back, take Buy positions, if it stays below - Sell.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Beginning of Tuesday's trading.. Forex markets 😼Hello traders.. EurUsd is about 87 pips from our monthly support level at 1.057.. not too far. The closest we've come was last Tuesday during the hawkish fed speech. Protecting against higher inflation is indeed important and slowing down economic growth as a result may be the only way. The weekly candle is back to being at Break even. The Daily candle today closed slighty bearish, a doji candle really. We went down during London and retraced the move back p during NY session. TheLow of the day was 4 minutes after New York stock exchange open. We saw a nice continuation of momentum with the new NY 4hr candle, to follow London bearish momentum. However, this was short lived as 1hr candles never quite managed to dig below the 1.06336 weekly support level. It's safe to say at this point that we are ranging and the volatility this week has been low.. but I suppose it's only Monday. End of Monday and around Asian session to begin Tuesday's trading has a tendency to be a turning point in the market for a good run.. How far? not sure.. maybe we can see 30-40 pips down to structural lows and around the weekly level 1.06336 and the Daily level 1.06184. If price pulls up higher, 1.067 could bbe a good entry point for either a small scalp or longer hold back to structural lows as we jsut mentioned. Pay attention to how candles interact with 1.065.. this will give us hints about further direction.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd: Short-Term Eur strength & Pullback possibleHello Traders.. Another week and more price action to anticipate in the Forex market. EurUsd: As we enter the 4th week of April our Monthly candle is still bearish with a solid bearish body. Last week we came very close to a Monthly support level at 1.057. The low of the week was on Tuesday and coincided with a Hawkish Fed speech. The weekly candle closed bullish and we now have a weekly support level at 1.0649. The weekly candle closed a small body doji - looking candle with a larger top wick. The new week gapped up 5 pips. The daily candle's price action from last week looks quite subdued. Looking for buys on EurUsd still apears risky to me as we still have hot jobs data and rising inflation. We had hawkish fed speech last week which means higher potential rates for the USD. This means USD could be increasingly used in the Carry trade, an even better reason to look for USD strength. Not much has changed and yes we can observe a pullback , with Eur Strength. Overall bearish on EurUsd but trading a pullback to the upside is definitely possible. We'll have to see how EurUsd reacts with the Daily resistance level 1.06726. The USD Index ended last week pulling back from a Daily Resistance level.. and we've done exactly that after 8 hours at the beginning of this new week. This could indicate Eur strength in the coming 2 sessions. Although I'm anticpating a higher Vix and lower Oil prices. It may be too early in the week for a Lower EurUsd.. we may observe short term Eur strength as a result.
by ShrewdCatfx
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 22, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.06650 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the pair’s upside might be limited due to the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting a shift to an increasingly hawkish stance. Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary Eurozone HCOB PMI for April on Tuesday ahead of the final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Friday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady in its June meeting. The ECB delivered a firm message that markets should expect an interest rate cut soon if we don’t have a major shock in development. Meanwhile, François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, stated the ECB should cut in June so that higher rates do not cause too much damage to the euro area economy. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, commented that the “probability of June rate cut is increasing, adding that there were caveats, including the risk of higher oil prices. However, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said that the central bank mustn’t rush into further interest rate cuts after a likely first step in June. Additionally, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann, one of the most hawkish members, flagged geopolitical tensions as the biggest threat to interest rate cuts this year. The lower bets on rate cut expectations provide some support to the Euro (EUR). On the other hand, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lift the Greenback against its rivals. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that inflation progress had “stalled” and the Fed’s current restrictive policy is appropriate. While Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic stated that the US central bank wouldn’t cut rates until the end of the year. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of current prices.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Dip of 1.060. However, further selling pressure is reviling a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim Dead-Cat rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.072 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
by TradeSelecter
Change in Sentiment? 😐 EurUsdHello Traders.. EurUsd just dropped off last week. Those market participants who caught this massive selloff may be thinking of taking some chips off the table. This coincides with a bullish trend in bond yields and the S&P futures wasting no time heading to the upside to begin the week. The Iran and Israel conflict adds a layer of complexity to this new week of money movement. In the short term I am looking to the upside on EurUsd as the new weeks kicks off. The previous weekly candle closed with a 14 pips bottom wick and a 195 pips body. Some exhaustion from sellers may cause the buyers to take over to begin the week here for EU. My short-term targets for the next sessions are 1.06840. We may recieve a pullback to consolidate and retest 1.06325 as well prior to more buying pressure on EU. Caution, this is a countertrend analysis and should be taken with a grain of salt. Not Financial advice, just for general information and educational purposes only.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx