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EUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 MonthsEUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 Months According to the EUR/USD chart, on 2nd January, the first trading day of the year, the EUR/USD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.025, the lowest mark since November 2022. There are few news events, and the EUR/USD rate decline may be attributed to: → The holiday period still affecting financial markets, reducing liquidity and creating vulnerabilities for volatility spikes; → Market participants potentially rebalancing their portfolios for the new calendar year; → Reassessing the strength of the dollar amid uncertainty about the actual steps of President-elect Trump, whose inauguration is scheduled for this month. Meanwhile, technical analysis of the EUR/USD chart reveals that: → In 2024, price fluctuations formed a downward channel, with key pivot points marked by red circles. Notably, the previous holiday period led to the formation of the first of these points. → The bullish "Cup and Handle" pattern, which we discussed on 30th December, resulted in a false bullish breakout (indicated by an arrow). Seizing the bulls' failure, the bears pushed the price to the lower boundary of the mentioned channel. The area where the lower boundary of the channel intersects the psychological level of 1.025 could serve as strong support. The recovery observed on the morning of 3rd January may confirm this. The holiday period may lead to the formation of a new key pivot point on the EUR/USD chart, as has happened before. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
by FXOpen
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 3, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD paused its four-day losing streak, trading near 1.02700 during the Asian session on Friday. European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday fell short of expectations, which only added to Euro traders' concerns following a soft speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Yannis Stournaras later in the day. According to ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras, the ECB intends to smoothly cut interest rates until 2025. According to Stournaras, the ECB rate is expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2% at the end of this year. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates much more slowly than previously expected in 2025, the EUR interest rate differential will widen significantly by the end of the year, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD in the long term. This is in line with the expectations of some analysts who are calling for the euro to reach parity with the US dollar as early as this year. Pan-European PMI results for December fell slightly to 45.1 against expectations of holding at 45.2. While the data itself had relatively little impact, it helped underscore the growing likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will accelerate rate cuts to support the European economy, even as gasoline prices hit their two-year highs, further confounding Europe's economic outlook. The only significant data on Friday's economic calendar is the results of the ISM US manufacturing PMI, which is expected to remain at the declining 48.4 reading for December. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.02500, if it is fixed below consider Sell positions, if it bounces back consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Market Dynamics: Analyzing Recent Price MovementsFollowing our previous analysis, we anticipated the market's response to last week's robust U.S. economic indicators, particularly regarding the USD's strength against the EUR. After experiencing a notable bearish trend, the euro managed to recoup some losses, specifically retesting our pending order at 1.04380. As I write this article on December 23, 2024, the currency pair trades around 1.04130, providing a rejection of our entry point. On Monday, the U.S. Dollar (USD) stabilized after a significant drop on Friday. This sell-off was prompted by weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Specifically, the core PCE—a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve—rose by 2.8%, falling short of the projected 2.9%. On a month-to-month basis, both headline and core PCE inflation inched up by only 0.1%, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's trajectory concerning interest rate adjustments in 2025. Federal Reserve officials are beginning to signal expectations of fewer rate cuts in the coming year, as the disinflation process appears to be slowing and uncertainties loom over how President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming immigration, trade, and taxation policies could affect the economy. Given the current outlook, we are anticipating a continuation of bearish trends in the market. Previous Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Euro softens as Russia rejects Ukraine peaceThe EUR/USD pair has slipped below 1.0400, reflecting a bearish outlook as recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments weigh on the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented a series of rate cuts, with more expected in 2025, contrasting sharply with the US Federal Reserve's decision to reduce its rate cut projections, thereby strengthening the dollar. The euro's challenges are compounded by geopolitical uncertainties, particularly Russia's rejection of Donald Trump's Ukraine peace plan, which has heightened tensions in European financial markets due to the EU's involvement in proposed peacekeeping efforts. Additionally, the potential expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal could lead to increased energy costs and inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, challenging the ECB's monetary policy efforts and potentially leading to increased euro volatility. Traders should watch for any ECB strategies to manage these inflationary and trade impacts, which could stabilize the euro amidst these challenges.
by tastyfx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current abbreviated trading week, the Eurodollar is exhibiting a narrow trading range above the Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035. Current analysis suggests that the Euro is poised to resume its upward trajectory, with anticipated targets of Mean Resistance 1.051 and a potential extension to Mean Resistance marked at 1.060. It is important to note that a pull-down movement may occur towards Mean Support at 1.039; with a possible retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035, before resuming the upside movement.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Analysis==>>Pumping Soon!?EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is currently moving near the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and an Important Support line . According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD is completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 , so we should expect bullish waves soon . Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect EURUSD to rise to at least $1.049 AFTER the Downtrend line is broken , and if the Resistance zone($1.040-$1.022) is broken, we have to wait for further increases . ⚠️Note: If EURUSD breaks the Important Support line, we can also expect the break of the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022).⚠️ Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour Time frame ⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
9
EUR/USD Break-and-Retest: Next Stop 0.97?Weekly Timeframe: Clear downtrend with a rejection at the 50 MA and a break below key support. Next target lies around 0.97-0.98, a major demand zone. Daily Timeframe: Confirms the bearish bias with a retest of the broken support, now acting as resistance. Price remains below the 50 MA, signaling continued downside. Correlation: Both timeframes align in a bearish trend. Weekly sets the direction, while daily refines entry opportunities with break-and-retest setups.
Short
by unichartz
20
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar exhibited a bearish trend during the initial part of the week; however, it subsequently demonstrated a significant recovery by retesting the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035. This renewed interim rebound is poised to drive the Eurodollar toward the Mean Resistance level of 1.051. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035 remains plausible.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Stagnates Near 1.0500: All Eyes on the Federal ReserveThe EUR/USD currency pair is currently consolidating within a narrow range, lingering around the 1.0500 to 1.0490 levels. As investors turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, market sentiment remains cautious yet focused. Today's scheduled announcement regarding the US Federal Funds Rate, along with the subsequent FOMC statement and press conference, could further bolster the US dollar. Expectations are leaning toward a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Fed. However, it is anticipated that the central bank will accompany this cut with somewhat hawkish commentary regarding future policy guidance. Such remarks could indicate that despite the rate cut, the Fed remains vigilant about economic conditions and inflation pressures. This meeting represents a crucial moment for market participants, as it could usher in significant volatility, particularly ahead of tomorrow's Unemployment Claims report. As traders assess these economic indicators, they are likely to position themselves accordingly, especially if the data reflects a robust labor market. Given the current landscape, our outlook for the euro remains bearish as the dollar shows a tendency to strengthen. The pressure on the eurozone continues to mount amid various economic challenges, making it difficult for the euro to gain traction against its US counterpart. As we navigate this period of uncertainty, traders are advised to keep a close eye on the developments from the Federal Reserve, as well as any shifting dynamics in the broader economic context. The next few sessions could prove pivotal for both currencies, influencing the short-term trading strategies of many market participants. We expect the dollar to maintain its upward trajectory, while the euro may struggle to hold its ground. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 16, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair starts the week with continued gains, trading around 1.05200 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid lower US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market analysts predict the U.S. central bank will cut rates but prepare the market for a pause given the strong U.S. economy and inflation stalled above 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets have already all but priced in the possibility of a quarter basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and dot plots will be closely watched. Earlier this month, Powell struck a cautious tone, saying, “We can afford to be a little more cautious in trying to find a neutral stance.” He indicated he was in no rush to cut rates. The euro gained support after President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist ally Francois Bayrou as France's prime minister, raising hopes for political stability. Macron promised to quickly select a new candidate for the job after Michel Barnier was forced to resign following a confidence vote in parliament. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.05000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.05600 back downThis week, my analysis for EUR/USD aligns closely with GBP/USD, as both pairs have exhibited bearish momentum. However, there are subtle differences in price action as we approach the final month of the year. A key focus is the 4-hour supply zone around 1.05600, which initiated a break of structure to the downside. Once price reaches this area, I’ll look for redistribution on the lower timeframes to confirm a potential sell. If the price moves higher, the 2-hour supply zone just above offers an even better opportunity for shorts. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - Liquidity Below: Significant downside liquidity remains untapped. - Bearish Momentum: The pair has been bearish for the past two weeks. - Break of Structure: Key levels have broken to the downside on the higher timeframe. - DXY Correlation: The dollar index (DXY) supports this bearish setup. - Key Supply Zone: The 4-hour supply zone caused the initial bearish move. Note: If price mitigates the 5-hour demand zone, I may consider a counter-trend buy to take price back up toward the supply zone. However, if this demand zone fails, it will trigger another break of structure (BOS), prompting me to identify a new supply zone for potential shorts. Stay disciplined and have a strong trading week—let’s close Q4 on a high note!
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR - LONG - Swing Trading*This is a risky trade since if it breaks support it can take us to very low levels, which is why an appropriate stop loss must be used. We are in a support between 1.042 and 1.045 that is holding up very well until now. Now that time has passed, it seems we are close to breaking 1.05 and will remain there in the following days. It is necessary to give the trade time of around 6 to 14 days to reach the targets. Targets: T1: 1.059 - 1.060 (protect or take partial) T2: 1.065 (close - 6 days) T3: 1.080 (close - 14 days)
Long
by leonardobarriosr69
EURUSD: Possible Breakout of Downtrend Line?On the 1-hour chart for EUR/USD, the price is currently testing a descending trendline that has served as dynamic resistance over the past few days. After bouncing off a support level around 1.0453, the pair displays signs of strength and is nearing a crucial decision-making zone. The horizontal resistance at 1.0490 aligns with the trendline, and breaking through this area could signal a potential short-term bullish reversal. A potential buying opportunity may arise if EUR/USD successfully breaks above the downtrend line and subsequently retests the broken level, which could act as support. Expected Pattern : Breakout followed by Pullback. Buy Scenario : Confirmation: A breakout above 1.0490 with a strong close, followed by a pullback to retest this level as support. Entry Point: During the pullback, near the 1.0490 area (previous resistance potentially turning into support). Stop Loss: Set below 1.0475 to protect against false breakouts. Primary Target (TP1): 1.0560, a horizontal resistance (approximately 70 pips gain). Secondary Target (TP2): 1.0600, a psychological level and key resistance (approximately 110 pips gain). Alternative Scenario: Bearish Continuation If the price fails to surpass the 1.0490 resistance and drops below 1.0475, a retest of the support at 1.0450 is probable. Possible Sell : Close below 1.0453, targeting 1.0430 or lower. In Summary The primary scenario indicates a bullish outlook if EUR/USD breaks and holds above 1.0490, with potential targets at 1.0560 and 1.0600. However, traders should keep an eye on price behavior at the resistance level, as a rejection may trigger renewed selling pressure. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
1
EURUSD_1D&1W_SellAnalysis and review of the economy and the Eurodollar chart Elliott wave analysis style Mid-term and long-term time frames The euro is in a downward trend. Trading position is from sell to buy. In the long term, the market has entered a large ABC correction after completing five rising waves, which is currently in wave C. Wave C consists of five downward waves, which is currently on the way down as wave 5. The main resistance and ceiling of wave 4 is 1.06100 The targets and support numbers are 1.04070 and 1.02020 respectively, and the last target and support number is 1.00000. Euro zone is not in good condition according to data chart conditions
Short
by Elliottwaveofficial
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance. Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%. Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%. The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD: Market Anticipation Ahead of Key Economic ReportsAs the London trading session unfolds on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the 1.0580 mark. Investors are gearing up for significant economic events this week, including the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, set to be released on Wednesday. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, making this week crucial for market participants seeking insights into future monetary policy shifts. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has shown a lack of substantial movement over the past week, remaining firmly below the 1.0600 resistance level. Traders are closely watching how the currency pair interacts with this barrier, as it could dictate the next direction for the market. With speculation surrounding a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, Wednesday's inflation figures may be the crucial factor influencing the Fed's decision. Analysts predict that the annual consumer price inflation will slightly increase to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year. Given the current landscape, our strategy is to remain on the sidelines as we await the CPI data on Wednesday and the Unemployment Claims report on Thursday. While our overall bias leans bearish, we believe it is prudent to refrain from taking any positions until the price potentially approaches a significant demand zone. This approach allows for a more informed entry that aligns with market developments. In summary, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture as investors anticipate key economic reports that could have lasting effects on the currency pair's trajectory. With the market sentiment leaning toward caution, all eyes will be on the data releases this week. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Short term short to long idea pending...This week, my focus for EUR/USD is on the supply zone near 1.05800. I anticipate a reaction from this level, making it a key area for potential sells at the start of the week. Following this initial move, I expect a bullish rally to develop midweek. If the price drops to 1.05200, aligning with my 11-hour demand zone, I’ll shift my focus to potential buys. After receiving valid lower-timeframe confirmations, I plan to target the nearest liquidity pool to the upside as the price resumes its bullish trend. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: Shift in Market Character: Price has shown signs of a downside reversal, suggesting a potential sell-off. Unmitigated Supply Zone: A clean 2-hour supply zone remains untapped. Liquidity Below: There’s significant liquidity to the downside that price may target. Trend Recalibration: Despite the overall bullish trend, a pullback is necessary for continuation. Note: If the supply zone at 1.05800 fails to hold, it will further confirm bullish momentum. In this case, I’ll wait for a nearby demand zone to form, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the move to the upside. Patience will be key in this scenario.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week. From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook. Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1