Eurodollar
Eur/Usd becoming very OVERSOLD. Folks,
The weekly on eur/usd is becoming very oversold and we are nearing major technicals support levels.
If you take a look in to the DXY (monthly chart) you see we are hitting major technical resistance levels.
This doesn't guarantee any bounce but it increases the probabilities for a bounce.
I am already scaling in SMALL. WHY? Because if the price dips more you can add more. I've learned that not going all-in at once is a better strategy to me.
EUR/USD hits parity as short-term rate differentials widenThe euro-dollar pair ( EUR/USD ) achieved parity today, an occurrence not seen in nearly two decades (November 2002), as a fresh energy crisis in Europe threatens the onset of a recession.
It's been a rough year for the euro, losing nearly 11% of its value versus the dollar since January and 15% over the last 12 months.
The short-term (2-year) bond yields divergence between the US and Europe continues to widen, as the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to pursue distinct monetary policy paths.
The yield on a 2-year US Treasury note is 2.6 percentage points (260 basis points) higher than Germany's yield on the same maturity ( DE02Y ), the largest spread since the start of the year.
The upbeat data on the U.S. job market that was released on Friday cemented analysts' expectations of a further 0.75-percentage-point hike by the Federal Reserve in July, propelling the dollar's broad strength.
The exceptional resiliency of the U.S. job market has bolstered the convictions of an aggressive Federal Reserve. Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased much more than predicted in June (up 372k vs. 265k consensus), the unemployment rate stayed at historically low levels of 3.6%, and wages continued to climb at a solid clip. It implies that the labour market is still exceptionally tight and that the US economy is not yet in a phase of demand contraction, implying the need to persist with interest rate rises at a quick pace.
Even though the 14-day RSI continues to show oversold levels, from a technical point of view, widening US-Europe rate differentials, reflecting differing monetary trajectories by the Fed and ECB, might continue to exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair in the near future.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
SHORT EURO vs US$Euro in a long term downtrend.
Head and Shoulder Pattern
I see a bounce was made and current resistance holding after 3X attempts at $1.06
Failure here and it will retrace to the next support/resistance line at $1.05
Failure to break on the right shoulder --repeating the same pattern as the head did....
Eventual break to $1.037
Divergence on the OVERBOUGHT oscillator
EUR/USD LONGH4 Divergence and it is forming a shark fin on the TDI indicator. EUR/USD is near parity, which is also a key psychological level. 1.00000 is a level that hasn't been touched in 20+ years, making this a significant point of interest and possible reversal. Things to keep in keep in mind: Major German pipeline is currently under maintenance and BOE has not increased interest rates AT ALL in Q2 causing significant EURO weakness.
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0
Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0
Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0
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EURUSD breaks 2016 support! Are we going for the 2000 low?On Friday EUR/USD hit a 20-year low, that's a big big deal, but to every effect in the market the is a cause behind it and if we are to succeed as traders and/or investors we need to understand why markets move because knowing the cause can help us take advantage of the effects!
ONE BIG REASON FOR THE CRASH:
Eurozone's trade surpluses have been completely wiped out because of energy crisis Europe is facing from their failed actions against Russia.
Germany has slipped into trade deficit for 1st time in 31yrs, shortfalls in trade were also observed in France & other EU countries and all of this is taking a big toll on the eurozone currency.
Major banks currently predict that we are heading for parity on EURUSD and there is little hope this will change because there is no "quick fix" for the problems in Europe, it actually seems that things will get much worse before they get better.
A confluence of factors are adding to further downside risk, here are a few key factors to take away with you from this post:
- Inflation (CPI data) is getting out of hand not only in Europe, but the USA too, Poland's CPI data is expected at 15% for example.
- The protests we are seeing in Holland are also taking a toll on the Eurozone
- The UK faces strikes in transportation
- There are big problems in EU airports
- The Biden administration is considering to lower the
Chinese trade tariffs as such would be a drag on the measured headline CPI (that includes taxes)
- The German trade balance is now negative
I can add much more to this list but as you can clearly see... it is all doom and gloom for now, and that means OPPORTUNITY to us traders as the markets are bound to create bigger moves, whether up or down that is for the market to decide... our job is to simply focus on following the market and obeying it!
Hope this post has helped you in one way or another!
Good luck trading!
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💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵(Road Map)!!!🗺️Today, we will check the EURUSD pair technical analysis in the Monthly timeframe chart. The EURUSD pair has been in a downtrend structure for 14 years , and the chart follows a Double Zigzag Correction based on Elliott Wave theory.
The Structure of the microwave C of Main wave Y is Expanding Ending Diagonal . Most probably, microwave 2 of the microwave C of Main wave Y will Finish in the Support Zone and at my TRZ (Time Reversal Zone).
🔅 Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe Monthly ⏰
🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 1.24$ until 1.20$
🟢 Support Zone 🟢: 0.98$ until 0.956$
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
EURUSD | 1 Long / 1 Short scenario | Brussel fallingBe aware this trading scenarios are based on the 15min chart.
Resistance area 1 served as support aswell resistance in the last days. Looking to take one or both trades price should move as shown with the arrows.
Long (Orange arrow)
Requirements:
- Price retakes Resistance area 1
- Price moves atleast to S/R level 1 (higher would be even better)
- Long open when price falls back to Resistance area 1
Target: Former Swinghigh
S-L: See chart - i dont want to see a candle open/close below it
Short (Blue arrow)
Requirements:
- Price breaks above Resistance area but cant close above S/R level 2
- Price falls back under Resistance area 1
- Enter short after a candle opened and closed below Resistance area 1
Target: Psychological level of 1 EUR : 1 USD
S-L: See chart - i dont want to see a candle open/close above it
Good luck
Disclaimer:
- This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor.
- You trade entirely at your own risk
- Make your own research
- Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)
EUR/USD -29/06/2022-• Trend is still bearish despite latest rally
• The pair broke below the rising wedge; a bearish pattern, drawn on the chart yesterday and closed below it, reinforcing the bearish picture
• Also, descending trend line since Feb 2022 still acts as resistance, today near 1.06
• Horizontal resistance highlighted in gray color (around 1.08) is a major resistance to be watched
• As long as the pair is trading below those resistance levels, it is highly likely that we will see lower prices in the coming days/weeks
• Bears had a successful engulfing bearish candle today and are targeting YTD lows at 1.03 followed by 1.02 and parity
• Recession fears, Russia-Ukraine war, FED-ECB policy gap supports the bearish picture
Lower prices expected on EURUSDEURUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0496 (stop at 1.0542)
1.0380 continues to hold back the bears. We look for a temporary move higher. Resistance is located at 1.0500 and should cap gains to this area. We expect a reversal in this move. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 1.0382 and 1.0350
Resistance: 1.0500 / 1.0780 / 1.1470
Support: 1.0380 / 1.0200 / 1.0100
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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$EURUSD - Possible scenariosHi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 Two possible scenarios on EURUSD
🔔 First is the drop to 1.05 and a bounce back to levels near 1.06
🔔 The second is a drop to 1.04 after closing below the 1.05 support.
🔔 Mind the RSI divergence shown on the chart
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
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