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Could a short or long term bottom be in for EURUSD?The situation is very tricky as Europe's condition worsens. As the global economy is in a depression, the USD could keep going higher and higher, especially as the world faces more problems than the US. In his tread, Marko Papic outlines very eloquently why he thinks the European situation isn't as bad as many think, and he could be right. I am not as optimistic as he is, but there is a chance that the market has bottomed with the sweep of the previous low and the close above it. Even if it hasn't, it provides a nice setup for the short term long. The EURUSD parity is a fundamental psychological level where we could see a lot of chops before it goes either direction. twitter.com
Long
by BitcoinMacro
Personally I think Red path wins here.Opinion: - Biden inflation pivot ahead of mid-terms BIDEN: WE ARE SEEING PROGRESS ON GASOLINE PRICE REDUCTIONS AND INFLATION. - FOMC minutes announcing 50bps or lower futures hikes to "Gauge the effect of previous hikes" - Mid-terms nearing and political funding needs - E.U cost of living crisis/ German PPI @ 37% / Continued conflict in Ukraine & commodities crisis GERMAN PPI YOY ACTUAL 37.2% (FORECAST 31.8%, PREVIOUS 32.7%) $MACRO With these factors in mind and an acknowledgement that we do need more QT and hikes; all the while, taking into account that any further tightening will place us on a 3rd quarter of negative GDP growth. It is my opinion that instead the political needs will be more important. This makes me think that the E.U in the name of self-preservation will subsidize house-holds, while increasing barriers to debt over winter. ("Controlled" inflationary action). U.S should as announced by the FOMC minutes go through a period of hike stabilization (Re-instating stability in the procurement of structured leverage / Inflation action) From here I see 2 option: 1. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a fast recovery. 2. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a short lived fast recovery. (A.K.A tightening and QT break). Lasting possibly until the end of the mid-terms. What I do not think is possible: A return to BTC sub 9k when inflation is running high. What to keep in mind: Inflation comes second to job market. Recession/Depression is a much worse evil than inflation. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
CME:BTC1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze (Short term)!!!EURO completed Main wave 4 by Expanding Ending Diagonal in the resistance zone. if you want to look at the road map of Euro/U.S.Dollar, please look at 👇 🔅Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe 15min⏰ 🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 1.028$ until 1.025$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
10
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze!!Euro is moving in Descending channel and makes the Double Three Correction(WXY) for completing the main wave B. I expect that Euro will go down to the Support zone. And then it goes up to the Resistance zone & Important Resistance line. 🔅Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe 1H⏰ 🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 1.028$ until 1.025$ 🟢Support Zone🟢:1.0079$ until 1.0068$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
by pejman_zwin
2
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse Pivot Point: 137.6 Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8 Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
EUROPE is going to enter into recession soonThe closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become. Main one being natural gas. Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes. Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most. Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price. More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs. Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer. By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical: We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios. 1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher. 2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
RUS:NG1!Long
by Artem_Dishel
9
Fading rallies in EURGBPEURGBP - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.8475 (stop at 0.8505) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 0.8390 and 0.8325 Resistance: 0.8460 / 0.8600 / 0.8720 Support: 0.8325 / 0.8200 / 0.8060 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
1
Euro (EUR) vs The Dollar (USD) Goes Nuclear, A 20 Years EventWe have parity between the Euro and US Dollar for the first time in 20 years, something completely unexpected but it is happening now as the world changes and evolves. This month took the EURUSD to a long-term support that based on technical analysis can lead to a pullback before prices continue to drop. The current EURUSD bear market has been going for 5113 days/170 months or a little over 14 years. I can't really say about timing but a pullback is due based on the technicals... On a pullback, the main target/resistance is the counter-trendline, plotted here in blue named "Falling trendline". Another possible scenario is straight down before a recovery shows up. Chart: Nuclear war? Namaste.
by MasterAnanda
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement. Keep in mind the fundamentals: FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc. Patience is key! TJ
by Trade_Journal
$EUR - UPDATED CHART (WHERE TO NEXT?)$EUR - UPDATED CHART (WHERE TO NEXT?) HAPPY FRIDAY! Soo...what a great week right one of my best weeks in ages great volatility for this summer as its understandable, now we do have NFP but I have ONE last remaining support for EURO to complete this inverse Cup & Handle Pattern. We could reach 0.99550 areas. Today is another new low but we do also have NFP. Any lower of those areas I expect yr 2000 - 2002 price areas to come into play - PARITY! Next week I will be looking at this pair very careful and I will be sharing in the various platforms I am part of. Also, be wise - Don't be picking bottoms.. Be careful trading out there, keep an eye on the key levels and take care! TJ
by Trade_Journal
EUR/USD hits parity as short-term rate differentials widenThe euro-dollar pair ( EUR/USD ) achieved parity today, an occurrence not seen in nearly two decades (November 2002), as a fresh energy crisis in Europe threatens the onset of a recession. It's been a rough year for the euro, losing nearly 11% of its value versus the dollar since January and 15% over the last 12 months. The short-term (2-year) bond yields divergence between the US and Europe continues to widen, as the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to pursue distinct monetary policy paths. The yield on a 2-year US Treasury note is 2.6 percentage points (260 basis points) higher than Germany's yield on the same maturity ( DE02Y ), the largest spread since the start of the year. The upbeat data on the U.S. job market that was released on Friday cemented analysts' expectations of a further 0.75-percentage-point hike by the Federal Reserve in July, propelling the dollar's broad strength. The exceptional resiliency of the U.S. job market has bolstered the convictions of an aggressive Federal Reserve. Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased much more than predicted in June (up 372k vs. 265k consensus), the unemployment rate stayed at historically low levels of 3.6%, and wages continued to climb at a solid clip. It implies that the labour market is still exceptionally tight and that the US economy is not yet in a phase of demand contraction, implying the need to persist with interest rate rises at a quick pace. Even though the 14-day RSI continues to show oversold levels, from a technical point of view, widening US-Europe rate differentials, reflecting differing monetary trajectories by the Fed and ECB, might continue to exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair in the near future. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom