USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Eurusd-4
EURUSD: First 1H Golden Cross formed in 6 weeks.EURUSD may be marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.367, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 65.014) but on 1H it is cruising to the RSI overbought level as it formed the first 1H Golden Cross since September 15th. Technically it is a bullish pattern but short term the price has to overcome the S1 level (just hit it) and an almost overbought 4H RSI. This may give you the last opportunity to buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.10385), which has been the minimum target on every 1H Golden Cross since August.
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XAUUSD: Ready for a Correction After NFP?Analyzing XAU/USD's movement, the price recently hit a fresh all-time high around $2,790 but then experienced a slight pullback to $2,780. Despite this minor drop, the underlying trend remains strongly bullish, driven by the weakness of the US dollar due to mixed macroeconomic data limiting its demand. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bullish setup, suggesting the potential for further highs until a significant correction occurs. After a brief corrective dip, technical indicators have resumed their ascent into overbought territory, signaling that buyers are ready to capitalize on minor price dips. The price could break the psychological threshold of $2,800 before the US presidential elections, with the potential to discover new highs beyond the recent record of $2,789.72.
In October, the private sector added 233K new jobs, surpassing expectations and temporarily strengthening the dollar. However, Q3 GDP growth at 2.8% fell short of forecasts, adding downward pressure on the dollar. The quarterly Core PCE Price Index was 2.2%, down from the previous quarter’s 2.8% but above the 2.1% expectation. Despite this decline, inflation remains within the Fed’s tolerance range, reducing the likelihood of an impact on the central bank’s policy decisions.
EURUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 200 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name :EUR/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
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Bullish Break
1.08600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Hvn
- Fixed Range Hvn
- Channel Break
- Choch Zone
Bearish Reversal
1.10400 Area
Euro and its movement towards depthAccording to the economic data that was published recently and in the last two weeks, it seems that the euro will continue its downward movement. The two yellow and red paths are the possible paths of the euro towards the goals written in the chart. Capital management should always be your top priority.
EURUSD: short reversal ahead?The Existing Home Sales in the US dropped further in September by -0,1%, but it was still a lower drop from market forecast of -1,6%. At the same time, Building permits for September were standing at -3,1% for the month, while new home sales increased by 4,1% in September. Durable Goods Orders were lower by -0,8% in September for the month, a bit higher from market forecast of -0,5%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for October was standing at the level of 70.5, modestly above market expectation of 68,9. At the same time, 5 years inflation expectations dropped to the level of 3,0%, from 3,1% posted previously.
The PPI index dropped by -0,5% in Germany in September, leading to a yearly drop of -1,4%. Figures were higher from market forecast of -0,8%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Germany, flash for October reached the level of 42,6, and was a bit higher from market consensus of 40,6. The services sector continues to hold within a positive territory, with HCOB Services PMI flash reaching 51,5 for October. At the same time, the HCOB Composite PMI flash for October in the Euro Zone was standing at 49,7, although the market was expecting to see the level of 50,1. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in October reached the level of 86,5 a bit higher from market consensus of 85,5.
The Euro Zone economy continues to struggle with growth, after the ECB managed to put inflation under control. Comments made by President Lagarde indicate that the ECB is in a sort of hurry to put interest rates at the neutral zone. This means further rate cuts till the end of this year. Markets reacted to such a sentiment, by pushing Euro to the lower grounds. During the previous week the eurusd pair was testing the 1,08 support line, with lowest weekly level reached at 1,076. The currency pair rebound after, toward the highest weekly level at 1,083, however it is ending the week around the 1,08 level. The RSI reached the clear oversold market side, which indicates higher potential for a short term reversal. The moving average of 50 days started clear convergence toward the MA200, indicating a potential for a cross in the coming period.
The week ahead brings data for Non-farm payrolls and PCE Index which might bring a higher volatility to the market. The support line at 1,08 has been tested during the previous week, and it will be also a starting point for the week ahead. Considering that RSI is currently moving in the oversold territory, increasing the potential for a short reversal. In this sense, the level of 1,09 might be an easy target for the week ahead. Higher grounds are currently not indicated on charts. On the opposite side, charts are modestly revealing the 1,07 level, however, this might be a target for the longer-term period, and not for the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: GfK consumer Confidence in Germany in November, Unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone in October, Q3 flash GDP Growth Rate in Germany and the Euro Zone, Inflation Rate in Germany and the Euro Zone preliminary for October,
USD: JOLTs Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence, Q3 GDP Growth Rate, PCE Index for September, Personal Income and Spending for September, Initial Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Payrolls in October, Unemployment Rate in October, ISM Manufacturing PMI for October.
EUR/USD Builds Bullish Momentum with Strong Support and Pin BarAfter bottoming at 1.0760 exactly one week ago, FX:EURUSD has started to consolidate, forming what appears to be a base.
Since then, dips below 1.08 have been consistently bought up, culminating in a strong bullish Pin Bar candle yesterday.
To further support this bullish outlook, this base is forming at a key confluence of support levels, reinforcing the potential for an upward move.
With this in mind, I am looking to buy this pair, ideally on a dip, to ensure a positive risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
My target for a reversal is set at 1.0950, with respect to 1.09 resistance (this could serve as short term trader's target)
EURUSD Analysis==>>Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is moving near the Upper line of the Descending Channel , Support zone($1.0816-$1.0775) , and Support lines .
Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , EURUSD has already broken the Neckline of the Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern ( Bullish Reversal Pattern ).
Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect EURUSD to rise to at least the width of the descending channel after breaking the upper line of the descending channel and SMA(100) and then attacking the Resistance lines .
⚠️Note: If EURUSD goes below $1.075, we must wait for more dumps to at least $1.069⚠️
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
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US100/NASDAQ NEXT MOVEAfter successfully forecasting today's move (white line), this big drawdown was unexpected but it means two things :
- it has to correct before tonight
- it will not go under the green lower uptrend limit, because then it turns into a whole new trend and the 1D/4H/2H RSI is too low for any downtrend to start now.
It will go back up at 3:30 PM fot the big daily punch.
EURUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08300 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.08300 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
NEW IDEA FOR EURUSD Examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, EUR/USD has broken the ceiling of the upward channel and is now below the important support interval in the range of 1.0814-1.0814, provided no closes are recorded in the four-hour time frame. .0804, it can increase the price up to the Fibo resistance of 161.8% at $1.0833.
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance area to $1.0680Hi guys, this is my overview for Euro, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price entered to rising channel, where it rose to $1.1075 level and broke it, after which continued to grow.
Then price made a fake breakout of resistance line of channel, after which fell to support line of channel.
Then it rose to resistance line and then started to decline to support line, breaking $1.1075 level.
Also then, price exited from channel and fell to $1.0840 level, broke it, and declined to support line.
But then it bounced and rose to $1.0840 level, after which recently, EUR turned around and continued to fall.
Possibly, price can grow to resistance area and then bounce down to $1.0680 support line.
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EURUSD: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.08141
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on Livestream 30th October30th October
DXY: Look to break 104.20 and 61.8%, to trade down to 104 and 103.80
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6580 SL 20 TP 50 (Bearish Channel)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2960 SL 25 TP 50 (Break trendline0
EURUSD: Buy 1.0845 SL 20 TP 55 (Hesitation at 1.0870)
USDJPY: Ranging between 152.70 and 153.86 (looking for breakout potential)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8690 SL 15 TP 35
USDCAD: Sell 1.3875 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace to 2770, look for rejection and buying opportunities
EURUSD Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.080.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.078 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 30.10.202415m Swing Bearish , Internal Bullish
but strong retrace back to the swing high after creating 15m swing low
Price might sweep equal highs then we might see bearish momentum. There still is plenty room to mitigate in 4H swing structure
15m quick buys look more probable for now
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 30, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is losing ground after two days of gains, trading near 1.08100 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The Euro is under downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut the deposit rate again. Money markets currently rate the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut during the December meeting at nearly 50%.
Investors will be keeping a close eye on preliminary German and Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) data, as well as preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled for release on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the focus will shift to preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and October employment change data from ADP.
ECB policymakers have recently expressed different views on monetary policy. Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, said that the central bank has no pressing need to accelerate interest rate cuts and suggested that it might even settle for a more modest pace. In contrast, Mario Centeno, Governor of the Bank of Portugal, advocated considering a 50 basis point rate cut as a possible option for December.
The decline in EURUSD could also be attributed to a rise in the US Dollar amid rising Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six other major currencies, is trading around 104.30, while the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries are at 4.09% and 4.24%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The risk-sensitive EUR/USD may continue to decline amid continued uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. A three-day Reuters/Ipsos poll, which ended on Sunday and was released on Tuesday, showed that the race is virtually tied as we get closer to the November 5 election.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.08000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
GBP/USD: Will NFP Make the Dollar Drop?GBP/USD weakens around 1.3010 during the European session on Wednesday, staying within a descending channel since September, as the market awaits key economic data, including the UK Autumn Budget, October’s ADP Employment Change, and US Q3 GDP. A close above 1.2975 could attract buyers, pushing the price toward 1.3050, while support remains at 1.2895. The pound remains vulnerable to potential negative economic surprises or restrictive fiscal measures announced in the Budget, as indicated by Prime Minister Starmer, which could increase volatility. Positive US economic data, especially on employment and growth, could strengthen the dollar and further push GBP/USD lower. I am currently long on GBP/USD from last week, aiming for a 1:4 RR. Currently, I'm at a 1:2 RR with SL at BE, so risk-free. Have a great day and happy trading, everyone!