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EURPLN

EURPLN - a surprising interest rate cutA very surprising cut of interest rates at today's one-day MPC meeting, without a press conference, may have its impact on the future of the Polish zloty. In recent days, the EURPLN exchange rate has come close to potential support located at the previous highs in the area of 4.39-4.41. Additionally, a simple correction labeled as "abc" could appear on the chart. If the reduction of the reference rate from 0.5 to 0.1 percent along with a rather interesting technical arrangement at the same time could affect the market, then the EURPLN exchange rate could move at least to the line drawn along the recent tops. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Daniel_Kostecki
The Polish zloty surged against the euro yesterdayThe Polish zloty surged against the euro yesterday as European economies start to reopen once again. Bears are looking to reel in the pair lower to its support area by the first half of June. The zloty is currently trading at its highest level since March against the euro this Wednesday. The zloty has regained about half of its losses against the euro. With most economies in the region starting to gradually reopen, the currencies are also recovering. But looking at the performance of the Polish zloty earlier this month, it’s evident that it had a rough time trying to redeem itself against the single currency. Luckily, bears were able to gather momentum to eventually force the pair lower. It appears that the recent decision of the Hungarian central bank helped boosted the Polish zloty, giving it strength to rally against the bloc’s euro. It was reported that the National Bank of Hungary left its interest rates unmoved, supporting the forint and zloty in sessions.
Short
by Financebroker
The “unnecessary” rate cut from the Polish central bankThe broad weakness of the euro in the foreign exchange market today was seemingly brushed off by bullish investors. The news about the Polish zloty and the “unnecessary” rate cut from the Polish central bank has weakened the Polish zloty, preventing bearish investors from regaining their footing. The euro to Polish zloty trading pair will remain widely bullish thanks to the negativity regarding the zloty. According to a local report, an expert said that the previous rate cuts from the Polish central bank contributed to the strain felt by the zloty, which is now greatly undervalued against the Single currency. Apparently, the central bank has already slashed its official interest rates twice this year thanks to the pandemic. As of writing, the interest rates of Poland currently stand at 0.50%. And later today, the central bank is scheduled to unveil its interest rates decision which is widely expected to be left unmoved this May.
Long
by Financebroker
EUR/PLN will continue its rally towards a major uptrend resistanThe pair will continue its rally towards a major uptrend resistance line. Poland's unemployment rate grew for the third consecutive month to 5.5%. Though its part of the country’s unemployment cycle, the increase in M3 Money Supply is threatening to weaken the Polish zloty. M3 includes coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are convertible to cash, and short-term and long-term bank deposits. The increase in M3 for the month of March 2020 is 9.3%, higher than its previous record of 8.3%. It is also higher than the 8.8% increase forecasted by analysts. This will be catastrophic for its already high inflation rate at 4.4%. Meanwhile, the Eurozone recorded a slump in M3 at 5.0% from 5.6% in February, also lower from 5.5% expectations. The control in money supply will be good for its inflation data and for its economy. The weak economy will also weaken the political stance of Poland in the European Union.
Long
by Financebroker
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
Long
by ridethepig
3
EUR/PLN will continue to move lower in the following days toward𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜. 𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥. The pair will continue to move lower in the following days toward its previous low. As the United Kingdom is about to depart from the European Union on January 31, a possibility of a new country leaving the bloc is increasing. A resolution calling for Poland to respect the rule of law was passed with 446 votes to 178 and 41 abstentions, warning the former communist party of triggering Article 7 (1) of the EU Constitution. The Polish government on the other hand, warned that increasing pressure from the EU and its meddling in the country’s affairs might result to Poland eventually leaving the bloc. Despite this, Brussels is trying to hold everyone after it backs Poland against Russian accusation that the country started the World War II. This was amid the warming relationship between Russia and the European Union, specifically with the EU de facto leaders French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
by Financebroker
EUR/PLN Near Major Support - Breach or Bounce both TradableThe Euro and Polish zloty (PLN) is testing a major support area on the daily chart, in place since June of 2018 The support area is a large one, between 4.26 and 4.237. The price has been consolidating around 4.26 since Dec. 17. The high of the consolidation is 4.2755 and the low is 4.2528 (small pink rectangle). The breakout direction for that consolidation could indicate the direction the pair is likely to move over the coming months. A break lower from the two-week consolidation (small pink rectangle) means the price is still in the support area, but could keep falling to test the 4.23 region. A continued drop below the support area indicates a further decline to the next major support area between 4.16 and 4.13. A short trade has the added benefit of a positive roll. The Eurozone has 0% interest rates, while Poland has an interest rate of 1.5%. If the two-week consolidation breaks to the upside, it could be inferred that the large support area has held and the price will continue oscillating in a large range. Range resistance is 4.40 to 4.42. If the EUR/PLN rises, that is the target over the next several months.
by CoryMitchell-CMT