Europe
$EURUSD Wolfe Wave, Eyeing Point 5Hello Traders,
Looking at the EURUSD pair we have a Wolfe Wave that just completed at point 4. Looking at the 1-4 line trajectory we can see that it has acted as an anchor throuhgout the formation of this Wolfe Wave. I'm looking at 5 and potentially 5' to complete.
If we see completion at point 5 look for the 1-4 line as your exit target. If we make a lower AND hit the 5' line off of point 3 look for an exit at Geo's Off-Set rule at point 4.
-Chartistry
EURUSD bullish divergence on 30min chart LONGEURUSD bullish divergence on 30min chart LONG
break of downtrend line at around 1.12 will open further upside momentum, could target 1.1320 highs
EURUSD Brussels Attack Caution - H4 bullish divergence RSIEURUSD Brussels Attack Caution
Just a short technical assessment:
I see maximum downside risk for the EURUSD-0.31% at around 1.1150, which is 0.38 fib support, upper ichimoku cloud and bottom of march uptrend channel despite a strong H4 bullish divergence in the RSI
On the upper end we could see a move to go through 1.13 levels and finally knock out 1.14.
Be cautious! This is a grandchess day. Whenever this happens, the major players on this planet make their moves!
Don't trust the media!
Cheers,
SinatraFX
SWIIIIIINGThat was quick. the EURO just blew through our trigger without stopping. The swings are crazy. We are nixing our trigger trigger zone and will wait until close of today to determine next opportunity.
She needs a restWe didn't get the pullback within our time frame so we passed on the trade. Yes, it would have worked out but the closer we get to a RED news event the more you are gambling. We prefer the higher probability trades. We think the EURO needs a rest down here before making her next move. We will wait till for a better setup.
EURO in trouble...againThe EURO has entered back into the breakout range. This is not good news for the EURO bulls. We are seeking short triggers on any bounces back into the old break area. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Patience is key!The more the EURO hangs around our trigger zone without a trigger firing we become skeptical about the trade. For now we will ignore the old trigger zone and wait for price to develop a better trade. PATIENCE IS KEY!
Path of least resistance...longstill waiting for a pullback trigger to get long the Euro. We are expecting the Euro to pullback into the FOMC announcement this week. If we don't get the trigger by Tuesday then we will wait until AFTER the FOMC announcement.
Long in the tooth?After covering our position last week we are looking to get long on pullbacks. If price doesn't pullback to our zone we will look for a consolidation pattern. We will be using smaller position size on this next leg...we could be getting long in the tooth up here. Wait for your trigger
Breakout can strengthen EUR @1.56460If this pair can beat the level of a relatively strong support then I am expecting it to rise further towards the Summer highs.
Especially after the recent news events that been driving the currency for the last week.
Entry : 1.56460 (Breakout)
Target: 1.60500 (Sort Term Support)
Stop: 1.55450 (Summer Highs)
Rocket Ship EuroTHIS IS A CLEAR BREAK! We started this trade with our smallest size and have taken some off around the 200Day MA. We are looking to add another position on a pull back with a trigger.
She's flirting with us!The EURO flirted with our break area and retreated to the mean Monday. Now all eyes are on FOMC. We will AVOID the EURO until after the meeting and announcement Wed (in the USA). It's not worth the coin flip in this area. There will be better set-ups afterwards. STAY PATIENT!
Oh MarioMario has spoken and the craziness ensued. We closed Friday's session on our break area and flirting with another break. We will be getting short if we get a trigger after the break. Remember...No Trigger, No Trade!
Long on EUR/GBP BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for
- We are clearly up trending
- We are putting in higher highs and lower highs
- We are getting nice swing highs and structure
- Previous 4 hour candle was a bullish hammer (Bullish candle)
- We have nice long wicks to the downside which signals more buying power
- We are above key level of 0.75000
Daily
- We put in a huge Bullish engulfing last week Friday
- Today we are forming a bullish hammer of the Daily candle
- We are riding the trend which is bullish
- Remember the trend is you're friend
weekly
- We have had 8 bullish weeks in a row the momentum is to the upside which is clear to see
- on the weekly we cleared major level off 0.75000
A better chance?The Euro blew through our watch area without triggering but rebounded late during the Friday session. We wanted to be long by now but we are not. There is a lot monetary news events out of Europe this week so we will be cautious of our positions. For now, we want to look for a trigger long (which may happen over night so get the coffee brewing) down to our watch area. If we are fortunate enough to get long and have a break out Monday then we can manage the trade into the news events. If not then we will flatten all positions before the events. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Fakey Breaky HeartToday's move was the reason we didn't trust the short side after after the euro moved back into the range. LESSON - When fake breakouts/breakdowns occur we usually see a day that has a monster move. The crowd that participated in the break are now stuck. They are forced to jump out of their trade which accelerates the move. Today was that move. We will watch the 1.08804 are. If it holds on a test we will look for a trigger and position for a break to the upside. REMEMBER: US has the jobs number Friday Morning and NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE
Hedge Fund HurtThe EURUSD is another on our watch list. We will not jump the gun on this. We will wait for the break areas and look for a lower time frame trigger to get involved. The flag patterm suggests this currency is wanting to put more hurt on the Hedge Funds who positioned themselves short for the puke. Now the massive squeeze could be on. Keep on your watch list.
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUD - BOREDOME BEFORE THE STORM?KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD - BOREDOM BEFORE THE STORM ?
(1 day, log scale)
As said previously, the short-lived upward thrust for EUR into $1.17 has not been able to materialize.
EURUSD is on the daily chart stil gyrating. Granted, 1.04/1.05 has again provided support, and so did the 1.105 provode resistance / did the 1.08 level provide support again. RSI divergences taking place on both sides... It's simply in a sideways market. Still.
In all: I'd expect this thing to visit 1.08 again, 1.10 again, and anticipate a short visit to the upside (1.11 level, perhaps even overshoot to 1.12?) but this is only to complete the retracement from the previous fierce leg down, which started Oct. 15th at the 1.15 high, and ended on "D-Day" ;-) at 1.05. Note the Fib resistancelevel lining up with previous resistance.
On the far bigger MONTHLY picture (see other chart) things look south (much) further. But let's first end this shorter leg up.
Whats to come for EURUSD?Well.. doesnt need much explenation
still we are all trying to work out the implications of FED/ECB relationship and their monetary policy but one thing seems like the USD is not giving up!
making terrain across the majors today after the announcement could still TOO EARLY to call it and I am SOO! looking forward to hear from the CTF report next to see how orders and contracts performed over the FED announcement week but seems like USD long order owners dont really want to give up upon their positions yet.
we havent really seen any new positionament in the USDx so I guess this is because they still digesting and wondering what to do.
the LONG term picture still bearish bias as I am not expecting a break over 1,12 anytime soon after we retested the 1,1011-60 area over the past few days and it was empty of bids around there...
still we could see a reversal... either because ECB becomes more hawkish (sudently) or because USD long positions get trimmed off and some earnings are taken before Xmas.
too soon to call it but it will deffinetly be interesting!
STUMBLING THE EUR/USD LEGS - long term, by the monthLet's look at the really big picture again on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale).
Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware.
Usage:
- protecting your savings (by going into USD)
- determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?)
- as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about.
Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for,, the current frenzy in EURUSD is NOT changing that at all.
When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside should be taken around 1.12 / 1.19 (if it ever gets that far). I am convinced the latter level won't be breached after this Fed day, setting us up for the next long term leg down towards parity. By then.... a positive RSI divergence might be giving a screaming buy - but we're far from that.
FYI: I've been pulling my EUR assets into USD assets. Long term, I mean - not relating to trading. This is not going to end well in the long run...
