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XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong? Let's take the European banks... Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates... See, banks like interest rates. It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers. The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed... Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms. So let's get this idea set... The Fed are pausing with rate hikes... They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off... And unemployment is at a record low... Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off... Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up? Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis... Buckle up!
AMEX:XLFShort
by FinkPro
GBPUSD Technical & Fundamental SELLTechnical 1.There is a price channel (grey) which in my opinion it is about to be broken 2. The support trend line (green) within the price channel is been already broken and became resistance 3. Negative RSI divergence indicates change in trend direction 4. Target at 1.28, Pivot at 1.307 Fundamental 1. U.K faces the worst political crisis since 1940 2. Economical data worsen from date to date 3. Still all Brexit options open, no brexit deal more likely 4. One trillion £ has been moved out fro the U.K. Over all, pound remains the best performing pair for 2019, for some reason no one knows, pound is been supported for long time despite the bad news. This time seems to be over, as investors do not believe any more in a smooth Brexit. So, overall, SELL.
Short
by sifneosFX
UK Won't Sign the Divorce PapersBut just because the UK is fickle on leaving the EU for the WTO, its still not sure if ready to make the jump. EURUSD in the upcoming week will almost entirely be moved by Brexit, however concerns over a slowdown in European growth may be justified with more weak EU data, particularly in central bank speak on Tuesday, German CPI on Thursday, and unemployment figures on Friday. While these figures are expected to come in mostly unchanged, it could be Draghi's speech on Tuesday that could give investors the most jitters. Meanwhile, the UK is injecting much more fear into the heart of EU investors with the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This not only hurts the UK, but also the EU which imports many goods to the UK. Research conducted by the Eurasia Group suggests that every major EU country stands to lose GDP per capita except for Austria if the UK leaves without a deal. For more analysis, please check out more content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
BRUTAL: US vs EU stock market comparison.This is no news to anyone who follows the stock market but this is just to put it in perspective how bad the EU is doing. The euro is lagging, getting close to parity with the dollar and the stock market in Europe has gone nowhere for decades. If you took all your money out of the Eurostoxx in '07 and put it in the S&P you would have had 3,5 times as much if you had held on. You would have doubled your money even if you made the decision at the worst point prior to this decade. The EU is a sinking ship and rapidly declining to 2nd world economic minipower. Megalomaniacs try to desperately band Europe together with stitches claiming to make the EU relevant on the global stage. Well they are failing, meanwhile Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Norway, South Korea and many others are proving that you do not need to be big to grow fast. The election is in May, throw the bums out. Absolute failure.
SP:SPXEducation
by fatjohn
1
Euro In Trouble For Continued Downside Against The Dollar We saw a strong bounce off of the 61.8% fibonacci zone, but we're coming up on a strong resistance that was previously a strong support. I like to play these Support/resistance flips the first time they test it as the supply usually keeps the price from moving through the level and they are nice shorts with a strong RR for less risk. I have a relatively tight stop as I could also see a potential push through the resistance to the top diagonal resistance level that we've seen hold back the price several times now. I don't foresee that happening though, but it's important to weigh all the angles when looking at a trade. If I get stopped out, I may take another go at it from that level also as it has confluence with both diagonal and horizontal resistances. On the daily, the 20MA is lining up with our short zone nicely for a possible retest. On the 240 (4 hour), we are also seeing a possible retest of the 30MA, that has been very pivotal for the FX:EURUSD chart as you can see it used it as support on it's most recent rally. Looking at the macro picture, we can see we've got a gap way down below around the 78.6% level as well as a bearish picture that is being painted for a full retrace back to the bottom for a potential double bottom. Listening to Chairman Powell's comments on the US Economy from 60 minutes aligns with my trade thesis as he stated that the US economy looks healthy on every metric and we should see continued growth into 2019 without any rake heights from the Fed. As always, manage your risk and try and maintain at least a 2:1 or 3:1 RR on all of your trades to maintain profitability in the long run. This is a small swing trade position on the smaller time frame, but if we do break that 61.8% level and the blue line from previous support doesn't hold, next supports are a ways down based on the VPVR as well as the fibonacci level. Cheers and happy trading!
Short
by jacobcanfield
3
EUR/USD breakout As mentioned in my previous post the pair broke below the rising wedge and failed to recover. The ECB meeting today also disappointed with its dovish message and downgraded growth forecasts. Also, the committee is launching TLTRO program soon which also increased the pressure on the pair. My initial target for the rising wedge breakout is 1.1180 which is also 61.8% fibo level of the 2016-2017 up move. The Ecb today made this move happen faster than anticipated. I don't recommend selling at this level since EUR/USD is highly oversold and might retrace a little bit to mid 1.12's. Target to the downside is 1: 1.118 and 2:1.11 psychological level. Good luck
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend. Short and mid term From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
F
by BFCMInvest
EUR/USD and Mario Draghi ?! Ready to fall !The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European economic situation is getting worse. Neither deposit rates and interest rates will be increased. The main trend is now bearish in daily and weekly time frame, the price continues to move under the EMA 20 periods, and under the bearish ichimoku cloud, for the static level for a trend inversion (at 1.15) seems to be too strong to be passed in the short term, the price is rejected since the end of September. The target, at this point, if Draghi confirmed the hypotheses declared in the conference on January 24th, would be in the support zone between 1.10 and 1.08.
Short
by BFCMInvest
FTSE likely to recover to 7200 levelsFTSE is at an interesting level. It has completed five waves to the upside after a major correction. These five waves could form an A wave of an ABC correction or the first wave of a new Elliott wave to the upside. Regardless, it is likely to complete another set of five waves to the upside either as Wave c or as Wave iii after completing the correction underway in Wave B or Wave ii. To complete wave b or ii currently underway, FTSE is expected to first recover and then drop to around 6700 level from where wave iii or c could start. PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
TVC:UKXLong
by ndau
The Brexit will put the UK100 on a huge downmovmentGood evening, Looking at the current SHS in the UK100 and it currently breaking trough the Neckline, it is fair to say that a Downtrend will occur. However if you look at it from a political and Economical standpoint its even clearer whats going to happen. Once the "Hard" Brexit will take place the Economics in Great Brittain will decrease immensely as well as the ones in Europe. So looking at the big Downtrend that is currently not been broken a short position can definetly can be recommend. What do you think about the Brexit and what it will hold in its place? I`m quit sure that the next strong downmovment in the DAX ,the USTECH100 as well as in the UK100 is about to happen right now our at the end of this week. Feel free to comment and say your opinion. -Aaron Akkuzu
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by AaronAkkuzu
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden. If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
FX:GER30
by UnknownUnicorn569872