XAU/USD : Gold at a Turning Point – Rejection or Breakout Ahead?By analyzing the TVC:GOLD (XAUUSD) chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that price climbed to $3330 today, entering a key supply zone, which triggered a pullback down to $3310. Gold is now trading around $3317, and I’m watching several potential setups closely.
Scenario 1:
If gold stabilizes below $3320, we could see a bearish move toward $3296.
Scenario 2:
If price breaks above the $3333 resistance, it may enter the next supply zone between $3341 and $3351, which could trigger a strong rejection—potentially offering a 100 to 400 pip move.
Now let’s break down the key levels to watch:
Supply zones: $3320, $3333, $3342, $3358
Demand zones: $3303, $3296, $3289, $3278
Monitor how price reacts to each of these zones — they may provide excellent opportunities.
Eurusd-3
EURO - Price will continue to grow inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently, price entered to rising channel, where it soon reached the support level, which coincided with the support area.
After this movement, the price broke this level, but soon turned around and corrected the support line of the channel.
Next, EUR went back to $1.1365 level and broke it again, after which it made a retest and continued to move up.
In a short time, EUR rose to the resistance line of the channel, made a correction, and then grew to $1.1700 support level.
Price broke this level too and reached the resistance line of the channel, but not long ago corrected.
At the moment, I expect that the Euro can correct to the support line of the channel and then rise to $1.1900
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HelenP. I Euro will drop more, breaking the support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After analyzing the current structure of the EURUSD chart, I noticed a strong break of the ascending trend line, which had been respected for a long period. The price has now returned to test the broken trend line from below, aligning with the resistance zone between 1.1665 and 1.1700 points. This area used to serve as solid support, but after the breakout, it turned into resistance. The retest from below could become the final confirmation before the pair continues its downward movement. Right now, EUR is trading just inside this resistance zone. There is a small chance the price might move slightly higher to touch the upper boundary of the zone, but overall, the pressure looks bearish. I expect that after a minor bounce, EUR will decline again, breaking below the local support at 1.1665. Once that happens, a larger impulse down could be triggered, targeting even 1.1525 points, which is my main goal for this setup. This bearish scenario is supported by the failed attempts to recover above the trend line and the fact that previous support has already flipped to resistance. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment.❤️
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EURUSD h4 update ⚠️ Current Outlook: Reversal Zone Hit
• Price tapped into the strong RESISTANCE zone (~1.1800), failing to break higher.
• Market structure BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish intent.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap) likely to act as a short-term liquidity trap.
📍 Disrupted Bearish Flow:
1. Price rejects resistance aggressively ✅
2. Pullback into FVG may trigger a liquidity hunt 🧲
3. Fake bounce → Smart Money re-entry expected 👀
4. Target levels:
• 🥅 TARGET: 1.1550 zone (first major support)
• 🎯 LONG TARGET: 1.1200 zone (high probability zone for HTF buyers)
🔁 Bear Trap Setup Possibility:
• After hitting the LONG TARGET, price could reverse sharply.
• Watch for accumulation signs and deviation below key levels.
⸻
🔥 Key Zones to Watch:
• 🔳 Resistance: 1.1790–1.1820
• 🟦 FVG Retest Zone: 1.1630–1.1660
• 📉 Target Zone: 1.1500–1.1550
• 🚨 Long-Term Demand Zone: 1.1180–1.123
Soybeans Loading a Bounce? Demand Zone + COT1. Price Action & Technical Structure
Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969).
Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal.
The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move.
Technical Targets:
• First upside target: 1039–1049
Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown.
2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025)
• Non-Commercials:
+11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity.
• Commercials:
+7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias.
• Open Interest:
+8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing.
Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level.
3. Seasonality – MarketBulls
Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans:
• –44.82 (20Y avg)
• –36.86 (15Y avg)
• –34.74 (10Y avg)
However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior.
This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness.
Operational Takeaway
Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound:
✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand
✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch
✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest
✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted
EURUSD - Bears Are on the MoveHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈EURUSD has been overall bearish trading within the falling wedge pattern marked in red. And it is currently retesting the upper bound of the wedge.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red trendline and structure.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
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EURUSD is Approaching an Important Support!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.16400 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.16400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPJPY - Multi Year SHORTS Coming! (Over 10,000pips)Here we have the 2 month chart of GBPJPY. We can see that we're in a massive ending diagonal made up of 5 waves.
We are currently on wave 4 and have almost completed. At the moment we are working within the parameters of a channel however we must be aware that we may exceed the channel. The channel is just there for us to use as a guideline.
In 2007, we have a really nice ending diagonal (expanding) before we made that ridiculous +13k pip drop.
See below for the 2D GBPJPY chart from 2007:
We can see that the lower timeframe diagonal broke down beautifully.
We are anticipating something similar this time round!
See below for the 2D GBPJPY chart of the current diagonal:
We've got an almost identical price action as 2007. We just got to wait a little and watch for the break of the red trendline and enter and hold.
See below for the 2week chart of GBPJPY:
Trade Idea:
- Watch for a break of the ending diagonal
- Alternatively, you can wait for a pullback after the ending diagonal breaks
- stop loss above highs once entry trendline breaks
- Swing Target: 100 (10,000pips)
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
EUR/USD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the EUR/USD pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 1.133.
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EUR_USD STRONG UPTREND|LONG|
✅EUR_USD is trading in an uptrend
With the pair set to retest
The rising support line
From where I think the growth will continue
LONG🚀
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EURUSD Energy buildup supported at 1.1590The EURUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Level: 1.1640
This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.1640 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at:
1.1830 – Near-term resistance
1.1900 – Minor swing high
1.1940 – Longer-term bullish objective
On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.1640 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
1.1590 – Initial support
1.1530 – Key downside target
Conclusion:
As long as 1.1640 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is trading near our sell entry level at 1.1692, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.1610, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 1.1765, a swing high resistance.
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EURUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.169.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.177 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURUSD: Long Trading Opportunity
EURUSD
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.1685
Stop Loss - 1.1664
Take Profit - 1.1728
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURUSD – Breakout Confirms Bullish ContinuationEURUSD has just successfully broken out of a corrective triangle pattern, confirming that the bullish structure remains intact. The price reacted well to the support zone around 1.1660 and bounced back, opening the way toward the 1.1820 target in the short term.
On the news front, the euro is gaining support as the Eurozone’s July CPI held steady at 2.6%, indicating that inflationary pressures have not fully eased—this may prompt the ECB to maintain a tighter policy for longer. Meanwhile, the USD is under mild correction pressure after U.S. CPI came in higher than expected but not strong enough to reignite rate hike expectations from the Fed.
Given the current technical setup and news backdrop, EURUSD could continue rising in the coming sessions as long as it holds above the trendline support.
EUR-USD Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is
Making a local bearish correction
But we are bullish biased and
After the retest of the horizontal
Support of 1.1640
We will be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
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EURUSD H4 RISES 🔄 Disrupted EUR/USD Analysis (4H)
📉 Current Structure:
Price is hovering around 1.17298, showing hesitation at the resistance of a potential bearish flag.
While the chart labels this zone as “bullish,” there are signs of market indecision, possibly a fakeout trap.
⚠️ Key Disruptions:
1. Bullish Trap Risk:
The price formed a short-term M-pattern (double top inside the orange circle), indicating bearish exhaustion rather than continuation.
The expected breakout to the upside may fail if bulls don’t sustain volume.
2. Support Area Weakness:
The support zone around 1.17000 has been tested multiple times. If it breaks, it could turn into a strong resistance, flipping the sentiment.
3. Macro Influence:
Upcoming EUR and USD economic events (noted by icons) could cause high volatility and break structure unexpectedly.
A strong USD report could reverse bullish momentum, sending EUR/USD toward 1.16500 or lower.
4. Bearish Continuation Scenario:
If the market breaks down from the current consolidation, expect targets at:
EURJPY Hits Supply | Pullback Is ComingPrice has entered the daily supply zone (red area) between 170.80 and 171.80, showing immediate rejection with a long upper wick — a signal of potential short-term bearish reaction.
The RSI is turning lower, indicating loss of momentum, although it hasn’t reached extreme levels yet.
The current map suggests a technical pullback toward the 169.40–168.50 zone (FVG + dynamic support) before any potential bullish continuation toward 174+.
The overall structure remains bullish, but a correction looks likely due to technical exhaustion and retail positioning.
📊 2. COT Report (JPY Futures – as of 2025-07-01)
Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced long positions on the JPY by -7,779 contracts, and also slightly trimmed shorts → clear sign of position reduction.
Net positioning remains strongly negative (JPY weakness), but it's starting to recover slightly.
Commercials added both longs (+2,830) and shorts (+5,977), indicating indecision but growing interest.
Open interest slightly decreased (–516), though it remains elevated.
👉 The market has not yet reversed, but the JPY downtrend may be approaching exhaustion.
🧠 3. Retail Sentiment
86% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY — a strong contrarian bullish signal.
Average retail short entry: 166.27, while current price is 171.55 → retail traders are trapped and under pressure.
A short squeeze is likely underway or already completed, increasing the risk of a technical correction after distribution.
📅 4. Seasonality
July is historically weak for EUR/JPY:
20Y: -0.35
15Y: -0.49
10Y: -0.18
August tends to be even worse from a seasonal perspective.
This supports the idea of a potential pullback in the coming days or weeks.
Trading Conclusion
Current Bias: Short-term Neutral–Bearish, Medium-term Bullish.
✳️ Potential pullback from 172.30 toward 169.40–168.50
🎯 If price holds and builds clean bullish structure, expect continuation toward 174.00–175.00
❌ Invalidation on daily close below 167.80
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May.
The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick.
Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels.
A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone.
A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken.
📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index)
Euro FX
Net long: +15,334
Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence.
Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish.
USD Index
Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net.
Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts.
→ USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD.
🧠 Retail Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal.
However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term.
📅 Seasonality
July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages.
However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025).
Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term.
🧩 Conclusion
Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal.
Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels.
USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
GBPJPY - Multi-Year Short Update! In our last setup for GBPJPY, we identified a massive diagonal pattern, with price completing wave 4 and preparing for a multi-year drop into wave 5.
Since then, price has played out exactly as forecasted — we've seen a clean impulse lower for wave 1, followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, which looks to have now completed.
This sets the stage for the next major leg — wave 3 of 5 — which historically carries the most power and momentum.
📉 See monthly chart here:
📊 GBP/JPY Wave‑3 Trade Idea
Background:
We’ve completed wave 1 down and wave 2 up (ABC correction).
GBPJPY is now positioned to start a powerful wave 3 down — the most impulsive leg in an Elliott sequence.
🔍 Current Price Action:
Price is rejecting major resistance (previous wave A high + shaded zone)
Structure shows a completed 5-wave move up within C, suggesting exhaustion.
A clean ascending trendline (red) has formed under wave v — a break here signals the first confirmation.
Option 1 – Aggressive Entry:
- Trigger: Break and close below the red trendline (~198.00–197.80 zone) on the daily.
- Entry: On candle close below trendline
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Option 2 – Conservative Entry (preferred):
- Trigger: Trendline break + correction
- Entry: On bearish confirmation and then a correction to indicate further downside
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Take Profit Levels:
- TP1: 192
- TP2: 180
- TP3: 175
- Final Target: Trail for extended move toward wave (3) lows (could be 10,000+ pips over long term)
🔐 Invalidation:
Daily close back above 200.00 or impulsive rally beyond the pink resistance zone invalidates the short bias in the short term.
✅ Summary:
This is a high-conviction, structure-backed setup with:
- Wave count + Fib confluence
- Bearish structure at key resistance
- Confirmation-based trigger (trendline break + retest)
- Excellent long-term risk-to-reward profile
📂 Previous GBPJPY Setups (Track Record):
📌 Free Setup (Big Picture Outlook) – Multi-Year Shorts Incoming (Wave 4 Completion)
✅ Swing 1 – 1,200 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Long)
✅ Swing 2 – 1,000 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 3 – 1,100 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 4 – 700 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)