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Eurodollar

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 08, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair extended its losses for the second consecutive session, trading near 1.07400 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is strengthening on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will extend interest rate hikes. However, weaker US jobs data over the past week has revived hopes of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. On Tuesday, comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari strengthened the US dollar, which led to weaker EUR/USD. Kashkari said that the most likely scenario is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period of time. However, if disinflation returns or there is a significant weakening of the labor market, a rate cut could be considered. In the Eurozone, retail sales (m/m) rose 0.8% in March, recovering from an upwardly revised 0.3% decline in February. This exceeded the expected 0.6% increase. This is the strongest increase in retail activity since September 2022, indicating a strengthening European consumer sector. In addition, retail sales (y/y) rose 0.7% compared to a revised 0.5% fall in February. This marks the first increase in retail sales since September 2022, signaling a positive change in consumer spending trends. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to start reducing borrowing costs in June. According to Business Standard, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that the latest data has bolstered his confidence that inflation is approaching the 2% target. While many ECB officials appear to favor easing measures next month, President Christine Lagarde has not yet proposed further cuts. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD SHORT TO LONG idea (towards 1.08200)My analysis for EU aligns with that of GU in terms of directional bias. I expect price to turn bullish from either of my demand points of interest (POIs), aiming to eventually mitigate the major supply zone within two days. This anticipation stems from the expected substantial reaction at the supply zone. While pursuing the buys aligns with a pro-trend approach, I plan to switch strategies once price reaches the significant supply zone. Currently, the market remains bullish, prompting me to prioritize seeking buying opportunities near demand zones to drive price upward. The most intriguing opportunities for me lie within the demand zones on the 2-hourly, the 22-hourly below, and the two 4-hourly zones at the bottom. Confluences for EU buys are as follows: - Price has recently been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. - 2-day supply zone that needs to get mitigated eventually. - Good demand zones left that price might pick up another bullish rally from. - Liquidity to the upside as well as substantial imbalances that need mitigation. - price has also recently broken structure to the upside once again to confirm the trend. P.S. If the price maintains its upward trajectory, I will wait for it to decelerate and consolidate within my designated area. Upon closer examination, I've identified several refined zones, such as the 4-hour supply zone. In such a scenario, I won't rush but will instead wait for a thorough and significant mitigation before taking action. Have a great trading week guys!
Long
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session, with an upward movement that surpassed our Mean Resistance level at 1.075. As a result, a new resistance mark has been established at 1.080. However, it is projected that the currency will experience a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.066. It will dip further to retest the previously completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060. Furthermore, the currency is anticipated to continue its downward trajectory, reaching our next Inner Currency Dip level at 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Struggles at Key Resistance Ahead of the FedThe pair has managed to stage a rebound from its 2024 lows and reacts positively to today’s preliminary data from Eurozone, which showed Q1 GDP expansion and persistence in headline inflation. As such, the common currency continues its effort to surpass the pivotal resistance confluence, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March-April slump. Successful outcome would negate the downside bias and bring 1.0885 in the spotlight. However, we are cautious around the ascending prospects. The path of least resistance is down, technically and fundamentally. A rejection of the aforementioned critical region would reaffirm the bearish bias and open the door to lower lows (1.0600). The monetary policy differential is unfavorable and EZ core CPI continued to decelerate. The European Central Bank is looking to change tack and slash rates as early as June, dictated by weak growth and progress on inflation. Its US counterpart on the other hand, has adopted a conservative approach due to strong economy, resilient labor market and persistent price pressures that raise the bar for a pivot. The next leg of the move will likely be determined by Wednesday’s policy decision from Fed officials and since no move is projected, investors will be looking for any updates around their rate intentions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
EURUSD will Attack to Support zone⚔️===>>(➡️RR=2.92)🏃‍♂️ EURUSD is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢, but I expect it to be broken based on the explanation below 👇. 🌊According to the theory of Elliot waves , EURUSD seems to have completed the Double Three Correction(WXY ) in the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢. 📈Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , EURUSD has successfully formed an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern Reversal Pattern . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks. 🔔I expect EURUSD to go DOWN at least to the lower line of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern , and EURUSD will probably break the 🟢 Support zone($1.0695-$1.0626) 🟢. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- EURUSD 🔴Position: Short ✅Entry Point: 1.06975 USD (Limit Order) ⛔️Stop Loss: 1.07420 USD 💰Take Profit: 💰Take Profit: 🎯1.06303 USD👉Risk-To-Reward: 1.51 🎯1.05674 USD👉Risk-To-Reward: 2.92 ⚠️Please don't forget to follow capital management. ⚠️Please pay attention to the style of opening the position. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
5
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 25, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is holding near the psychological 1.07000 level on Thursday during the early Asian session. The moderate rise in the major pair is supported by the weakening US dollar (USD). Later in the day, the preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure will be released. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose 2.6% in March from the previous reading of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 2.5%. Core goods, excluding transportation, rose 0.2% for the month, falling short of the 0.3% forecast. The release of US GDP for the first quarter could provide an indication of how strongly the economy is growing and point to the Fed's next move. If the report shows stronger-than-expected data, it could spark speculation that the Fed will postpone the rate-cutting cycle and strengthen the US dollar. Markets have estimated a nearly 70% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the benchmark rate in September. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are sticking to their plans to cut interest rates this year, even though elevated U.S. inflation could delay the Fed's move to looser policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the central bank may cut the deposit rate from a record high of 4% in June, but is keeping options open on how to proceed. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.07000. If it bounces back, take Buy positions, if it stays below - Sell.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Beginning of Tuesday's trading.. Forex markets 😼Hello traders.. EurUsd is about 87 pips from our monthly support level at 1.057.. not too far. The closest we've come was last Tuesday during the hawkish fed speech. Protecting against higher inflation is indeed important and slowing down economic growth as a result may be the only way. The weekly candle is back to being at Break even. The Daily candle today closed slighty bearish, a doji candle really. We went down during London and retraced the move back p during NY session. TheLow of the day was 4 minutes after New York stock exchange open. We saw a nice continuation of momentum with the new NY 4hr candle, to follow London bearish momentum. However, this was short lived as 1hr candles never quite managed to dig below the 1.06336 weekly support level. It's safe to say at this point that we are ranging and the volatility this week has been low.. but I suppose it's only Monday. End of Monday and around Asian session to begin Tuesday's trading has a tendency to be a turning point in the market for a good run.. How far? not sure.. maybe we can see 30-40 pips down to structural lows and around the weekly level 1.06336 and the Daily level 1.06184. If price pulls up higher, 1.067 could bbe a good entry point for either a small scalp or longer hold back to structural lows as we jsut mentioned. Pay attention to how candles interact with 1.065.. this will give us hints about further direction.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd: Short-Term Eur strength & Pullback possibleHello Traders.. Another week and more price action to anticipate in the Forex market. EurUsd: As we enter the 4th week of April our Monthly candle is still bearish with a solid bearish body. Last week we came very close to a Monthly support level at 1.057. The low of the week was on Tuesday and coincided with a Hawkish Fed speech. The weekly candle closed bullish and we now have a weekly support level at 1.0649. The weekly candle closed a small body doji - looking candle with a larger top wick. The new week gapped up 5 pips. The daily candle's price action from last week looks quite subdued. Looking for buys on EurUsd still apears risky to me as we still have hot jobs data and rising inflation. We had hawkish fed speech last week which means higher potential rates for the USD. This means USD could be increasingly used in the Carry trade, an even better reason to look for USD strength. Not much has changed and yes we can observe a pullback , with Eur Strength. Overall bearish on EurUsd but trading a pullback to the upside is definitely possible. We'll have to see how EurUsd reacts with the Daily resistance level 1.06726. The USD Index ended last week pulling back from a Daily Resistance level.. and we've done exactly that after 8 hours at the beginning of this new week. This could indicate Eur strength in the coming 2 sessions. Although I'm anticpating a higher Vix and lower Oil prices. It may be too early in the week for a Lower EurUsd.. we may observe short term Eur strength as a result.
by ShrewdCatfx
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 22, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.06650 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the pair’s upside might be limited due to the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting a shift to an increasingly hawkish stance. Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary Eurozone HCOB PMI for April on Tuesday ahead of the final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Friday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady in its June meeting. The ECB delivered a firm message that markets should expect an interest rate cut soon if we don’t have a major shock in development. Meanwhile, François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, stated the ECB should cut in June so that higher rates do not cause too much damage to the euro area economy. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, commented that the “probability of June rate cut is increasing, adding that there were caveats, including the risk of higher oil prices. However, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said that the central bank mustn’t rush into further interest rate cuts after a likely first step in June. Additionally, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann, one of the most hawkish members, flagged geopolitical tensions as the biggest threat to interest rate cuts this year. The lower bets on rate cut expectations provide some support to the Euro (EUR). On the other hand, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lift the Greenback against its rivals. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that inflation progress had “stalled” and the Fed’s current restrictive policy is appropriate. While Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic stated that the US central bank wouldn’t cut rates until the end of the year. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of current prices.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Dip of 1.060. However, further selling pressure is reviling a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim Dead-Cat rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.072 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
by TradeSelecter
Change in Sentiment? 😐 EurUsdHello Traders.. EurUsd just dropped off last week. Those market participants who caught this massive selloff may be thinking of taking some chips off the table. This coincides with a bullish trend in bond yields and the S&P futures wasting no time heading to the upside to begin the week. The Iran and Israel conflict adds a layer of complexity to this new week of money movement. In the short term I am looking to the upside on EurUsd as the new weeks kicks off. The previous weekly candle closed with a 14 pips bottom wick and a 195 pips body. Some exhaustion from sellers may cause the buyers to take over to begin the week here for EU. My short-term targets for the next sessions are 1.06840. We may recieve a pullback to consolidate and retest 1.06325 as well prior to more buying pressure on EU. Caution, this is a countertrend analysis and should be taken with a grain of salt. Not Financial advice, just for general information and educational purposes only.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has completed an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. This momentum is expected to generate further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.075 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
by TradeSelecter
EurUsd : Usd Fundamental dominance ⚗️Hello traders.. so yes indeed we did get a very nice push down on EurUsd with CPI data. I put out Short Analyses on Sunday/Monday around Pre-London outlining the fear and market uncertainty that increasing inflation brings into the markets. The inflation reading CPI was expected to rise from 3,2% to 3.4% YoY. The reading came out as 3.5% YoY and we dropped hard on EurUsd. The price action preceding CPI data was suspicious as we had a SHooting star candle last Thursday followed by a hanging man candle on Friday.. caused by strong jobs data. The Monday daily candle this week closed bullish yes, but this candle was less than half the size of the large bullish engulfing candle last wednesday. It was also on a Monday & we still had the rest of the week's price action to observe. On Tuesday , Yesterday, we printed another shooting star candle as we pinned past the previous week's high price. See what I'm seeing here? Then we couple this withg strong USD jobs data last friday and we have many confluences for a decrease in the market. The best part is that you dont even need to hold tthrough news. You can wait until the data comes out and then trade with the momentum on the 1m timeframe. For the new day of trading, I can observe EurUsd continuing to decrease although we are at a Daily support level 1.07422. This is a rare occasion when I completely okay selling at support lol. This is because of fundamentals and a nice pullback for liquidity early in the month for EurUsd. The first week of April was liquidity. Target for end of week on EurUsd is 1.06882
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd.. End of week Momentum 🕴️Hello traders.. we have the last 2 trading sessions of the week here. The monthly/weekly/Daily are all bearish. 4Hr market structure is bearish and we are creating a new 4hr resistance zone at 1.07261 after this 4hr candles closes in 30 minutes. Today we observed a continuation on EurUsd which was forecasted inadvance on this channel. It was relatively straight forward given the current fundamental backdrop in the markets with strong jobs datta last week and 2 consecutive inflation increases for March and April CPI releases. The large bearish engulfing candle also gave it away.. I really dont want to know who was trading against the trend this week. Anyways we currently have momentum in the market and I believe we will retest the previous daily low at 1.06992 4hr support zone. We outlined this zone in the analysis yesterday as well. We rejected this zone at London close during the New york session today. We reached my short target for the week already.. 1.06992. We have a Daily support level at 1.07086. It's possible we may ignore all level's and drop to the next key level , weekly level 1.06834. We have consumer sentiment for USD forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point. The news may act as an catayst to continue dropping or Pullback to end the week. Important levels to watch 1.07261 and 1.07086. Watching how candles interact with these levels.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EURUSD Outlook: Support Strength and Potential Upside MomentumAmidst the ever-fluctuating landscape of the foreign exchange market, the EURUSD pair has captured the attention of traders following a notable drop to 1.071 in response to recent economic developments. As I compose this article, the pair finds itself at a critical juncture, supported by a confluence of factors including strong technical support and contrasting economic data releases. At present, the EURUSD pair has established a robust support level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This convergence of technical indicators underscores the significance of this support area, potentially paving the way for a reversal in price dynamics. Recent economic data releases have added complexity to the market narrative. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month (m/m) report has exerted a negative impact on the US economy, suggesting potential inflationary pressures. Conversely, the Unemployment Claims data has painted a positive picture for the US labor market, indicating resilience and stability. In light of these developments, our analysis suggests a compelling trading idea: a rebound from the support areas. Our viewpoint is anchored in the belief that the EURUSD pair is currently trading within a range-bound environment, presenting an opportunity for a bullish impulse towards higher levels. However, it's essential to approach this trading idea with caution and meticulous planning. While technical indicators and economic data provide valuable insights, market sentiment and geopolitical factors can introduce unexpected volatility. Therefore, risk management is paramount in executing this trading strategy effectively.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Has the Market Priced In CPI Data? 🔕As we enter the 5th trading session of the week, The monthly candle and weekly candles are still bullish. The Daily candle closed bullish to begin the week(Monday) and it appears that the market has possibly priced in the not-so-great data forecasted to be released on Wednesday. The Euro went up on a Monday with inflation forecasted to increase for the USD on Wednesday. Maybe we will continue to ascend on EurUsd as the market shrugs off increasing inflation for the USD. This doesnt make sense to me because the USD is a safe haven in times of uncertainty. I'm anticpating that this early push to higher prices early in the week is a discount as the price for EU will be alot lower to end the week(like 1.0805 4hr level or 1.0771 weekly level) And this will be a 2nd consecutive month where inflation increases. The last time we had 2 consecutive months where (USD) CPI increased was September 23' and July 22'. More details below.. make sure to check out the snapshots! July 22' CPI(for June22') increase for 2 months in a row.. price dropped 100 pips the next day , pulled bac 315 pips the next 19 daily candles before dropping 750 pips across the next 34 daily candles Sept 23' CPI release (For Aug23') increase for 2 months in a row.. EU went down 280 pips in the next 13 daily candles
Short
by ShrewdCatfx