EURUSD Key Levels Hi today I have plotted some key levels on this EURUSD graph. I have marked the recent low, as well as some other liquidity zones.
Thanks! 🎃👻🔥🍋🍑
Eurusd-4
30/10/2024 - EUR/USD - Short Trade Plan30/10/2024 - EUR/USD - Short Trade Plan
Trade Details:
Entry: 1.08200 (15min Order Block with 4H OB Confluence)
Stop Loss: 1.08407
Take Profit 1: Based on 1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio
Take Profit 2: 1.07733
Reason for Trade:
Short entry is based on a 15-minute Order Block (OB) aligned with a higher timeframe (4H) OB, adding confluence to the setup.
Aiming for an initial 1:1 Risk-Reward (RR) on TP1, with TP2 set at a lower target.
Disclaimer: This trade plan is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Please conduct your own analysis before trading.
EUR/USD Consolidates Before Continuing UptrendBased on the EUR/USD chart, there are signs of a "Cup and Handle" pattern forming. The price is currently fluctuating around the resistance at 1.0826 and the support zone near 1.0770. The trend suggests that the price will likely continue to move in a narrow range before it can break the resistance and move into the next uptrend. If the price breaks this resistance, we can expect a strong increase, but in the short term, the fluctuation in this zone will continue.
#EURUSD - 30102024Yesterday I was bearish EURUSD and it nicely hit the sell level and sold down 55 pips. However it missed the final price target given before a huge recovery, closing near the highs.
After a huge down, EURUSD is consolidating for the next move. IMO, EURUSD should have another move higher. But in what manner? IMO, if EURUSD comes down first, 1.0796 is a level to look for possible lows and a long to target 1.0858. And if 1.0858 trades first, look for possible rejection off the level for a next move lower.
It could be the euro's time to shineThis may not be a popular theme, but that is usually the case at turning points. Like it or not, EUR/USD bears have failed to break the August low, and the rally on the USD index and yields looks exhausted. Every trend needs a retracement, and I suspect a small one, at a minimum, is due.
MS.
EURJPY DOUBLE SIDEReaching the uptrend limit and then a very high RSI, EURJPY will then proceed to fall ;
it will reach one of these KL, not sure which one, before regaining a low RSI and getting ready to go back up ;
some zigzag might be there as well when it reached the limit.
eurusd going upeurusd going up again, dxy will fall some points giving euro usdollar some credit maybe until the last 1.12 dollars per 1 euro, maybe more, who knows, didnt made the macros and the math, but signaling a big dowfall from dxy and longs going into eurusd
EURUSD 4hour RSI Bullish Divergence.EURUSD has been struggling to break above the 1day MA50 but that shouldn't take long to do so, as the 4hour RSI is on a Channel Up (Bullish Divergence) since 10 days already.
Once the 1day MA50 breaks, we expect a 1day MA200 test, followed by a pull back before the final rise.
Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.10400.
Previous chart:
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EUR-USD Long From Rising Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading along
The long-term rising support
And the pair is about to retest
It from where we will be
Expecting a local move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
XAU/USD : More Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that last week, before filling the gap between $2715.5 and $2716.5, the price started rising from the $2717 area and managed to reach $2747.7. After closing at this level on Friday, we saw that over the weekend, with global markets closed, Israel launched its attack on Iran. However, since this attack was lighter than expected, the markets opened today with a large negative gap in gold. The price opened around $2734, with over a 130-pip gap, but within a few hours, this gap was filled as the price rose to $2744.
As you can see on the chart, there are currently two remaining price gaps. One is between $2715.5 and $2716.5, and the other is between $2744.5 and $2747.2. Which gap do you think will be filled first?
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR/USD Selloff CaseGood morning everyone.
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.
DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987.
EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07.
Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle.
Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum.
Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under.
The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning.
Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback.
BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week.
Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week.
Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut.
Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY.
Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
EUR/USD FACING SELLING PRESSURE. $DXY MULTIPLE PIVOTS POINTSGood morning everyone.
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.
DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987.
EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07.
Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle.
Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum.
Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under.
The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning.
Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback.
BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week.
Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week.
Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut.
Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY.
Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
EURUSD_2Hhello
Eurodollar analysis in the medium term time frame Elliott wave analysis style The market is in a downward trend The most important resistance is 1.08100 Goal and target 1.07100
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.08144
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Will Buyers Hold the Line? EUR/USD 15-Min Support Zone AnalysisPotential support alert for EUR/USD! As the price approaches this green zone, a rebound is possible – but only with the right confirmation. Here’s how to play it smart! 📈⚠️
Scenario EURUSDAt the beginning of the whole movement there was a double peak from which the price fell sharply down to the level of 0.7688 where the price stopped on the trend line where at the same time there is support, I assume according to the last formation that a correction wave could start from this level which could end somewhere around the price of 1.10388 which is 0.618 fibo
EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 29.10.2024 Swing, Internal, Fractal are Bearish
Mitigated the 15m unmitigated supply, collected internal liquidity and strong bearish momentum. I will follow the bearish order flow unless I see anything bullish on HTF.
Fresh 15m supply to look for shorts. We might see internal bullish reactions for sure, but shorts more probable.
EURUSD at an important support.EUR/USD is currently positioned at a significant support area on the daily chart, marked by both an uptrend line and horizontal support. Here are some important notes about the pair right now:
Long-Term Ascending Channel: The black lines forming an ascending channel on the chart indicate that EUR/USD has been in an uptrend since October 2023. This channel acts as a dynamic range for support and resistance, with the price generally adhering to these lines over time.
Horizontal Support on D1: The lower black line of the channel highlights a Double Bottom pattern, suggesting that sellers have struggled to push the price lower. Additionally, this horizontal support aligns with the ascending trend line on the daily chart, which the price recently tested. Given the confluence of these lines (the uptrend and horizontal support), this level is crucial and could influence EUR/USD's direction in the coming days.
Resistance and Support Zones: The horizontal green areas represent key resistance and support zones. The main resistance level is near 1.0950, which previously functioned as support but was recently breached during a downward move. The support zone is located at 1.0667, serving as the next target if the price breaks below the current channel support.
Recent Candlestick Patterns: On October 24, a bullish engulfing pattern formed, indicating renewed buyer interest after the price touched the support region on the daily chart. This pattern occurs when a bearish candle is fully engulfed by a subsequent bullish candle, suggesting potential buying momentum.
Considering these factors, an upward movement may occur if the price holds at the support level, potentially leading to a recovery towards 1.0950. Conversely, a downward movement could ensue if the price breaks through the channel support and trendline, possibly reaching the support area around 1.0670.
Attention to NonFarm Payrolls on Friday:
Traders interested in the EUR/USD this week should be cautious about the release of the NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will occur on Friday, November 1st. The NFP is one of the most important economic indicators in the financial market, as it measures the change in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the US. This data is a reflection of the health of the US economy and directly influences expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy.
When the NFP is released, it provides insight into the level of economic activity and the strength of the US labor market. If the jobs data beats expectations, it could signal a strong economy, prompting the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy, such as raising interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar, as they attract more investment in higher-yielding US assets. Consequently, a strong NFP could put downward pressure on the EUR/USD, strengthening the dollar against the euro.
On the other hand, a below-expected NFP could suggest an economic slowdown, prompting the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance, such as keeping interest rates steady or even cutting them. In this scenario, the dollar could weaken, which would favor a rise in the EUR/USD.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
King Dollar Reigns Supreme: DXY Strategic Outlook🔸Hello guys, today let's review D1 price chart for DXY. We are trading
inside well-defined multi year range, currently closing in on range highs.
🔸Every EURUSD trader need to study this chart and bookmark it in
order to time his entries/exits for EURUSD. Dollar still reigns supreme.
🔸Range lows defined at 100.00 , range highs set at 106.75.
This is the active trading range for DXY since early 2023 it's
well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range
any time soon so traders should focus on trading based on key s/r
levels on the DXY price chart.
🔸Key Zones: S 100.25 / 101.25 / 102.75 R 105.25 / 106.50
🔸Currently I'm expecting pullback from overhead resistance 105.25
is the critical level where we can expect pullback in DXY, so that's
when you want to also go LONG EURUSD, when DXY maxes out / enters
pullback stage of the cycle.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: when DXY hits resistance
at 105.25, BUY/HOLD EURUSD, target is 200/300 pips on BUY side for EURUSD. Once the pullback in DXY is over/complete at 102.70, short EURUSD, final target on sell side for EURUSD is 1.0500. Good luck traders!
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#EURUSD - 29 OctI was looking for a short off a rally to 1.0816 for a move lower. In the end, EURUSD came down first before rallied to 1.0826 and is stuck here.
I am thus maintaining my bearish stance, looking for a short here, for a move lower, with 1.0750 as near term target.
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! )
All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond.
Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment?
A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories:
• “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress
• “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda
I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%.
Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock
With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two:
• What asset class would fare well if Trump wins?
• Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view?
What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris.
To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is.
Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work?
• If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet.
• If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses.
Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial.
My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily.
Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events:
(1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump
• Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%)
• DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%)
(2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive
• Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%)
(3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump
• Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%)
(4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump
• Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%)
(5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive
• Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%)
The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th.
For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT.
DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments
Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile.
I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded:
US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT
Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT
US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT
Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors.
The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true.
Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures
Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280.
The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375.
Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows:
• A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures.
• A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E.
I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0793
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.0817
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of EURUSD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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