“EuroStoxx: going up as expected" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Vision Explanation:
- Price broke the Descending Trendline and started its up move.
- Price reached our first target at the Resistance Zone .
- Price has potential to move up towards our main target at the Major Resistance Zone .
- However, the Bearish Divergence could be indicating a pullback to the Support Zone before going up.
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Updates coming soon!
European
EU Elections, the USA isn't ready for peace & RF monetary policyIt is not surprising that nothing significant in the dynamics of prices for financial assets occurred duo to calm mood on the USA and the UK financial markets.
Tuesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics also promises to be a very calm day. But we do not wait for a lull in the markets - after 3 days of rest, traders and investors with redoubled efforts could begin to follow current trends and news background.
The main news on Monday was the announcement of the results of elections to the European Parliament. The main parties of the European Union retained their positions. And the main fear, the victory of the populists, turned out to be only a fear: Euro-skeptics and the ultra-right took 171 places in total, against 503 places of four pro-European parties. In this light, we believe that our position - buying the euro against the dollar - is one less threat.
Trump went to Japan over the weekend. According to him, the United States has achieved "significant progress" in trade negotiations with Japan. But it is not necessary to count on any final deal upcoming days. Nevertheless, this kind of information rather favorably and reassuringly influenced the mood of investors and traders.
As for the main front of trade wars - between the United States and China. Trump said that the United States is not ready for the current version of the deal "and that it is not easy to pay duties to Washington for Chinese authorities, therefore they will agree to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, in the end. So the United States will continue to push.
Quite interesting information about the Russian ruble was recently shared in Bloomberg. Experts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lower the rate on June 14, and then again in September and December. So, after a rather long period of inactivity, the Central Bank of Russia is entering an active phase of easing monetary policy. What does this mean for the ruble? That it will become even less “attractive” for foreign investors. We consider such information as confirmation of our basic trading idea - the sale of the Russian ruble. Considering that recently the Russian ruble has strengthened, we believe that its sale is more relevant than ever.
Since nothing special happened yesterday, our trading positions did not change: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will carefully buy a pound.
We are preparing for European elections & referendum in the UKToday, we shall consider important topics, near future and opportunities.
Elections to the European Parliament will be held in Europe this week. (Elections will be held in 28 countries from May 23 to 26, 2019, 751 members will be elected. Those elected people will represent more than 512 million Europeans, which makes these elections the largest transnational elections in history.) The event is quite dangerous for the euro buyers. The fact is that the victory of the euro “skeptics” might cause difficulties in adopting the EU budget. And the Italian populists, with their plans to violate the EU budget deficit requirements, do not contribute to the faith growth in the bright future of the euro.
Another potential victim of election results could be the pound. It is all about the attention that has been focused on internal political squabbles and negotiations in the UK. There are two sides in Brexit process, they are the UK and the EU. However, the EU could not make a compromise and then there will be no agreement at all. And there will be a “rigid” Brexit. In this light, we continue to remind you of the risks incising working in pound pairs, especially when it comes to buying pounds.
Confirming our thesis about how is everything uncertain over the pound and Brexit, we cannot but note that British Prime Minister Theresa May will invite members of the House of Commons of the British Parliament to hold a new Brexit referendum. May wants to propose to British to decide, on their own, whether to approve her version of the deal or not, following the example of the majority of parliamentarians who have repeatedly voted against, or to abandon the idea of “divorce” altogether. Pound after the appearance of this news soared by a hundred points, but then returned to the original.
(in chronological order of publication) Inflation statistics from the UK, data on retail sales in Canada, as well as the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting publication, are the most interesting events.
We note that recently the Canadian dollar has strengthened in the foreign exchange market. This is due to news that the US will soon cancel duties on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. That is, the attitude of the markets towards the Canadian dollar is positive. So, the positive statistics on retail sales will definitely give an upward momentum to the currency of Canada. Recall that this week we recommend looking for points for buying of the Canadian dollar.
Our trading positions for today are as follows: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
A different outlook for French Equities....2019 prediction=> Here we have a different view for French Equities as those who are following our telegram will already know. The case can be made that we are in a very large IVth wave of the V wave pattern since post 2008 crisis.
=> From a technical perspective this looks like a very large correction and should not continue its decline further than 38.2% (4525.x)
=> Anything below here will start to show serious cracks in the uptrend and will suggest the top for French Equities (not expected) may already be set in stone.
=> Here for 2019 we will add exposure to the upside on the test of 4525 with tight stops at 4165.
=> Best of luck all those in French and other European Equities
GBPUSD Short / Doom Drop incoming?The decision of the Brexit Referendum resulted in the key price level of 1.43 to be broken in 2016.
This support turned into resistance and the price successfully rejected the price in the beginning of the year.
A nice short opportunity presents itself: Wait for the weekly candle to close below 1.2730
First Take Profit 1.2509 (0.786 FIB retracement level) (conservative TP)
Second Take Profit 1.2251 (all time low) (good TP)
Third Take Profit 1.0011 (risky TP)
The Dollar is King This chart shows a relationship that every trader who is serious with the business has to keep in mind. The dollar is king, A STRONG DOLLAR ends up WEAKENING
EMERGING MARKETS . This causes a capital flow away from them into safer dollar assets.
Right now , my game plan for the foreseeable future is to look for a short with good risk reward in the EEM as a whole , or break it down into its constituents and look for specific shorts in its holdings.
This dollar strength will also affect commodities , Stocks tied to commodities , XLE , and a myriad of other assets
Exciting times.
VW is a good way to celebrate the European in youThe trendline is being followed closely for this American version of the European Automotiv Manufacturer stock. If it retraces just a little more it would be easier to assume the stock price would soar to the 1.618 fibonacci level. The only problem with that valuation is the industry of this successful company. In Warren Buffett's book about what he looks at when deciding whether a company is a good investment, he clearly identifies the high overhead of manufacturing automobiles. The machinery that it takes to make the cars changes every year, and the competition may be the fiercest of any industry. This adds a lot of cost to the companies that operate in this stressful industry. That being said, many of us are biased in favor of VW. The company and it's cars and vehicles are a part of our history. My family members work for this company. Buy what you love is a good strategy with this European stock. There is much upside and still some downside possibility. This is a cheap price though, assuming it could make it's way to 2X this price. Stops need to be in place in this marketplace, because nothing is certain. Except for death and taxes. My family has approved of the newer models and that is enough for me. Liking this trendline bounce but wanting the huge extension; and skeptical of the automotive industry stocks as anything but BUY and Hold.
Positive expectations in European markets #Ibex35 Spanish indexBME:IBC FX:ESP35 TVC:IBEX35
After the worries of Wall Street subside, the technical analysis tells us that we have entered an area far from the minimum of the year and waiting to rise slowly as it goes overcoming resistances.
1) Above the downtrend line (yellow), still remains 4 interesting resistances: 50 EMA, 100 EMA, 38.2% fibonacci (9826) and the week's maximun (9806)
2) American futures indices $SPX $YM $NQ DJ:DJUS broke out thru the falling triangle today but still waiting to see the close. European markets are affected by American futures positive & negative about #TradeWar, #ColdWar, #Tariff
3) Volatility is low now but you know what happenned with bad news #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar #ColdWar
Excellent opportunity to consider these markets also:
XETR:DAX INDEX:CAC INDEX:MOY0 FY1! SX5E
Careful to be too optimistic there are doubts about issues: Trump, geopolitical risk, Syria, Russia, Cold War.
Big picture:
European markets looking for a green close DAX30 IBEX35FX:GER30 FX:ESP35 BME:IBC FX:FRA40 INDEX:CAC
European markets looks good after a negative open and leaving behind the minimum of the session they are seeking to reach important supports. FX:GER30 have resisted and maintained the 12000 support.
US futures ES1! point to a slightly bullish opening, so that European indices are not affected by Chinese tariffs directly or with collapsing technologies, point to a positive close.
Excellent opportunity to buy in these markets: FX:GER30 FX:ESP35 BME:IBC FX:FRA40 INDEX:CAC
finance.yahoo.com
DASHEURHello all,
It has been a while for me to update Dash against the euro. However there seems to be an exciting (short/mid term) opportunity ahead.
As Dash consolidates further into the end of the triangle, it could break in two different ways.
Red bear line: if we break the triangle bearish, expect fall back until at least 454 euro
However, I think Dash will break through bullish based on several reasons.
1. If it is the first bullish wave after correction,most likely we will see 5th wave.
2. RSI is in favor of bulls
3. MACD mouth is open (in bullish way)
First bullish target; 602 euro
Second bullish target; 660 euro
EURAUD 4H Chart: Formed a flagThe Euro has extended its gains against the Australian Dollar. The currency pair continued to trade in the same pattern after it touched the lower boundary of the dominant channel at the 1.3663 mark.
As it can be observed, the EUR/AUD pair has formed a flag and is likely to breakout from the rectangle to either direction.
Technical indicators suggest that the currency exchange rate could continue its movement north to test the resistance cluster of the weekly R2 and the monthly R3 near 1.5868.
EURCAD 4H Chart: Full review EUR/CAD has been trading in an ascending channel since early January. The currency exchange rate has formed a new high during this period.
The bull movement was temporarily stopped by the weekly R1 at 1.5417 and retraces south for a brief period of time. The pair is likely to breach the dotted line and move further south.
Regarding the short-term, the pair might find support at the weekly S1 1.5203 combined with the 100—hour simple moving average. If looking at the Fibonacci retracement level, the pair is likely to move further south until it reaches the 50.00% level. This retracement can be measured with the low at 1.4819 and the high at 1.5417.
EURAUD 4H Chart: Fully Review After approaching the upper trend-line of a dominant channel down pattern, EUR/AUD currency exchange rate began to decline. After reaching the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level.
The common European currency is slowly moving downwards to test the dominant channel down-trend line up pattern. This retracement can be measured with the high of 1.5772 and the low of 1.5183.
Regarding the short term, the pair is set to approach the lower trend-line of the dominant channel and is likely to be stopped by the weekly PP at 1.5140. Afterwards a temporary retracement upwards should occur.
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Fully reviewAfter approaching the upper trend-line of a dominant channel down pattern, EUR/AUD currency exchange rate began to decline.
After reaching the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. The common European currency is slowly moving downwards to test the dominant channel down-trend line up pattern. This retracement can be measured with the high of 1.5772 and the low of 1.5183.
Regarding the short term, the pair is set to approach the lower trend-line of the dominant channel and is likely to be stopped by the weekly PP at 1.5140. Afterwards a temporary retracement upwards should occur.
DASH last pushAs described in last analysis, DASH reached the Fib 1.786 target and is now consolidating. A bullish triangle pattern is forming on the 4H chart.
If this pattern breaks in a bullish way, this could be the fifth Elliot wave, and the last wave before the correction downwards.
- Safe buy target: 676 (after bullish break)
- Risky buy target 649 ->
- Sell target 765
- Note that pattern can also break in bearish way (around 635 euro)
XMR preparing for wave 5As XMR has a small pullback from its strong upward trend it prepares for wave 5.
The pullback was relatively small compared to the Fib levels expected (0.382) in a wave 4. It was stopped at the previous high (132) before it stabalized a bit.
On a four hour chart we can see a cup and handle pattern forming itself which could indicate just the right bullish pattern to launch XMR's wave 5. For people who want to ride wave 5, this would be the moment to buy.
- Bullish target; 195 EURO
- Bearish note; pattern could also result in bearish double top which is strong bearish.
- MACD looks still bullish and open
- RSI is slightly overbought but nothing crazy compared to last push in August.
REP Breaking triangleAfter first push until previous all time high, REPEUR breaks out of triangle in a bullish way.
Based on Elliot wave counting, I expect the upward wave to hit Fib 1.618.
MACD is showing turning direction in bullish trend.
Buy target: 24 - 26.5 euro (break of previous high)
First stop: 33 euro
Second stop: 40.5 euro
Good luck.
Augur finally movingLast days Augur (REP) finally rallied up hitting the September high of 26 EUR.
From an Elliot wave perspective:
Possible ending of wave one due to cooling down of price action. Expected pullback of wave 2 around 19 EUR (Fib 0.5) Wave 3 expected to go until 41EUR (1.618) which would be new all time high. Resistance expected around previous all time high which is Fib 1 level. Wave 4 pullback until previous high again (40.5 EUR, fib 0.382 which is normal for wave 4 pullback)
Indicators show overbought position and therefore pullback expected which could be a wave 2. MACd shows positive upward trend wxith open crocodile mouth.
Possible buy in; 21 EUR which is after Wave 2 retracement
Stolt-Nielsen Up trendCHXEUR:SNIO
Stolt-Nielsen is in an uptrend, and it just hit bottom. There is a decent profit potential, to little risk, if you have a target at 145 and a stop loss at 110. It is a slow moving stock, and the low volatility should mean, that you don't get to experience any unwanted surprises.