Eurodollar
EURUSD Daily Outlook | July 15Daily Outlook:
Previous day's bar eventually broke 0.99999 level and took price all the way down to 0.99528. As long as am concerned, the daily TF is showing more bearish signs where we expect wick fill by today's daily candle. I say that price may kiss 0.99500 today.
Intraday Outlook:
1. There seems to be a range between 1.00476 and 0.99794 zones where we want to see 1 HR break and closure above 1.00476 before we can open buy positions with targets as 1.00844 (37 pips) and 1.01193 (72 pips).
2. The break of 1.00134 is a good signs of bearish presence but must be confirmed by allowing 1HR price bar to close below the zone before we can comfortably take any sell position. Our target for bearish positions are gonna be 0.99794 (34 pips) and 0.99528 (60 pips)
Let me know what you think in the comment section.
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I closed 2 trades with massive profits ( NAS100 sell and EURUSD sell) during my live streaming yesterday, and all my live audience took advantage of this opportunity to secure good wins.
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EUR/USD -15/07/2022-• Pair remains under bearish pressure
• After a successful break of the previous support level at 1.0340, parity level was reached
• Levels sub parity exposed as fundamentals still point to the downside
• A clear break of parity level exposes 0.96 figure
• The latter served as a support back in 2022 where the pair bottomed before starting a massive rally
• Will the 2002 scenario repeat itself in 2022 ?
• If that is the case, the next range would be 0.96-1.03
• Bulls need to bring the pair back above the 1.0340 level to turn the odds in their favor
• FED-ECB policy divergence is still in play as markets are now pricing in a 100 bps move at the next FOMC meeting.
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD
CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement.
Keep in mind the fundamentals:
FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc.
Patience is key!
TJ
Will the bulls continue to defend parity on EURUSD?EURUSD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.0004 (stop at 0.9936)
Short term bearish momentum has stalled. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 1.0181 and 1.0250
Resistance: 1.0200 / 1.0780 / 1.1470
Support: 1.0000 / 0.9600 / 0.9200
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BUY EURUSDJust an idea and trade at your own risk.
EURUSD remains bearish on the monthly timeframe with possible next target to the monthly lower downtrend channel at area 0.90.
EURUSD on the daily timeframe reached the lower downtrend channel (white lines) at parity.
Correction may be under way to the previous broken support and demand zone area (currently resistance and supply zone) at 1.0360-1.0400.
The Euro is under major monthly support Euro / Dollar Parity is in the news, but honestly this currency can go much lower after a minor bounce. Any test of 1.04-5 is an objective short on the euro. Targets are .70 and .55. I know that seems improbable, but the fibs and descending triangle pattern are pointing to those kinds of levels. You can check out what I say about the dollar which I've been bullish on since it was in the 80's.
$EUR - UPDATED CHART (WHERE TO NEXT?)$EUR - UPDATED CHART (WHERE TO NEXT?)
HAPPY FRIDAY!
Soo...what a great week right one of my best weeks in ages great volatility for this summer as its understandable, now we do have NFP but I have ONE last remaining support for EURO to complete this inverse Cup & Handle Pattern.
We could reach 0.99550 areas. Today is another new low but we do also have NFP. Any lower of those areas I expect yr 2000 - 2002 price areas to come into play - PARITY! Next week I will be looking at this pair very careful and I will be sharing in the various platforms I am part of. Also, be wise - Don't be picking bottoms..
Be careful trading out there, keep an eye on the key levels and take care!
TJ
Eur/Usd becoming very OVERSOLD. Folks,
The weekly on eur/usd is becoming very oversold and we are nearing major technicals support levels.
If you take a look in to the DXY (monthly chart) you see we are hitting major technical resistance levels.
This doesn't guarantee any bounce but it increases the probabilities for a bounce.
I am already scaling in SMALL. WHY? Because if the price dips more you can add more. I've learned that not going all-in at once is a better strategy to me.
EUR/USD hits parity as short-term rate differentials widenThe euro-dollar pair ( EUR/USD ) achieved parity today, an occurrence not seen in nearly two decades (November 2002), as a fresh energy crisis in Europe threatens the onset of a recession.
It's been a rough year for the euro, losing nearly 11% of its value versus the dollar since January and 15% over the last 12 months.
The short-term (2-year) bond yields divergence between the US and Europe continues to widen, as the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to pursue distinct monetary policy paths.
The yield on a 2-year US Treasury note is 2.6 percentage points (260 basis points) higher than Germany's yield on the same maturity ( DE02Y ), the largest spread since the start of the year.
The upbeat data on the U.S. job market that was released on Friday cemented analysts' expectations of a further 0.75-percentage-point hike by the Federal Reserve in July, propelling the dollar's broad strength.
The exceptional resiliency of the U.S. job market has bolstered the convictions of an aggressive Federal Reserve. Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased much more than predicted in June (up 372k vs. 265k consensus), the unemployment rate stayed at historically low levels of 3.6%, and wages continued to climb at a solid clip. It implies that the labour market is still exceptionally tight and that the US economy is not yet in a phase of demand contraction, implying the need to persist with interest rate rises at a quick pace.
Even though the 14-day RSI continues to show oversold levels, from a technical point of view, widening US-Europe rate differentials, reflecting differing monetary trajectories by the Fed and ECB, might continue to exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair in the near future.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
SHORT EURO vs US$Euro in a long term downtrend.
Head and Shoulder Pattern
I see a bounce was made and current resistance holding after 3X attempts at $1.06
Failure here and it will retrace to the next support/resistance line at $1.05
Failure to break on the right shoulder --repeating the same pattern as the head did....
Eventual break to $1.037
Divergence on the OVERBOUGHT oscillator
EUR/USD LONGH4 Divergence and it is forming a shark fin on the TDI indicator. EUR/USD is near parity, which is also a key psychological level. 1.00000 is a level that hasn't been touched in 20+ years, making this a significant point of interest and possible reversal. Things to keep in keep in mind: Major German pipeline is currently under maintenance and BOE has not increased interest rates AT ALL in Q2 causing significant EURO weakness.
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0
Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0
Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0
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EURUSD breaks 2016 support! Are we going for the 2000 low?On Friday EUR/USD hit a 20-year low, that's a big big deal, but to every effect in the market the is a cause behind it and if we are to succeed as traders and/or investors we need to understand why markets move because knowing the cause can help us take advantage of the effects!
ONE BIG REASON FOR THE CRASH:
Eurozone's trade surpluses have been completely wiped out because of energy crisis Europe is facing from their failed actions against Russia.
Germany has slipped into trade deficit for 1st time in 31yrs, shortfalls in trade were also observed in France & other EU countries and all of this is taking a big toll on the eurozone currency.
Major banks currently predict that we are heading for parity on EURUSD and there is little hope this will change because there is no "quick fix" for the problems in Europe, it actually seems that things will get much worse before they get better.
A confluence of factors are adding to further downside risk, here are a few key factors to take away with you from this post:
- Inflation (CPI data) is getting out of hand not only in Europe, but the USA too, Poland's CPI data is expected at 15% for example.
- The protests we are seeing in Holland are also taking a toll on the Eurozone
- The UK faces strikes in transportation
- There are big problems in EU airports
- The Biden administration is considering to lower the
Chinese trade tariffs as such would be a drag on the measured headline CPI (that includes taxes)
- The German trade balance is now negative
I can add much more to this list but as you can clearly see... it is all doom and gloom for now, and that means OPPORTUNITY to us traders as the markets are bound to create bigger moves, whether up or down that is for the market to decide... our job is to simply focus on following the market and obeying it!
Hope this post has helped you in one way or another!
Good luck trading!
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💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵(Road Map)!!!🗺️Today, we will check the EURUSD pair technical analysis in the Monthly timeframe chart. The EURUSD pair has been in a downtrend structure for 14 years , and the chart follows a Double Zigzag Correction based on Elliott Wave theory.
The Structure of the microwave C of Main wave Y is Expanding Ending Diagonal . Most probably, microwave 2 of the microwave C of Main wave Y will Finish in the Support Zone and at my TRZ (Time Reversal Zone).
🔅 Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe Monthly ⏰
🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 1.24$ until 1.20$
🟢 Support Zone 🟢: 0.98$ until 0.956$
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD | 1 Long / 1 Short scenario | Brussel fallingBe aware this trading scenarios are based on the 15min chart.
Resistance area 1 served as support aswell resistance in the last days. Looking to take one or both trades price should move as shown with the arrows.
Long (Orange arrow)
Requirements:
- Price retakes Resistance area 1
- Price moves atleast to S/R level 1 (higher would be even better)
- Long open when price falls back to Resistance area 1
Target: Former Swinghigh
S-L: See chart - i dont want to see a candle open/close below it
Short (Blue arrow)
Requirements:
- Price breaks above Resistance area but cant close above S/R level 2
- Price falls back under Resistance area 1
- Enter short after a candle opened and closed below Resistance area 1
Target: Psychological level of 1 EUR : 1 USD
S-L: See chart - i dont want to see a candle open/close above it
Good luck
Disclaimer:
- This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor.
- You trade entirely at your own risk
- Make your own research
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