Repaying the Italian debt in 40 years. The method.
Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an ambitious, innovative and potentially revolutionary idea for the management of the Italian public debt. A strategy that, in theory, could heal the enormous accumulated debt and bring Italy to a stronger and more stable financial position. Let's find out together how it could work.
The basic idea
Italy, with a public debt that amounts to about 2,900 billion euros, pays 70 billion euros in interest annually to its creditors. However, imagine an alternative scenario in which those 70 billion, instead of being paid for the payment of interest, are invested in index funds with an estimated average annual return of 10%. Furthermore, the profits generated would be reinvested annually. It is a solution that is based on the power of compound interest.
From the second year, Italy would also have the 70 billion euros available annually no longer tied to the payment of interest. These funds could be used in strategic ways to support economic recovery.
Agreements with creditors
To make this proposal feasible, Italy would have to negotiate an agreement with creditors. The agreement would include a temporary suspension of interest payments, with the promise that the State will repay the entire debt within 40 years, also guaranteeing a compensatory interest of 10% as a "disturbance".
This implies that creditors must accept a long-term vision, trusting in the profitability of investments and the ability of the Italian State to honor the final commitment.
Simulation: how it could work
If the 70 billion were invested from the first year in index funds with an average annual return of 10%, the capital would grow exponentially thanks to compound interest. Over 40 years, the investment would accumulate over 3,241 billion euros, a sum sufficient to repay the public debt of 2,900 billion and to provide a surplus to satisfy the extra interest promised to creditors.
Meanwhile, from the second year, Italy would have at its disposal the 70 billion annually previously earmarked for interest payments. Over 40 years, this figure would represent a total of 2,800 billion euros, which could be used to:
Strengthen strategic infrastructure in the transport, energy and digital sectors.
Reduce the tax burden and encourage economic growth.
Improve social services, such as healthcare, welfare and education.
Further reduce the residual debt, strengthening the country's financial stability.
Conclusion
With this strategy, Italy would not only repay its public debt, but would also start an unprecedented phase of economic recovery. The combination of compound interest and the reallocation of freed funds represents an innovative vision to solve one of the main economic challenges of our time.
However, the implementation of such an ambitious plan would require financial discipline, political stability and careful management of investments. Furthermore, it would be essential to negotiate a transparent and advantageous agreement with creditors, ensuring trust and credibility in international markets.
Whether this is a utopia or a real opportunity will depend on the ability to imagine and adopt bold solutions for the good of the country.
Europe
DEFENSE EU vs USEU defense massively outperforming the US up 50% from the lows.
Lockheed Martin is forced to console American allies, convincing them not to abandon the US Defense industry as Trump completely destroys it with his pro-Russia behavior.
I don't see any way back to NATO normal. Trump has weaponized the US defense industry against our (former allies?) allies and that is unacceptable. The US defense industry mostly sells $107 billion annually to NATO, EU nations.
This win-win EU-US relationship between our allies has made it possible for the US to develope and sustain military technology we would otherwise not have been able to afford alone.
So America first? Not really. More like America last!
At any rate, should a downturn occur and need to be long. #EUAD is a good place to be.
Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls
Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market.
In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations.
Trump-Zelensky Phone Call
The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia.
Trump-Putin Call
The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5.
Impact on the Forex Market
These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed.
Conclusion
The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
Geopolitical Analysis and Impacts on Currency Markets
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how recent geopolitical news is impacting the Forex market, analyzing the main currency pairs and providing a detailed technical picture.
Current Geopolitical Context
This week, the geopolitical landscape has been characterized by a series of significant events. Among them, tensions between the United States and Russia have dominated the scene, with a phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that has opened up the possibility of a negotiation in Ukraine. However, the situation on the ground remains critical, with Russian forces advancing in several Ukrainian regions2. Furthermore, uncertainty over gas supplies in Europe has led to significant volatility in energy markets, with the price of gas falling by 3%.
Impacts on the Forex Market
Geopolitical tensions have had a direct impact on the Forex market, influencing volatility and capital flows. For example:
EUR/USD: The pair has been showing a bearish trend, influenced by economic uncertainty in Europe and the strength of the dollar as a safe haven.
USD/JPY: The dollar has gained ground against the yen, thanks to the perception of economic stability in the United States.
GBP/USD: The British pound has been under pressure due to concerns about economic growth in the United Kingdom.
Technical Analysis
A technical analysis of the major currency pairs reveals the following trends:
EUR/USD: Technical indicators suggest a "sell" position, with key support at 1.0832 and resistance at 1.0862.
USD/JPY: The pair is showing "buy" signals, with an uptrend supported by resistance at 148.09.
GBP/USD: Indicators are mixed, with resistance at 1.2944 and support at 1.2920.
Conclusion
Geopolitical dynamics continue to play a crucial role in determining the movements of the Forex market. Investors should carefully monitor global developments and use technical tools to make informed decisions. The current volatility offers opportunities, but also requires careful risk management.
I hope this analysis has been useful to you in better understanding the connections between geopolitics and Forex. Stay tuned for more updates!
Europe Vs US Break Out!This chart suggests huge long-term implications after breaking for the 2nd time this 16-year downtrend. EU since Trump took office has outperformed the US by 23%!
More than half of that has occurred since the ambush on Zeleneskyy in the Oval Office.
While no new high has been made yet to confirm, it is noteworthy that money may be flowing toward the EU more than the US for a decade or more.
EU has a much lower debt to GDO at 80% than the US at 125%. Stock valuations are much more attractive than in the US. So much so that I labeled the EU as a value trap. Not anymore!
The biggest obstacle right now is how much would a US recession impact the EU. Even if it does, I expect the EU to perform much better than the US. As such this chart should continue to outperform.
I have another post up you may want to follow.
Europe - America War, Impact on Forex
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important issue that is shaking up the international market: the trade war between the European Union and the United States. Recently, the European Union responded to the duties imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% duties on all wines, champagnes and spirits from France and other countries represented by the EU2.
This escalation of trade tensions will certainly have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Let's see together what the consequences could be:
Market Volatility: Trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies will increase the volatility of the FOREX market. Investors will seek safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), increasing the demand for these currencies.
Euro (EUR) depreciation: The euro could come under downward pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs on key EU sectors, such as wine. The reduction in exports of wine and other alcoholic products could negatively impact the EU's trade balance.
US dollar (USD) appreciation: The dollar could strengthen further, as investors view the US as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty. However, the increase in tariffs could also lead to higher inflation in the US, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates.
Impact on the currencies of wine exporting countries: The currencies of major European wine exporters, such as the euro (EUR) and the Swedish krona (SEK), could come under downward pressure due to the decrease in exports to the US.
In conclusion, the tariff war between the European Union and the US will have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more updates and market analysis!
Happy trading to all!
Europe’s defence awakeningThe race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms.
Why is European defence spending rising?
For decades, the US has outspent Europe on defence, contributing more than two-thirds of NATO’s1 overall budget. However, NATO estimates that in 2024, 23 out of 32 members met the 2% GDP2 defence spending target, compared to just seven members in 2022 and three in 20143. More ambitious goals are being discussed. Poland is leading the way with a 4.12% of GDP2 defence budget, while discussions at NATO suggest some countries may need to increase spending to 3% or higher1.
Adding another layer of complexity is the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which is beginning to reshape US defence priorities. The shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts under DOGE is putting financial pressure on defence companies most exposed to the US, which may see constraints on long-term spending commitments. This could have two contrasting effects: while it may limit US capability to fund
European defence through NATO, it could also drive European nations to increase domestic procurement and reduce dependency on US defence systems.
Additionally, emerging security threats, including cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology, and the growing presence of authoritarian regimes, have reinforced the need for increased defence investments. Europe’s reliance on outdated Cold War-era military equipment is another critical factor, pushing leaders to modernise their arsenals.
How will Europe fund its defence expansion?
Ramping up defence spending is a monumental task, especially given high sovereign debt levels across Europe. Yet, leaders are exploring creative solutions to secure the necessary funding. One approach is to reallocate existing European Union (EU) budgets, with discussions centring on repurposing unspent Cohesion Funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. However, legal restrictions within EU treaties may limit their direct application to military expenditures.
Another potential route is the issuance of European Defence Bonds, mirroring the successful NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery fund. By pooling resources at the EU level, this could offer a coordinated and cost-effective funding mechanism.
At the same time, private investment and public-private partnerships are gaining traction. Defence contractors and institutional investors are increasingly seen as strategic partners in financing large-scale projects, particularly in weapons systems, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Governments may leverage these collaborations to accelerate procurement and technological advancements.
Despite these options, one thing is clear—Europe must find a sustainable funding model to support its defence ambitions without derailing economic stability. Whether through EU-level financing, national budget reallocations, or private-sector involvement, securing long-term defence investment will be paramount in ensuring Europe’s security and strategic autonomy.
Impact on defence stocks: can the strong run continue?
European defence stocks have had a strong run since 2022, driven by surging order books, government contracts, and the realisation that military spending is no longer optional. Over the past year, Europe defence stocks rose 40.8%, outpacing broader European equities (+11.4%)4 . Defence stocks trade at a historical P/E5 ratio of ~14x, slightly above the long-term average, though still below peak multiples6
There are three key trends fuelling defence stock momentum:
Backlogs at record highs: European defence contractors are sitting on unprecedented order books, with consensus forecasting 2024-29 CAGRs7 of ~11% for sales and ~16% for both adjusted EBIT8 and adjusted EPS9. These growth rates compare to just 8%, 11% and 12%, respectively, for the 2019-24 period10.
Government commitments: with long-term contracts locked in and additional spending likely, demand visibility remains strong.
EU’s push for strategic autonomy: The European Commission has proposed a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), aimed at spending at least 50% of procurement budgets within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 203511.
Conclusion: a new era for European defence
The European defence sector is entering a new era of investment and strategic autonomy. With rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over US support, European nations are taking proactive steps to build a more robust and self-sufficient military ecosystem. While funding challenges persist, the momentum behind higher budgets, technological investments, and NATO commitments makes this shift not just necessary, but inevitable.
With the EU backing structural shifts in procurement, defence stocks remain well-positioned, particularly those with exposure to land (for example, ammunition, vehicles) and air (for example, air defence, missiles, drones) domains.
1NATO = The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states).
2GDP = gross domestic product.
3NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Declaration.
4Bloomberg, Europe defence stocks are represented by the MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence Index and European Equities represented by MSCI Europe Index.
5P/E = price-to-earnings.
6Bloomberg as of 31 January 2025.
7CAGR = compound annual growth rate.
8EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes.
9EPS = earnings per share.
10Company data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025.
11European Commission: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the Council as of August 2024.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Russia-Ukraine-Europe: Forex Impact
Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo. Today I want to share with you a reflection on the current geopolitical situation, in particular on the war in Ukraine and its global implications. The latest developments show us an increasingly complex panorama: America seems to have taken an ambiguous position, with signals that could be interpreted as a rapprochement with Putin. This has led to an intensification of the conflict between Russia and Europe, with consequences that could redefine the global balance.
The current situation and its implications
The war in Ukraine, which has been going on for years now, has had a devastating impact not only on the military front, but also on the economic and political front. Recently, the United States' decision to limit the flow of intelligence to Ukraine has favored the Russian advance in some strategic areas. This change in approach has raised doubts about the real American position and has fueled tensions between Western allies.
Europe, for its part, is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it faces economic pressures from sanctions against Russia; on the other, it must maintain a united front to support Ukraine. However, the lack of a clear strategy could lead to internal divisions and a weakening of its global position.
In this context, the European Union recently announced an ambitious €800 billion plan for rearmament, called "ReArm Europe". This plan aims to strengthen European defense through significant investments, including €650 billion from national resources and €150 billion from loans guaranteed by the community budget.2 The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed that we live in an era of rearmament and that Europe must be ready to defend itself autonomously.
The impact on the Forex world
This geopolitical situation has inevitably had repercussions on the Forex market. The war in Ukraine has already caused significant volatility in global currencies, with the euro coming under pressure due to economic uncertainties in Europe. At the same time, the US dollar has shown relative strength, but recent ambiguity in US foreign policy could weaken this position.
Emerging market currencies, especially those close to the conflict, remain highly vulnerable. The Russian ruble, for example, has seen significant swings, reflecting economic sanctions and the country's internal dynamics.
What to expect going forward
Looking ahead, the forex market is likely to remain highly volatile. Investors will need to closely monitor geopolitical developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The key will be to maintain a flexible approach and diversify portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with this global uncertainty.
In conclusion, the current situation presents an unprecedented challenge for traders and investors. However, with a well-planned strategy and careful analysis of the context, it is possible to navigate through these turbulent waters and identify investment opportunities.
General Market Ramblings - $BTCUSD, $TSLA, $GDX, $DAL, $BBEUHi, all. Wanted to get something published for the first time in awhile. Unfortunately my mom passed away recently and that has been something I have been going through. It is therapeutic to record something and get it out to you all. I am approaching feature film length on this one, so kudos if you make it through the whole video.
I just wanted to discuss some general market thoughts here - especially as we are now in an interesting time. I hope you do find some value here! Believe me, this really is just scratching the surface of my market thoughts and the different stocks that I have thoughts on. But again, really just wanted to get something out to you guys. Even if you tune in for a minute or two, thanks for watching! It means a lot. Feel free to provide feedback as well of course.
As always, a lot of my thoughts are based on the "Time @ Mode" method that we discuss in the Key Hidden Levels TradingView chat.
Also, as always, these are strictly my thoughts and opinions. I am not a professional and I encourage you to do your own research before making investment/trading decisions. These opinions are not financial advice.
Assets in this video: COINBASE:BTCUSD , COMEX:GC1! , NASDAQ:TSLA , AMEX:GDX , CBOE:BBEU , NYSE:DAL , maybe others I forgot about.
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR
(March/2025)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%.
This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission.
*The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households.
Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target.
Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
*The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
Most overbought in 10 years !? I've used 3 forms of technical analysis to make a case for a major top forming in the European markets. If this turns around, it could lead to a 10% selloff very quickly and if this transforms into a bear market then 20% drop is totally on the cards. Nothing goes up forever.
$TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINEXETR:TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINE
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! Thyssenkrupp’s stock soared 20% this week—defence spending’s the buzz 📈🔥. Investors eye TKMS and Iveco’s IDV as undervalued stars. Let’s unpack this rally! 🚀
(2/9) – MARKET SURGE
• Thyssenkrupp: 20% spike Monday, 53% YTD 💥
• Iveco: 68% YTD—IDV’s 10% margin shines 📊
• Driver: Europe’s military budget boom
Defence cash is flipping the script—big gains!
(3/9) – DEFENCE PLAYS
• TKMS Spin-Off: Warship unit set for ‘25 🌍
• Iveco IDV: Defence arm spins out in ‘25 🚗
• BofA: TKMS worth half Thyssenkrupp’s cap 🌟
Hidden gems catching the spotlight!
(4/9) – SECTOR SNAPSHOT
• Defence P/E: 25.8x vs. 18x 3 yrs ago 📈
• Thyssenkrupp & Iveco: ~8x—bargains?
• Vs. Giants: Rheinmetall, BAE soar, but these lag
Value hunt’s on—undervalued or overhyped? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH
• Peace Talks: Ukraine deal softens demand? ⚠️
• Execution: Spin-offs need to deliver 🏛️
• Focus: Beyond big defence names risky 📉
Rally’s hot—can it hold the heat?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Thyssenkrupp: €16B+ TKMS backlog 🌟
• Iveco: IDV’s 10% profit margin 🔍
• Cash Flow: Thyssenkrupp hits €0-300M ‘25 🚦
Defence muscle’s flexing hard!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Thyssenkrupp’s steel drag, Iveco’s focus 💸
• Opportunities: EU budget hikes, spin-off buzz 🌍
Can these sleeper hits wake up big?
(8/9) –Thyssenkrupp & Iveco defence bets—your call?
1️⃣ Bullish—Spin-offs spark a surge.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s there, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Rally fades fast.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Thyssenkrupp’s 20% leap, Iveco’s IDV glow—defence cash ignites hidden plays 🌍🪙. Cheap vs. giants, but risks lurk. Gems or mirage?
EUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATEEUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATE
(1/8)
Big News: European defence shares soared on Monday 📈🔥, with growing expectations of increased military spending. This rally follows renewed U.S. pressure (re-elected President Trump) calling for NATO allies to ramp up defence budgets to 5% of GDP—far above the usual 2%. Let’s break it all down! 🚀
(2/8) – STOCKS IN FOCUS
• Rheinmetall (Germany): +9% (Frankfurt) 💥
• BAE Systems (UK): +5% (London) 🇬🇧
• Thales (France): +4% (Paris) 🇫🇷
• Dassault Aviation: +4% 🛩️
• Kongsberg Gruppen (Norway): +3% 🔧
• Rolls-Royce: +2% 🚀
Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defence Index hit a 30-year high 🎉
(3/8) – WHY THE SURGE?
• EU leaders consider relaxing fiscal rules for bigger defence budgets 💶
• President Trump demands NATO allies go for 5% of GDP 🏛️
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggests a new target >3% GDP, warning about Russia’s rapid military buildup 🏴☠️
(4/8) – GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
• Russia’s war in Ukraine (nearing 4th year) pushes EU to reassess capabilities ⚔️
• IISS report: Russia’s defence spending surpasses Europe’s combined 💥
• U.S. threatens troop reductions unless Europe meets higher spending goals 🗽
(5/8) – POLICY SHIFT IN BRUSSELS
• EU might tweak Stability and Growth Pact—exempt certain defence costs from debt caps 🏛️
• “Dual-use” infrastructure (e.g., shelters) reclassified as defence, bypassing strict borrowing limits ⚙️
• Emergency meeting in Paris: Macron + von der Leyen open to flexing EU budget rules for a military surge 🇪🇺
(6/8) – INVESTOR OPTIMISM VS. CHALLENGES
• Many EU nations already beyond debt thresholds—3% or 5% GDP on defence = tough choices 📉
• S&P Global warns big defence boosts could threaten credit ratings 📢
• Germany’s €100B special fund ends 2028; France’s deficit hits 6.6% of GDP by 2025—both face fiscal strain 😬
(7/8) – OPPORTUNITIES FOR EUROPE’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY
• Bigger budgets = a wave of investment in European-made weapons 💸
• EU’s €1.5B Defence Industry Programme aims to strengthen the bloc’s military capacity 🇪🇺
• Analysts predict a robust outlook for companies like Rheinmetall, BAE, Thales, etc. 🤝
(8/8) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Investors are betting on a more militarized Europe 🌍, poised to spend big under NATO pressure and looming threats. Balancing fiscal rules with security needs is a tall order, but for defence stocks, it’s their moment to shine. Stay tuned: the NATO summit in June could solidify spending targets—and shape Europe’s defence future! 💪
$EUNITR - Europe Interest Rates $EUNITR
(January/2025)
source: European Central Bank
- The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%.
This move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, with price pressures easing in line with projections.
While domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating, and corporate profits are absorbing some inflationary effects.
Despite persistent tight financing conditions, the rate cut is expected to gradually ease borrowing costs for firms and households.
The ECB remains data-driven and has not committed to a predetermined rate path, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target.
Trump Threatens Europe with Tariffs: What About the Markets?
Hi, I’m Andrea Russo, a professional trader, and today I want to discuss this week's hot topic.
Donald Trump has recently revived his old economic slogan, promising heavy tariffs for companies that do not produce within the United States. In a public statement, the former president reiterated that foreign producers would face tariffs if they do not establish manufacturing plants in the USA. A direct attack on the European Union and its Green Deal policies, which he called a "scam". But what impact will this threat have on global markets? In this article, we’ll explore the potential consequences for stock markets, currencies, and vulnerable economic sectors, as well as the ripple effects on global monetary policies.
1. The Context of Trump's Threat
Trump’s threat of imposing significant tariffs on foreign companies is nothing new. During his presidency, he initiated a series of trade wars, particularly against China, threatening tariffs on imported goods to stimulate domestic production and reduce the trade deficit. Now, Trump is reprising this approach, focusing this time on the European Union and targeting environmental policies and the Green Deal, which he has long promoted as a "scam" and harmful to American businesses.
His proposal to cut taxes to 15% for companies investing in the USA, combined with the threat of tariffs on imported goods, could strengthen his electoral base but has the potential to stir tensions between the world’s largest economies.
2. Impact on Financial Markets
Trump's announcement has already triggered reactions in financial markets. While the risk of a global trade war may seem reduced compared to the peaks of 2018-2019, the threat of new tariffs has the potential to create turbulence, especially in sectors that are particularly exposed to changes in tariff policies.
Export and import sectors: Companies heavily reliant on imports/exports may be the most vulnerable to these threats. European and Asian producers exporting to the USA could face reduced profit margins if they are hit with new tariffs.
In particular, the automotive, technology, and electronics sectors could see demand contraction from American consumers who may have to pay higher prices for imported products.
German, Japanese, and Chinese automotive companies could be particularly affected, as they represent a major share of imports into the USA.
Currencies: An immediate reaction to these developments could reflect in the currency markets. The USD could strengthen, as protectionist policies are often seen as an incentive for domestic production, making it more attractive to invest in the United States. However, an escalation in the trade war could lead to higher volatility and weaken sentiment toward emerging market currencies, which are more vulnerable to U.S. protectionist measures.
3. Companies and Sectors Sensitive to Tariff Threats
Technology sector: Tech companies with strong presences in Asia, such as Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, may face pressure on their profit margins if they are subject to tariffs on exports to the USA. Trump’s policies could push companies to reconsider their global supply chains and set up local production in the USA to avoid additional tariffs.
Automotive sector: Another sector highly vulnerable to tariffs is the automotive industry. Foreign automakers may find themselves paying tariffs on imported vehicles, reducing the competitiveness of their products compared to U.S. manufacturers like Ford and General Motors. This scenario could lead investors to reassess their positions on automotive stocks and trade based on expectations of declining demand.
Energy sector & Green Deal: Trump’s strong criticism of the European Green Deal could boost the position of American energy companies, particularly those operating in natural gas and oil. The United States may further loosen environmental regulations to stimulate domestic production, benefiting American energy companies over European ones. However, a tariff threat on imported green technologies could hinder investments in renewable energy innovation.
4. Political and Geopolitical Reactions
A likely response to this tariff threat could be immediate retaliation from the European Union and other nations. Countermeasures could include imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, as occurred during Trump’s previous term. The escalation of such measures could trigger a new cycle of protectionism, amplifying global economic uncertainty.
The European Union, in particular, could adopt policies aimed at reducing its dependence on the United States, strengthening trade alliances with Asia and other emerging economies, which could significantly impact international trade and currency valuations.
5. Implications for Investors: Strategies and Risks
With growing uncertainty over global trade policies, investors should closely monitor the evolution of this situation. Some potential strategies include:
Currency hedging: Investors may choose to hedge their positions in currency markets using instruments like forex futures or currency options to mitigate the risk of unexpected dollar fluctuations.
Defensive sectors: Investing in more defensive sectors, such as consumer goods and utilities, which tend to be less sensitive to geopolitical developments, could be a safer strategy in times of uncertainty.
Low correlation stocks: Looking at alternative assets or investing in low-correlation stocks (e.g., small-cap stocks or emerging market stocks) could be an interesting strategy to diversify and reduce risk during periods of volatility.
Conclusion
Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on imported goods signals a return to more protectionist trade policies. While the market’s initial reaction may be volatile, the long-term effect will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and the countermeasures taken by U.S. trading partners. Investors should prepare for a new phase of uncertainty, closely monitoring central bank actions, fiscal policies, and corporate strategies to navigate this new economic reality effectively.
EUROSTOXX broke the DownTrend Line.The EURO STOXX 50, which serves as a benchmark for major eurozone companies, has been trading sideways in recent months, fluctuating between a strong support level at 4,730 and resistance at 5,099. After multiple tests of the support, the price has formed candles with long lower shadows, indicating a rejection of lower prices and buyer interest in maintaining levels above this critical point.
Recently, the index provided a significant technical signal by breaking the Downtrend Line that had been in place since previous peaks. This breakout is a strong indicator of potential short-term growth.
Main Scenario: Bullish
With the Downtrend line broken, the price now has the potential to target higher levels on the daily chart. The 5,000.00 area is the first key resistance to watch, followed by the previous peak at 5,099, which would confirm a stronger bullish trend.
Potential Bullish Movement:
Ideal Entry: A pullback to around 4,830.00 (near the broken downtrend line), followed by a bullish candle in that area, could signal a buying opportunity.
Primary Target: 5,015.00.
Secondary Target: 5,099.17.
Stop Loss: Below 4,740, with a more conservative option at 4,727.00 (indicating loss of support).
Important Indicators: Monitoring volume during the rally is crucial; low volume could indicate weakness in the breakout.
Alternative Bearish Scenario
Despite the bullish technical scenario, the market may reverse if the support region at 4,727.48 is broken. A consistent daily close below this level, accompanied by significant volume, would invalidate the bullish structure and could attract strong selling pressure.
In this case, a possible Sell Opportunity could appear if a daily candle closes below the 4,727.00 level. Possible targets would be:
4,500.00: Intermediate psychological and technical support. About 22700 points.
4,400.00: Next relevant support, observed in previous months. About 33700 points.
A Stop Loss could be put around 4,770.00, about 4300 points.
Warning Signs: Heightened global risk aversion, a declining macroeconomic situation in Europe, and ongoing weakness in industrial and consumer sectors could intensify selling pressure.
Macroeconomic Context
Europe faces a tough landscape. Germany, the region's primary economic driver, is grappling with an industrial slowdown and reduced consumption, impacting the competitiveness of its companies. These issues have lowered growth projections for the eurozone.
Additionally, escalating tensions with Russia present a significant geopolitical risk. As the European Central Bank seeks to balance inflation control with growth stimulation, uncertainty in both geopolitical and economic spheres continues to affect the markets.
The upcoming interest rate decision on December 12 may provide clearer guidance on the European Central Bank's future actions.
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$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
November/2024
source: EUROSTAT
Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected
-The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects,
as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
EUR/JPY Confirmation of trend reversalHi guys, today we are starting up with the currency pair of EUR / JPY , which had a significant drop today, with a follow up with a few bad economical data shown by the biggest economy in Europe : Germany, additionally the additional tensions generated from Israel earlier , ended up pushing the value of the yen up, hence the fact that it is still one of the looked after safe heaven currencies. Currently the EUR/JPY has reached a break of structure which it should revitalise and cover in the upcoming days.Additionally we see the lower levels of the Fibonacci and a total level of the RSI sitting currently at the level of 35 making it quite oversold.
Entry level at 160.500 with the following targets :
Target one : 161.053
Target two :161.767
Will update additionally when the targets have been achieved!
Will Religious Tensions Reshape Europe's Financial Future?Europe stands at a critical crossroads where religious tensions are silently transforming its financial landscape, with the CAC 40 emerging as a crucial barometer of this unprecedented shift. What many market analysts initially dismissed as temporary social friction has evolved into a fundamental force reshaping investment strategies and corporate valuations. The extraordinary security measures deployed for the France-Israel football match – requiring 4,000 police officers – signals a new reality that transcends simple event management, pointing to deeper structural changes in how European markets must operate in an increasingly divided society.
The continent's financial centers are witnessing a profound transformation as religious tensions ripple through market fundamentals. In France, where Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations intersect, companies are frantically adapting their business models to navigate these uncharted waters. Traditional valuation metrics are proving inadequate as firms face rising security costs, shifting urban demographics, and evolving consumer behaviors driven by religious and cultural dynamics. This new paradigm forces investors to consider whether Europe's markets have entered an era where social cohesion rivals financial metrics in importance.
The emerging religious divisions in Europe represent more than a social challenge – they're reshaping the very foundation of market analysis. As witnessed in recent events across Amsterdam, Paris, and other major cities, what begins as cultural tension quickly translates into market volatility, altered consumer patterns, and revised risk assessments. Forward-thinking investors are now recognizing that success in European markets requires a sophisticated understanding of religious and cultural dynamics, marking a revolutionary shift in investment strategy. The CAC 40's journey through these turbulent waters may well predict how global markets will adapt to a world where religious tensions increasingly influence economic outcomes.
SPX Ratio on Stock600Hello,
A little comparison between two markets, the SP500 and the Stock600.
I made a little ratio to see where the money is going!
The result is clear, the currency is going to the USA and not to old Europe.
Does Europe still have a future, with 27 countries!
Your opinion interests me.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2%
(October/2024)
+0.3%
source: EUROSTAT
-Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target.
In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%).
On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.