EUR/USD : Another Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as per the previous analysis, the price faced selling pressure after filling the FVG and collecting liquidity above 1.12. So far, it has dropped over 160 pips down to 1.10500! If the price stabilizes below 1.10700, we can expect further declines in EUR/USD. This analysis will be updated, folks!
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Eurusd-3
EUR/USD Decline, USD Gains Momentum as Strong Job DataThe US labor market continues to exhibit strength, bolstering the US dollar as recent data beats expectations. The US JOLTS Job Openings report, released on Tuesday, showed a surprising increase of 329K job openings, rising from a revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August. This unexpected surge reinforces the resilience of the US economy, providing near-term support to the US dollar. Additionally, today's ADP private sector survey reported that 143K jobs were added in September, exceeding the 120K forecast, while August's reading was revised upward from 99K to 103K.
These positive labor market signals have intensified the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly against the euro. As we previously forecasted for EUR/USD, the price rejected our key Supply area and has already reached the first take-profit target. With the pair edging closer to our second target, the US dollar's strength looks set to drive EUR/USD lower, with the next potential support sitting at the 1.09500 area.
Strong US Labor Data Drives Dollar Higher
The JOLTS and ADP reports reflect the robustness of the US labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to maintain higher interest rates. With job openings and private sector employment both outperforming expectations, market sentiment is increasingly favoring the US dollar as investors anticipate the Fed may continue its hawkish stance.
The surge in job openings suggests that demand for labor remains high, which could keep inflationary pressures elevated and justify further rate hikes or prolonged tight monetary policy. Likewise, the ADP data highlights sustained private-sector job growth, reinforcing the overall strength of the labor market and lending further support to the greenback.
EUR/USD Under Pressure: Aiming for 1.09500?
On the technical front, EUR/USD remains under pressure after rejecting the Supply area as anticipated in our earlier forecast. The pair has already hit the first take-profit level, and further downside appears likely if today's US Unemployment Claims report comes in better than expected. A less severe unemployment figure compared to the forecast would strengthen the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.09500 support zone.
The pair has been trending lower due to a combination of strong US economic data and a weaker euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence between the Fed and the ECB has weighed heavily on the euro, and with US data continuing to outperform, the trend could persist in the near term.
Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims
Today, the market will focus on the release of US Unemployment Claims data, which could further influence the direction of EUR/USD. Should the report come in better than forecast, indicating a continued decline in unemployment, the dollar would likely strengthen further, pushing the pair closer to the 1.09500 mark.
In conclusion, the combination of strong US labor data and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve is fueling dollar strength, pressuring EUR/USD lower. If today's unemployment claims report aligns with the recent positive trend in US employment, a continuation of the bearish momentum could drive the pair to our next target. Traders should watch the unemployment claims release for further confirmation of this downward move.
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EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.10193
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
BTCUSD: How to trade ?Today’s analysis for BTCUSDT based on the chart shows a potential continuation of bearish momentum. The price has been rejected at a resistance level around $63,000, highlighted by the red arrow and labeled "Resist". The current price is hovering around $61,100, and we observe that BTCUSDT is struggling to break back above this resistance zone.
Key Points:
Resistance: $63,000 is acting as a strong resistance level.
Support: There is a crucial support zone around $54,300, as shown in the green area on the chart.
Strategy:
Bearish Scenario: If BTCUSDT fails to break above the resistance around $63,000, a further drop towards the support level at $54,300 is likely. Consider short positions below the resistance level with a target near the support zone.
Stop Loss: Set above $63,000 to mitigate risks in case of a breakout.
Bullish Scenario: If there is a clean break above the $63,000 resistance level, the next upside target could be around $66,000 or higher, invalidating the bearish outlook.
The overall sentiment remains cautious as investors monitor price action around key resistance and support zones.
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price started to consolidate
within a narrow horizontal range.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range is a strong bearish confirmation.
The pair may continue falling to 1.1015
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Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary H4. 03.10.2024Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary
Euro is forming a correction downwards and judging by the options, will be taken out to the area of 1.1000. This analysis was shown in advance in a private channel for subscribers when a deep correction downwards was confirmed, and later clarified by options. From the lower boundary near 1.10 we will catch buys when confirmed. Cumulative delta rising on a decline is a sign of a pullback and continuation of the decline, so I am not in a hurry and waiting for a rebound with confirmation of a reversal.
OANDA:EURUSD
US Dollar Index Climbs to 101.00 as Powell Signals Rate CutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen close to the 101.00 level following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that future rate cuts would be implemented gradually. This rise comes as no surprise, as the DXY has rebounded from a key demand area that was previously identified. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bearish on the US Dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have shifted toward long positions, further supporting the currency's strength.
This bullish sentiment in the US Dollar is reinforced by the fundamental backdrop. Today, the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports could further fuel the DXY’s upward momentum. A positive outcome from these key economic indicators would indicate continued resilience in the US economy, bolstering expectations for the Fed to maintain its gradual approach to rate adjustments, which in turn supports the USD.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, and a strong reading would reflect ongoing economic expansion, likely pushing the DXY higher. Similarly, the JOLTS Job Openings data provides insights into labor market strength, and a robust figure would further cement the case for a stronger US Dollar.
Technically, the DXY’s recovery from the demand area, combined with the shift in institutional positioning, points to a sustained bullish outlook for the US Dollar. With smart money moving to the long side and retailers still bearish, the DXY could continue its climb, especially if today's economic data aligns with market expectations.
In conclusion, the US Dollar Index is experiencing a bullish run following Powell’s comments on gradual rate cuts, and the momentum is likely to be reinforced by positive ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. As retail traders remain bearish and institutional investors shift toward the long side, the DXY could see further gains in the near term, particularly if economic data supports the Fed’s cautious but optimistic outlook.
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024)
source: EUROSTAT
- Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed.
Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%.
Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%).
Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%.
Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%).
The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates.
Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
USDCHF H1: Best level to BUY/HOLD TP +135 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the 1hour chart for USDCHF today. We are locked inside trading range recently, currently trading near range lows, so risk/reward shifted in bulls favor, therefore recommend to focus on buying low .
🔸Trading range is defined by range highs at 8500 and range lows at 8420, premium prices overhead at 8520 and 8535 and below at 8400 and 8390. Outlook remains mixed as I expect price to trade locked in range to absorb recent losses in USDCHF.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCHF traders: focus on buying low near
premium prices below the range lows. SL fixed at 8375 TP1 +65 pips TP2 +130 pips final exit at 8520. good luck traders.
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EURUSD Multi TImeframe Analysis 03.10.2024M15 Swing and Internal Structures are both Bearish aligned with 4H Structure. If you are looking for Longs, beter be cautious.
The price is now in Daily Demand zone and approaching to old 4H Demand but this low is likely to be taken so I don't think it is going to hold long but we might see fake 15m bullish breaks in this 4H demand before it fails.
Ideally wait price to mitigate 15m Supply to take shorts which would be more probable than long positions.
Check 4H and Daily Analysis below
EURUSD: Continuously searching for new bottoms!Dear Investors,
Today, let's dive into the EURUSD pair analysis with Conan!
In recent days, EURUSD has not had many big fluctuations, but still maintains the trend of finding new bottoms through red candles. Technically, the double top pattern has been confirmed and the price has broken the 1.1100 level, opening the possibility of a deeper decline. However, to break the strong support at 1.1000, the sellers need confirmation from the new resistance zone at 1.1085 - a level that matches the 0.618 Fibonacci level in our forecast. Potential profit-taking levels that investors can consider are 1.1000 and 1.0900 respectively.
What do you think about this analysis? Share your views!
EurUsd- Could drop 150 pipsYesterday, EUR/USD saw a sharp drop from the 1.12 level, reinforcing it as a strong resistance. The pair rebounded after touching the rising trend line, but in my view, it's only a matter of time before this support is broken.
In conclusion, I am looking to sell into rallies, targeting the 1.10 support, with a stop in place should there be a daily close above 1.12.
Could price reverse from here?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.1020
1st Support: 1.0957
1st Resistance: 1.1075
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EURUSD H4 | Bearish Continuation Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.1046, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.1003, a swing-low support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1092, which is a pullback resistance level.
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#EURUSD - 3 OctPZ held the highs perfectly as EURUSD just moved lower; if wait for a pullback, will not get that unfortunately.
While I could continue to be bearish from here; I decide to try a counter-trend long from the triple support zone below. Would need to get a bullish reversal candle off the zone for the long, instead of going long directly IMO. Upside target would be to 1.1074.
Riding the Wave: A Deep Dive into EURUSDElliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and individuals should consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Current Analysis
Based on the provided Elliott Wave chart, we've identified the following:
Completed Waves: Waves (1) to (4) have been completed in blue.
Potential Ongoing Wave: Wave (5) is currently unfolding, with wave 1 completed in red.
Scenario 1: Upward Reversal
If the low of wave (4) is not breached, we can anticipate a potential upward reversal. This would indicate the completion of wave 2 in red and the beginning of wave 3 in red. This bullish scenario suggests a continuation of the uptrend.
Scenario 2: Downward Correction
If the low of wave (4) is broken, it would suggest that wave (4) is still in progress. This could lead to a further downward correction before the uptrend resumes.
Key Points
Support Level: The low of wave (4) serves as a crucial support level. A break below this level would invalidate the current bullish scenario.
Resistance Level: The high of wave (1) could act as a potential resistance level. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Elliott Wave Theory: This analysis is based on Elliott Wave Theory, which posits that financial markets move in predictable patterns. However, it's important to note that Elliott Wave analysis is not infallible, and other factors can influence market movements.
Conclusion
The current analysis suggests a bullish outlook for EURUSD, assuming the low of wave (4) is not breached. However, it's crucial to remain vigilant and monitor market developments closely. Always conduct thorough research and consider multiple factors before making any trading decisions.
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EUR/USD - We Keep Flying..Interesting breakout of a structural channel.
(If you allow yourself to see the details, you will notice that the breakout was accelerated).
In the long term, the market does not stop rising!!
(Don't react, use the strategy)
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EURUSD: Dollar going stronger than EuroThe orange circle, shows the exact moment where, at the same time, ICEUS:DX1! crossed over CME:6E1! and the 200-sma was in the middle of this crossover.
The Dollar futures are gaining stregth while on the other hand, Euro futures are falling in price.
After the crossover, a strong bearish candle cross the support, the price remain in congestion with yesterday price closing at 1.10533.
Today the price is already below a support during early september and a resistance in the week after.
Indicators: Besides the 200sma. The RSI is projecting to go overbought or at least close, while DMI- is increasing the direction and ADX is confirming the trend strength.