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Eurusd-4

EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels. In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week. Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual. Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USDCHF Bullish Flag: Breakout Potential Toward 0.92USDCHF is currently trading at 0.899 and forming a bullish flag pattern, signaling a potential breakout toward the 0.92 target. The bullish flag is a strong continuation pattern that occurs after a sharp upward move, followed by a consolidation phase. If the price successfully breaks above the flag’s resistance, it could trigger a new bullish wave, driving USDCHF higher. Technically, the bullish flag suggests that buyers are accumulating positions before the next breakout. A confirmed breakout above the flag’s upper trendline, with increased volume, could validate the uptrend. Traders should watch key resistance zones and look for strong bullish candlestick formations to confirm the breakout momentum toward 0.92. On the fundamental side, the US dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. If economic data from the US continues to show resilience, the dollar could gain further strength against the Swiss franc. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy stance, which has remained relatively dovish, could contribute to CHF weakness, supporting the bullish outlook for USDCHF. In summary, USDCHF is currently consolidating within a bullish flag, preparing for a potential breakout toward 0.92. A strong move above resistance, combined with bullish fundamentals, could accelerate the upside momentum. Traders should keep an eye on US economic data and risk sentiment to confirm the trade setup.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
EURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACKEURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACK FX:EURUSD (1/9) Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Germany’s election—Merz and CDU on top—gave the euro a quick jolt, up 0.44% to $1.0507 📈🔥. Markets dig the stability vibe, but it’s fading fast—let’s unpack this tussle! 🚀 (2/9) – ELECTION SPARK • Euro Bump: Hit $1.0530 overnight—election cheer 💥 • Markets: DAX futures up 1.2%, EUROSTOXX 50 +0.66% 📊 • Fade: Now at $1.0480—USD’s flexing back Brief lift—stability’s sweet, but not sticky! (3/9) – TECH TELLTALE • Resistance: $1.0500-1.0510 wall holds firm 🌍 • Support: $1.0470 pivot, then $1.0440 if it slips 🚗 • Charts: Double top whispers at $1.0530 🌟 Traders on X see a retreat—bearish juice brewing? (4/9) – USD PUSHBACK • Jobless Claims: Weak last week, USD softened a tad 📉 • Fed: No rush to cut—rates steady, Nvidia looms • Muscle: Dollar’s clawing back—ballast holds AMEX:USD ’s got grit—euro’s nudge ain’t enough! 🌍 (5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY • Volatility: PMI data, Nvidia earnings stir the pot ⚠️ • Sentiment: X split—liquidity grab or bear turn? 🏛️ • Levels: Below $1.0470 opens $1.0390 risk 📉 Quick sprint—can euro keep the pace? (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Election Lift: CDU win sparks euro hope 🌟 • Markets: European futures pop—optimism flows 🔍 • Cash: $1.0530 peak shows buyer guts 🚦 Euro’s got some spark—briefly lit! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: $1.0510 cap, USD fights back 💸 • Opportunities: PMI beats could push $1.0600 🌍 Will euro dodge the dollar’s jab? (8/9) – Euro’s election bump—what’s your call? 1️⃣ Bullish—Stability wins out. 2️⃣ Neutral—Blip, not a trend. 3️⃣ Bearish—USD takes the ring. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Euro spiked to $1.0507 on Germany’s vote—CDU’s steady hand 🌍🪙. Now $1.0480—USD’s got claws. Resistance bites, downside looms—blip or bust?
by DCAChampion
Bitcoin’s Wild Swings & Key Setups in Forex & Gold (#6)Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster over the past few days, and I’m sure many of you have had your stop losses hit. Let’s break down the reasons behind this volatility and what’s next. 📊 BTC – Expanding Triangle = High Volatility BTC was set to confirm an uptrend after breaking above $98,500, but then came the Bybit hack. 📌 What Happened? 🔻 On February 21, 2025, hackers stole $1.5 billion from Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet. 🔻 Attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, this triggered a market-wide sell-off. 🔻 BTC dropped, then settled into an expanding triangle. 📉 What’s important about this pattern? Support & resistance levels lose significance. Win rate drops, and volatility increases. High probability of stop hunts & fakeouts. 🚨 My approach? No trades inside the triangle. Long above $97,987 (4H) or after first confirmed higher high & low. Short below $95K (key support in 4H). 📊 DXY – Still in a Downtrend DXY continues its price correction, as we anticipated in previous breakdowns. 📌 Bias: Still bearish in the short term unless we reclaim 107.391. 📉 Until then, I remain focused on setups favoring a weaker USD. 🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Strong Trend, but Watch for Weakness Gold remains firmly in an uptrend, but some exhaustion signs are emerging. 📌 Trade Setup: ✅ Long Trigger (4H): Above 2945 ❌ Stop Loss: Below 2916.42 📌 Key Reminder: 🔹 A trader’s mindset must be separate from an analyst’s mindset. 🔹 Follow your strategy, take trades, and accept stop losses without emotional bias. 🔹 I’ll be posting an in-depth article on this today. 📈 EUR/USD – Setting Up for a Major Trend Shift? 📌 Daily Timeframe: EUR/USD has been in a strong downtrend but is now in a correction phase. A shift in trend is possible if we get a daily close above 1.05217. 📌 4H Trade Setup: ✅ Long Entry: Above 1.05198 ❌ Stop Loss: Below 1.04483 Final Thoughts ⚠ BTC is in a highly volatile phase – trade with caution. ⚠ DXY weakness favors long setups in EUR/USD and gold. ⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you. ⚠ Separate your trader mindset from your analyst mindset I’m Skeptic —trade smart, stay profitable. See you tomorrow.
by SkepticWise
1
EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest LevelEUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February The EUR/USD chart shows the euro rising above its previous February peak of 1.05155, set on the 14th. On one hand, the euro's strength is driven by Germany’s national elections over the weekend, where the opposition conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured victory as expected. Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz’s party can form a coalition government to implement much-needed economic reforms. On the other hand, the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since mid-December. According to Reuters, the dollar’s weakness is influenced by: → Shifting market perceptions of its value amid Trump’s tariff policies in global trade. → Declining US Treasury yields due to expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Chart Price movements form an upward channel (marked in blue), but the red arrow highlights bearish activity near resistance levels at: → The yearly high around 1.05333. → The median line of the channel. Given the lower liquidity at the start of trading, the initial breakout above the psychological 1.05000 level may have been false. Potential bearish pressure could push EUR/USD towards a support zone, including: → The 1.0400 level. → The lower boundary of a broader channel (marked in orange). If bulls intend to maintain their February momentum, signs of buying activity may emerge near the lower boundary of the blue channel. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
EUR/GBP: Key Support Test Amid Bearish PressureThe analysis of EUR/GBP as of February 24, 2025, presents an interesting technical outlook. The price is testing a key support area around 0.8297 after a modest recovery from the 0.8271 lows. The current setup suggests a potential reaction in this zone, with the possibility of a technical rebound towards higher levels or a more significant bearish breakdown. From a technical perspective, several key areas stand out: the upper resistance in the 0.8440-0.8460 range represents a critical level for a bullish recovery, while the lower support around 0.8265-0.8240 could act as a catalyst for further downside momentum if broken. Moving average analysis indicates persistent bearish pressure, with both the 50 and 200-period moving averages sloping downward. This reinforces the idea that, despite recent rebounds, the dominant trend remains bearish in the medium term. From a macroeconomic standpoint, expectations regarding the UK and Eurozone economic outlook are shaping the pair's direction. UK inflation is showing signs of recovery, providing some support for the pound, but uncertainties related to economic growth and Bank of England policies could hinder a sustained strengthening of the British currency. On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing challenges linked to growth stagnation, and the ECB may maintain an accommodative policy to stimulate the economy. These factors create an unstable balance that could lead to heightened volatility in the coming days. Technical forecasts suggest two possible scenarios: a temporary rebound towards 0.8340-0.8360 before another test of the lows or a direct break below 0.8265, which could open the door for a decline towards 0.8240-0.8220.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has bounced off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.0402 1st Support: 1.0293 1st Resistance: 1.0601 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2
EURUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0503, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 1.0532, a swing resistance that lines up with the 78.6% Fibo retracement. The stop loss is placed at 1.0481, a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
EURUSD’s zone of interest after German election Polls have now closed in Germany’s parliamentary elections. Exit polls indicate Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has secured a clear victory, positioning him as Germany’s next chancellor. The far-right AfD is projected to achieve its best result yet, currently in second place with 20.2%, nearly doubling its 2021 support. However, the Bundestag’s composition remains uncertain, and Merz has ruled out cooperation with the AfD. Prolonged coalition talks could lead to a government divided on economic recovery and international policy, which could be bearish for the euro. With this in mind, the 61.8% to 50.0% Fibonacci zone could be an area of interest (to begin with at least), which coincides with flattening longer moving averages.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0419 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 1.0373 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0508 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD Longs from 3hr demand zone My bias for EUR/USD (EU) aligns with my outlook on other dollar pairs, as the Dollar Index (DXY) has been trending lower, reinforcing the bullish momentum for EU, GU, and Gold. Currently, there’s a clean 3-hour demand zone that caused a break of structure to the upside—this is the move I’m looking to capitalize on. My expectation is for price to continue higher and target the pool of liquidity resting above. That said, if price shows a shift in character to the downside on the higher timeframes (HTF), I’ll reassess and look for potential opportunities to capitalize on that move instead. Confluences for EU Buys: ✅ Price is in a strong bullish trend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. ✅ The Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, supporting this bullish outlook. ✅ Liquidity above that price is likely to target. ✅ Clean 3-hour demand zone that remains unmitigated. Alternative Scenario: If price drops below the 3-hour demand zone, I’ll look for my next buy opportunity at the clean 6-hour demand zone around 1.03000, where price would be in a more discounted area. Stay sharp and trade smart—have a great trading week! 🤺
Long
by Hassan_fx
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level. However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
9
GOLD| Approaching Historic Highs Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyThe analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish trend, closing at approximately $2,939.41 on February 20, 2025, marking a 0.23% increase from the previous day. The recent high of $2,946.83 on February 19 indicates continued positive momentum, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and fears of potential trade wars, all of which have strengthened gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. The current momentum has pushed prices toward historic levels, with the potential to surpass $3,000, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining U.S. yields. The chart shows a key resistance zone around $2,960, with a potential retracement towards the $2,880 area, identified as the first major support level. The current price action suggests a possible pullback before another breakout attempt. If the price consolidates above $2,900, it could accelerate towards new highs, while a break below $2,880 may drive the price toward the next support level around $2,840. The overall outlook remains bullish, with investor interest fueled by global uncertainties and the increasing demand for gold as a hedge against economic risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/NZD Analysis: Market Uncertainty Amid Key Technical LevelsThe analysis of GBP/NZD shows recent volatility, with a close at 2.20571 on February 19, 2025, slightly down from the previous day, indicating a phase of market indecision. The previous trend saw moderate progression from February 16 to 18, supported by an increase in UK GDP, which temporarily strengthened the Pound. However, the absence of new economic data left the pair exposed to market sentiment, contributing to the decline on February 19. From a technical perspective, the chart highlights a strong resistance area between 2.21770 and 2.22180, a level that has rejected the price multiple times, suggesting that without a decisive breakout above this zone, the bullish trend may weaken. Conversely, a significant support area is located around 2.17616, a level that has already provided a positive reaction, pushing the price back up. The current price action shows a consolidation phase between these two key levels, with a recent structure of higher lows that could indicate an accumulation attempt before a potential bullish breakout. If the price manages to break above the upper resistance decisively, the next target would be around the recent highs in the 2.24000 area. On the other hand, a break below the 2.17616 support could trigger a decline towards the next key level at 2.15000, where an interesting liquidity zone is present. The combination of the recent positive GDP data and a more cautious market sentiment leaves the pair in a state of uncertainty, with a key reaction expected in the coming days depending on the holding or breaking of the main technical levels.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum and Key Support TestThe USD/JPY analysis as of February 18, 2025, shows a clear bearish structure, with the price breaking below key support levels, particularly around 152.70, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The February 17 close at 151.456 confirms the downward trend after the recent high of 154.79 on February 12, highlighting the weakness of the US dollar against the strengthening Japanese yen. The yen’s appreciation was driven by Japan’s unexpectedly strong GDP data, which showed an annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In contrast, the US dollar has been under pressure due to weak retail sales data and a general lack of bullish catalysts. The chart setup highlights a key demand zone between 150.50 and 151.00, where the price is showing an initial reaction, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the overall structure remains weak, and unless the price can stabilize above 152.50-153.00, the risk of further downside remains high. The next significant resistance lies between 154.50 and 156.00, an area with concentrated sell orders and a potential reversal point in case of recovery. Conversely, a break below 150.50 would open the way toward 148.00 and even lower levels, with a critical support zone around 146.00. The short-term trading range could remain between 151.00 and 155.00, with strong dependence on upcoming macroeconomic developments, particularly statements from the Bank of Japan and economic updates from the United States.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/JPY: Uncertainty and Bearish PressuresGBP/JPY has shown a volatile trend in recent sessions, with a combination of ups and downs highlighting a phase of uncertainty. The last closing on February 15, 2025, at 191.618 marks the beginning of a bearish trend after the doji on February 14. This movement reflects a complex dynamic, where macroeconomic and technical factors play a decisive role in price direction. The recent rebound was supported by positive UK GDP data, which helped the pound recover from bearish pressures over the past months. Notably, on February 12, a reversal of the bearish trend occurred, with GBP/JPY starting to regain ground due to an improvement in market sentiment. Additionally, the strengthening of US inflation negatively impacted the Japanese yen, pushing GBP/JPY up by 1.22% around February 12, driven by a weaker yen following the increased strength of the US dollar. However, despite these positive elements, the Bank of England’s monetary policy has introduced uncertainty, with a dovish stance fueling pressure on the pound. The interest rate cut has raised concerns about further depreciation, negatively affecting GBP/JPY. Added to this is the earlier decline in early February, triggered by disappointing UK economic data and expectations of further BoE interventions, which contributed to a widespread bearish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the price is currently in a consolidation phase between 187.610 and 193.120, with a structure suggesting a possible expansion of volatility in the coming weeks. The key resistance at 193.120 represents a critical obstacle for a potential continuation of the bullish trend, while support at 187.610 remains the main level to watch in case of renewed bearish pressure. A breakout above the 193.50 threshold could confirm further pound strengthening, while a break below 188.00 could reopen scenarios of weakness. With a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors in play, GBP/JPY’s trend remains subject to upcoming BoE decisions and the evolution of global economic conditions, making it crucial to monitor upcoming economic releases to determine the market’s direction.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
EURUSD: the PCE is coming Figures for US Building Permits in January were posted at the level 0,1% higher for the month in January, while the Housing Starts dropped by -9,8% in January. Existing Home sales in January dropped by -4,9% on the monthly basis, much higher from forecasted -1,7%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for February was at the level of 64,7 modestly lower from market forecast of 67,8. At the same time, inflation expectations were increased. The majority of US consumers are expecting inflation at the level of 4,3% while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5%, from 3,2% posted previously. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February in the Euro Zone reached the level of 24,2 and generally was in line with the market consensus. The same indicator for Germany was standing at the level of 26,0 and was higher from 20 expected by the market. The Producers Price Index in January in Germany was standing at 0,5% on a yearly basis, and -0,1% for the month. The Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone in February was at the level of -13,6 a bit better from market estimate of -14,4. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for February in Germany was at the level of 46,1, and a bit higher from market estimate of 45,5. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at 47,3 also a bit higher from estimated 47. Without official release of data which would point to inflation in the US, the eurusd currency pair was traded in a relatively short range during the previous week. The week started by testing the 1,05 resistance line. Without the strength to break it, the currency pair reverted a bit toward the downside, till the lowest weekly level of 1,04, where the support line lies. At the weekend it reverted again back toward the 1,05, but again without success to break this level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,045. The RSI is still moving above the level of 50, implying that the market is still more oriented toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is modestly slowing down its divergence from MA200, however, there is still a high distance between lines, in which sense, the potential cross is still not in store. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE indicator is scheduled for a release during the week ahead. Considering current market high sensitivity on inflation data, a higher volatility might be expected. At this moment, charts are showing that eurusd is traded to some extent sideways, between levels of 1,05 and 1,04. If the market manages to break the support line at 1,04 during the week ahead, then it could be expected to move toward the 1,03. In case that 1,04 manages to hold, then the currency pair will revert back toward higher grounds, and probably will surpass the 1,05 resistance line. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Ifo Business Climate for February in Germany, Inflation rate for January in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for March in Germany, Retail Sales in Germany in January, Unemployment rate in Germany in February, USD: Durable Goods Orders for January, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q4, PCE Price Index preliminary for February, Personal Income and Personal Spending
by XBTFX
Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex🔍 Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex: A Detailed Overview Divergence is a powerful concept in technical analysis — it helps spot potential trend reversals and momentum shifts. Let’s dive into the details with clear strategies and some visual flair! 🚀 🧠 What is Divergence? Divergence happens when price action and a technical indicator (like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic) move in opposite directions. This hints that the current trend is losing strength and a possible reversal is coming. 📈 Types of Divergence 🐂 Bullish Reversal Divergence (Buy Signal) Price: Makes lower lows ⬇️ Indicator: Makes higher lows ⬆️ Meaning: Sellers are losing momentum; buyers might take over soon. Signal: Potential uptrend reversal ahead. 🔑 Key Confirmation Tools: Support zone bounce 🛑 Bullish candlestick patterns (Hammer, Engulfing) 🕯️ Increased buying volume 📊 💡 Example Setup: RSI makes a higher low while price drops lower — prepare for a long (buy) position. 🐻 Bearish Reversal Divergence (Sell Signal) Price: Makes higher highs ⬆️ Indicator: Makes lower highs ⬇️ Meaning: Buyers are losing strength; sellers could take control. Signal: Potential downtrend reversal ahead. 🔑 Key Confirmation Tools: Resistance zone rejection 🚧 Bearish candlestick patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing) 🌑 Increased selling volume 📉 💡 Example Setup: MACD makes a lower high while price pushes higher — prepare for a short (sell) position. 🛠️ Best Indicators for Divergence Trading RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Tracks overbought/oversold conditions. 📊 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Measures momentum shifts. 💥 Stochastic Oscillator – Identifies trend strength and reversals. 🎢 🎯 Divergence Trading Strategies 1️⃣ Classic Divergence Strategy Spot bullish or bearish divergence. 🔍 Confirm with support/resistance levels. 🧱 Wait for a reversal candlestick pattern (like a Doji, Engulfing, or Pin Bar). 🕯️ Enter trade with a tight stop loss below support (for buys) or above resistance (for sells). 🎯 2️⃣ Divergence + Trendline Break Strategy Draw a trendline following the current trend. 📐 Spot divergence as the trend loses strength. 🚨 Wait for a trendline breakout for extra confirmation. 💥 Enter trade on the break and retest of the trendline. 💯 3️⃣ Divergence + Moving Average Strategy Spot divergence between price and indicator. 📉 Use a moving average (MA) like the 50 EMA or 200 EMA to confirm the trend shift. 📈 Buy when price crosses above the MA after bullish divergence. 💚 Sell when price crosses below the MA after bearish divergence. ❤️ ⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid 🚫 Ignoring confirmation: Always wait for candle closes or breakouts. 🚫 Forcing divergence: Only trade when divergence is clear. 🚫 Skipping risk management: Use a stop loss and position sizing. 🚫 Overtrading small timeframes: Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) offer more reliable signals.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
29