EURUSD: Market of Sellers
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the EURUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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Eurusd-3
EUR/USD : First Long, then SHORT! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #EURUSD chart in the daily timeframe, we can observe that the price is currently trading around the demand zone of 1.056. having declined over 500 pips from previous highs. This decline has brought the price into a significant demand zone between 1.0520 and 1.0580, where we anticipate a potential bullish reaction.
If the price manages to hold above this level, we can anticipate a short-term upward move. However, the overall trend remains bearish unless proven otherwise!
Fundamentally, the euro has been under pressure due to concerns over potential U.S. tariff hikes following Donald Trump's election victory, which could negatively impact the eurozone economy. Historically, the euro has fallen below the $1 mark twice, including for a few months in 2022 amidst rising U.S. interest rates and the energy price surge from the Ukraine war. A weak euro could raise import costs, potentially spiking inflation, though recent trends suggest inflation may not be a major concern. On the flip side, euro depreciation benefits exporters, particularly in Germany.
In summary, while the EUR/USD is currently in a bearish trend, the proximity to a significant demand zone and oversold technical indicators suggest a potential short-term upward correction. However, the overall trend remains bearish unless a sustained move above key resistance levels occurs.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
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EUR/USD Outlook: Patience Is Key in Uncertain MarketsThe EUR/USD pair is gaining traction as the US Dollar Index retracts from its peak of 107.06, while the euro rebounded from the 1.0500 level yesterday.
The exchange rate remains within a key demand zone, and as noted previously, a price pullback could occur if it breaches this range, leading to retracement opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has remarked that the US economy is performing "remarkably well," which paves the way for a gradual reduction in interest rates.
In contrast, the minutes from the European Central Bank's October Monetary Policy Meeting suggested a growing inclination towards rate cuts, tempered by concerns over domestic inflation.
Today’s release of US Core Retail Sales and overall Retail Sales figures may shed light on the economic outlook. Should the euro continue its upward momentum, traders might contemplate a long position in the upcoming week. Our forecasting model indicates a potential price surge during this period; however, it’s important to recognize that market conditions are influenced by significant movements, including the Trump's rally that has been propelling the DXY to new highs.
Thus, exercise patience before entering any trades is recommended at this stage.
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Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0524
1st Support: 1.0461
1st Resistance: 1.0600
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Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to support area at 1.05183.Dear colleagues, I assume that the price will continue the downward movement and will soon reach the area of 1.05183.
This movement will be a wave “C” of the higher order.
The most important thing now is to understand where exactly the downward movement will end, because if you look at the daily timeframe, the price is still in a major upward movement, so after reaching the target, I will look for long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Euro D1 | Pullback resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.0618 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.0680 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 1.0466 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
MORE ACCURATE ROUTE FOR GOLDour idea is still valid but needs a little bit of clarification : we thought gold would follow some kind of round top pattern ;
now it seems like a 3/4 tops and a HH, then a drawdown to 2500s by next week.
However it will come back up at some point soon, around the beginning of 2025, so stay advised and don't try to sell it under 2500.
USDJPY UPMaybe a little too optimistic on the detail precision, but this should turn out like that at some point tonight and tommorrow ;
USD has been on a big rally lately thanks to Trump and is not done yet, now is still the time for USD products to go high ;
however there could be a massive correction soon with VIX and GOLD going back up, but not for another week or more.
USDJPY - 3 Massive Swings Completed. 4th Swing Ready...USDJPY has been providing us with big swing opportunities. Our last public post resulted in a 1200pip take profit!
We are now on the verge of getting our 4th big swing setup.
We are in a 5 wave impulse at the moment, indicating that we are in a Wave A (of wave 2) as opposed to a wave 2. This is why we are anticipating price to create an abc correction for wave 2 in the form of 535 zigzag.
Trade Setup:
- Watch for rejection of the fib level
- Confirmation can be the break of the red trendline or any other reversal signs such as BOS
- Targets: 148 (950pips), Hold position and taper as we move lower
We'll update this setup if we get enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 VIP Setup:
EURO - Price can leave triangle and rise to $1.0765 levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price fell to $1.1085 level and some time traded near, after which bounced and rose to $1.1210 points.
Then price started to decline in falling channel, where it broke $1.1085 level and fell to support line at once.
In channel, EUR declined until to $1.0765 level, which coincided with resistance area and some time traded near.
Later, price exited from channel, and entered to triangle, but firstly made a gap and then bounced down.
Price broke $1.0765 level and now it trades near resistance line of triangle, so, I think can make correction.
After this, Euro will bounce up to $1.0765 resistance level, exiting from a triangle.
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EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Momentum Below Key PivotEUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD price is currently consolidating below the pivot line at 1.0680, showing bearish momentum. If this bearish trend continues, the next movement is likely to test support levels below.
Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If the price continues to trade below the pivot line (1.0680) and breaks below the immediate support at 1.0616, it may reach down to the next support at 1.0544. A close below 1.0616 would strengthen this bearish outlook.
Bullish Scenario: For a bullish reversal, the price needs to reclaim and stabilize above the resistance line at 1.0739. This move would suggest a shift towards higher targets, potentially testing 1.0861.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 1.0680
Resistance Levels: 1.0739, 1.0780, 1.0861
Support Levels: 1.0616, 1.0544, 1.0470
Trend Outlook: The bearish scenario is currently more accurate as long as the price remains below the pivot line and support levels are tested.
previous idea:
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.05462
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD SHORT IDEA - INTRADAYLook for shorts only once it gives MSS on 1 mint on given marked area.
Execute the price at the exact price mentioned, NO FOMO.
💡KEEP IN MIND💡
I am not a financial advisor and do not contribute to any of your losses or profits. To be safe, I recommend that you risk only 0.1 - 0.2% for the first week or 10 days, as no one can predict the market.
🚀Follow, I will drop daily 2-5 Intraday Charts🚀
EUR/USD Remains Bearish Amid Trump's Economic PoliciesThe EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a sustained bearish trend for the past five days, largely influenced by the implications of the ongoing "Trump trade." Since the elections, this trade has significantly contributed to the rally of the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's strength against a group of foreign currencies, has surged to its highest point since November 2023, driven by anticipations that the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for growth.
Additionally, Trump's proposals to increase tariffs on imports are raising concerns that inflation may rise, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to halt its cycle of monetary easing. Recent data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), released Wednesday, suggests that the nation is making sluggish progress in curtailing inflation, implying that there may be fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon for the next year. This situation supports the persistence of high US Treasury bond yields and further elevates the USD's value broadly.
According to the latest report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI recorded a rise of 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Notably, the core CPI, which omits the more volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 0.3% last month and saw a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year. These figures reinforce speculation that the Fed could implement a third rate cut in December, amid signs of a cooling labor market.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price has approached our identified Demand zone, where we are on the lookout for a potential rebound. However, as of now, there are no indicators suggesting an imminent price increase. Therefore, exercising patience and waiting for confirmation is essential at this stage.
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BTC BEARISHCorrection from yesterday : BTC is clearly going down for now ;
as it is not a real asset indexed on some real currency (even though it is really strong of course), it does not follow the same logical paths as gold and nasdaq, so it is really tough to know;
bears are starting to take over for BTC, and it might be the beginning of a slow fall for bitcoin.
US100/NASDAQ STILL GOING UPThe white lines are yesterday's projections, which are a little late ;
the setup is still valid and a little late but will make NASDAQ rise once again ;
more precisely this time, we put together a possible route for this, stopping and reversing at KL and previous HH and LL.
XAUUSD FAKE BULLSAs Gold started an impressive bearish era, losing more than 200 points against all odds, now seems like a good time for it to calm down ;
Gold going down, as well as VIX in some way, shows that the economy is getting better, Gold only rises when the world falls apart (war, inflation, pandemics).
So with such a great leader it seems obvious that now gold is to come back to normal levels, and should not rise again, at least not so sharp, but for how long ?
XAU/USD : CPI is coming, Bull or Bear ?Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after entering the highlighted demand zone, gold has delivered a return of over 270 pips so far and is currently trading around $2611.
It’s important to note that today we have the CPI data release, which could significantly impact gold prices. If the CPI figures come in higher than expected, we’re likely to see further declines in gold, and vice versa if the data comes in lower.
Key demand zones remain at $2586-$2593 and $2555-$2562, while important supply zones are $2610, $2619-$2626, and $2643. Additionally, the recent sharp declines in gold have created several liquidity gaps, marked in purple on the chart, which are expected to be filled in the medium term as the price recovers.
Stay cautious and keep an eye on these levels, as well as the CPI announcement, for potential trading opportunities!
The Last Analysis :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce off 127.2%?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 1.0528, which is an overlap support.
Our take profit will be at 1.0605, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0460 which is a swing low support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.