EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded:
As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally.
More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally.
Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test).
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Eurusd-3
EurUsd- Buy under 1.05
In last week's analysis, I mentioned that EUR/USD could reverse to the upside, with the 1.0330 zone likely marking a short-term bottom.
As anticipated, the pair has climbed back above the 1.05 support level, indicating a false breakout. I still expect this correction to extend further, with the pair potentially reaching the 1.0670 resistance level.
In conclusion, any dips below 1.05 should be seen as buying opportunities, targeting the aforementioned resistance level.
EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Key Economic EventsThe EUR/USD pair began the week with notable selling pressure, trading near the 1.0500 level at the time of writing. The Asian session opened with a bearish gap that remains uncovered, with the pair declining by nearly 75 pips so far. Market participants are closely watching upcoming events, including a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later today.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the pair’s downward momentum aligns with earlier forecasts, suggesting a potential move toward the next demand zone around 1.0100 in the coming sessions.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis
Recent COT reports reveal that retail traders have increased long positions in the pair, while non-commercial entities remain bearish. This divergence highlights contrasting market expectations. A strong ISM Manufacturing PMI reading could amplify the pair’s downward trajectory, further pressuring the euro.
As the market digests these developments, traders should remain cautious and adapt strategies based on upcoming economic data and central bank commentary.
✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
EURUSD Bullish ? Monthly FVG Reversal Setup to the UpsideBreaking down the EUR/USD setup:
Sell-Side Liquidity Raided:
Price has effectively taken out the sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels at 1.060 and 1.04482, creating the conditions for a reversal.
Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price has tapped into the monthly FVG and, more importantly, closed above it, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
Higher Timeframe Bias:
The monthly FVG holds strong as a bullish PD array. With price rejecting this range, there’s potential for a move toward the weekly buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 1.09387.
Obstacles to Watch:
Price is approaching two high-probability bearish FVGs on the weekly timeframe. These zones could cause re tracements back into the higher timeframe monthly FVG range.
Monitor these areas closely for signs of price respecting or disregarding these bearish zones.
Projection:
If price continues to disrespect the bearish FVGs and maintains bullish displacement, a continuation toward 1.09387 is likely.
Keep in mind retracements into the FVG range as healthy pullbacks during the move higher.
Conclusion:
This setup highlights a high-probability reversal scenario based on ICT concepts. However, as always, patience and confirmation are key—watch how price reacts to the bearish FVGs along the way.
Disclaimer: Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and trade responsibly.
EURUSD: Europe’s smooth inflation and U.S. NFPThe most important macro indicator posted during the previous week was the PCE indicator for October, a Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Posted data show that the PCE Price Index increased by 0,2% on a monthly basis, while core PCE was up by 0,3%. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Personal Income was increased by 0,6% for the month, while Personal Spending was higher by 0,4% in October. The PCE Price Index reached 2,3% on a yearly basis.
The CB Consumer Confidence in the US in November was increased to the level of 111,7, above market expectations of 110. On the opposite side, New Home Sales decreased by -17,3% in October for the month, highly above market forecast of -3,5%. Durable Goods Orders were higher by 0,2% on a monthly basis in October, modestly below market forecast of 0,3%. US GDP Growth rate, second estimate for Q3 was corrected a bit to the level of 2.8% from 3% posted previously, but was generally in line with the market expectations.
The German Ifo business Climate dropped in November to the level of 85,7, although market expectations were on a side of 86,3. The Ifo Current Conditions also slowed down in November to the level of 84,3 from 85,7 posted for the previous month. The GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to the level of -23,3 in December in Germany, again above market forecast of -18,7. The inflation rate in Germany preliminary for November is 2,2% y/y, while inflation on the monthly basis was standing at -0,2%. Retail sales in Germany dropped by -1,% in October for the month, bringing total retail sales to 1% increase on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany was flat in November at 6,1%. Preliminary inflation estimate in the Euro Zone in November is 2,3%, which is a bit higher from 2% posted for the previous month.
Although posted figures are showing a bit of increase of inflation in the Euro Zone in November, still, it did not impact the eurusd market to start a short term reversal during the week. The currency pair started the week at 1,0425 and was mostly oriented toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 1,059. The RSI also started a short reversal toward the upside, reaching the level of 40. This level still does not represent a clear sign that the market is ready to start a road toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days made a clear cross, a so-called dead cross, with its MA200 counterpart, which is an indication of a potential for a trend change in the coming period.
The currency pair currently stands at sort of a cross-road. On one side, the level of 1,04 represents the last defense for a road toward parity. On the opposite side, eurusd showed that there is currently no strength for a clear move toward the upside. The highest weekly level of 1,059 does not represent any significant level for the currency pair, which might be an indication of a potential another move toward the 1,04 support line. The dead cross should also be taken into consideration, but for a longer time-scale. So, for the week ahead, there is higher probability for testing 1,04 support, while the move toward the upside might be an option only after NFP data, which are scheduled to be released in a week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November in Germany and Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the EuroZone, HCOB Services PMI final for November in Germany and the Euro Zone, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in October, Industrial Production in Germany in October,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in November, ISM Services PMI in November, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non Farm Payrolls in November, Unemployment rate in November, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for December.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Momentum?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has made a bearish breakout at our sell entry at 1.0530, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.0435, an overlap support.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0604, which is an overlap resistance.
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Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.0662
1st Support: 1.0496
1st Resistance: 1.0776
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EURUSD 1/12/24As we enter the first week of December, our bias remains the same as last week—bearish. While the GBP/USD pair has shifted to a bullish bias, EUR/USD has yet to follow suit. As always, we track price based on our established bias.
From this chart, you can see several bearish targets in the form of liquidity lows. If we see a push higher, this may take price into the supply area above and toward the nearest liquidity high relative to the current price. At this stage, we will look for a clear sell setup to drive price back down toward the liquidity levels marked below.
If no pullback occurs and price moves lower, aligning with our bearish bias, we’ll look for liquidity highs to form and be taken out as we continue downward. Be aware of the demand zone sitting below the current price, as it may push the market back up if contacted.
For now, we remain bearish and focused on sell opportunities. Keep an eye on the daily bias, as it could shift if price holds higher within this range.
Trade safe and stick to your plan!
EURUSD My Opinion! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0414 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.0470
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data
The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% this week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment.
US Data Falls Short of Expectations
A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains.
Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support
The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results:
- **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence.
While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak.
Comparative Economic Outlook
The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics:
| Metric | US | Eurozone |
|-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------|
| **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% |
| **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% |
| **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% |
| **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% |
| **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 |
| **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 |
While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges.
Outlook for EUR/USD
Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth.
Conclusion
While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing.
Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
EUR_USD SUPPLY LEVEL AHEAD|SHORT|
✅EUR_USD will be retesting a supply level around 1.0616 soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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USDJPY - A Whole Lotta Pips in 2024!USDJPY has been one of our favourites to trade! We've managed to catch the start of the swing points for each wave since the beginning of 2024.
Our entry method remains the same. Break of Trendline. Simple yet very effective if used correctly.
Since our last setup, we've moved +600pips in our direction. We're currently holding it at breakeven and riding out the wave!
See below for our past setups.
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 (Public Post):
Trade 4 (Public Post):
Trades 3 and 4 have been public setups. Well done to those that were paying attention and caught it!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
USDJPY - A Whole Lotta Pips in 2024!USDJPY has been one of our favourites to trade! We've managed to catch the start of the swing points for each wave since the beginning of 2024.
Our entry method remains the same. Break of Trendline. Simple yet very effective if used correctly.
Since our last setup, we've moved +600pips in our direction. We're currently holding it at breakeven and riding out the wave!
See below for our past setups.
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 (Public Post):
Trade 4 (Public Post):
Trades 3 and 4 have been public setups. Well done to those that were paying attention and caught it!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
GBP/USD: Relief Rally or Just a Pause Before the Next Drop?GBP/USD: Relief Rally or Just a Pause Before the Next Drop?
GBP/USD has been locked in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action shows signs of a relief rally to the upside. Could this mean the bears are finally running out of steam?
Not so fast. While the bounce might be tempting for bulls, it’s essential to consider the bigger picture. The downside momentum isn’t entirely out of the equation just yet. Here’s why:
Trend Analysis
The long-term downtrend remains intact. Key resistance levels are looming, and the recent upward move might simply be a retracement within the broader bearish structure.
Market Cycles
Markets often move in cycles, and GBP/USD appears to still be in the middle of a downside cycle. Relief rallies like this are common before the next leg lower, catching overly eager buyers off guard.
Fundamental Backdrop
The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various factors, including UK economic data, US interest rate dynamics, and market sentiment. As of now, the fundamentals still favor the dollar, adding pressure to the pound.
Trade Idea
Short-Term Bulls: If you’re considering the upside, proceed with caution and manage your risk. Look for clear confirmation of strength above key resistance levels before committing to a bullish bias.
Long-Term Bears: Stay patient. This relief rally could offer an excellent opportunity to short the pair at higher levels, aligning with the overall downtrend.
HelenP. I Euro will decline to support level and then start growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price reached the trend line, and then turned around and started to decline. In a short time, EUR fell to the resistance zone, which coincided with the resistance level, and soon price broke this level. After this, the price some time traded below the 1.0900 resistance level, and later it tried to grow. But when the price entered to resistance zone and reached the trend line, the EUR turned around and made a strong impulse down, after which continued to decline next. Price in a short time fell to the support level, which coincided with the support zone and then some time traded near this level. Later, the Euro declined below this level, breaking it, but then it turned around and made a gap, after which rose back, breaking the 1.0515 support level one more time. At the moment, the EUR continues to move up and in my opinion, it will decline to the support level and then start to grow to the trend line. For this case, I set my goal at 1.0730 points, which coincided with this line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell EURUSD.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
The Psychology of Wealth
🔸The psychology of wealth centers on cultivating a mindset that aligns your thoughts, beliefs, and actions with abundance, financial success, and prosperity.
🔸The affirmations you’ve mentioned—such as "money comes easily," "I deserve success," and "I’m in control of my future"—are key components of a wealth-oriented mindset. This approach isn’t just about positive thinking; it’s about rewiring your brain, creating empowering habits, and developing the emotional resilience needed to achieve financial and personal success.
🔸Here’s a breakdown of how these affirmations and principles relate to the psychology of wealth:
1. "Money Comes Easily"
▪️Belief in Ease and Flow: This statement fosters a belief that financial opportunities are abundant and accessible. When you believe money can come easily, you’re more likely to notice opportunities, attract resources, and act on them confidently.
▪️Shift from Scarcity to Abundance: Many people operate with a scarcity mindset, feeling money is hard to earn. By affirming that money comes easily, you break free from this limiting belief and open yourself to creative solutions and ideas.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Identify opportunities in your field or new markets.
▪️Develop skills that make earning money simpler and more sustainable.
2. "I Deserve Success"
▪️Self-Worth and Wealth: Believing you deserve success ties your financial achievements to your sense of self-worth. If you subconsciously feel undeserving, you may sabotage your efforts or settle for less.
▪️Breaking Limiting Beliefs: Many people are conditioned by childhood experiences or societal expectations to believe success is reserved for others. Reaffirming that you deserve success challenges these limiting beliefs.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Reflect on past achievements and recognize your value.
▪️Engage in self-care and personal growth activities to reinforce your worthiness.
3. "There Is an Abundance of Money"
▪️Abundance Mentality: This statement helps shift from a scarcity mindset to an abundance mindset. Believing there’s enough wealth for everyone fosters collaboration, innovation, and generosity.
▪️Law of Attraction: When you focus on abundance, you’re more likely to act in ways that attract wealth and prosperity into your life.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Practice gratitude daily to focus on what you already have.
▪️Seek out stories or examples of abundance to reinforce this belief.
4. "Nothing Can Stop Me from Success"
▪️Resilience and Determination: This affirmation builds a mindset of resilience and perseverance. It reminds you that challenges are temporary and that you have the power to overcome obstacles.
▪️Reframing Failure: By adopting this belief, you view setbacks as opportunities to learn and grow, rather than insurmountable barriers.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Break big goals into manageable steps to maintain momentum.
▪️Develop a "growth mindset," where challenges are viewed as essential for improvement.
5. "I’m in Control of My Future"
▪️Empowerment and Responsibility: This belief emphasizes personal accountability and the ability to influence your financial destiny. It counters feelings of helplessness and external blame.
▪️Focus on What You Can Control: While you can’t control every external event, you can control your reactions, decisions, and efforts.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Set clear financial and personal goals.
▪️Continuously educate yourself about wealth-building strategies, such as investing, saving, and entrepreneurship.
Final Thoughts
The psychology of wealth is about more than financial gain—it’s about cultivating a mindset of abundance, gratitude, and empowerment. By believing that money comes easily, you deserve success, and you are in control of your future, you set the stage for proactive behaviors and sustained growth. Pair these beliefs with practical strategies, and you’ll find yourself on a path toward financial freedom and personal fulfillment.
EUR/USD: Facing Resistance - Breakout or Rebound?The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows that the price is trading just below the 34 and 89 EMAs, which is creating a clear resistance around the 1.05800 area. The Euro has been trying to break above this area, but has failed in recent sessions, indicating indecision in the market.
The price is currently showing a cautious approach, and a break above the 89 EMA would need further confirmation from strong volume to ensure that this is not just a false breakout. A failure to break above would likely see the price fall back below the EMAs and towards the lower support around 1.05000.
However, if EUR/USD succeeds in breaking and sustaining above the 1.05800 level, this could signal a new bullish trend, with the next target likely being the 1.06000 area and higher.
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data
The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% this week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment.
US Data Falls Short of Expectations
A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast.
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains.
Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support
The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results:
- **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence.
While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak.
Comparative Economic Outlook
The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics:
| Metric | US | Eurozone |
|-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------|
| **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% |
| **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% |
| **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% |
| **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% |
| **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 |
| **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 |
While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges.
Outlook for EUR/USD
Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth.
Conclusion
While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing.
Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
EURUSD: Optimal Selling Zone!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURUSD Analysis !
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support! Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
November/2024
source: EUROSTAT
Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected
-The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects,
as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
EURUSD - Outlook for 29/11/2024EURUSD has completed move to our 1st resistance Target and had a rejection. If the candle closes above resistance and respects trendline, we should see higher level touched. However the stochastic indicator is signalling a possible retracement. Therefore a break of trendline and below support may result in bearish move.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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