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Eurusd-4

EUR/USD Holds Ground: Will US Jobless Claims Spark a Rebound?The EUR/USD pair is holding its ground early on Thursday, hovering near 1.0803 as I write this analysis. Despite the lingering risk-averse sentiment in the market, the US Dollar (USD) continues to gain traction, driven by Wednesday’s rise in US Treasury bond yields. The pair managed to stabilize after a four-day slide, but the Greenback’s strength remains evident amid growing demand for safe-haven assets. US Economic Data in Focus The US economic calendar is set to deliver critical data in the second half of the day, including the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and S&P Global PMI data. The market expects the number of new unemployment benefit applications to approach 250,000, a potential increase that could trigger a bearish reaction for the USD. If this data indicates a softening labor market, it could challenge the recent bullish momentum of the US Dollar, causing a shift in sentiment. Given the anticipated economic releases, traders should be prepared for heightened volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Should the data meet or exceed the forecasted rise in jobless claims, it could weaken the USD, providing a potential boost for the Euro. However, the broader market remains cautious, suggesting that any positive move for the Euro could be short-lived. Technical Outlook: A Drop Before a Rebound? From a technical standpoint, we anticipate a potential pullback in the EUR/USD pair following the release of today’s data. The price could dip toward our set Buy Limit levels, presenting a buying opportunity before a possible recovery. Current market dynamics suggest that the pair could experience short-term selling pressure as traders react to the incoming data, followed by a rebound if the economic numbers align with expectations of a softer US labor market. COT Report Insights The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to show that retail traders are predominantly short on the EUR/USD, while institutional investors—often referred to as the "smart money"—have started to move in the opposite direction. This positioning shift indicates that major players might be preparing for a possible upward move in the pair, despite the prevailing risk-off sentiment. Conclusion: Brace for Volatility As we head into today’s US economic releases, expect high volatility in the EUR/USD. Traders should watch for potential bearish pressure on the USD if jobless claims rise as expected. However, the overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with the potential for rapid shifts in direction depending on the data outcome. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution. Stay alert, manage your risk carefully, and be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the EUR/USD navigates today’s volatile trading session.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USOIL Ready for $75!WTI oil prices have climbed back to $71.60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibility of disruptions in oil supplies from the region fuels market uncertainty. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations, is putting downward pressure on prices, indicating a potential oversupply. Additionally, the strengthening US dollar, which has reached its highest level since July, is reducing oil demand by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. These factors limit the potential for price increases, despite geopolitical concerns.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Euro H1 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.0794 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 1.0816 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 1.0762 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Euro and Yen Weakness Stands OutWe continue to see broad-based demand for the US dollar, though it's clear that most of the dollar strength of late has been against the Euro and the Yen. A new report has been making headlines, discussing a growing group of ECB members who think the central bank has fallen behind the curve on monetary easing. We've also been hearing plenty of dovish talk from a number of ECB officials. Meanwhile, in Japan, the Yen has been accelerating to the downside, partially due to this dollar demand and partially because of uncertainty heading into the weekend election in Japan. Looking ahead, we have the Bank of Canada policy decision, ECB President Lagarde's speech, Eurozone consumer confidence readings, existing home sales, Fed speak, and the Fed Beige Book. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
XAU/USD: Ready for a Pullback!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently retreated from an all-time high of around $2,560 and is currently trading slightly below $2,720, complicated by the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Technically, the $2,750 level has shown signs of rejection, making it a key resistance, while immediate support is located at $2,725, near the lower boundary of a two-week ascending channel. A convincing break below this support could trigger technical selling, pushing the price down toward $2,700 and subsequently to $2,680-2,675, where the 100-period simple moving average resides. Despite overbought conditions and pressure from the dollar, political uncertainty and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for gold as a safe haven. That said, gold seems poised for a correction toward $2,675, and we will see in the coming days if it gives us a signal for a short entry. Good evening and happy trading to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Extends Decline Amid USD Strength and Weak Eurozone DataThe EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, trading near fresh multi-week lows around the 1.0769 mark during Wednesday’s mid-European session. This decline reflects the ongoing strength of the US Dollar, fueled by a gloomy market sentiment and growing concerns surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure due to lackluster local macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that the Eurozone's economic challenges persist into the final quarter of the year. Factors Driving the EUR/USD Decline 1. US Dollar Strength The US Dollar remains dominant, driven by risk aversion as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst increasing political uncertainty in the US. The potential impact of the presidential election has added to market jitters, with investors favoring the Greenback for its perceived stability. Additionally, strong US economic data has reinforced the USD's bullish sentiment, suggesting that the US economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro and pushes the EUR/USD lower. 2. Weak Eurozone Macro Data The Euro struggles to gain traction, weighed down by recent disappointing economic figures from the Eurozone. The latest data indicates ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, suggesting that the region's economic recovery may be faltering. Persistent economic sluggishness in major Eurozone economies, like Germany and France, has dampened confidence in the Euro, as investors remain cautious about the currency's short-term prospects. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Approaches Key Demand Zone As anticipated in our previous forecast, the EUR/USD has bypassed an intermediate demand zone and is now approaching a more robust support area at the lower level. Here are the key factors at play: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bearish on the Euro, while institutional investors (often referred to as “smart money”) have begun to move in the opposite direction, accumulating long positions. This shift in positioning hints at a potential turnaround as the EUR/USD nears significant demand levels. DXY Overbought Condition: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is currently in overbought territory. This condition suggests that the USD rally could be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a EUR/USD rebound. The technical overextension of the DXY aligns with the prospect of a retracement, providing additional support for the Euro at the upcoming demand area. Buy Limit Setup: With the EUR/USD nearing a critical demand zone, we are considering placing a buy limit order. This approach aims to capitalize on a potential reversal at the lower demand area, which is supported by both technical indicators and the shifting COT report dynamics. Trading Strategy: Buy Limit on Demand Area Given the current conditions, a buy limit order near the next demand area presents a favorable risk-reward setup. Here’s how we’re approaching this potential trade: Entry: Set a buy limit order just above the upcoming demand zone, targeting a potential rebound in the EUR/USD pair. Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk in case of a continued slide. Target: Aim for a near-term bounce back toward resistance levels, aligning with potential DXY weakness and institutional positioning. Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism for a EUR/USD Rebound While the EUR/USD remains under pressure due to the prevailing USD strength and weak Eurozone data, technical factors and shifting market positioning suggest a potential short-term reversal. As the pair approaches a critical demand zone, a carefully placed buy limit order could offer a promising entry opportunity. With political uncertainty in the US and a potentially overbought USD, traders should monitor upcoming data releases and market sentiment closely, as these factors could influence the timing and magnitude of a possible EUR/USD bounce. As always, risk management is crucial, especially in a volatile environment shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
BoC Rates Decision Pending22nd October DXY: Currently at 104.30, expecting further upside, needs to break 104.45 to trade up to 104.80. NZDUSD: Sell 0.6015 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 65 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2950 SL 40 TP 130 (Hesitation at 1.2880) EURUSD: Sell 1.0760 SL 30 TP 80 USDJPY: Buy 152.70 SL 30 TP 130 (hesitation at 61.8% 153.30) USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 15 TP 40 USDCAD: Buy 1.3860 SL 20 TP 60 or (counter trend) Sell 1.3920 or 1.3820 (need to hear hawkish BoC) Gold: Buy on retracement, or scalp up to 2760 and 2768
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 23.10.20241.08111 low got swept as I mentioned on my earlier analysis. Friday's daily candle closure as inside bar has also been played out as expected. But bearish momentum is quite strong. Imo, current Daily Demand zone is the strongest to give price a bullish momentum ( other than any. red flagged fundamentals upcoming days ) 15m Swing, Internal Bearish and price is currently in 15m supply. We possibly could get a bearish momentum from here My expectation is, low to get swept then strong bullish momentum to kick in. But as we trade the facts and not the expectations, I will cautiously follow bearish order flow. At least wait prize to mitigate 4H supply ranges. For longs, ideal to wait for 4H candle closure above 1.08382
by alplaila
EUR/USD Set to Challenge Record Lows? In the week following my initial analysis, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a significant decline of over 100 pips, reinforcing the bearish sentiment previously discussed. This movement has been fundamentally driven, particularly following the ECB's decision last week to cut rates by 25 basis points, which aligned with pre-announcement expectations. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank has shifted to a once-per-meeting pace of rate cuts, placing additional pressure on the Euro. From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains intact. As noted earlier, the DXY (Dollar Index) has been on an upward trajectory since September 30, supported by what is being termed the "Trump trade." This theme is likely to persist through the week, as traders reassess potential outcomes ahead of the November 5 voting day. The anticipation of higher fiscal spending and tariffs under a center-right government tends to favor the corporate sector and supports a stronger dollar, which could further exacerbate the pressure on the Euro. On the daily (D1) chart, an important support level at 1.0777 is currently in focus. The price action is approaching this support line, while the RSI indicates that the pair is deeply oversold. It will be crucial to observe the daily candlestick formation at the end of the trading day, as a strong close could signal either a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend. In summary, while the technical indicators continue to point to bearish momentum, fundamental factors are currently driving the market. The interplay between these elements will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
by XAUBanker
EURUSD: Selling strategy is preferred!EUR/USD continued to slide below 1.0800 during the European session on Wednesday. The major currency pair remained under pressure as the outlook for the Euro (EUR) deteriorated due to faster-than-expected inflation declines and rising risks of a Eurozone recession, fueling speculation of more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). EUR/USD was also pressured by a rally in the USD. The US dollar gained amid political uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election and strong expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing cycle will be more gradual than previously expected. Trend-wise, the bearish bias remains dominant across most timeframes and the short strategy remains the dominant style. Happy trading and good profits!
Short
by Bentradegold