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Eurusd-4

EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0579 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.0536 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD: the ECB week aheadThe Non-farm Payrolls for November were the main macro indicator that the market was waiting for during the previous week. The NFP of 227K in November was slightly above the market expectations of 200K. At the same time, the unemployment rate in November increased a bit to 4,2%, from the previous 4,1%. Average hourly earnings were higher by 0,4% for the month, which brings the indicator up by 4% for the year. As for other US macro data published during the week, the ISM Manufacturing reached the level of 48,4 in November, modestly above market estimate of 47,5. The ISM Services PMI in November reached the level of 52,1 which was lower from market estimate of 55,5. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for December is standing at 74,0 a bit higher from the market expectation of 72,5. Inflation expectation for the next five years has a bit decreased to the level of 3,1%, from 3,2% posted during the previous month. The Manufacturing industry in Germany continues to slow down. As per posted HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November, the index in Germany reached the level of 43, which was below market estimate of 43,2. The same index reached 46 in the Euro Zone a bit better from forecasted 45,2. At the same time, the services sector in Germany is doing better from manufacturing, as HCOB Services PMI final for November reached 51,6 a bit better from estimated 49,4. The same index for the Euro Zone was also standing at the level of 51,6. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone dropped by -0,6% in October, bringing the total drop to -3,4% for the year. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone were higher by 0,5% in October, bringing the indicator up by 2,9% for the year. The Industrial Production in Germany dropped by -2,5% in October for the month, which was significantly below market expectations of +2,5%. Despite the relatively solid jobs data, the market is increasing odds that the Fed will further cut interest rates at their December meeting. The USD weakened a bit during the previous week, from the level of 1,048 up to the level of 1,062. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,056. The RSI started its path toward the upside, however at the level of 45, there is no clear sign that the market is currently eyeing the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continued its divergence from the MA200, confirming the cross occurred two weeks ago. The week ahead will be the ECB week. The Europeans will decide on the future course of reference interest rates. Considering decreasing inflation, but also weakening of the EuroZone economy, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. On the other hand, the US market will digest the latest NFP and inflation data and position accordingly for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th. As per current charts, there is some probability for resistance line at 1,07 to be tested, but first the 1,06 level should be clearly breached. At the same time, charts are also showing some probability that 1,05 support could be tested for one more time. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Inflation rate in Germany final for November, ECB Interest Rate Decision (expectations: 3%), ECB Press conference after the ECB meeting, ECB Economic Projections, Balance of Trade in Germany for October, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for December in Germany and the Euro Zone USD: Inflation rate in November, Producers Price Index in November
by XBTFX
EUR/USD: Are We Crashing Through Parity?Well, well, well, EUR/USD, you sly dog. Just when we thought the pair might catch a break, it doubles down on its favorite hobby—going DOWN. 📉 Since late September, this thing has been in a nosedive so steep it makes roller coasters look tame. 🎢 And now? It’s giving us not one but TWO glorious bearish flags. That’s the market’s way of saying, “Hold my beer, I’ve got more downside to cover.” 🍺 So, buckle up as we break down what’s happening with EUR/USD, why it’s acting like a currency in free fall, and just how low it might go. Spoiler alert: Parity might not be far enough. 😏 The Downtrend Diaries: EUR/USD’s Love Affair with Lows Okay, let’s rewind to late September. What happened? Oh, just EUR/USD deciding it was time to swap its bull costume for a full-blown bear suit. 🐻 We’re talking lower highs, lower lows, and every technical analyst’s favorite phrase: "the trend is your friend" (until it’s not, of course). This week? The pair is snuggled nicely inside its second bearish flag, like a bear hibernating before its next big move. For those of you wondering, a bearish flag is when the market pauses, catches its breath, and says, “Alright, time to drop some more.” And let me tell you, these flags aren’t subtle. They’re practically screaming, “Hey, the trend’s still bearish—don’t get any ideas!” Why So Bearish? Let’s Blame the Usual Suspects The Almighty Dollar Flexing Again 💪 The USD is out here reminding everyone why it’s called the safe-haven king. Interest rates? Still high. Risk-off sentiment? Very much alive. Meanwhile, the euro’s like that one kid who forgot to study for the test—it’s just not prepared to fight back. 🤷‍♂️ Eurozone: Where’s the Mojo? Between slowing growth, sticky inflation, and the French government imploding (because why not?), the euro is struggling to convince anyone it’s worth a rally. Even the promise of €500 billion in defense spending couldn’t lift its spirits for long. If fiscal spending can’t save the day, what can? Bearish Flags Don’t Lie 🚩 These flags are the cherry on top of the downtrend sundae. First, we had one around 1.0650, which broke lower like clockwork. Now we’re staring down another flag that’s coiled tighter than my jeans after Thanksgiving dinner. Once this breaks, well... let’s just say the floor is looking mighty inviting. How Low Can It Go? Let’s Talk Targets 🔭 Now, if this flag plays out like the textbook says, EUR/USD could easily revisit 1.0450. And if that level doesn’t hold? Get ready to dust off those parity memes. Yes, I’m talking 1.0000, the big, scary, psychological level where everyone suddenly remembers how to panic. 😱 But hey, let’s not stop there. The lower boundary of the larger downtrend is lurking below 0.9900, and if the bears get really hungry, that’s where they’ll feast. 🍴 The Sarcastic Silver Lining: What Would It Take to Flip Bullish? Oh, you want bullish scenarios? That’s cute. 😏 Here’s what would need to happen: The euro suddenly gets a personality transplant and decides it’s worth something. The USD forgets it’s the global reserve currency and takes a nap. A miracle. Like, divine intervention-level miracle. But seriously, unless EUR/USD breaks above 1.0600 with conviction (and by conviction, I mean a rally that doesn’t immediately fall apart), the bears are still in charge. Final Thoughts: Trade Smart or Get Wrecked 💀 Look, the writing’s on the wall. EUR/USD is in a downtrend, the flags are flapping, and the bears are sharpening their claws. This isn’t the time to play hero and try to catch a bottom. Instead, let the trend do its thing, wait for the flag to break, and ride the wave lower. 🌊 And hey, if it does hit parity, at least we’ll have something to talk about at the next market meltdown party. 🎉 Until then, keep those stop-losses tight, and don’t forget: the trend might be your friend, but it’s also got a dark sense of humor. Catch you next time, traders. George out. 🎤
Short
by EdgeDotForex
#EURUSD 4HEURUSD 4-Hour Analysis The EURUSD pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is typically a bearish reversal signal. However, in this case, the price action suggests a potential invalidation of the pattern, favoring a bullish breakout scenario. If the neckline resistance is broken, it could provide a buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Potential Breakout) Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position upon a confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance with strong bullish momentum. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation such as a breakout candlestick with increased volume or indicators like MACD signaling upward momentum. Proper risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed below the neckline and profit targets set at the next resistance levels.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis. Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance. As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765. You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges: Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
1
#EURUSD - 09122024I was more bearish EURUSD last week towards the end of the week. On Friday it made a new high before coming down. Price action points to the downside on daily, though on weekly it is a doji, which IMO could indicate just a consolidation after the previous up move. I will be looking for downside before any bullish confirmation (that is, could see buyers come in later in the week). For today, a re-test and rejection off the PZ could see a move lower to target 1.0515 and 1.0490.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support level. Pivot: 1.0603 1st Support: 1.0332 1st Resistance: 1.0780 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0588 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retraecment. Stop loss: 1.0629 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.0530 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
EURUSD possible meltdownEURUSD has been moving bearish for a while now, and has just recently made it back towards a very deep premium zone. After a massive break of structure on the 4h timeframe, price preceded to retrace and accumuulate lots of internal range liquidity in the form of highs and a trendline as highlighted. We just saw that all that liquidity was taken out after the news events on Friday. Price gave us a shift in market structure on the internal structure after mitigating a supply zone that was left behind during the previous expansion. This now gives us a confirmed opportunity to enter in on the possibly-to- continue bearish move to go and take out the latest weak low.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
EUR/USD moving towards 1.02!As of December 8, 2024, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown significant volatility, influenced by mixed economic data and central bank monetary policies. Recently, the exchange rate hit multi-year lows, bottoming out at 1.0332 on November 22, followed by a rebound that brought the pair to fluctuate around 1.0570. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined after initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 in the week ending November 30, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December showed an improvement, indicating increased consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of slowing, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI declining and a contraction in France's services sector activity. This data highlights economic weakness that could influence future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The market currently sees a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Historically, December has been a positive month for EUR/USD, with an average return of 1.23% over the past 50 years. However, current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties could limit this seasonal trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity. We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower. As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week. Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
GBPAUD - 4 Year Plan. Over 8,000pips To Be Made! Here we have the 2week chart of GBPAUD. Wave A = 5 wave Leading diagonal. Wave B = Complex WXY correction (3x3x3) Wave C = Expecting 5 Waves We are currently on final part of Wave B. As mentioned above, Wave B is a WXY correction so each part has 3 subwaves. We are in Wave Y, subwave B. We believe the top has been made for wave subwave B and so we can look to trade the minor wave c (red move) with stops above the current highs. GBPAUD 2D Chart Trade Idea (Red Move): - Risk entry on market open - Stops above invalidation level - Targets: 1.915 (800pips), 1.86 (1400pips) Once the red move is done, we can focus on the blue move. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
2
EURO - Price can enter to resistance area and then start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price declined inside falling channel, where it bounced from $1.0580 level and fell to $1.0460 level. Then price broke this level and fell to $1.0330 points, thereby exiting from channel, but then it made upward impulse. Also, Euro made a first gap, after which started to trades inside flat, where it at once made retest and started to grow. Price rose to $1.0580 level, some time traded near, and then dropped to support level, making a second gap. Next, price in a short time rose back to resistance level, made a fake breakout, and now trades below in flat. Possibly, Euro can enter to resistance area again and then start to decline to $1.0500 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
2
Wave Five Down Ahead!!!I identify a clear double ZZ(zigzag) pattern rising from the low made on November 22 of this year. There are multiple reasons to believe the move is over we are in for a downtrend. From a momentum standpoint, we can see that the second swing-up in this move failed to exceed or even match the one of the first. The slope of the second swing is also more slanted to side, indicating a lose of buying pressure, we'd ideally like to see the price pick up momentum as we move in the second swing in a move. For the most part, the price has moved above the trend line traced connecting the lows of the move, but we have to notice we did have a slip below for a few hours before resuming above it. A move and close below this line at Sunday open will throw more solidity to this scenario. Yes this pattern can also be read to be interpreted in a bullish way if we think that it might be creating a sequence of ones and twos before third move explodes up but given the trend we are traling, which is bearish, and the other factors mentioned, I lean into the bearish scenario. Finally, the timing of this continuation down can be tricky but I believe that the volatility on Friday (likely due to NFP) nudged the price to come and take the liquidity stuck at around the 1.06315 area as highlighted by the orange circle, as well as inducing a lot of buying by breaking above those corrective levels. All that said, nothing matter if we see price break above 1.063 which was the high set on Friday. Hsppy Trading :)
by HydraFinance