Europe
Spanish IBEX Head and ShouldersAlready outlined on how central banks will HAVE to keep stocks propped up. This is due to pensions and also the fact that central banks have forced money into stocks as yields were suppressed. A decade ago, you could retire with 1,000,000 and buy government bonds yielding 6-8% making 60,000-80,000 a year...enough to live off of in retirement. Now a days, you would make less than 30,000. In fact, bonds are now being used to trade rather than for yields!
Pensions funds are heavy in bonds and fixed income. They are not making the 8% required per year. In Canada, or pension funds have had to go into stocks and real estate. American social security is still 100% in fixed income...
Now, in some places, even real estate cannot be purchased for 1,000,000 meaning stocks are the only place to go for yield! There is nowhere else to go. Plus, stocks can be liquidated quickly which is important in this environment.
Expect central banks to prop stocks up because they have to in order to keep system propped up. Yes, a geopolitical situation can change this. Watch China for this. But you need to remember, central banks will keep stocks up. Cutting rates means you can only go to stocks for yield. Stimulus will also be reintroduced (very soon imo) but cannot be called QE. When stimulus comes back online there will be a CONFIDENCE CRISIS as people realize we are in 0 rates and fake/managed markets for life.
Check my other posts on these topics.
FTSE 2 hour ideaSimilar to my Dax idea just posted, a lot of world equities are bouncing...remember central banks can still cut rates and do QE/stimulus which means there will be nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. The party might not just be over yet.
Similar description to the FTSE as with the DAX, a prolonged downtrend and basing at a support zone. We had a wedge and broke above the resistance zone and even the previous lower high swing.
7375 zone is a flip zone you should watch and then 7575 above.
German Dax 2 hour set upBeen in a prolonged downtrend on the German Dax...world equities really, and it seems we began to bottom out here. We stopped making lower highs and lower lows.
We hit a support one and from there have gained some bids. Seems we got what appears to be a wedge/triangle break above a resistance zone on the 2 hour followed by higher highs and higher lows. A good risk vs reward trade.
Watching the 11920 zone as an interim target, and another zone at 12050 zone.
I still think central banks can cut rates and go back to QE/stimulus so markets can still remain propped...wall street can keep the party going a little longer.
EURNZD Hi Traders
This is my idea about Euro/New Zealand Dollar all things clear in chart . Wait for price to reach 1.7300 .
Enter Point : 1.7280 - 1.7320 ( Short )
Target : 1.70
Stop loss : Breaking 1.73 Zone Completely ( Not only Shadow or Fake break )
*Please consider Money Management and Risk Management and follow your rules . this is only my opinion.
if you have any question you can ask it in comment .
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Et tu DAX?Like the big US Indices DJ:DJI and SP:SPX we got a MASSIVE bearish divergence and a an ascending wedge on the 2 Months chart.
The German Economy really does not exude confidence since the creation of the Euro. As we know the EZB is already on an interest rate of 0% and there is no mild exit anymore from this state of economy in the Eurozone. Soon we will see the price they will have to pay, it does not look cheap..
Euro Stoxx BreakdownEuro Stoxx Index is also showing signs similar to my CAC40 idea (link below). Again, be wary with the Fed tomorrow. Cutting rates, and future rate cuts, means that there will be nowhere to go for yield other than the stock market. Central banks are attempting to keep stocks propped. This is their new mandate: to keep assets propped.
You can see a some what of a double top as Euro Stoxx tried to break out. Failed to and you can see the long wick and large engulfing red candle. We then created a lower high and have broken below a support/ flip zone. A strong break as well.
Looking to the flip zone at the 3415 zone...although be wary of 3437 too. Would expect one more lower high swing.
EURNZDI will wait for price to goes up and i will take a Sell Position .
Enter Point : 1.6825 - 1.68 ( Sell Position)
Take profit : 1.662 - 1.66
Stop loss : Breaking 1.68 zone completely on 1 Hour timeframe.
*Please consider Money Management and Risk Management and follow your rules this is only my opinion .
Telegram Channel : t.me
EURAUD SELL 1ST TARGET 1.61000WHERE PRICE IS TODAY @1.63500 WE HAVENT HAD A DAILY OR WEEKLY CANDLE CLOSURE ABOVE THIS LEVEL SINCE THE BEAR MARKET OF THE 2009 RECESSION CRASH.
ABOVE MY PURPLE KEY LEVEL IS UNKNOWN TERRITORY WHICH HAS BEEN REJECTED MULTIPLE TIMES
WITH AXY WEAKNESS WE MAY SEE CONSOLIDATION BEFORE SELL OFF
TREND LINE BREAK & RETEST HAS TAKEN PLACE
1.6100 IS ALWAYS RETESTED ON BACK TESTING THE LAST 12 MONTHS ONCE CURRENT PRICE IS FULFILLED
Short term reversal for GBP/USD
Good Morning,
Even though I dislike taking risks in trading currencies that are in economical war, but I noticed a pattern. I see that the pound has completed the head and shoulder pattern that was formed between Feb and May 2019, plus a reversal bar on the daily close, has given me the courage to take a long positions @ 1.2650 with a take profit @ 1.2795 and a stop loss @ 1.2590.
Good luck
ZIRP-unintended consequences--fisher international effectbased on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally. when bonds rally equities tend to fall. the bund last week hit an all time low of -20% yield on the german 10 year. aint that crazy people are dumb enough to buy an asset that has a 20% premium attached. thats right people are so afraid theyre willing to buy something and receive 20% less afterwards.. that being said people are choosing to go to US risk off USD and treasuries instead where they actually have a chance of making money. that transition is causing volatility. equity volatility is non-exsistant, but bond flows are overpowering flows.. INVESTORS MUST REMEMBER THE DISCOUNTING MECHANISM FOR FUTURE VALUE AND GROWTH IS.. THE RISK FREE RATE (US 10 YEAR YIELD) if the risk free rate is falling like a rock.. what is that saying about risk in US assets vs the world? thats exactly why im beyond bullish
EURAUD will melt to 1.6060!EURAUD has a hard time keeping up above the 1.6200 region and is showing a slowdown in liquididty and momentum to the upside , suggesting a downside target of 1.6060 to easily be met .
Ofcourse the 1.6000 institutional region is not far away from there and could be met very shortly after we have reached the 1.6060 region.
A risk reward ratio of 1:9 is set up for this trade wich is more then decent.
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BEL20: Lower long term buy opportunity on the Belgian market.The Belgian stock market is on an aggressive sell of since late April (1D RSI = 31.496, MACD = -58.680, Highs/Lows = -51.2357) after it failed to break the 3,870 - 3,910 1W Resistance Zone. The symmetry on a peculiar 1M Head and Shoulders pattern is uncanny so we will be using the 3,200 - 3,330 supply zone (red rectangle) as a continuous buy entry until the 1W Resistance Zone breaks. Our TP is initially 3,800. Keep an eye also for a potential Golden Cross as confirmation.
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WIG20: Strong long term bullish opportunity.The Polish index is approaching the 2,080 October 2018 Low and 1W Support Zone (2,013 - 2,085). With 1M on the lower levels of neutrality (RSI = 45.568, ADX = 19.801, MACD = 34.710) we are on excellent technical long term levels for a bullish reversal towards the 2,600 Resistance. If the E.U. fundamentals help in 2 years time it may even break this Resistance, which if crossed, is an automatic buy to 2,900.
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"Top and Bottom Analysis" EUR/CHF by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-On April 2019 price broke the ascending trend line
-After that, price started a corrective structure
-As we saw on the weekly analysis the price couldn't surpass the resistance zone and made a breakout of the corrective structure, starting a bearish movement
Based on this, as the price breaks out below 1.13400 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the descending movement towards 1.11900
Expect corrective structures to be formed on the way to the support zone
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
Weekly:
Daily:
EURUSD (EUR/USD) Buy 1.11500 >>> 1.11950 (Small target)EUR/USD
1) Two days we close above main volume
2) We have two impulses for first target correction
3) We have resistance zone 1.11923
4) We have Low volume trade zone for confirm first target correction
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Buy = 1.11500
Take Profit = 1.11950
Stop Loss = 1.11050
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