EUR/USD – Breakout or Fakeout? Key Levels to Watch!Hello again
EUR/USD has been pushing higher, testing a key resistance zone. The question is will it break through or get rejected?
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
1.0541 is the key level price is hovering around. A clean break could push us towards 1.0644 & 1.0747.
If it fails to hold, we might see a retest of 1.0450 and 1.0427.
👀 My Take:
If price stays above 1.0541, we could see bullish continuation. But if we drop below 1.0450, then this might have just been a fakeout before heading lower.
Eurusd-3
EUR/USD Market Update: Bullish Momentum in Play
CAPITALCOM:EURUSD
We just updated our analysis according to the latest price action. Today's move gave us solid confirmation of the bullish trend. The market pulled back to 1.04276, touched our support level perfectly, and then bounced back up—just as expected. We've adjusted our star pattern while keeping the same key levels intact.
Chart Analysis:
Current Situation: The price is currently hovering around 1.04878, showing good strength after the bounce.
Support Level: 1.04276 proved itself as a solid support. The price respected this level, giving us more confidence in our bullish bias.
First Target: Our immediate target is 1.05415. This level lines up nicely with both our geometric grid and historical resistance. If the price keeps this momentum, it shouldn't take long to reach it.
Key Levels to Watch:
1.06440: This is the next resistance level. If we break through 1.05415, this is where we’ll focus.
1.07469 and 1.08626: These are more ambitious targets but definitely possible if the bullish momentum continues.
1.10834: This would be a real win, indicating a strong shift in the overall trend.
What the Chart Tells Us:
The updated chart shows how our geometric grid aligns with price action. The white "star" pattern gives us a roadmap, and the red dashed lines highlight important time pivots. These intersections often guide the price, so I’m keeping a close eye on them.
The recent "choch 4h" at 1.03738 marks a change of character on the 4-hour chart. It’s a good sign that the bearish phase might be behind us, and we’re in a new bullish cycle.
Bottom Line:
We’re on track toward 1.05415, and if the market keeps this pace, higher targets could be in play. I’ll be watching how the price reacts around our geometric intersections and adjusting as needed. The plan is simple: ride the bullish wave but stay ready in case the market throws us a curveball.
EURUSD - FOMC Prep - These 2 scenarios to anticipateMarket is overall uptrend after previous low showed the reversal point to head higher.
Bias is for the Buy
However, FOMC can produce volatility so we can have spikes in both direction.
There's a Sell scenario off an H4 gap.
But the preferred idea is to head lower, getting a better price on the HTF, then continue to the Equal Highs / Double top, taking out the liquidity target eventually.
Be aware, if it's not clear this week, we may have a clearer picture on next week's news and the move could also happen then if there's a delay/ranging market.
The D1 timeframe usually provides the smoother outlook. I mostly base my ideas on that.
Leave your comments below if you have any questions. Thanks
Euro may continue to rise inside wedge, after a small correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Analyzing the chart, we can see that the price initially climbed from the support line, which lies within the buyer zone, and quickly advanced to the resistance level, aligning with the seller zone. Following this movement, the price pulled back from the 1.0440 level and corrected down to the support line. It hovered around this level for a while before breaking through and dropping into the buyer zone, creating a gap. After that, the Euro began moving upward within a broadening wedge, but soon it retraced back to the support level again. From there, it rebounded and climbed to the resistance level, eventually breaking through and rising toward the upper boundary of the broadening wedge. However, at that point, the price reversed direction and started declining, quickly falling to the support line of the wedge and breaking the resistance level once again. Recently, the Euro bounced off this line and broke above the 1.0440 level again. Currently, it is trading within the seller zone, and I anticipate a correction toward the support line of the broadening wedge before the price resumes its upward movement. Given this outlook, my TP is set at 1.0540 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0473 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0403
Safe Stop Loss - 1.0514
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0426
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0448
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURO - Price can break resistance level and rise to $1.0500Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price started to trades inside a triangle, bouncing from $1.0450 level and dropping to $1.0275 level.
After this, price bounced from this level and rose to resistance line of triangle and then started to decline.
Price fell to $1.0175 support line of triangle and then in a short time rose to resistance line and exited from this pattern.
Next, Euro started to trades another one triangle, where it reached $1.0530 points and then dropped.
Euro made a strong gap and later rose back to resistance line of triangle, but recently it fell below $1.0450 level.
Possibly, price can fall to support line and then bounce up to $1.0500 resistance line of triangle.
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EURUSD Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.043.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.041 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
+200 pips Best Level to Short GBPCHF from Resistance🔸Hello traders, let's review the H6 chart for GBPCHF today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in GBPCHF.
🔸Heavy overhead mirror S/R zone at 1440/1460 expecting reversal
from overhead resistance. current bid is 1380so final push required
before we can get a decent entry on sell side.
🔸Recommended strategy for GBPCHF traders: short any rips/rallies near S/R 1440/1460 price is currently trading near premium levels and is almost maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears 1260 TP2 bears 1230 pips final exit 1230 +200 pips. This is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit targets. good luck traders!
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EURUSD 20 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - US Unemployment ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some USA economic news today:
US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%).
3️⃣
🔹After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand.
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures.
🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount.
🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback.
🔹Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish.
3️⃣
🔹It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation).
🔹Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.0451, a pullback resistance.
A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.0372, an overlap that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.05210, positioned above the previous swing high, providing sufficient room for fluctuations while ensuring the bearish setup remains valid.
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XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts:
1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February)
A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion)
Support Levels:
Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD
Indicators:
RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish.
MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals
Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact
2. Fundamental Drivers
Fed Minutes Impact:
The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold
Dollar Dynamics:
The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher
3. Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Case:
A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD
Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher
Bearish Risks:
Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD
Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains
4. Strategic Takeaways
Entry Points:
Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD
Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks
Risk Management:
Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility.
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EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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EURUSD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.04300 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSDEURUSD price has a chance to test the resistance zone 1.05053-1.05257. If the price cannot break through the 1.05257 level, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will go down. Consider selling the red zone.
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Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
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XAU/USD : Time for BUY? Let's see! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold broke above the $2,902.5 resistance yesterday and continued its bullish movement, successfully hitting the next targets at $2,914 and $2,919!
I hope you made the most of this analysis! 🚀
The next potential move depends on whether gold stabilizes above $2,914. If it does, we could see further growth toward $2,922 and $2,928 as the next upside targets.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Trade Idea for U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Feb 19, 2025📌 Current Market Context
DXY is trading at 107.023 , slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (106.344).
This level is a key golden ratio support, where strong reversals often happen.
The uptrend from Sept 2024 suggests that bulls are still in control unless this retracement turns into a full reversal.
📈 Bullish Trade Idea (Buy Setup)
✅ Entry: Look for bullish price action (rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a strong bounce) near 106.344 - 106.500 .
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 108.035 (78.6% Fib)
Target 2 : 110.189 (previous high)
📍 Stop-Loss: Below 105.800 (just under 61.8% retracement to avoid stop hunts).
📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 or better.
📉 Bearish Trade Idea (Sell Setup)
❌ Trigger: If DXY closes below 106.344 on a daily candle , it could signal further downside.
📉 Entry: Sell below 106.200 after confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 105.156 (50% Fib)
Target 2 : 103.968 (38.2% Fib)
📍 Stop-Loss: Above 107.000 (to avoid fakeouts).
📊 Risk/Reward: 1:2 minimum.
🛠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fundamental news (FOMC, inflation data, rate decisions) that could cause volatility.
Use partial take profits to secure gains along the way.
If entering a buy trade, consider trailing stops once price reaches 108.035.