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Eurozone

Rising Wedge - Shorting the EuroVolume is going down, while the price is going up. The RSI hasn't been able to even touch oversold and is stuck in a range, while the price is going up. Clear divergence on both and it is bearish. To me this Euro price action has been a healthy pullback and I am expecting this wedge to break to the downside. When it completes with good volume, I'd be shorting the market. Right now, I can't see a clear entry or exit points, but a break below 1.065 would be very bearish to me. Some important news are coming out on Thursday and Friday out of the US and I would like to see how they play out.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
Eurostoxx 50 : Bearish dynamic & resistance areas, better shortThe EU stocks index Eurostoxx 50 (MOY0) has made a nice rise since the Brexit (end June), but the buyers are currently facing some difficulties to go higher. In fact, the european stock market is inside a bearish dynamic since early 2015, as characterized by the downside trendline resistance (blue) and the bearish 200 days moving average. In this case, the sellers are likely to become majoritary again due the the following reasons : - Proximity with the downside trendline resistance - Beginning of a retreat at 3100 points, first resistance - This resistance area matches with the 50% retracement of the violent drop we have seen in december - february. Both the long term dynamics and levels should prevent the buyers to go further and initiate a pull back to where markets were in september. Here is the precise strategy : - Open short at the current price (3080 points on Friday close) - Stop @ 3120 pts (above the resistance for market noise) - First target @ 3025 points (close 50% of the position, reward/risk = 1.38) - Second target @ 2940 points (close the other 50% of the position, reward/risk = 3.5)
INDEX:SX5EShort
by AlexandreNygal
Are Brexit fears oversold?Obviously, being smart, sane, savvy and logical traders, we all recognise that there is a monstrous Godzilla formation looming over cable right now. I don't mean some obscure Japanese candlestick formation, but the actual Godzilla, poised to run rampant and squash the UK into smithereens if it votes leave in June. I would contend that the opposite may be the case. When the ever entertaining Boris Johnson came out as pro Brexit, there was a mini tumble in cable. Journalists perhaps not that au fait with markets warned that our friend Godzilla was stretching and limbering up for action. Really, it wasn't such a big deal. The fact is that Boris was expected by many to support the Government line. His declaration was seen by many as a politically motivated direct challenge to Cameron, and call to arms in the race to replace him. New Labour were able to rule untroubled by the Tories for so long due to the Tories poisonous split over Europe. Over time, Cameron has managed to unite the party, but as the vote runs nearer, its becoming more apparent that the party could get torn apart once again. Boris' decision was the equivalent of setting fire to a bridge, and undermining the Prime Minister very publicly. As seen with Blair and Brown, handovers can be troublesome affairs and breed instability and uncertainty over policy which genuinely unsettle markets. The fact that we all need to remember is that markets price information in. People will be watching polls, betting markets, political declarations, corporate decision making and the like for inklings into how the vote will go. Investors and traders will respond to this data long in advance and prepare themselves accordingly. There will not be a situation where a vote is made and then at 4am when the results are announced, the world jumps up and sells cable. There may be a short term dip lower, but I suspect that this is an opportunity to get long. Chart wise, as you can see here from the weekly GBP/USD chart, there is a multi year down trend which at present is running in tandem with the 50W SMA lower. RSE looks uninspiring and set to drift along in the lower half of the range. Slow stochastics have shown an interesting bit of widening which are worth watching. It could be an indication of a push higher if continued, but equally a further cross is an indication of continuation. The obvious thought is that there is tough resistance ahead and all the fundamental focus is on downside risks. However, as mentioned in my other post, Grexit is a very real possibility this summer , and the issue could overshadow the entire Brexit scenario. Throughout the ever lasting eurozone debt crisis, the UK and sterling has offered investors a bit of safe haven effect. Should the UK look likely vote to leave we could see a dip to lows around 1.38 (approx), the long term low where I can imagine a boat load of orders sit, before investors pile in on the bid as the Greek situation causes systemic financial instability.... again.
Long
by GFunk1
BUY EURUSD Good afternoon dear colleagues, investors and traders. Your attention is given fundamentally - technical analysis of the currency pair: EURUSD. "Mario Draghi - a volley of all weapons, sorry for that purpose by" Last week Mario Draghi announced a comprehensive stimulus that should lead to a weakening of the single currency, as well as to an increase in inflation. - Reduced refinancing rate to 0%. - Increasing incentives on E. 20 billion. - Reduction of the deposit rate to - 0.40%. - Heightening tool purchases in QE. - Valid TLTROII program. These actions were predicted by us 28.02.2015 (Https://vk.com/wermelgion?w=wall-73415082_1811/all) The first 3 steps lead to increased risks in the bond market and the creation of it, "Liquidity Risk" (uvelechenie Prize for it). But the fourth measure gives life to financial instruments and banks to refinance their obligations under other long-term loans from the ECB at 0%. QE program is not able to cause inflation to rise, even on the horizon of 3 - 4 years. TLTRO - 4 summer program of cheap loans to banks, inflation is not dispersed, as all loans that banks get forwarded to the financial markets. Reduced refinancing rate - lowers interest rates on the bonds: for example Germany's bonds: 2 - year - 0.46% 5 - year - 0.25% 10 - year: 0.31% ECB actions will not lead to higher inflation and tools using the ECB is only stimulatory DCT. As these actions are reflected in the German bond market: Germany Sovereign Bond Index (index of sovereign bonds) - Moved into negative territory before: -0.6% Investment Grade European Corporate Bond Index (investment grade corporate bond index) - Significantly increased up to: 4.91% The graphs you can see from this link: www.bloomberg.com .. For the single currency, this means only one thing: the ECB plans to lower interest rates by increasing the money supply, as well as to spur business and consumption by providing cheap credits. However, this does not happen. We see a great example of the Fed, and perhaps it will spur job growth, but in order that it would stimulate inflation need a certain time after the unemployment rate closer to the conditions of full employment. We continue to be bullish on the single currency is already causing 3 factors: 1) Basic fundamentals are at a height of: • The dynamics of balance of payments 25 V. • The dynamics of the trade balance 22 B. As well as the previous data on the inflow of portfolio investments also provide the physical demand for the single European currency. 2) Technical Analysis: Probable upward trend in more detail below. 3) Mooving average: 200 and 300 day moving averages crossed again, showing the change in trend in the short term. We maintain our buy from: 1.0861 1.0932 1.1027 Also, we are opening a new deal: #Buy EURUSD: - Price: 1.1100 - 1.1110 #TP: 1.14 #SL: Not provided. - Volume: 0.10% of the deposit. ••Technical analysis : Well visible on the daily timeframe, the pair is in the uplink. In a more global sense in the pair has been observed for quite a long consolidation. Couple holding steady above the important support level of 1.08. The primary objective for the pair is the mark of 1.14, after its breakthrough is expected in the second goal of 1.20. The CFTC has not yet had time to get data on the ECB: - the amount of net Short Euro looks small. •• iWM levels: (Weekly) Pivot price: 1.1061 If the price is above the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1300, 1.1465, 1.1695 If the price is below the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0905, 1.0663 •• iWM levels: (Monthly) Pivot price: 1.1023 If the price is higher in the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1227, 1.1582, 1.1789. If the price is lower than on the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0666, 1.0459, 1.0110. wermelgion@gmail.com
Long
by Wermelgion
EURUSD: Update and Key Hidden LevelsIn this chart I describe the current estimated trayectory for the Euro. I expect a brieft retracement, if we were to move above the last daily high, crossing the recent FOMC minutes release Key Level, and go to test the low volume resistance levels above, and eventually test the top FOMC key levels if said resistances fail to hold. It's possible to go long above the last daily high using a tight stop, and closing and flipping short when we approach the overhead resistance. I outlined two potential paths EURUSD might follow, and in both cases, I'm expecting monthly and quarterly downtrend continuation as we break all FOMC support levels on the way down. Check related ideas for my previous charts covering this pair, and also check the EURCHF posted by my friend Tom Killick, might be a nice pair to add to your portfolio to profit from this expected Euro meltdown that I forecast here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
24
Long on EUR/GBP BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for - We are clearly up trending - We are putting in higher highs and lower highs - We are getting nice swing highs and structure - Previous 4 hour candle was a bullish hammer (Bullish candle) - We have nice long wicks to the downside which signals more buying power - We are above key level of 0.75000 Daily - We put in a huge Bullish engulfing last week Friday - Today we are forming a bullish hammer of the Daily candle - We are riding the trend which is bullish - Remember the trend is you're friend weekly - We have had 8 bullish weeks in a row the momentum is to the upside which is clear to see - on the weekly we cleared major level off 0.75000
Long
by ARFXC
Crash Warning For Euro STOXX 50 Equity IndexRunning Alpha Capital Markets Intelligence re-iterates its warning posted on Jan 11th, 2016 to Global Investors of an Imminent and Persistent Crash, specifically for Euro STOXX 50 Equity Index ( Symbol FEZ ) . The benchmark European index, the Euro STOXX 50 should easily retest the crash lows of 2009; USA equity markets do not have a crash signal, but will experience heavy volatility in near term before turning euphoric with a powerful V-bottom recovery from 2016 into 2017. Euro STOXX 50 will see unprecedented volatility -- off the charts and likely accompanied by rapidly deteriorating fundamental and geo-political events. In summary, * Long USA Equity Leadership and Short Euro STOXX 50 Index is an opportunistic strategy for the environment upon us now through 2017. * It is likely that no matter how significant short term volatility gets in USA over the very near term, the persistent panic selling to hit Euro STOXX 50 Index across all time horizons from the near term to the long term will be so extreme that money flows will likely create an episode of strong relative outperformance in USA markets all the way into 2017.
AMEX:FEZShort
by SentimentNews
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUD - BOREDOME BEFORE THE STORM?KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD - BOREDOM BEFORE THE STORM ? (1 day, log scale) As said previously, the short-lived upward thrust for EUR into $1.17 has not been able to materialize. EURUSD is on the daily chart stil gyrating. Granted, 1.04/1.05 has again provided support, and so did the 1.105 provode resistance / did the 1.08 level provide support again. RSI divergences taking place on both sides... It's simply in a sideways market. Still. In all: I'd expect this thing to visit 1.08 again, 1.10 again, and anticipate a short visit to the upside (1.11 level, perhaps even overshoot to 1.12?) but this is only to complete the retracement from the previous fierce leg down, which started Oct. 15th at the 1.15 high, and ended on "D-Day" ;-) at 1.05. Note the Fib resistancelevel lining up with previous resistance. On the far bigger MONTHLY picture (see other chart) things look south (much) further. But let's first end this shorter leg up.
by Consigliere_Constantino
STUMBLING THE EUR/USD LEGS - long term, by the monthLet's look at the really big picture again on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale). Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware. Usage: - protecting your savings (by going into USD) - determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?) - as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about. Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for,, the current frenzy in EURUSD is NOT changing that at all. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside should be taken around 1.12 / 1.19 (if it ever gets that far). I am convinced the latter level won't be breached after this Fed day, setting us up for the next long term leg down towards parity. By then.... a positive RSI divergence might be giving a screaming buy - but we're far from that. FYI: over the months I have been pulling my EUR assets into USD assets. Long term, I mean - not even relating to trading. Would be great to see 0.80 some day in 2019 :o) This is not going to end well in the long run for EUR...
Short
by Consigliere_Constantino