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YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW BAD EUROPES'S CRISIS IS.Let's start with the basic scenario of the crisis development, which now seems the most probable. The baseline scenario assumes that the EU accepts the oil embargo on supplies from Russia and reduces the consumption of Russian pipeline gas to the maximum. Supplies of coal from Russia fell under EU ban back in August. That is a stable shortage of energy resources in the EU and as a consequence, high energy and electricity prices. As for the ECB monetary policy and its ability to cope with high inflation. Most likely, the ECB will continue to be cautious with tightening monetary policy, raising the rate very slowly. The latest rate hike of 75 bps at once looks like a bold decision if two important factors are not taken into account. Namely, the much higher interest rate in the US (with the possibility of further aggressive hikes) and double-digit consumer inflation in a number of eurozone countries. The ECB remains hostage to the debt market in southern Europe. At the same time the situation with industrial inflation looks simply catastrophic. In the leading eurozone economy, Germany, industrial inflation has reached 37.2%. Germany Producer Prices Change Thus, the baseline scenario assumes a combination of two key factors, the impact of which will have a lasting devastating effect on the EU economy: high inflation and acute energy shortages. The continuation of the current energy policy will inevitably provoke a process of transferring all energy-intensive production from the EU and will hit hard the industries where oil and gas are used as raw materials. Some companies in this sphere will simply go bankrupt, while others will have to reduce production because their costs are too high. The debt burden on companies in the energy sector is also unavoidable. And high electricity prices will affect almost all spheres of the economy, where there is at least some significant share of energy costs in production. In other words, practically all EU industry will lose competitiveness to a greater or lesser degree. The chemical industry and metallurgy will suffer the greatest blow - we should not rule out a collapse of production there. All related industries, among which agricultural producers are worth mentioning, will also suffer significant damage. Gas is the most important raw material component in the production of mineral fertilizers, and most of the greenhouses in Europe are heated by gas. EUR/USD remains pressured towards 0.9950 on USD strength There is every reason to believe that stagflation awaits the Eurozone in the near future. Under such a scenario, the euro exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is likely to fall by 15-20% below parity in the next six months. It makes no sense to talk about any economic growth in the EU over the next year. The question is how much eurozone GDP will fall next year. Especially when adjusted for inflation. However, there are a number of risks for the Eurozone economy, the consequences of which are not considered by the markets at the moment. Yes, these risks are not included in the baseline scenario, but in the current environment the probability of some events is far from zero. Let us now consider these risks. The risk of uncontrolled inflation. At some point, the population may lose confidence in the authorities' ability to curb prices. Then we may have a "Turkish" scenario in the EU with inflation rising to absolutely inconceivable values of tens of percent. The only difference is that Turkey does not want to raise the rate, while Europe does not. To some extent this risk can already be seen, as evidenced by the capital outflow from the Eurozone. The rate of euro against the dollar is dropping for this reason as well. This process may accelerate at any time, as soon as investors realize that inflation is becoming uncontrollable. The likelihood of an acute phase of energy shortages this winter. Despite the fact that European UGS is currently at 84% capacity, this does not guarantee a successful heating season. Especially if the winter is cold. It is worth bearing in mind that the main flow of pipeline gas to the EU now goes through Ukraine. This means that there is no certainty that gas supplies via this route are stable. In such a (deficit) scenario, there is a high risk that a significant part of industry in the EU will be forced to shut down. This is a guaranteed decline in production and an increase in unemployment. Political risks should not be discounted either. High inflation, rising utility rates and other difficulties that the EU population will soon face could provoke social unrest. This in turn could lead to a change of government in some European countries and exacerbate the political crisis within the EU. A second wave of refugees from Ukraine could also contribute to this if the theater of hostilities spreads to the currently relatively calm regions of the country. It will be especially difficult if the explosive growth of the flow of Ukrainian refugees happens in winter: not only will people have to be fed, but also the rooms where they will be housed will have to be heated. Further degradation of trade and economic relations between the EU and China. Formally, there is no reason to say that Europe's trade relations with China may soon collapse. Nevertheless, if relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate sharply, which cannot be ruled out, the EU could be dragged into another sanctions war. PRC-EU relations have steadily deteriorated as European and U.S. policies in Asia have gradually converged. The PRC, in turn, is moving toward a rapprochement with Russia, which is causing even more resentment in Washington. Most likely, relations between Europe and China will deteriorate further, which is completely inconsistent with the economic interests of the EU.
by FOREXN1
27
EURUSD Recovering!!! Euro have a GDP above the forecast. And today the PPI of US was released and the price is following the inflation that was realeased yesterday. Today PPI (mom) show us a -0,4%. The prices are increasing in US and Euro seems to start recovering the usual currency price. We can see the MACD almost crossing 0, and we can see before the price was oversolding, and when the volume started to be higher the price start to have the "correction" We also have a strong support, that was crossed in September 08, but was just a retest and after that went long The yellow line is a 1H resistance, that has been constatly tested The white arrows is our three prediction that could occur, but if the price cross the blue box, the trade must close and it has to be analysed again
Long
by AFCapital21
EURGBP - GBP will be stronger! This morning UK released very important data about employment and unemployment . Employment shows a 40k of employed poeple, lower than forecast (128k), however the unemployment change is lower 0,2% with change from 3,8% to 3,6%. BoE also want to tame the inflation. Euro have also a data released about economic sentiment and is pessimist, showing us a raise in the numbers, more than expected. In the chart we can see a descendent line in MACD and a consolidation zone on the candles chart. The SL would be 0.86910 , just a little bit above from the resistance
Short
by AFCapital21
1
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze (Short term)!!!Euro/U.S.Dollar is running in the Heavy Support zone and Support line. I expect that Euro/U.S.Dollar will go up to the Resistance zone in the next hours. 🔅Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD) Timeframe 1H⏰ 🟢Heavy Support zone🟢:1.000$ until 0.9895$ 🔴Resistance zone🔴:1.01392$ until 1.0089$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
8
EURUSD Analysis Using Horizontal Support Resistance at 1.03488EURUSD currency market is still bearish. Watch for sell signals below price level 1.03488. || || Pin Bar formed at price level 1.03488 on October 9, 1989. Horizontal Level is both support and resistance at level 1.03488 beginning in May 1999 and ending in January 2000. Major price move on December 30, 2002 from price level 1.03488. Multiple touches at price level 1.03488 from December 19, 2016 to January 2, 2017. Price level 1.03488 is both support and resistance in year 2022.
Short
by TradeLive-
EURO USD LONG EUR/USD LONG TO 1,35 As per technical side SANK as per 1M Stoch RSI. That factor will certainly prevail which will cause stronger EUR and regaining the ratio in a favor of EU currency. *MACD. multy cross on 1W *1M KDJ bottomed. *RSI hit the bottom on 1M timeframe. Strong EURO will make Europe less competitive and leading towards implosion in certain timeframe (strong currency, bigger export prices, unable to " compete" and participate "under same conditions". ECB made 2 stimulation packages in an amount of 500 bn + 250 bn euros in order to increase liquity. US added few trillions too, now continualy increases interest rates. As every other stornger economy, Europe will become less competitive, (gas price is 3000$) and so on. Petro dollar benefits from this, but, eventualy, US economy will collide and EU will follow.
Long
by milanjelic
13
How long will EUR/USD parity last? After the EURUSD reached and broke below parity, an analysis of the situation is in order. Last week, the euro failed to close above 1.0320 and the 50-Day Moving Average, presenting a potential bull trap and setting up the opportunity for short sellers, as illustrated by the orange circle. Although the pair broke below the parity on August 22, a decent pullback is on the table, as investors become uncomfortable with the unusual valuation of the pair. One only has to look back to July 14, to witness the pullback in the EUR/USD after an intraday probing of the parity level. Bears should remember that we might still be in the middle of a downward leg. So, the medium-term decline may extend to new depths. 0.9900 has already been tested and rejected but a more granular look at the candles might be necessary at this point. The intraday battle The EUR/USD spent most of its time consolidating below parity, organizing near 0.9930, before the London opening and strong European data was released. On the hourly chart, you can see the first of the two big blue candles forming after consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 2.1 points in August, from a record low of -27 in July. Consumer confidence was expected to slide further into negative territory, so the upwards revision came as a surprise to the markets. Two subsequent hourly candle wicks broke above parity to test the staying power of a below-parity EUR/USD. For now, Support is building below 0.9960. In the short term, the market might need to work a lot to take out buyers at 0.9900.
by BlackBull_Markets
Could a short or long term bottom be in for EURUSD?The situation is very tricky as Europe's condition worsens. As the global economy is in a depression, the USD could keep going higher and higher, especially as the world faces more problems than the US. In his tread, Marko Papic outlines very eloquently why he thinks the European situation isn't as bad as many think, and he could be right. I am not as optimistic as he is, but there is a chance that the market has bottomed with the sweep of the previous low and the close above it. Even if it hasn't, it provides a nice setup for the short term long. The EURUSD parity is a fundamental psychological level where we could see a lot of chops before it goes either direction. twitter.com
Long
by BitcoinMacro
Personally I think Red path wins here.Opinion: - Biden inflation pivot ahead of mid-terms BIDEN: WE ARE SEEING PROGRESS ON GASOLINE PRICE REDUCTIONS AND INFLATION. - FOMC minutes announcing 50bps or lower futures hikes to "Gauge the effect of previous hikes" - Mid-terms nearing and political funding needs - E.U cost of living crisis/ German PPI @ 37% / Continued conflict in Ukraine & commodities crisis GERMAN PPI YOY ACTUAL 37.2% (FORECAST 31.8%, PREVIOUS 32.7%) $MACRO With these factors in mind and an acknowledgement that we do need more QT and hikes; all the while, taking into account that any further tightening will place us on a 3rd quarter of negative GDP growth. It is my opinion that instead the political needs will be more important. This makes me think that the E.U in the name of self-preservation will subsidize house-holds, while increasing barriers to debt over winter. ("Controlled" inflationary action). U.S should as announced by the FOMC minutes go through a period of hike stabilization (Re-instating stability in the procurement of structured leverage / Inflation action) From here I see 2 option: 1. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a fast recovery. 2. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a short lived fast recovery. (A.K.A tightening and QT break). Lasting possibly until the end of the mid-terms. What I do not think is possible: A return to BTC sub 9k when inflation is running high. What to keep in mind: Inflation comes second to job market. Recession/Depression is a much worse evil than inflation. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
CME:BTC1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1