German Dax - Steep parabola unsustainable, Pullback imminent!!!The Dax steep incline is looking to be losing some steam and the Elliott Wave structure suggests that we may have a pullback consolidation before printing a new high. ECB press conference today could trigger some profit taking in Germany's premier Index. A new whipsaw high may be probable as well, but likely to be sold into. Favoring the pullback short term.
Europe
On the verge of a breakoutPretty reasonable risk reward here, could be better if it test the lower ascending triangle once more.
Coincidentally, Greece debt deal will be up within the next 10 days and this might be the catalyst for the better or worst.
T/P: 40.89
Entry: 34.60
S/L: 31.37 (Trailing stops by 0.04 daily)
Fibo MAGIC in the EURUSD!! UNCANNY!!!EURUSD Monthly Chart - Apologies if the chart looks a bit busy but here are the main points.
Fib Time Projection:
The 2000 (Point X) - late 2004 (Point Y) uptrend lasted for 50 months. A correction ensued and the low was formed in late 2005 (Point Z). If we take the 50 month uptrend and Fib project it from Point Z then we can see that it has has the uncanny ability to time the tops and bottoms +/-3 months. Looking ahead in the future we can see that the 2.382 Fib Projection (2.382 x 50 months projected from Point Z) then we get an initial time objective for a major low in the Euro on October 2015, followed by the 2.618 Fib Projection that comes in at October 2016.
Fib Price Projections:
Measured triangle projection using the month to month closes comes in sub parity. This coincides with the downside Fib projections for the end of Wave C.
Conclusion:
Parity is a dead certain for the EURUSD with 0.9900 an also likely target. Once price gets there we could have a prolonged period of accumulation (basing pattern) by the smart money that should coincide with the Fib Time projections mentioned above.
CAC40 - At a Critical Long Term Inflection Point!!Looking at the Monthly chart of the CAC40 you can clearly see its heading into a Wall of Resistance. Fibonacci cluster, LT T-Line Resistance, Wedge Resistance and Price resistance. This is the real test for the CAC40 bulls. Clearly the bulls have the QE wind in their sails but it is PARAMOUNT that they confidently clear the Brick Wall. Tentative Elliott Wave Count on the chart suggests that this is an ideal end of wave target for a Wave C of B (Cycle degree). Definitely one to watch as the DAX (another major beneficiary of QE) is looking to be completing a Wave 5 of C count as well.
$EURUSD Breaks Through Ascending Triangle Bottom$EURUSD Has broken below the ascending triangle bottom and looks set to break through the Double/Triple Top confirmation level 1.0720 (4h close). Another possibility is a rally off this level and a retest of 1.050 but we think this Triple/Quad Top/Double Bottom scenario is less probable. Look to sell any rallies into the broken triangle bottom or LT channel top.
CAC 40 continuation pattern awaiting validation!!CAC 40 has seen some profit taking over the past couple of weeks and has formed an inverse H & S continuation pattern that is awaiting validation. A successful break and consecutive 2hr closes above 5104 could see the CAC head towards its measured target of 5277. Failure to validate the pattern and break below 5k is a bearish development that should see continued losses towards 4932 and potentially 4856. Holding a long view currently as long as 5k holds.
DAX at important resistances, expecting a correctionThe German stock index DAX is at important Fibonacci resistances and momentum overbought area. We are expecting a down wave corrective movement towards the 10160 area, max 8920.
Only a new weekly close above 12 220 would invalidate this bearish view.
EURGBP climbdownEURGBP is on very serious key support now. If 0.72200 level broke, this pair clearly will climbdown stronger to 0.71650 before bouncing back on retracement to 0.72270.
This retracement level is the most suitable level for go short again and swing down to the next target at 0.71000.
1. Break level 0.72200, it will drop down to 0.71650
2. At 0.71650, wait for price action, if retracement happen, you can counter the trend and buy up to 0.72270 and go short again at that level.
3. Swing down to 0.71000
EURUSD, USDCAD , DXY index Dynamic intraday hedging Dynamic intra day hedging:
Fundamentals and and a lack of
interest in the euro has has it fall
substantially, USDCAD is -95%
corralated to the EURUSD
and we have seen a strong canadian
dollar over the past few d
ays. effectively by creating
two positions one short on
the eurusd and one long in usd
cad with the same lot sizes
we can effectively minimize risk.
we can minimize risk even more
by then adding the two lot sizes
from eurusd and usdcad to
create another positions in the dxy
which then minimizes risk even more
Another classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news.Sometimes knowing the general direction of fundamentals will be more than enough in trading, the charts says everything of what the market intended.
News are just meant for distribution of expensive stocks to the average joe.
Had a pretty good trade from this :)
EURO Decline -- Is it over? NO! No Evidence of Bottom YetThis chart shows EUR/USD, the Euro Currency, on a Weekly timeframe. (NOTE: Updated chart below, accidentally clicked off the Dynamic Levels that were supposed to be in the above chart)
Plotted on the chart is SCMR Trends™, which sequences price to find the correct behavior and identify good setups. It is available (along with other indicators in the package) in the TradingView Marketplace App store.
The point of this post is to state that on the larger timeframe, the Euro has provided zero evidence that it is done trending down. No -- it is not yet reversing.
This is a relevant observation because the conventional wisdom is that the price is oversold -- and yes, it certainly is -- but that currently there is no actual evidence of reversal, so to bet on a longer term reversal here and now is not the right move. We would need more data from the market that suggests a reversal is actually underway (such a Blue unconfirmed reversal or an "O" plotting under price, a confirmed reversal). This may come to pass sooner than I expect, but the important thing is that it's not happening now.
Looking in the past, the Euro was in an uptrend and provided several good signals from confirmed reversals up ("O" under price) and the Pivot bars ("P" above price). Today though, all we see is red (a downtrend).
My take is that the market can trend lower for several more weeks before a true low (which is still theoretical at this point).
-------------
Let's look briefly at the economic and fundamental reasons for this move.
1.) EU recession. Recent data from the ECB shows that Eurozone has negative growth. The ECB is not allowed to print -- only issue bonds -- so there is a *huge* cost incentive to weaken the Euro to boost demand for these bonds, especially if they are settled in dollars.
2.) The other side of the coin is that a weaker currency can help boost foreign investment, which adds demand to a stagnating economy.
Both of these reasons, structurally and politically are why I believe the strong Dollar and weak Euro can persist longer than many expect.
RISKS:
1.) Perhaps the ECB will change its tune. I doubt this
4.) Not a recommendation to buy or sell, just an example the ways in which you can combine structural fundamental analysis with price action, which while oversold, is not yet actually indicating a reversal (even if only temporarily).
Ftse mib short termThe divergence between oscillator and price movement ended the up-trend started June, 2013. The price recently tested the long term support in 19.800 area, without confirming the break. The index is expected to approach the 19.600 area on the long term support, and then starting again towards higher levels.
The advice is to wait until the price reaches 19.600 zone, then buy if the support holds, or sell in the occurrence of the break of support.
UPDATE: LNG TRANSPORT IS STILL TRENDING HIGHER BREAKING OUT ADVERSE TO MARKET AND WORLD EVENTS
This stock is above any resistance points and if continues above indicators on high side it will continually break highs on a daily basis. They are a Monaco based company that is very strong fundamentally and even spun off a LP for dividends under symbol GLOP.
This is a fundamentally and technically solid stock and as America will stand to possibly be main if not only Natural Gas producer in world, then the European tankers will cut costs of transports and supply the EU with NAT GAS even if Russia cuts Ukraine and Europe off. Combining this withe the prices paid by EU countries for LNG and the threat of oil and gas being taken DOMESTIC LNG becomes a foremost priority to ship as of almost yesterday!
ANOTHER GREAT FIND BY "JACKIE MOON" STILL ON FIRE
UPDATE:LNG TRANSPORT STILL CONTINUING TO BOOM MUST BUY
GLOG IS THE COMPANY THAT SPUN OFF ITS PARENT COMPANY GLOP, WHICH USUALLY IS THE OTHER WAY AROUND HOWEVER ALTHOUGH ADVOIDING THE THREE MONTH RULE CERTAIN EXCEPTIONS APPLY....
IF A COMPANY HAS SUFFICIENT EARNINGS AND HAS ADDITIONAL REVENUE THEY WILL IMMEDIATELY PROSPER.
AS SHOWN IN THE FIB LINES ON AN INCREDIBLE UPTREND EACH MOVE BREAKS THROUGH ANOTHER FIB INDICATOR SHOWING TRUE STRENGTH. UNTIL A PULLBACK OCCURS THIS IS A LONG AND ACCOMPANIES GLOG WITH THE GROWTH ,DIVIDEND, AND CAPITAL APPRECIATION ALL THREE IN ONE MAKE THIS A GREAT HEDGE TO ISSUES INTHE POLITICAL WORLD ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOMC MEETING TOMORROW.
THIS STOCK , LP , WILL PAY APX A 7% DIVIDEND SO UNCERTAINTY IN MARKETS AND A SHORTAGE OF LNG ALONG WITH CAPITAL APPRECIATION AND GROWTH POTENTIAL MAKE THIS A MUST OWN BEFORE THE CRISIS IS SOLVED.
ANOTHER PICK FROM THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE MYSTERY "JACKIE MOON" TY JM