CAD slides with oil as WTI slips back below $58 per barrelDuring today’s European trading session, the risk tone soured with EMEA indices negative across the board and measures of volatility elevated; although, safe haven currencies remained broadly weaker.
Leading European indices to the downside is the IBEX 35 at -1.13%, followed by the FTSE 100 at -0.94%, the Euro Stoxx 50 at -0.65% and the DAX and CAC 40 at -0.62% and -0.47%, respectively.
In the FX complex, despite the moderation from the risk on tone seen in the Asia-Pacific session, JPY is still the session’s laggard. However, with that said, against most counterparts, the safe haven has pulled off its worst levels.
Another notable underperformer on the session is CAD, with Reuters noting, “Canadian dollar holds near two week low as oil slides.” Indeed, WTI has relinquished the $60.00, $59.00 and $58.00 per barrel levels.
In contrast, GBP is currently leading the FX majors to the upside; however, analysts continue to voice concerns over tensions between the UK and EU which threaten the UK’s vaccination rollout.
Looking ahead, expect central bank rhetoric to remain a key theme of the day with numerous Fed speakers on the docket. Of course, expect developments in WTI to remain key for CAD and the overall risk tone to remain key for the antipodeans and safe havens.
Eurostoxx
Elliott Wave View: Further Upside Expected in EurostoxxShort term Elliott Wave View suggests that Eurostoxx rallies from January 28 low as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from January 28 low, wave 1 ended at 3742.53 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 3622.24. Internal of wave 2 unfolded as a Flat where wave ((a)) ended at 3643.33 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 3728.65. Index then resumed lower and ended wave ((c)) of 2 at 3622.24.
Index has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2 low, wave (i) ended at 3696.91 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 3671.63. Index then resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 3728.47, pullback in wave (iv) ended at 3707.72, and wave (v) ended at 3742.50. The 5 waves move completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Index then ended pullback in wave ((ii)) at 3656.63. Wave ((iii)) of 3 is currently in progress as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave (i) ended at 3714.26 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 3666.38. Expect wave (iii) to end soon, and Index to pullback in wave (iv) before it resumes higher again. As far as pivot at 3656.63 low stays intact, expect Index to extend higher and dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
Eurostoxx Showing 5 Waves From March Lows Favoring More StrengthThe Cycle from March 2020 low in Eurostoxx shows an incomplete sequence favoring more strength in the index as far as it remains above 3476.57 low seen on 1/28/2021. In the chart below, we can see that wave (4) unfolded as a double three structure where wave W ended at 3540.25 low. Wave X bounce ended at 3607.42 high and wave Y ended at 3476.57 low. After reaching the 3489.97- 3462.15 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of W-X and saw a strong reaction higher.
Above from there, the rally higher took place as an impulse structure where wave ((i)) ended at 3567.06 high. Wave ((ii)) ended at 3481.44 low, wave ((iii)) ended at 3632.67 high. While wave ((iv)) ended at 3599.36 low. Wave ((v)) ended at 3681.82 high & thus completed wave 1. Below from there, the index is doing a wave 2 pullback to correct the short term cycle from 1/28/2021 low. The internals of that pullback is unfolding as an Elliott wave double three structure where wave ((w)) ended yesterday at 3628.47 low. And as far as it remains below the 3681.82 high then wave ((x)) bounce is expected to fail for another leg lower in wave ((y)). To complete the 7 swings structure before resuming higher again.
EURO STOXX 50 #RRR 1:4 Short Setup LL and LHHI BIG PLAYERS,
on EURO STOXX 50 I found a nice LL and LH signal for shortsetup.
In 1 h chart the last low breakdown the previous low and in the 15 min chart it seems also like a lower low and a lower high.
The RRR (Risk-Return-Ratio) would be 1:4.
Kind regards
NXT2017
EuroStoxx: divergence with RSI but...Hi Guys,
the divergence with RSI does not mean EuroStoxx will drop. It only shows that despite sentiment declining, index value keep going up.
Where are the opportunities?
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
The European Giant is at a consolidation periodAfter the huge drop in the beginning of the week, the market couldn't recover from the sudden shock it received, instead it kept consolidating forming a whipsaw closing the week with uncertainty.
We may see a waking up of the market by the start of the new week but since there is US presidential elections next week, things may go either great or worse.
The European giant is continuing to drop downThe market continued to drop down from the beginning of this week making it one of several market that fell during week. We might see more dropping of the market due to France's foreign policy and its conflict with the Arab world specially since France monopolizes the biggest part in the Eurostoxx50 which negatively affected the rest of the participating countries in this giant stock market.
ridethepig | Stoxx 50 into the elections and beyond📌 STOXX 50
The purpose of the operation here is a clean and simple 5-3-5 sequence to the downside which means the lows are still exposed to another flank attack from those accompanying bears.
This is a very important few weeks and months for volatility and in a roundabout way we must take full advantage of this while it takes place. I don't consider the manoeuvre here to be any different from the elementary operation we took at the beginning of the year in European Equities as we are in the same complacent environment with covid escalating out of control.
As we have discussed together before, the herd must always be wrong and recognising this and the misconception of the v-shapers can only lead to an eventual test of previous support. To the topside, invalidation will come via a closing breach of 3490/3500 as this is the level which is protected via its own barrier.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year.
In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down.
It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX:
This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts.
Unemployment Claims:
US 2's 5's:
Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475.
As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Euro stoxx50Would be looking to sell this when it retests to 3395 asuming it doest break above 3401. looking at selling to 3345 taking partials and breaking even at 3373.
EuroStoxx Long Futures Sep 21'20 ContractTrading Sep Futures with a Long bias based on the thesis:
US DJ, S&P rally seems to be peaking on its post-COVID rally.
ECO data out from the US generally seems strong as well.
Believe that international indices like NIFTY and STOXX will follow-suit.
Risk: Most of the rally has been done, hence watch for range trading from now till Sep.
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E) Peculiar BREAKOUT!
Euro stocks index broke below a horizontal neckline of a h&s pattern.
we have a nice conjunction of a daily/4h candle close below confirming the violation.
now the price retesting the broken level.
I expect seeing a bearish continuation to
2656 (next minor support)
2579
Could Euro Stoxx and Bitcoin Signaling Warning?Well that was an eventful weekend. With less than 10 hours to go before the Bitcoin halving, the cryptocurrency markets are attempting a set up for a relief rally. In other news Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the current issues facing the U.S. economy later this Wednesday. Heading into this speech, it is difficult to bet against the market. I am conflicted though. There are warning signs. The Bitcoin and Euro Stoxx 50 charts could be providing hints.
Relief into Halving?
Over the weekend Bitcoin suffered a set back as it attempted a breakout above 10,0000. The weekly close will likely result on the rally officially ending. The proof : The weekly candle (not shown) ended in a doji reversal on spot exchanges and exhibited the highest volume since the March 16 weekly candle. Furthermore, the two month old bullish ascending trendline that supported that rally was finally breached (see daily chart below).
Price can absolutely rally in the interim. A reason would be the ridiculous CME Gap that many traders have already pointed out. See the 4-hour Bitcoin Futures CME chart below.
The picture on lower time frames is an absolutely mess unless you turn the noise off. Here I have the 1-hour line chart of Bitcoin. The king of crypto is exhibiting signing of an inverse head and shoulders pattern reversal. Given that the pattern is on lower time frames, I give it a lower probability in completing and/or reaching its measured target. Trade this pattern with caution, as the risk is still to the downside.
Bitcoin is poised to rebound from whatever low it posts in the short term. So it is very difficult for me to be bearish on the short term. However, that being said I will continue to emphasize that Bitcoin could be in for a lengthly consolidation prior to making any new highs. BTFD and sell the rallies. Bias: BTFD .
Europe Showing Sign of Weakness
Above is the chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50), an index that is made up of the 50 largest and most liquid stock in the European zone. After a 50% rally off the March low, the EU50 has not been able to reclaim its high. Europe could be signaling a warning for stock market investors and traders that the high may be in. Its a chart to watch! Bias: Bearish.
Stars Aligning for Rally to End
Not calling any top here, but I do think it is time to rethink the upside on the tech driven rally. With Bitcoin and now Europe exhibiting weakness, the warning signs are there that the rally is nearing an end. Until then, I'll be playing the relief rallies and promising set ups. Happy trading and talk to you all soon!
AIRBUS (AIR) Two Scenarios Explained
hey guys,
airbus is consolidating on a key structure support level.
the price is stuck on 50 level for more that one month!
on 4H we see a classic contraction with a formation of a descending triangle.
the side of the breakout of the triangle will show us the future direction of the stock.
because the trend is bearish, we are bearish biased here and we expect further bearish continuation.
however, in case of a bearish breakout out profits will be relatively limited.
we will aim at 40 and this will be the next key structure.
in case of a bullish breakout of a falling trendline, we can expect a bullish continuation,
and aim at 76 level.
be prepared for both scenarios and adjust your trading plan accordingly!
good luck!