Get started

Eurodollarchart

EUR/USD analysis: US-EU natural gas gap narrowsRecent moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate have been driven primarily by the price differential between natural gas in the United States and Europe, rather than by the ECB's historic rate hike last week. Over the last 90 days, the correlation coefficient between EUR/USD and US-EU gas price differentials is 0.88, indicating a very strong relationship between the two variables. The price of gas in Europe has decreased drastically over the course of the past week, with the Dutch TTF benchmark falling by nearly 40% from its highs of €330/Mwh to its current level of €190/Mwh. This was aided by higher-than-expected EU gas storage levels at this time of year, as well as speculation in Europe about a natural gas price cap. When measured in dollars per million British thermal units ($/MMbtu), the European Dutch TTF is around $61/MMbtu right now, or about $53 more expensive than the US Henry Hub gas price, but significantly lower than the previous price-gap peak of $92/MMbtu. The narrowing Henry Hub-TTF price spread from $92/MMbtu to $53/MMbtu has helped the EUR/USD rally from 0.987 to 1.011. What next can we expect? This week, European nations are expected to announce long-awaited energy emergency measures aimed at lowering skyrocketing gas prices and alleviating the pressures associated with a complete Russian gas shutdown. If the market sees the announcements about energy policy as bad news for European gas prices (Dutch TTF), the spread between European and US gas prices may continue to narrow, which would sustain the euro in the short term. However, despite the fact that the price difference between European Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub gas has narrowed, European gas is still nearly eight times more expensive than US gas. This continues to be a significant drag on the European growth outlook, thus capping the euro's upside potential in the medium term. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
2
Eurodollar, Negative Interest Rates, and the S&P (Post 8ish)Twice since 2000 the eurodollar future as pumped to near 100 and at both times the midpoint consolidation marked a bull trap within the S&P. Our current set of circumstances is unique as a third touch at resistance puts the eurodollar future above 100, which signals negative interest rates in the real world and outside the control of the Federal Reserve. How the Fed will respond to this remains to be seen. How market will respond to this remains to be seen. There are several countries with interest rates ranging from -0.1 to -0.75 and if the Eurodollar goes above 100 we should see a whole lot more. www.investopedia.com The chart below zooms in on the eurodollar and SPX. The eurodollar and SPX both hit a local low at the same time and the Eurodollar shows a textbook BARR bottom. It is clear that the flagpole bewteen consolidation 1 and 2 was timed with the dump in SPX. Consolidation 2 overlaps what I believe to be a bear trap in the eurodollar. Another flag pole should throw SPX price action to the ground. thepatternsite.com Here is a side by side view on the eurodollar and S&P. As I have recently been mentioning elsewhere I am using the Volatility Stop to try and help be refine the timing of my entries and steadying my hands to help me let my winners run when they are in a consolidation pattern and I start to doubt my big picture. The chart has a lot of sound theory, SPX support flipping to resistance, a indicator suggesting trend reversal on SPX, a micro acceding triangle in the Eurodollar chart and a stop loss all in one. If we see the SPX price action reverse and close a candle body above 3166 the trade is over or on hold. If the eurodollar dumps as the acceding triangle fails to to perform the trade is canceled or on hold. Here is another look at an asset that had a BARR bottom and hit full flag pole performance after Consolidation 2. There are a lot of differences between the eurodollar and bitcoin and the main one would be the macro-structure both are in. Key would be bitcoin hitting a lower high on this BARR bottom but I am calling for a higher high on the eurodollar. Clear performance should only be a week or two away. Really close. Of course, I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a certified market technician. Take a look at my linked post, you will see me being right on a lot of theory, but you will also see me getting the timing wrong quite a bit. There was still a lot of money to be made on the swing trades, but I was looking for that big move that I think is coming shortly. I still see this as a subvert currency war against China due to their eurodollar exposure and how the US has been probably using the Dollar Milkshake Theory to influence the dollar shortage so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially in the Chinese market.
GShort
by This_Guhy
2