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ZIRP-unintended consequences--fisher international effectbased on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally. when bonds rally equities tend to fall. the bund last week hit an all time low of -20% yield on the german 10 year. aint that crazy people are dumb enough to buy an asset that has a 20% premium attached. thats right people are so afraid theyre willing to buy something and receive 20% less afterwards.. that being said people are choosing to go to US risk off USD and treasuries instead where they actually have a chance of making money. that transition is causing volatility. equity volatility is non-exsistant, but bond flows are overpowering flows.. INVESTORS MUST REMEMBER THE DISCOUNTING MECHANISM FOR FUTURE VALUE AND GROWTH IS.. THE RISK FREE RATE (US 10 YEAR YIELD) if the risk free rate is falling like a rock.. what is that saying about risk in US assets vs the world? thats exactly why im beyond bullish
TShort
by The_dumpster_diver
BEL20: Lower long term buy opportunity on the Belgian market.The Belgian stock market is on an aggressive sell of since late April (1D RSI = 31.496, MACD = -58.680, Highs/Lows = -51.2357) after it failed to break the 3,870 - 3,910 1W Resistance Zone. The symmetry on a peculiar 1M Head and Shoulders pattern is uncanny so we will be using the 3,200 - 3,330 supply zone (red rectangle) as a continuous buy entry until the 1W Resistance Zone breaks. Our TP is initially 3,800. Keep an eye also for a potential Golden Cross as confirmation. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
INDEX:BEL20Long
by InvestingScope
WIG20: Strong long term bullish opportunity.The Polish index is approaching the 2,080 October 2018 Low and 1W Support Zone (2,013 - 2,085). With 1M on the lower levels of neutrality (RSI = 45.568, ADX = 19.801, MACD = 34.710) we are on excellent technical long term levels for a bullish reversal towards the 2,600 Resistance. If the E.U. fundamentals help in 2 years time it may even break this Resistance, which if crossed, is an automatic buy to 2,900. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
GPW:WIG20Long
by InvestingScope
1
"Top and Bottom Analysis" EUR/CHF by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION: Main Items we Observe on the Chart: -On April 2019 price broke the ascending trend line -After that, price started a corrective structure -As we saw on the weekly analysis the price couldn't surpass the resistance zone and made a breakout of the corrective structure, starting a bearish movement Based on this, as the price breaks out below 1.13400 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the descending movement towards 1.11900 Expect corrective structures to be formed on the way to the support zone MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION: Weekly: Daily:
Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong? Let's take the European banks... Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates... See, banks like interest rates. It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers. The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed... Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms. So let's get this idea set... The Fed are pausing with rate hikes... They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off... And unemployment is at a record low... Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off... Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up? Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis... Buckle up!
AMEX:XLFShort
by FinkPro
GBPUSD Technical & Fundamental SELLTechnical 1.There is a price channel (grey) which in my opinion it is about to be broken 2. The support trend line (green) within the price channel is been already broken and became resistance 3. Negative RSI divergence indicates change in trend direction 4. Target at 1.28, Pivot at 1.307 Fundamental 1. U.K faces the worst political crisis since 1940 2. Economical data worsen from date to date 3. Still all Brexit options open, no brexit deal more likely 4. One trillion £ has been moved out fro the U.K. Over all, pound remains the best performing pair for 2019, for some reason no one knows, pound is been supported for long time despite the bad news. This time seems to be over, as investors do not believe any more in a smooth Brexit. So, overall, SELL.
Short
by sifneosFX
UK Won't Sign the Divorce PapersBut just because the UK is fickle on leaving the EU for the WTO, its still not sure if ready to make the jump. EURUSD in the upcoming week will almost entirely be moved by Brexit, however concerns over a slowdown in European growth may be justified with more weak EU data, particularly in central bank speak on Tuesday, German CPI on Thursday, and unemployment figures on Friday. While these figures are expected to come in mostly unchanged, it could be Draghi's speech on Tuesday that could give investors the most jitters. Meanwhile, the UK is injecting much more fear into the heart of EU investors with the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This not only hurts the UK, but also the EU which imports many goods to the UK. Research conducted by the Eurasia Group suggests that every major EU country stands to lose GDP per capita except for Austria if the UK leaves without a deal. For more analysis, please check out more content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
BRUTAL: US vs EU stock market comparison.This is no news to anyone who follows the stock market but this is just to put it in perspective how bad the EU is doing. The euro is lagging, getting close to parity with the dollar and the stock market in Europe has gone nowhere for decades. If you took all your money out of the Eurostoxx in '07 and put it in the S&P you would have had 3,5 times as much if you had held on. You would have doubled your money even if you made the decision at the worst point prior to this decade. The EU is a sinking ship and rapidly declining to 2nd world economic minipower. Megalomaniacs try to desperately band Europe together with stitches claiming to make the EU relevant on the global stage. Well they are failing, meanwhile Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Norway, South Korea and many others are proving that you do not need to be big to grow fast. The election is in May, throw the bums out. Absolute failure.
SP:SPXEducation
by fatjohn
1
Euro In Trouble For Continued Downside Against The Dollar We saw a strong bounce off of the 61.8% fibonacci zone, but we're coming up on a strong resistance that was previously a strong support. I like to play these Support/resistance flips the first time they test it as the supply usually keeps the price from moving through the level and they are nice shorts with a strong RR for less risk. I have a relatively tight stop as I could also see a potential push through the resistance to the top diagonal resistance level that we've seen hold back the price several times now. I don't foresee that happening though, but it's important to weigh all the angles when looking at a trade. If I get stopped out, I may take another go at it from that level also as it has confluence with both diagonal and horizontal resistances. On the daily, the 20MA is lining up with our short zone nicely for a possible retest. On the 240 (4 hour), we are also seeing a possible retest of the 30MA, that has been very pivotal for the FX:EURUSD chart as you can see it used it as support on it's most recent rally. Looking at the macro picture, we can see we've got a gap way down below around the 78.6% level as well as a bearish picture that is being painted for a full retrace back to the bottom for a potential double bottom. Listening to Chairman Powell's comments on the US Economy from 60 minutes aligns with my trade thesis as he stated that the US economy looks healthy on every metric and we should see continued growth into 2019 without any rake heights from the Fed. As always, manage your risk and try and maintain at least a 2:1 or 3:1 RR on all of your trades to maintain profitability in the long run. This is a small swing trade position on the smaller time frame, but if we do break that 61.8% level and the blue line from previous support doesn't hold, next supports are a ways down based on the VPVR as well as the fibonacci level. Cheers and happy trading!
Short
by jacobcanfield
3
EUR/USD breakout As mentioned in my previous post the pair broke below the rising wedge and failed to recover. The ECB meeting today also disappointed with its dovish message and downgraded growth forecasts. Also, the committee is launching TLTRO program soon which also increased the pressure on the pair. My initial target for the rising wedge breakout is 1.1180 which is also 61.8% fibo level of the 2016-2017 up move. The Ecb today made this move happen faster than anticipated. I don't recommend selling at this level since EUR/USD is highly oversold and might retrace a little bit to mid 1.12's. Target to the downside is 1: 1.118 and 2:1.11 psychological level. Good luck
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT