Eurusd-4
XAU/USD : IMPORTANT Pre Market Analysis (READ THE CAPTION)Currently, the price of gold is hovering around **$2656.99**. Recently, gold has seen a slight increase, driven by several factors such as inflation concerns, recent CPI and PPI reports, and geopolitical tensions.
Key Influencing Factors:
1. Persistent Inflation: Recent CPI and PPI reports show that inflation remains slightly above expectations, keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset.
2. Interest Rates: Expectations around interest rate cuts have stabilized, which increases gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global political instability, particularly in regions like the Middle East, is adding upward pressure to gold prices.
Technical Analysis:
• Resistance Level: If gold prices break above $2685, there could be further bullish momentum.
• Support Level: On the downside, key support zones include $2636-$2642, $2628-$2630, and $2620, which should be closely monitored if the price declines, as strong demand in these areas could lead to a reversal.
Outlook:
Given the economic and geopolitical landscape, gold remains in a bullish trend. Traders should keep an eye on economic reports and geopolitical developments as any increase in uncertainty could further boost gold's price.
This sets the stage for today’s market session, with potential for continued upward movement.
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EURUSDEURUSD price is near the support zone 1.08297-1.07970. If the price cannot break through the 1.07970 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
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EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 18.10.202415m Swing, Internal and Fractal Bearish and we are now testing fractal supply. We might get a bearish momentum to kick in from here or price could target deeper levels to mitigate premium supply zone
For shorts it makes sense to follow Bearish order flow.
For longs ideal to wait 4H Internal ( or 15m Swing ) to shift bullish
I have already mentioned couple of times that we could get fake breaks as we are in unmitigated daily demand range now and we already had fake bullish 4H ChoCHs. This could be to target unmitigated supply zones. Wait for strong bullish momentum to play longs.
EURUSD Stays In Downtrend After ECB Cut RatesThe Euro is weak across the board after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as expected. More importantly, Christine Lagarde noted that data suggests the economy in the Eurozone is weakening, which means there could be more rate cuts on the table in the future. However, this will depend on upcoming data, as noted by the ECB President. Looking at the wave counts, we are definitely seeing a bearish impulse. The only question is whether we will still see a fourth wave rally, or if higher ABC recovery will show up. In either case, there should be more weakness after the next bounce, which I will track closely for potential shorts. Strong resistance is definitely around 1.09 to 1.0950.
Grega
EURUSD Bullish trade idea from 1.08071 - 1.07841.EURUSD Bullish trade idea from 1.08071 to 1.07841.
The Price already tested the zone at 1.08137 and pushed back with price rejections and a strong confirmations candle.
As per the DXY (Dollar Index) last fall will also positively affect the price; the proper setup will also have a proper stop loss behind the 1.07816 level because last time market moved a fake breakout of structure in August 24 which also mentioned.
The target level will be 1.10013 to 1.10654.
When taking an entry on the Euro, please place a stop-loss and take 1-2 % risk on your account balance.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 18, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD broke its four-day losing streak, trading near 1.0840 during the Asian session on Friday. However, the US dollar (USD) received support and hit a two-month high of 103.87 on Thursday, helped by a good US retail sales report, which fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may go for a nominal rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another cut in December.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, exceeding both August's 0.1% increase and market expectations for a 0.3% increase.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 in the week ended October 11, the largest decline in three months. Total claims fell to 241,000, well below the 260,000 expected.
However, the euro faced downward pressure following Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ECB cut its main refinancing operations rate and deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.40% and 3.25%, respectively.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0860, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.
EURUSD sellEur vs Us dollar we expecting a pull back to Daily Resistance trendline and as we are putting our idea EUR vs US dollar having a bull run over to its trendline we are expecting a rejection from there and a Drop to its Support under lying Suppot level remember its a Bearish trend and following its technical data
#EURUSD - 18 OctI was away and while I was still looking at the indices, it was not so much for FX but I do know how USDJPY is rallied, and how DXY is strong. It was much interesting how indices continued to be strong but at the same time, DXY gained so much strength too. But if we look at the weekly candle, we can see how bearish EURUSD was from 3 weeks back, with the bearish engulfing candle, and from then on, EURUSD just almost just trend down from then; there is pretty much nothing bullish on daily but trying to catch any bottom from here would much be disastrous.
However, for today, especially after yesterday's sell down, almost to the strong level, and then a quick rebound, IMO, EURUSD has a chance to go to 1.0864 before a move lower. And 1.0864 is a confluence of level and my algo band and also a trendline resistance. A break above 1.0864 IMO will bring further recovery in EURUSD.
EURUSD : Preferred sales strategy.Analysis:
Pattern Breakdown: The price has broken below the rising trendline, confirming a bearish sentiment.
Resistance Zone: There's a highlighted zone around 1.0950 – 1.1000, where a previous support level is now acting as resistance.
Support Target: The chart suggests a potential move down towards the key support area around 1.0790.
Trading Strategy:
Sell Opportunity: If EUR/USD retests the resistance zone (1.0950 – 1.1000) and fails to break above, this presents a selling opportunity.
Target: The initial target would be the 1.0790 level, which is a key support area and the next significant downside target.
Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above the 1.1000 level to manage risk in case of a reversal.
Eurozone CPI falls below 2%, and ECB cuts further by 25bp
The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021.
The ECB has implemented an additional 0.25% rate cut due to slowing economic growth and falling inflation. The ECB stated that the deflation process is proceeding smoothly and anticipates gradually easing labor cost pressures. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that future rate direction in December will be contingent on upcoming economic data.
EURUSD is still in a downtrend, falling to 1.0830. The gap between both EMAs widened, and the price broke the 1.0830 threshold, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD continues its downtrend within the descending channel and breaks the support at 1.0780, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.0940.
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
EURUSD short term relief rebound is expected.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down on the (1h) time frame.
The price hit its bottom and is consolidating, being oversold on the RSI (1h).
This consolidation usually leads to a short term rebound to the 0.5 Fib and MA50 (1h).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08550 (the 0.5 Fib and potential contact with the MA50 (1h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has formed the exact same sequence it did on October 10th. That was also a bottom that led to a 0.5 Fib/ MA50 (1d) test.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024 might seem ambitious given current trends, but let's delve into why this could indeed happen:
Economic Recovery in the EU: Recent posts on X highlight expectations around the ECB's monetary policy. If the European Central Bank continues to adjust rates in response to economic recovery signals, a stronger Euro might follow. Discussions around inflation cooling off and potential rate adjustments suggest a more robust Eurozone economy, which traditionally supports a higher EUR/USD rate.
Political Stability and Sentiment: With the U.S. political landscape shifting due to the Democratic nomination of Kamala Harris for the 2024 election, there's a narrative shift. While not directly economic, political stability or perceived changes in policy direction can influence currency strength. If her campaign promises economic policies that might strengthen the Euro against the Dollar, this could be a psychological boost for EUR/USD.
Market Sentiment and Speculation: There's noticeable chatter on platforms like X about EUR/USD movements. Speculation can drive markets; if traders and investors start betting on a stronger Euro due to any positive economic data or geopolitical shifts, this speculative buying could push the rate towards 1.11.
Technical Analysis: Some analysts have pointed out key resistance and support levels. Breaking through these levels, especially with momentum, could set new targets. If EUR/USD manages to convincingly breach the 1.09 resistance and maintain that level, the next psychological target becomes 1.10, with 1.11 not far beyond in terms of market psychology.
Interest Rate Differentials: If the ECB's rate adjustments lead to a narrowing of the interest rate differential with the Fed, capital flow might favor the Euro more, pushing its value up against the Dollar. Given historical trends, even a small change in rate expectations could significantly impact the forex market.
Global Economic Factors: Broader economic conditions, like improvements in European trade balances, could bolster the Euro. If the EU manages to show resilience or growth in sectors previously affected by global downturns, this could reflect positively on the EUR.
Seasonal Trends and Market Calendar: There's often a lull before the end-of-year where markets might move based on year-end portfolio adjustments. If there's a sentiment that the Euro will strengthen, this could be the period where movements towards 1.11 get traction due to year-end positioning.
EUR-USD Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD keeps falling
Down but the pair will soon
Hit a horizontal support
Level of 1.0780 from
Where we will be expecting
A local bullish rebound
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
EUR/USD Breakdown – Quick Bounce or Headed for a Wipeout?Alright, trading family, the EUR/USD pair is riding some choppy waters. A short bounce to 1.0809 might be in the cards, but don’t get too comfy—it could just be a quick breather before we dive back toward 1.0700 or even deeper to 1.0645 or 1.0580.
Key Levels:
Breakdown Zone: 1.0700 – Looks like the next wave if sellers keep control.
Bounce Play: 1.0809 – Bulls might show up, but it could be a short ride.
Lower Support: 1.0645 / 1.0580 – If the tide turns, this is where we might land.
This is one of those "stay ready" moments—either we catch a quick rally or the tide pulls us lower. Keep an eye on those short time frames to catch the next set.
What’s your vibe—are we bouncing or heading straight into the deep? Drop your thoughts, follow, and share if this chart got you set for the next move.
Mindbloome Trader
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June.
The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively.
This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well.
In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years.
While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025.
Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing.
The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
Euro got no backboneGuess what... I believe the EURUSD pair is ready for a sell. My decisions to enter a trade are primarily based on my intuitive assessment of the market. While I do rely on certain patterns that have proven effective for me, the actual execution of a trade is often based on a gut feeling—whether or not I like what I see at that moment. However, this particular setup has got me thinking on a more macro level. In my opinion, the USD is on its way to strengthening. With stocks and cryptocurrencies currently trading at such high valuations, I anticipate that a sell-off in these assets could increase USD volume as people take profits and hold cash. I also see potential in buying other USD pairs. I could be wrong, but the EURUSD pair fortunately offers a positive swap fee for sellers, and I’m in no rush—I have plenty of time to see how this plays out.
EURUSD: Long Trading Opportunity
EURUSD
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.0816
Stop Loss - 1.0753
Take Profit - 1.0947
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Bullish Butterfly EURUSD DailyLooks like EURUSD is forming a Bullish Butterfly pattern as the Dollar strengthens across most pairs. I'm looking for the pair to continue decline into support around 1.0575-1.0675, consolidate and possibly dead cat bounce before proceeding towards the 1.05 range. I'm also looking for the 14-period RSI to enter oversold territory during this time, which I project may go through the end of November.
I'm currently already short, having racked up ~300 pips. My current stop loss is about 150 pips trailing.
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.08508
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EUR-USDThis EUR/USD chart shows a recent decline after reaching a resistance level around 1.12137, forming a double-top pattern that suggests a trend reversal. The price has since dropped sharply and is approaching a significant "Order Blocker" zone between 1.07515 and 1.08022, where institutional buying may occur.
If the price holds in this area, a potential bounce toward the 50% retracement level near 1.1000 could happen, indicating a bullish correction. However, if the price breaks below this zone, further bearish momentum could push it toward the next support at 1.0715.
In summary, the market is currently bearish, but the reaction at the "Order Blocker" will determine whether a reversal or further decline is likely. Traders should monitor this key zone closely.
