Euro can little grow more and then continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago started to trades inside the wedge, where it at once broke the 1.0790 level, which coincided with the seller zone but soon backed up to this area. Then the price continued to move up and later rose to 1.0840 points, but then EUR made a correction to support line of wedge. Then price turned around and started to grow to a resistance line of a wedge pattern and even made a gap, after which it exited from the wedge and turned around. Then prices made a downward impulse inside the triangle to the resistance area, breaking the 1.0790 level. After this movement, the EUR turned around and in a short time rose to the seller zone, after which turned around and dropped back. Also recently, the price broke the 1.0680 level and now it trades very close to the support line of the triangle pattern. In my opinion, the price can make move up to the resistance area and then continue to decline, even exiting from the triangle pattern. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0600 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Eurusd-4
EurUsd Analysis | Rebound in short term?The euro hit a 4-1/2-month low against the U.S. dollar as investors worried about possible U.S. tariffs which would hurt the euro area's economy. The greenback was within striking distance of the levels seen right after the U.S. presidential election against major currencies as markets focused on data and Federal Reserve speakers and waited for clarity about future U.S. policy. Analysts expect measures from President-elect Donald Trump to put upward pressure on inflation and bond yields while limiting the Fed's scope to ease policy.
However, they see investors trading on economic data and clues about the rate outlook before seeing what Trump's policies would actually be in practice. Market participants flagged that the sensitivity of the euro to the threat of higher U.S. import tariffs was evident late Friday, when media reported that Trump was lining up Robert Lighthizer, seen as a hawk on trade, to run his trade policy. However, two sources familiar with the matter said Lighthizer has not been asked by Trump to return to the agency overseeing trade policy.
That said, from a technical point of view, the pair is very interesting to follow in the short term, if we look at the 4H chart, we have reached a very important support area, so we do not exclude some bullish movement. If the pair will trigger a technical bounce it should do so with at least 3 legs, and in this case it could still form a bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern (not shown on the chart, but quite simple to imagine). The most speculative bulls are trying to take long positions on the resistance, the more cautious Traders could wait for the formation of the right shoulder taking a position with a stop loss under the Head.
Thanks for watching.
EURUSD The sell-off isn't over yet.The EURUSD pair is extending the sharp sell-off after the most recent bearish signal upon the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejection. This is practically the same sideways Zones we talked about almost a month ago (October 14, see chart below):
The price broke below the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line that was the last 'hope' for a bullish reversal and should now extend the bearish trend even lower. The 1D MA100 rejection was also a rejection on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and as you can see this is identical to the August 31 2023 rejection. That was half-way through a Channel Down (also starting from the Resistance Zone) that eventually targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on this pair, targeting 1.05300 (Fib 1.236 extension), unless the 1D RSI hits 25.00 (oversold), in which case take profit regardless, as this RSI reading preceded the October 03 2023 bottom.
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Levels discussed on 11th November Livestream11th November
DXY: Consolidating along 105, look for break out above 105.15 to reach high of 105.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5955 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 25 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2830 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.0660 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Buy 153.80 SL 40 TP 80
USDCHF: Buy 0.8790 SL 25 TP 80
USDCAD: Do Nothing
Gold: Could range between 2660 and 2644
EURUSD: Intraday Trend Reversal PatternFollowing the low established on Wednesday, 6th November 2024, we have observed a completed bullish wave structure. Subsequently, the price traded the low at 1.0682, forming a bearish completed wave pattern. Based on this price information, a bullish phase is anticipated in the next movement.
We are entering a buy position, anticipating increased buying momentum at 1.0682, which could propel the price past the nearest internal momentum high of 1.0727. If this trade materializes, 1.0824 will serve as our momentum high target.
Stop Loss: 1.0676
Happy Trading!
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to support area at 1.06749.Colleagues, the US presidential election has made some adjustments to the wave markup and I now believe price is in a contested position.
I think that the downward movement will continue and the price will update the lows, but for now I expect the price to reach the support area at 1.06749.
If the price updates this level - I will consider that the price is in a complex correction and I will look for a long position entry, but for now I prefer short positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Is Further Downward Movement Expected in EUR/USD?The EUR/USD pair has recently broken a significant uptrend line and fallen below a crucial horizontal support level on the daily chart. This initial downward movement was triggered by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. His consistent emphasis on prioritising the local economy has led the market to anticipate protective policies aimed at reducing imports, thereby strengthening the Dollar against the Euro.
From a technical perspective, current price action suggests increasing selling pressure, with the pair now approaching a critical support level at 1.0678. Below, we explore two potential scenarios for EUR/USD.
Scenario 1: Retracement to the 1.0780 Region Followed by a Subsequent Decline
Following the break of the uptrend line, the price may experience a pullback to retest the 1.0780 region, which is likely to act as resistance.
This 1.0780 level coincides with a confluence zone formed by the prior trendline and the previously broken horizontal support level, making it a significant area of interest for sellers.
Possible Sell Entry:
If the price exhibits signs of rejection upon reaching 1.0780, this could present an attractive selling opportunity, with initial targets set at the 1.0678 support level and subsequently at the 1.0470 region, as indicated on the chart.
Stop Loss : A protective stop loss could be placed slightly above 1.0830 to safeguard against a false breakout.
Scenario 2: Break Below the 1.0678 Support Level
The 1.0678 support level has been tested multiple times in recent sessions, rendering it a crucial point. A breach below this level would signify a potential continuation of the downward movement over the next few days.
A daily close below 1.0678 could amplify the likelihood of a steeper decline, setting the stage for the next support level around 1.0470.
Possible Short Entry:
If the price breaks below 1.0678, a short entry could be initiated with initial targets at 1.0610, and a final target positioned at the strong support level of 1.0470, which has been significant since October 2023.
Stop Loss : For this scenario, a stop loss could be positioned slightly above 1.0700 to avoid being affected by a false retest of the broken support.
Donald Trump's victory has instigated a downward shift in the Euro's value against the Dollar, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming days. Given that EUR/USD is currently at a critical juncture, both outlined scenarios present viable trading opportunities, contingent upon price action in the forthcoming sessions. Careful monitoring of the 1.0678 and 1.0780 levels will be essential for determining the pair’s future direction and validating potential entry points.
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EURUSD: markets favour USD, againThe US Presidential elections were the major event during the week for financial markets. Investors were satisfied with the elected candidate as almost all markets ended the week in green. The US Dollar also gained in strength. The FOMC meeting was somehow left in a shadow of the previous event. The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, which was widely expected by markets. As for other macro news posted during the previous week, the ISM Services PMI in October reached the level of 56, which was higher from market expectation of 53,8. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for November was standing at 73,0, higher from market estimate of 73.
Factory orders in Germany jumped to the level of 4,2% in October, which was significantly higher from market consensus of 1,5% and also from previous month of -5,4%. The HCOB Services PMI for October reached the level of 51,5 in Germany and 51,6 in the EuroZone, where both figures were modestly above market estimates. The Balance of Trade in Germany slowed down in September to the level of 17B Euro, from 21,4B posted for the previous month.
The US Presidential elections in combination with the Fed's another rate cut, pushed USD to the higher grounds, reaching 1,068 against euro at Wednesday trading session. After that, the currency pair reverted to test 1,08 resistance line, however, it ended the week at the level of 1,0718. The RSI is quite close to the oversold market side, however, at the level of 37, there is some space further for the downside, until the clear oversold side is reached. The moving average of 50 days is strongly converging toward the MA200 counterpart, suggesting that the cross might come in the near term.
Markets are currently favouring USD in expectation of the positive future results of the new US administration. Despite the current hype, some risks exist, which are mostly related to the fiscal side of the US economy and eventual inflationary pressures from introduction of tariffs on foreign goods, economists warn. As for the week ahead, the eurusd will spend time testing 1,07, a short term support line, with some probability that the currency pair might head toward the 1,06 support line, where it will end the current cycle. On the opposite side, a potential for a short term reversal holds. There is some probability that the resistance line at 1,08 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate in Germany final for October, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in November for both Germany and the Euro Zone, GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone in Q3, second estimate,
USD: Inflation rate in October, Producers Price Index in October, Fed Chair Powell speech, Retail Sales in October, Industrial Production in October
EURUSD - An In-depth Analysis (ICT Concepts)In this video I provide a more in-depth analysis for EURUSD, and how I go about analyzing the chart and coming to a conclusion if any.
The concepts I used are based on ICT's Concepts along with some of my own discoveries along the way.
I hope you find it insightful.
Happy trading.
- R2F
EURUSD h4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.0768, which is a pullback resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.0642 which aligns with the 127.2% Fibo extension
The stop loss will be at 1.0860, a pullback resistance level.
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EUR/USD: Euro Struggles Amid UncertaintyThe EUR/USD pair continued its decline for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.0720 during Monday's Asian trading hours. The pair was pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and political uncertainty in Germany.
If Trump's fiscal policies are implemented, they could boost investment, spending, and labor demand, raising inflation risks. This might lead the Fed to adopt more restrictive monetary policies, strengthening the dollar and further pressuring EUR/USD.
Currently trading near 1.07, the pair could decline further if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy. However, technical indicators hint at a potential mild recovery.
The near-term outlook for EUR/USD depends on signals from the Fed and ECB interest rates. While the ECB maintains its accommodative monetary policy, strong regional data or any Fed policy shifts could support a short-term rebound in EUR/USD, despite ongoing market volatility.
Potential bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0677
1st Support: 1.0615
1st Resistance: 1.0802
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#EURUSD - 11112024The sell level I gave on Thursday and which I re-iterate on Friday that EURUSD will go down first worked perfectly as it sold down to my price target. There was no buying reaction though from my decision level at 1.0740 as it closed near the lows but it is unable to make new lows.
As such, while I am cautiously bearish, I see a possible up move from here first. Thus look for short opportunities only between 1.0760/1.0780 for the move lower.
EURUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
EURUSD 10/11/24Last week’s shift in the EU bias changed our view from short to long. However, as we always say, high-impact fundamentals can move the market, sometimes in line with our bias and sometimes against it. In the case of the U.S. election, the result pushed prices lower. This happened because the USD gained significant strength when the new president was elected.
Now, we're back to our more favorable sell bias. With the recent shift lower, the higher timeframe aligns with this bias again, allowing us to target last week’s lows. We have several points to watch for a bearish shift: the supply area in the middle of our current range and the two highs at the top of the range from Friday’s 4:00 AM move. If these highs are taken, we expect price to sell off and continue down to our target lows.
There's a possibility of price moving up to the major high we’ve marked, but this is unlikely given our bearish bias. If this happens, we’ll still aim for the target low. A pullback would give us an even better position to sell into that low. As it stands, we have a relatively large fundamental range, so price may fluctuate within this range for some time.
Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0717
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0787
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
After breaking the trendline and support zone, this currency pair is now consolidating below the broken area. It’s expected that, after some fluctuations, it will continue to decline toward the specified support levels.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
EURUSD Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.071.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.059 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Practical Application of Order Blocks in Trading🔸In trading, especially in the context of institutional and supply-demand-based strategies, order blocks, imbalances, breakers, and entry points are all critical elements for spotting potential high-probability trade setups. Here’s a breakdown of each:
1. Order Blocks
🔸Definition: Order blocks are areas where large institutional orders (by banks, funds, etc.) are believed to have been placed, often leading to sharp price movements. These typically form after a period of consolidation, when a large entity enters the market to create momentum in a particular direction.
Types:
▪️Bullish Order Block: An area where institutions have placed buy orders, resulting in an upward price move. It’s generally identified by a down candle (in a bullish trend) before a strong upward move.
▪️Bearish Order Block: An area with concentrated sell orders, leading to a strong price decline. It’s marked by an up candle (in a bearish trend) before a sharp downward move.
▪️Use in Trading: Traders look for price to return to these areas as potential entry points, expecting the area to act as support (for bullish order blocks) or resistance (for bearish order blocks).
2. Imbalances
🔸Definition: Imbalances (also called Fair Value Gaps or FVG) occur when there is a strong price movement in one direction, leaving a "gap" in liquidity. ▪️IThis happens when there’s more demand or supply than what the current orders can fulfill, leading to a price spike.
▪️Identification: Look for consecutive candles moving in the same direction without much overlap in their wicks. This often leaves a gap between the high of one candle and the low of the next.
▪️Use in Trading: Since price often "rebalances" itself, traders may expect price to return to this area before continuing its trend, using it as a potential point for entries in the direction of the larger trend.
3. Breakers
🔸Definition: A breaker is a failed attempt at reversing a trend, usually involving a break of structure that indicates a reversal but then fails, with price moving back in the original trend's direction.
Types:
▪️Bullish Breaker: When a downtrend is invalidated, but instead of continuing downwards, price reverses back up. The previous support level that price broke and closed below may now act as a support zone.
▪️Bearish Breaker: When an uptrend is invalidated, but price moves back down, often causing previous resistance to act as resistance again.
▪️Use in Trading: Breakers are often used to identify failed reversals where traders might enter in the direction of the initial trend, as these zones tend to have strong support or resistance.
4. Bullish and Bearish Breakers in Trading
Bullish Breaker:
▪️A level created after a failed bearish structure, turning into support as the price breaks upward.
Look for confirmation of price moving above this level, with entry points often at or just above the zone.
Bearish Breaker:
▪️A level created after a failed bullish attempt, creating a resistance zone as price breaks lower.
Traders enter trades when price retests this breaker level and shows signs of rejection.
5. When to Enter Trades
▪️Order Block Entry: Look for price to return to an order block zone (after creating it), confirming it as a valid area of support or resistance. Confirmation methods include candlestick patterns or lower timeframe support/resistance creation.
▪️Imbalance Entry: Price may "fill" imbalances, and traders can look to enter as price retraces to this level with signs of rejection or confirmation. Watch for candles rejecting at the edge of the imbalance zone.
▪️Breaker Entry: Wait for price to test the breaker zone and show signs of rejection, typically with a smaller time-frame entry trigger (like a lower high or low in structure).
▪️Risk Management: When entering trades based on these points, place stops beyond the zone or recent high/low, and target areas of the next significant support/resistance or opposite liquidity pools.
6. Tips for Effective Use
🔸Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Check higher timeframe levels for stronger order blocks or breakers and use lower timeframes to refine entry.
🔸Wait for Confirmation: Often, a test of these areas with a reversal candlestick pattern (like a pin bar or engulfing candle) on a lower timeframe will provide better entries than immediately entering.
🔸Volume Confirmation: Higher volume in these areas can suggest more institutional interest and improve the chance of a successful trade.
🔸Mastering these concepts involves observing how price interacts with these levels across different market conditions, which enhances accuracy over time.