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EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing. ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022. On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend. Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
🧠Short-Term EURUSD Sentiment🔥 According to the latest currency news headlines, short-term sentiment towards the Euro appears slightly downbeat against the US Dollar. While both economies face inflationary headwinds, recent data surprises have painted a relatively weaker picture for the Eurozone bloc. German industrial orders came in lower than forecast in the latest monthly report, underscoring the challenges manufacturers continue to face from high energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, French GDP growth slowed more than anticipated in Q3, raising concerns that the second largest Eurozone economy may be slowing. Comments from ECB officials at regional central bank conferences this week reiterated the bank's commitment to further tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. However, they maintained a cautious stance, stressing that future rate decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data. This leaves the policy path somewhat uncertain compared to the more hawkish Fed. In contrast, US jobless claims came in above expectations last week, pointing to underlying resilience in the labor market. This boosted views that the Federal Reserve remains on track to deliver another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at its November meeting. Fed speakers struck a firm tone that inflation must be cooled through forceful rate actions. Looking at Eurusd technicals, downside momentum has held above 1.0300 for now. However, near-term rallies continue facing resistance below 1.0500 on cautious short-term sentiment. The outlook could brighten if upcoming Eurozone data surprises higher or there are signs inflation is moderating more quickly than expected. But for now, traders appear to favor positioning for dollar strength on a short-term basis. Technical key aspects of the short term trend and best entry/exit strategy based on the analysis provided in the TradingView charts: - The short term trend of EURUSD across the timeframes analyzed (weekly to 4H) remains bearish. Price action has been declining within descending resistance lines and channels. - Best entry for short trades was suggested to be after a bounce from resistance levels or pullbacks from oversold/oversold levels on indicators like the BB bands. This reduces risk of entering at highs. - Given volatility in currency pairs, optimal stop loss placement would be above recent swing highs or structural resistance levels, around 20-30 pips above entry to limit downside risk. - Initial profit targets were identified as lower support levels, around 50-100 pips below entry. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. - Additional extended profit targets aligned with longer term analysis include monthly or weekly demand zones and support levels offered by structural patterns like descending channels over 100-200 pips lower. - Traders are advised to exit parts of their position at initial targets and move stops to breakeven on the rest, as well as trail stops closer as the trade moves in their favor, to lock in profits and limit risks of unexpected reversals.
Short
by artotrading
Euro analysis in the short term EURUSD The signal secret was issued in Euro The market maker with Hunt announced this huge liquidity to other financial institutions under the pretext of fundamental news to wait for a new ceiling in the time of 15 minutes and then fall to the floor of this time. In my opinion, the unspent QM on the left is the main target to start this downtrend. Not financial advice. This 52 Hz whale can make mistakes, but the reward of this trade is high and attractive.
Short
by fiftytwohertzwhale
2
Euro falls to lowest level all year while dollar risesI wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the currency market, specifically the significant weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar. As of today, the Euro has fallen to its weakest level this year, while the Dollar continues to strengthen without any signs of easing. The current situation raises concerns and prompts us to carefully evaluate our trading strategies. The Euro's decline may present an opportunity for those considering a short position on the currency. However, I would like to emphasize the importance of approaching this situation with caution and thorough analysis. Considering the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, it is crucial to assess the potential risks involved in shorting the Euro. While the Dollar's gains have been consistent, it is essential to remember that market dynamics can change rapidly. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct comprehensive research and seek expert advice. In light of the above, I encourage you to closely monitor the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and keep a vigilant eye on any significant market developments. It is always wise to stay informed and adapt our strategies accordingly. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you and provide guidance throughout your trading journey.
Short
by bryandowningqln
Upcoming Short : EUR/USD Strategy with Daily Confirmation I am an indices trader, but this time, I believe that EUR/USD is exhibiting significant potential for a downward movement. To confirm this, I'm looking for a daily candle to close below the orange line on the chart. Once that daily close occurs, I plan to take an aggressive short position. Additionally, if there is any retracement back to the fair value gap, which has currently will act IFVG, I will consider it as an opportunity. Several factors support my bearish outlook, including the alignment of the DXY (Dollar Index) and SMT with the EUR/USD pair on the daily timeframe. Furthermore, there seems to be the formation of a bearish breaker pattern on the daily chart. Therefore, I am eager to capitalize on this trade in the upcoming days, but I require the confirmation of a daily candle close to give me the green light. Once that confirmation occurs, I anticipate a move exceeding 200 pips in the downward direction.
Short
by Crypto_Byte9
ECB's Next Move in Inflation Fight: Managing Excess Liquidity Frankfurt, Reuters - In the ongoing fight against inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are gearing up for a significant shift in strategy. They are set to deliberate on ways to address the vast pool of excess liquidity inundating banks, with the possibility of raising reserve requirements emerging as the initial tactic. This pivotal discussion is expected to kick off at the ECB's forthcoming meeting in Athens on October 26 or during an autumn retreat for policymakers. Despite the ECB having already raised interest rates ten times to record levels, inflation still stubbornly hovers above its 2% target. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged until December, policymakers are pivoting their attention to the massive infusion of funds into the banking system through a decade of bond purchases. This surplus liquidity undermines the effectiveness of rate hikes, reduces competition for deposits, and leads to substantial interest payments and potential losses for some central banks. Sources indicate that the debate on curbing excess liquidity will focus on three key areas: revising the mandatory reserves banks maintain at the ECB, unwinding the bond-buying programs, and establishing a new framework for influencing short-term interest rates. While an ECB spokesperson declined to comment, insiders suggest that several policymakers favor increasing the reserve requirement from the current 1% of customer deposits to potentially as high as 3% or 4%. This move would serve the dual purpose of absorbing excess cash from the banking system and reducing interest payouts by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks. However, some policymakers advocate bundling the decision on reserves with discussions regarding the ECB's asset purchase schemes and interest-rate framework, which could lengthen the decision-making process. Shrinking the 4.8 trillion euro debt pile acquired by the ECB since 2015, mainly to counter deflation risks, poses even greater challenges and market sensitivities. While phasing out the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by not replacing maturing bonds is an option, policymakers are cautious about upsetting financial markets, particularly Italian government bond investors. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that bond-buying schemes were not on the table at the latest policy meeting, emphasizing the importance of PEPP for policy transmission. While there have been suggestions to sell bonds acquired under the older Asset Purchase Programme, some argue this would result in even larger losses for the ECB. Sources suggest that a decision on bond-buying schemes might not materialize this year and, if it does, may not take effect until early 2024 or later in the spring. Furthermore, debates surrounding the policy framework—whether the ECB should continue to set an interbank rate floor or revert to a corridor system—are expected to extend into 2024, as the volume of excess reserves in banks keeps the ECB effectively locked into a floor system. A study presented at the ECB's summer symposium in Sintra suggested that, now that monetary stimulus is no longer necessary, the ECB could reduce bank liquidity to a range of 521 billion euros to 1.4 trillion euros while still meeting banks' reserve needs." This revised text provides a more engaging and concise summary of the original content, making it more attractive to readers.
by Ayame_Hana
53
EURUSD Long Term Buy Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUAD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexPlanet20
EURUSD Pair Breaks Out of the Ascending Channel Weekly Analysis of #EURUSD, Monday, September 10, 2023 In the weekly chart of #EURUSD, the price has broken out of the #ascending channel and crossed below the 50-day moving average. Consequently, the market structure appears bearish or corrective. In the current week's trading, if selling pressure continues and the $1.07 rate is breached, the #EURUSD pair could initially move towards the minor support at $1.0635. If the #downward momentum persists, the next target for #EURUSD will be the support range of $1.0530 to $1.0481. So based on this analysis I suggests a bearish or corrective outlook for EURUSD.
Short
by POUSHEINI
2
EUR/USD Prediction on 25.08.2023 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country is one of the primary indicators of its economic health. It reflects the total market value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a country's borders. When the GDP of a dominant economy within a currency zone, like Germany in the Eurozone, shows a bearish trend, it can have profound effects on the currency, in this case, the Euro (EUR). Dominance of the German Economy in the Eurozone: Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, contributing a significant portion of the zone's aggregate GDP. As a result, its economic performance often serves as a barometer for the entire Eurozone's health. A bearish GDP trend in Germany can, therefore, suggest a potential slowdown across the entire Euro area. Investor Confidence: A declining GDP often points to broader economic issues. This can include declining industrial production, reduced consumer spending, or challenges in the services sector, among other factors. As a consequence, investors might perceive the Eurozone as a riskier investment, leading to capital outflows and a reduced demand for the Euro, thus driving its value down. Monetary Policy Implications: The European Central Bank (ECB) closely monitors economic indicators like the GDP to shape its monetary policy. A bearish GDP trend in Germany might prompt the ECB to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate growth, such as cutting interest rates or implementing quantitative easing. These measures often lead to a depreciation of the currency as lower interest rates tend to reduce foreign capital inflows seeking higher returns. Trade Balance Implications: Germany is a significant exporter, and a bearish GDP might reflect challenges in its export sector, potentially due to global economic conditions or decreased competitiveness. If German exports decline, it could result in a deteriorating trade balance for the Eurozone, further placing downward pressure on the Euro. Psychological Factor: The financial markets are influenced not only by tangible factors but also by traders' and investors' perceptions. A slowdown in Germany, given its economic stature, can create a bearish sentiment around the Euro, leading market participants to short the currency or look for safer investment alternatives. Potential Ripple Effects: While Germany is the primary focus here, a downturn in its economy could impact its trading partners within the Eurozone. As trade and investment links are dense among Eurozone countries, a slowdown in one major economy can have spill-over effects, creating a feedback loop that amplifies the bearish sentiment.
Short
by mazayafx
EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe EURUSD has exhibited a bearish trend over an extended period. As we approach high-impact calendar events today that hold the potential to sway the euro's performance, an uptick in market volatility is anticipated. I am actively identifying potential entry levels, and my attention is fixed on a critical resistance threshold. If today's events result in negative data, there's a likelihood of witnessing an upward liquidity sweep towards the resistance level outlined in the video, offering a potential selling opportunity. It's important to note that all details are explained in the video; however, this content should not be misconstrued as financial advice.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
1
EUR/USD re-targets 1.1000 post US-CPIShort(Mid Term : BULLISH EUR/USD looks to regain some fresh buying interest following CPI-led weakness in the US dollar on Wednesday. The movement of the euro's value is expected to closely mirror the behaviour of the US Dollar and will likely be impacted by any differences in approach between the Fed and the ECB with regard to their plans for adjusting interest rates. Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continues to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation (or not) of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, the pair is gaining 0.28% at 1.0989 and faces the next up-barriers at 1.1095 (2023 high April 26) and 1.1100 (round level) en route to 1.1184 (weekly high March 21 2022). On the other hand, the next contention level aligns at 1.0941 (monthly low May 2), followed by 1.0909 (weekly low April 17) and finally 1.0831 (monthly low April 10). The EUR/USD pair remained under selling pressure throughout the first half of the day, meeting sellers ahead of the 1.1000 figure and hovering at the lower end of its weekly range at 1.0950 ahead of first-tier United States (US) data. The US Dollar retained its latest strength amid a risk-averse environment and, despite Treasury yields, lost momentum. Eurozone (EU) news passed unnoticed. Germany published the final version of its April inflation figures, confirming the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 7.2%. The core reading also matched the preliminary estimate at 7.6%. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair daily chart shows that further gains remain unclear. The pair remains below a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer ones maintain their mildly bullish slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength within neutral levels. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is quite similar. The pair recovered from around a mildly bullish 200 SMA, but a bearish 20 SMA crossing below a directionless 100 SMA provide near-term resistance around 1.1000. Finally, technical indicators turned north but remain within positive levels. If the pair is able to regain and sustain gains above 1.1000, bulls may retake control of the pair. Support levels: 1.0940 1.0890 1.0830 Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1050 1.1100
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
11