EURUSD - PoVThe EUR/USD exchange rate is influenced by several economic and political factors, suggesting that the euro may continue to weaken in the coming weeks. On one side, the United States is implementing expansive fiscal policies that could strengthen the dollar, such as economic stimulus and increased public spending. These factors, along with potential protectionist measures like tariffs on Europe, could further weaken the euro by reducing the competitiveness of European exports. Additionally, the **Federal Reserve's** monetary policy, which has raised interest rates to combat inflation, makes the dollar more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the U.S. currency. The United States' energy independence, due to increased domestic production of gas and oil, has also reduced its reliance on imports, which further strengthens the dollar compared to the euro.
On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing a series of economic and political challenges that are putting pressure on the single currency. High inflation is eroding purchasing power across the Eurozone, and despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates to combat it, economic growth remains slow. This divergence from the United States, where growth has been more dynamic, amplifies the euro's weakness. Moreover, the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, worsened by the war in Ukraine and reduced gas supplies from Russia, has increased costs and slowed the competitiveness of European businesses. In this context, political uncertainties in some Eurozone countries and the ECB’s less aggressive economic management compared to the Fed further contribute to the euro's weakness.
Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar, driven by U.S. policies and growing energy independence, and the structural weakness of the Eurozone, are likely to continue pushing the EUR/USD lower in the coming weeks.
