EURUSD: watch for NFPThe release of PCE data was the one closely watched by markets during the previous week. Released data show that the PCE Price Index reached 0,3% in January for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis, which was in line with market expectations. The core PCE also reached o,3% in January. The personal income was higher by 0,9% for the month and personal expenditures decreased by -0,2% in January, compared to the previous month. As for other macro data posted for the US, the new home sales dropped by -10,5% in January compared to the previous month. This drop was much higher from expected -2,6%. The Durable goods orders were higher by 3,1% in January, higher from market estimate of 2%. The second estimate of the GDP Growth rate for Q4 was standing at 2,3% for the quarter, and was in line with market expectations.
The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in February reached 85,2 which was in line with market expectations. The inflation rate in the Euro Zone in January reached 2,5%, while core inflation was standing at 2,7%. These were final inflation figures for January and there was no difference from market expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in March reached -24,7 which was a bit higher from forecasted -21,4. The Retail Sales in Germany increased by 0,2% in January, leading to an increase of 2,9% on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany in January was standing without change from the previous month at 6,2%. The preliminary inflation rate for February in Germany was 0,4%, leading to a yearly rate of 2,3%. Both figures were in line with market forecasts.
Previous week was challenging for financial markets, with a major correction dragging the value of assets toward the downside. US Treasury yields also reacted to the news on potential tariffs. The price of the US Dollar was also under general market sentiment influence, so it was a bit of a mixed trading week. The eurusd currency pair started the week by testing the 1,5 resistance line, reaching the highest weekly level at 1,052. However, the week-end brought some correction toward the downside, so the currency pair ended the trading week at the level of 1,037. The RSI reached its highest level at 59, but ended the week around the level of 45. Moving average of 50 days stopped with divergence from MA200, but the convergence did not start yet, hence, the potential cross is still far away.
Markets will use the week ahead to digest all the data from the previous week, especially about trade tariffs, and find a new equilibrium. It should be considered that the Non-farm Payrolls will be released during the week ahead, which might bring back some volatility. As per current charts, some potential levels for the week ahead for eurusd currency pair would be between levels 1,04 and 1,05. Currently charts are more bullish than bearish for eurusd. Still, just in case that the currency pair clearly breaks the current 1,036 level, then the next stop might be at 1,028. However this scenario has a lower probability of occurrence.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate flash for February in the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February, HCOB Composite PMI final for February for both Germany and the Euro Zone, ECB Interest Rate Decision on March 6th, ECB Press conference after the ECM meeting,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, ISM Services PMI for February, Non-farm Payrolls for February, Unemployment rate for February, Fed Chair Powell speech on March 7th.
Eurusd-4
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum with 2.04R ShortEUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum with 2.04R Short Opportunity
Current Market Structure
The EUR/USD is displaying a clear bearish trend across multiple timeframes, with price action showing lower highs and lower lows since late 2024. Analysis of the charts reveals:
Daily timeframe: Sustained downtrend since October 2024, with price currently testing resistance near 1.0380
4-hour timeframe: "Confirmed" bearish alignment with both the 8 EMA and 21 EMA positioned below the 55 EMA
1-hour timeframe: Similar bearish configuration, reinforcing the short bias
EMA System Confirmation
The proprietary EMA System Status indicator demonstrates strong bearish conviction:
240 Signal: Bearish
240 Trend: Bearish
Alignment: Confirmed
This triple confirmation suggests high-probability conditions for short entries.
Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
1.0300: Psychological round number
1.0230: Recent swing low and profit target
1.0200: Major psychological support
Resistance Levels:
1.0400: Key resistance zone with 200 EMA confluence
1.0430: Stop placement zone above recent swing high
1.0500: Major psychological resistance
Correlation Analysis
Supporting the bearish thesis, the DXY (Dollar Index) shows a complementary bullish structure with:
Confirmed bullish alignment on the 4-hour timeframe
Recent break above the 107.00 resistance level
Bullish momentum in MACD
This inverse correlation adds significant weight to the EUR/USD short setup.
Trade Parameters
Entry Strategy:
Short at 1.03632
Stop Loss at 1.04287 (65.5 pips)
Profit Target at 1.02296 (133.6 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.04
Risk Management:
1% account risk allocation
0.5 lot position size
$500 risk per trade (on $50,000 account)
Potential profit: $1,019.85
Technical Confluence Factors
Several factors align to support this trade setup:
Price rejecting at 55 EMA resistance on multiple timeframes
MACD showing bearish momentum and alignment
Weekly and daily session boundaries reinforcing resistance zones
Recent higher timeframe rejection of the 200 EMA
Market Timing Considerations
The European and US economic calendars should be monitored for:
ECB monetary policy statements
Federal Reserve commentary
US dollar-impacting economic data releases
Conclusion
The EUR/USD presents a high-probability short opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio of 2.04. All key technical indicators align bearishly across multiple timeframes, with strong correlation confirmation from the DXY. This setup fits the criteria for a "Confirmed" signal within our trading system, meeting our standards for trade execution.
Trade management will follow our established protocol with potential scaling out at interim support levels and trailing stops implemented once price moves beyond the 1:1 risk-reward ratio point.
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
With the Friday's turmoil in the White House,
EURUSD went down sharply.
The price broke and closed below a significant daily support.
It is a strong event that increases the probabilities that the market
will continue going lower.
Next support will be 1.032
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Supply and Demand Zones Trading in Forex: A Detailed OverviewSupply and demand zones are a core concept in price action trading, helping you spot areas of strong buying or selling interest. Mastering these zones can help you predict reversals, breakouts, and continuations with high accuracy. Let’s dive in! 🚀
🧠 What are Supply and Demand Zones?
📉 Supply Zone (Bearish): An area of high selling pressure where price tends to drop. It forms when sellers overwhelm buyers.
📈 Demand Zone (Bullish): An area of high buying pressure where price tends to rise. It forms when buyers overpower sellers.
These zones act like magnets for price — when price returns to these levels, you often see strong reactions.
🗂️ Characteristics of Strong Zones
✅ Sharp Price Movement: Strong supply and demand zones create fast and aggressive price moves away from the area. 💥
✅ Multiple Rejections: The more times a zone holds and rejects price, the stronger it is. 🛑
✅ Freshness: The first retest of a fresh zone often yields the strongest reaction. 🆕
✅ Volume Spike: Higher volumes show genuine interest from large players. 📊
🎯 How to Identify Supply and Demand Zones
1️⃣ Find Strong Moves: Look for big bullish or bearish candles after a consolidation or small pullback.
2️⃣ Mark the Base: Draw a rectangle from the start of the strong move to the end of the consolidation.
3️⃣ Adjust for Wick/Body: Include the entire wick for aggressive zones or just the body for conservative zones.
📈 Bullish Supply and Demand Zone Strategies
1️⃣ Demand Zone Bounce (Buy Setup)
🛑 Identify: A clear demand zone with a strong bullish move away.
📉 Wait: For price to return to the zone.
🕯️ Confirm: With a bullish candlestick pattern (like Hammer, Engulfing).
🎯 Enter: A buy order at the zone’s edge.
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below the zone’s low.
🏁 Target: Nearest supply zone or strong resistance.
💡 Example: Price rallies from 1.2000, pulls back to the same zone, then forms a bullish engulfing — you buy.
2️⃣ Demand Zone Breakout (Continuation Setup)
🛑 Identify: A demand zone forming a higher low in an uptrend.
💥 Breakout: Wait for price to break the supply zone above.
📉 Retest: When price retests the broken supply (now demand), enter long.
💡 Example: Price breaks 1.2500 resistance, retests it, and bounces higher — you enter.
📉 Bearish Supply and Demand Zone Strategies
3️⃣ Supply Zone Rejection (Sell Setup)
🛑 Identify: A clear supply zone with a strong bearish move away.
📈 Wait: For price to return to the zone.
🕯️ Confirm: With a bearish candlestick pattern (like Shooting Star, Engulfing).
🔻 Enter: A sell order at the zone’s edge.
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above the zone’s high.
🏁 Target: Nearest demand zone or strong support.
💡 Example: Price spikes up to 1.3000, then drops sharply — on a retest, you short.
4️⃣ Supply Zone Breakout (Continuation Setup)
🛑 Identify: A supply zone forming a lower high in a downtrend.
💥 Breakout: Wait for price to break the demand zone below.
📈 Retest: When price retests the broken demand (now supply), enter short.
💡 Example: Price breaks 1.1800 support, retests it, and drops further — you enter short.
🛠️ Tools to Enhance Supply and Demand Trading
🧰 Support & Resistance Levels – Combine zones with horizontal levels for added confluence.
📐 Fibonacci Retracements – Zones aligning with Fibo levels are extra strong.
📉 Trendlines – A zone break + trendline retest makes a powerful entry signal.
📊 Volume Analysis – High volume confirms genuine buying or selling pressure.
⏳ Timeframes & Zone Strength
⏱️ Higher Timeframes (4H, Daily, Weekly):
Stronger & more reliable zones.
Great for swing trading.
⏱️ Lower Timeframes (5M, 15M, 1H):
More frequent but weaker zones.
Ideal for day trading or scalping.
⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Forcing trades: Not every zone gives a valid signal — be patient.
❌ Ignoring context: Always follow the trend unless there’s clear reversal evidence.
❌ Skipping confirmation: Wait for candlestick patterns and rejections.
❌ Poor risk management: Always set a stop loss and manage position size.
GBP/USD March 2025 Technical Outlook: Bearish Pressure below 200What do you think about GBPUSD
It has broke the trend and in my observation it will be more downward
**Trend Direction (EMA 200):**
- The price (1.25756) is trading **below** the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a **bearish bias**. The EMA likely acts as dynamic resistance near 1.26131 or higher, reinforcing the downtrend.
**Critical Levels:**
- **Resistance Levels:**
- Immediate: **1.26131** (likely the 200 EMA level).
- Stronger: **1.2689** (key swing high).
- **Support Levels:**
- Near-term: **1.25000** (psychological round number).
- Lower: **1.24215** and **1.24000** (next targets if bearish momentum continues).
GBP/USD Trendline Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3 - 7)The GBP/USD Pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2425
2nd Support – 1.2316
🎁 Please hit the like button and
🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
USD/JPY Channel Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/JPY pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 153.90
2nd Resistance – 155.60
🎁 Please hit the like button and
🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
EURUSD Potential Short Setup - 1HR Swing TradeThis trading idea proposes a short position in EURUSD on the 1-hour timeframe, based on the expectation of a continued downward move. The entry point is strategically located at a resistance level, with a stop-loss order to manage risk and a take-profit target set at a potential support zone.
Disclaimer :
This analysis is based on the provided image and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
EUR/USD: Is History Repeating? Key Levels to Watch NowHey Realistic Traders, Will FX:EURUSD Repeat its Bearish Cycle? Let’s dive into the analysis...
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading below the 200-day EMA once again, signaling that the bearish trend is still in play. This downward movement has been reinforced by a rising wedge breakout, a common pattern that often leads to further declines.
Just a few days ago, we spotted a similar bearish breakout in FX:EURUSD , which resulted in a continued drop. As traders, we follow the Dow Theory principle: "History Repeats Itself ." Based on this idea, we expect the price to follow the same pattern, keeping the bearish momentum intact.
Looking ahead, EUR/USD could move lower toward the first target at 1.02861 and, if selling pressure continues, potentially reach the second target at 1.02205. These targets are based on previous price movements and key historical support levels.
However, this bearish scenario depends on the price staying below the critical stop-loss level at Stop Loss 1.05039
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: “Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on FX:EURUSD ”.
EURUSD: Bearish Wave Continues to Dominate!EURUSD continued its downward trajectory on Thursday, losing nearly 0.9% and slipping below the key 1.0400 support level for the first time in nearly two weeks. The decline was driven by strong USD buying pressure across the market.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed the 107.00 level, reaching a fresh six-day high, supported by a modest uptick in both U.S. and German bond yields. The dollar’s strength reflects ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs and fresh doubts about the health of the U.S. economy, following weaker-than-expected economic data in recent days. These factors have weighed heavily on EURUSD.
From a technical perspective, the pair has broken below an ascending trendline, confirming a shift in momentum towards the downside. This reinforces the bearish outlook, as no clear bottom formation has been established yet. If EURUSD stages a recovery, it is likely to encounter resistance near the confluence zone of the EMA 34, EMA 89, and the newly formed resistance area, which could trigger renewed selling pressure. For now, the bearish bias remains intact, with further downside potential unless a decisive recovery above the resistance zone materializes.
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear friends,
EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.0488 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0411
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.0535
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/USD Potential Rebound – Short-Term Buy Opportunity?Analysis & Description:
The EUR/USD pair has experienced a strong bearish move, pushing the price down to a key support zone near the lower Bollinger Band. A potential bounce-back scenario is forming, as indicated by the setup.
Key Observations:
✅ Bollinger Band Support: Price touched the lower band, suggesting a possible short-term reversal.
✅ Recovery Setup: The chart outlines a bullish recovery with a target around 1.04128 - 1.04169.
✅ Risk-Reward Setup: Stop-loss positioned below the recent low to manage risk effectively.
Trading Plan:
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A successful hold of the support zone could lead to a move toward 1.04169, marking a possible short-term bullish opportunity.
⚠️ Bearish Risk:
If the price breaks below the recent low, the bullish idea could be invalidated, leading to further downside.
Final Thought:
EUR/USD might see a temporary relief rally after the recent drop. A cautious long entry near support could be an opportunity, but traders must manage risk carefully! 🚀📊
EUR/USD Rejection at Key Resistance – Bearish Drop Incoming?EUR/USD 4H Chart Analysis 📉🔥
Key Observations:
Resistance Zone (Supply Area) 🚨
Price has tested a strong resistance level (marked by the shaded box) near 1.0500.
Multiple rejections in this area suggest selling pressure is strong.
Potential Reversal Setup 🔄
The price has wicked into resistance and started showing weakness.
A lower high structure could be forming, indicating a possible trend shift.
Bearish Outlook 🐻📉
A break below recent support would confirm a sell-off targeting the lower price range.
The chart suggests a potential move towards 1.0350 - 1.0300 levels.
The 200 EMA (1.0425) is acting as dynamic support, but a break below it will accelerate the drop.
Liquidity Grab & Stop Hunt 🎯
Price action could have trapped buyers before reversing.
A potential stop-loss hunt above the previous highs before a drop.
Trading Plan 💡
✅ Sell Bias: Look for confirmations like bearish engulfing candles or break below 1.0450.
❌ Invalidation: A clean breakout above 1.0510 cancels the bearish setup.
🎯 Target Levels: 1.0350, 1.0300.
🔥 Final Verdict: Bearish setup forming. Watch for breakdown confirmation! 🚀
HelenP. I Euro will correct a little and then continue move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. On this chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the trend line and started trading within a triangle pattern. Shortly after, EURUSD climbed to the support level, which aligned with the support zone, broke through it, and continued moving higher. Later, the Euro reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, briefly entered this area, but quickly reversed and began to decline. In a short time, the price dropped back to the trend line before rebounding again. It then moved up toward the resistance zone and started ranging around the 1.0485 level. Some time later, the Euro fell to the trend line once more, eventually breaking below it, which led to a breakout from the triangle pattern. At the same time, it also dropped below the 1.0485 level. After that, the price declined to the support level but has recently started to recover. Given this, I anticipate a correction followed by a continuation of the upward movement toward the resistance level. For this scenario, I’ve set my goal at the 1.0485 resistance level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURO - Price can make small correction and then bounce upHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago, the price bounced from support line and rose to resistance area, after which it started to fall.
In a short time, price declined to support line and then it made a strong gap, breaking support line.
After a gap, Euro made an upward impulse, breaking $1.0300 level, and then turned around and madea correction.
Next, price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it rose to resistance area again and then bounced down.
Then it in a short time rose back and broke $1.0480 level and now price trades inside resistance area.
I think that Euro can bounce up from resistance area to $1.0580 points inside a rising channel.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Kingprotrader: Gold Spot (USD) 1H: Bearish Momentum
1. **Current Price & Movement:**
- Gold is trading at **2,861.880 USD**, down **0.53%** (-15.290) in the past hour.
- Short-term bearish momentum is evident, but key support/resistance levels should be monitored for trend confirmation.
2. **EMA (200, close) Analysis:**
- The listed EMA values (2,954.172 to 2,861.880) are descending, indicating a **downtrend** over the 200-period horizon.
- The current price aligns with the **200 EMA (2,861.880)**, suggesting this level is acting as **dynamic support/resistance**. A sustained break below could signal further downside, while a rebound might hint at a trend reversal.
3. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Support**: **2,825.000** (critical level to watch; a breach could accelerate selling pressure).
- **Upper Resistance Levels**: 2,900.000 and 2,921.335 (potential targets if price reverses upward).
5. **Conclusion:**
- **Bearish bias** dominates due to the descending EMA structure and recent price decline.
- Monitor the **200 EMA (2,861.880)** and Risk management (stop-losses) is critical due to volatility.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday.
Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300
EURUSD - Bullish No More!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel, however it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, the red zone is the upper bound of its weekly range.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the structure and upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.