Eurusd-4
EURUSD 28 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US PCE Day! EOM FlowsThis is my Intraday analysis on FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Heavy economic news:
EU : German Prelim CPI m/m
US : the most awaited report Core PCE Price Index m/m - Personal Spending m/m - Chicago PMI
The market sentiment detailed as following:
Trump's Tariff Announcements:
President Trump's announcements regarding new and increased tariffs significantly impacted market sentiment. Uncertainty surrounding trade relations with various countries, including the European Union, Mexico, and Canada, created volatility.
These tariff announcements created fears of trade wars, which negatively impacted investor confidence.
Economic Data:
Reports of declining new home sales in the U.S. and concerns about overall economic health contributed to market unease.
Also, the release of various economic data points, and the anticipation of the PCE inflation data release, influenced market movement.
NVIDIA's Performance and AI Competition:
While NVIDIA beat earnings estimates, concerns about increased competition from Chinese AI companies, particularly DeepSeek, led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader tech sector.
Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Geopolitical factors, such as the removal of Chevron's oil license in Venezuela, contributed to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil.
Bank of Japan governor Ueda's statements regarding the uncertainty of US policies also added to uncertainty.
Additional Factors:
Geopolitical Resolution: A sudden de-escalation in a prior crisis (e.g., eased tensions in a conflict zone) might have reduced safe-haven demand for gold, though this was secondary to dollar strength.
Technical Factors: End-of-month rebalancing or options expirations could have amplified downward moves.
The interplay of a hawkish Fed, a resilient dollar, and risk aversion triggered broad-based declines. The overarching theme was a recalibration of investor expectations around tighter monetary policy and its implications for global growth and asset valuations.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Adjusted my INT structure to align with the previous Bullish move)
🔹Complex Swing INT Structure
2️⃣
🔹As the Swing is Bullish, expectations were set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High and create a Bullish BOS after the Deep Pullback to the Swing Demand.
🔹During the Swing Bullish Continuation after the Deep Pullback, INT Structure kept holding Bullish to fulfill the Bullish continuation phase.
🔹With price reaching the Swing Extreme Premium zone and the expectation of breaking the Weak Swing High, price failed 2 times and with the 3rd attempt it created a Bearish iBOS. This indicated that the Swing INT structure is Complex and the Daily/Weekly TFs are still in play.
3️⃣
🔹After the Bearish iBOS, we expect PB, there is no clear POI for price to initiate PB except the Liq. at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before mitigating the last clear 4H Demand.
🔹It’s not a must to reach these Liq. points as we already in a Daily partially mitigated Demand Zone and maybe some orders reside there. But Will need LTFs to show clear Bullish OF to confirm the 4H Bearish INT structure is staring the PB.
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish continuation till we have a clear Bullish OF. Also, keep in mind that Daily and Weekly are still Bearish and we may target the 4H Strong Swing Low to fulfill the Daily and Weekly move.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing structure turned Bearish with confirmed BOS. And after BOS we expect PB phase to start.
🔹We didn’t mitigate any HP POI/Liq. to initiate the Swing PB phase.
🔹Will need a clear INT Structure shift to Bullish with momentum in order to play the PB phase otherwise price will continue Bearish till the sweep of Liq. on the 4H TF at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before tapping the clear 4H Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bearish with cautious from the Swing PB phase that can start at any time.
🔹Also keep in mind the End of Month Flows and PCE report today.
General Market Analysis - SMC Point of ViewIn this video I go through an analysis of DXY, EURUSD, USDCHF, OIL, and BTC. I also delve into why I think some short-term manipulation is happening and share my narrative.
I am not fond of giving a long description here when I give my analysis in the video, so please enjoy and share your thoughts.
- R2F Trading
EURUSD Triangle Breakout Setup
The price is forming an ascending triangle pattern, with a strong resistance level at the top and a rising trendline acting as support. A potential breakdown from this structure could lead to a bearish move.
Key Levels:
📌 Resistance: 1.0580
📌 Support: 1.0440
Expected Scenario:
🔻 A rejection from resistance followed by a break of the trendline could trigger a drop towards 1.0400 and lower.
🔻 Watch for confirmation before entering short positions.
Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for a clear breakout below the trendline.
✅ Look for bearish retest before shorting.
✅ Stop-loss: Above recent highs.
✅ Target: 1.0400 & below.
📉 Bearish Bias unless price breaks above resistance.
EURUSD: Strong preference for selling strategy!Dear friends!
EURUSD continues to sustain losses below 1.0500 during the early trading hours on Thursday. The pair is under pressure due to the recovery of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) weakens following former US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on the European Union. This development has prevented EURUSD from making significant gains, keeping it limited below the 1.052 resistance level, marked by two recent peaks.
In the short term, EURUSD remains well-supported by bulls around the key support zone of 1.0462. However, this upward move appears to be a temporary consolidation before a potential strong decline, as indicated by the unchanged EMA 34 and 89 levels and a shift in momentum towards a bearish trend. My primary strategy focuses on selling, aiming for further downside if the support level is broken and a new resistance is established.
Wishing you successful trades and profitable opportunities!
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0373
1st Support: 1.0325
1st Resistance: 1.0464
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Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0376
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0327
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0458
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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EUR/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Key Support at 1.0330-1.0367Overview:
The EUR/USD 8-hour chart presents a bullish reversal scenario, with price retracing after breaking an ascending channel. The market is approaching a critical Fibonacci retracement zone (1.0367 - 1.0330), which aligns with a strong support level. A bullish rebound from this area could push price towards the supply zone near 1.0700.
Key Technical Analysis:
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Price recently broke below the ascending wedge, signaling a short-term bearish move.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.5 (1.0367) and 0.618 (1.0330) levels act as potential reversal zones.
Support Zone: The market is approaching a demand area where buyers are likely to step in.
Reversal Expectation: A bullish bounce from the Fibonacci zone could lead to a strong move back toward the previous resistance area (1.0700 - 1.0750).
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Look for a long position near 1.0367 - 1.0330 after bullish confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: 1.0500 (Short-term resistance).
🎯 Target 2: 1.0650 (Intermediate target).
🎯 Target 3: 1.0700 - 1.0750 (Major resistance).
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 1.0300 to minimize risk.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD is testing a crucial Fibonacci support zone, and if buyers step in, a strong rally toward 1.0700 is likely. Traders should watch for bullish confirmations before entering long positions.
📈 Bullish Bias – Watch for a Reversal from Key Support! 🚀
EURUSD Correcting – Another Fall Ahead?Today I want to analyze EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) for a 15-minute time frame and whether EURUSD is ready to fall or not.
EURUSD is moving in a Heavy Resistance zone($1.0537-$1.04500) . It also moves in the descending channel in the 15-minute time frame.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that EURUSD has completed its 5 downward waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . I expect corrective waves to end either in a descending channel or eventually at a Resistance zone($1.0493-$1.0480) .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Support lines in the coming hours, and if the Support lines break , we should expect a decline to at least 100_SMA(4-hour) .
Note: If EURUSD breaks the Resistance line, we can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EUR/USD Bearish Trigger: 1.0400 Break Targets 1.0323 & 1.0270
EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.0400 support—a key level also marking the lower boundary of its recent flat zone. A definitive break below this threshold could trigger a downside continuation, exposing Expect Level 1 (1.0323) and potentially Expect Level 2 (1.0270). Strong resistance near 1.0530 remains intact, reinforcing the bearish bias. As long as price remains below the broken trendline and fails to reclaim the flat-zone highs, sellers appear poised to drive the pair toward these lower Fibonacci-based targets.
GBPAUD - Catch This Massive 1600pip Swing Trade!GBPAUD is currently in a 335 ABC correction. We are in wave C now and expecting 5 waves.
For wave C, we've seen subwave 1 and currently in subwave 2. Expecting subwave 2 to complete soon. We'll be looking for a breakdown to confirm that subwave 3 has started.
We're expecting price to stay below invalidation so we'll be keeping our stops above that level for now and then moving it lower (above subwave 2) once subwave 3 has been confirmed.
Trade Idea
- Watch for completion of subwave 2
- Watch for lower timeframe trendline break, BOS etc, to confirm reversal
- once entered, keep stops above invalidation
- Targets: 1.92 (1000pips), 1.86 (1600pips)
As always, trade safe!
XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts:
1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February)
A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion)
Support Levels:
Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD
Indicators:
RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish.
MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals
Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact
2. Fundamental Drivers
Fed Minutes Impact:
The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold
Dollar Dynamics:
The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher
3. Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Case:
A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD
Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher
Bearish Risks:
Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD
Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains
4. Strategic Takeaways
Entry Points:
Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD
Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks
Risk Management:
Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility.
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EURUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0435
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.0464
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/USD - H1- Chart - Ascending Triangle (27.02.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0433
2nd Support – 1.0405
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We can see bearish move if price break trendline and RETESTwe can see bearish move if price break trendline and give pullback to resistance level and a bearish engulfing candlestick , without all combination don't look for trade
and if price continue increasing to the buy side then we need to break high and retest our support level and bullish engulfing candlestick
NO COMBINATION , NO TRADE
Euro can reach resistance level, break it and continue to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. A few days ago, the price entered a wedge pattern, where it immediately rebounded from the support line into the seller's zone. It then started to decline, quickly dropping to the 1.0355 support level, which aligned with the buyer's zone. Following this, the Euro experienced a sharp gap down, breaking out of the wedge and falling below the support level. However, it soon reversed direction and began to rise, reaching the support level again and breaking through it. After that, the Euro continued moving upward within the range formed by the resistance and support lines. It first corrected to the support line before making a strong push toward the support-turned-resistance level. After breaking it and completing a retest, the price climbed further to the resistance line. From there, it briefly pulled back before making another upward move, reaching the seller's zone, which coincided with a key resistance level. The price consolidated near this level for some time before dropping to the support line. However, not long ago, it rebounded and started to rise again. In this scenario, I expect the price to continue its upward movement toward the resistance level. If it manages to break through, a retest could follow before further growth. Based on this, I have set my TP at 1.0580. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
XAU/USD : Get ready for a new ATH, Towards $3000?! (READ)Gold's one-hour chart analysis confirms that the price has followed our previous forecast precisely, reaching the $2951 level as expected. Comparing the last five analyses highlights the accuracy of these projections.
Currently, after hitting $2951, gold is facing selling pressure and is trading around $2947. I anticipate a slight correction before another upward move.
Short-term targets: $2954 and $2956
Medium-term targets: $2966 and $2969
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DeGRAM | EURUSD lower volatilityEURUSD is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel, resistance level and upper trend line, which has repeatedly acted as a pullback point.
After the chart failed to form an ascending structure, the volatility decreased and after the chart returned under the dynamic resistance level and is currently holding under the important psychological level of $1.05.
We expect the pair to pullback to $1.03430 after consolidating under the supply zone.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD will continue to grow in the channelEURUSD is in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The price is holding the lower boundary of the supply zone.
The chart is still forming an ascending structure.
We expect the growth to continue in the channel, we believe that the chart will soon form an ascending top.
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