EUR/USD) one side of breakout and move Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe, showing two ptential scenarios based on price behavior around a key supply zone.
1. Key Levels:
Resistance/Target Point (Upper): ~1.15729
Supply Zone (Current Price Area): ~1.14100–1.14500
Support Level/Target Point (Lower): ~1.12658
200 EMA: ~1.13581 acting as dynamic support
2. Current Price:
EURUSD is trading at 1.14167, just above the 200 EMA and at the bottom edge of the supply zone.
3. Scenarios Outlined:
Bullish Scenario:
If price breaks and holds above the supply zone, it may continue toward the upper resistance level at 1.15729.
This move would be supported by bullish momentum and potentially a breakout strategy.
Bearish Scenario:
If price rejects the supply zone and fails to break above convincingly, a reversal is expected.
The target for this bearish move is the support zone near 1.12658.
4. Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Around 49, neutral zone but potentially recovering from oversold.
Suggests indecision, with momentum that could swing either way depending on price action at the supply zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
Trade Ideas:
Long Trade Setup (Breakout):
Entry: Break and retest above ~1.14500.
Target: ~1.15729.
Stop Loss: Below ~1.14100.
Short Trade Setup (Rejection):
Entry: Rejection candle formation around 1.14300–1.14500.
Target: ~1.12658.
Stop Loss: Above ~1.14700.
Overall Idea:
This is a dual-scenario setup, where the market structure at the current supply zone will determine direction. The chart encourages traders to wait for confirmation before committing to either a breakout or a reversal strategy.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Eurusd-4
EURUSD: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 1.14035 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD Short Term Buy Idea Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 15th I shared this idea "EURUSD Short Term Buy Idea"
Expected retraces and further continuation higher until the strong support zone holds. You can read the full post using the link above.
Price moved as per the plan!!!
Retraces happened as expected and then the price moved higher further.
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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Wave 5 Completed – Time to Ride the Correction!"Structure Overview
Wave Count: You’ve marked the end of wave (5), indicating a potential trend reversal or correction.
Bearish Setup:
Price rejected the orange supply zone post wave (5), suggesting bearish pressure.
Entry appears to be near the top of the small pullback into that zone.
Target is set near the larger demand zone around 1.12274.
Right-Side Box (Key Idea Summary):
Suggests a range-bound market, followed by:
A lower high into a new supply zone (brown box).
A sharp drop into a deeper demand zone at the base (green zone).
Key Price Levels:
Resistance/Supply: 1.14153, 1.15205
Support/Demand: 1.12274, lower box near 1.11400
Possible Strategy:
Sell setup: Look for confirmation candles or patterns near the orange/brown zones.
Target: Previous demand zone or lower if structure breaks.
SL: Above the orange/red zone to manage risk.
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1418
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1465
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD sideways consolidation in strong uptrendTrend Overview: The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a bullish trend, supported by a prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation (coiling price action) possibly triggering a corrective pullback towards a newly formed support zone, previously a resistance level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
1.1240 – Previous resistance turned support, key level for potential bounce.
1.1144 – Secondary support level if 1.1240 fails.
1.1000 and 1.0890 – Stronger support in case of extended retracement.
Resistance Levels:
1.1475 – Initial resistance level on the upside.
1.1595 – Next target if bullish momentum continues.
1.1700 and 1.1830 – Long-term resistance and key breakout point.
Market Sentiment & Price Action: The recent corrective pullback aligns with normal market fluctuations within an uptrend. A bullish bounce from the 1.1240 support level could trigger an upside move, targeting the 1.1475 resistance level and potentially extending towards 1.1595 and 1.1700 – 1.1830 over a longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.1240 support, accompanied by a daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could lead to further downside pressure, potentially testing the 1.1144 level, with an extended decline towards 1.1000 and 1.0890 if selling pressure intensifies.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish structure as long as the 1.1240 support holds. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 1.1240 and a daily close under this level could shift sentiment bearish, leading to further downside retracement.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips From HighsMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips From Highs
EUR/USD declined from the 1.1570 resistance and traded below 1.1470.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1500 zone.
- There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1440 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1500 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1500 support zone against the US Dollar.
There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1440. The pair declined below 1.1410 and tested the 1.1310 zone. A low was formed near 1.1308 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1370 level.
The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1573 swing high to the 1.1308 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1440 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1410 level. The next key resistance is at 1.1440 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1573 swing high to the 1.1308 low.
The main resistance is near the 1.1470 level. A clear move above the 1.1470 level could send the pair toward the 1.1570 resistance. An upside break above 1.1570 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650.
If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1335. The next key support is at 1.1310. If there is a downside break below 1.1310, the pair could drop toward 1.1265. The next support is near 1.1220, below which the pair could start a major decline.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
+300/+500 pips EURJPY Swing Trade Setup H4 TF🏆 EURJPY Market Update H4 chart
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸trading in well defined range
🔸Short-term: BULLS final pump
🔸Mid-term: BEARS 158.00
🔸Status: REVERSAL from S/R
🔸163.50/165.00 heavy resistances
🔸158.00/156.00 key s/r zones below
🔸Price Target Bears: 158
🔸Price Target BULLS: 1140/1160
🔸strategy: SHORT SELL 163.50
🔸SL 75 pips TP1 +300 pips TP2 +500 pips
🔸swing trade setup for patient traders
📊 Forex Market Update (April 23, 2025)
🇪🇺 EUR/USD
📉 Price: ~1.1380
💪 Pressure from strong USD
🔻 Weak German PMI; ECB may cut rates
⚠️ Key Levels: Support 1.1300 | Resistance 1.1400
🇬🇧 GBP/USD
📉 Price: ~1.3300 (Down from 7-month high at 1.3424)
🇺🇸 USD rebound on Trump's comments
🏦 Market cautious on BoE policy
⚠️ Key Levels: Support 1.3280 | Resistance 1.3420
🇺🇸 DXY (US Dollar Index)
📈 Price: 99.18 (Recovering from recent low 97.92)
🗣️ Boosted by Trump reassurance on Fed leadership
⚠️ Remains pressured by trade tensions & Fed concerns
📌 Key Levels: Support 95, 90 | Resistance 101, 107
🔔 Market Volatility Alert: Watch for geopolitical updates & central bank news closely!
EUR/USD - Next leg up incoming?Since February, the EUR/USD currency pair has been in a strong and sustained uptrend, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment. What began as a recovery from the 1.02 level has quickly turned into a strong bullish movement, with the pair already reaching as high as 1.15 in just a matter of two months. This impressive rally marks a clear change in momentum, with price action showing classic bullish characteristics.
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What will we discuss
- Overall trend structure
- 4H Fair Value Gap
- Golden pocket fibonacci
- What to expect next?
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Overall trend structure
Over the past two months, the price action has maintained a clean and well-defined bullish structure. The consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows is a textbook sign of a strong uptrend. Each retracement has been shallow, with buyers stepping in above previous lows, and each rally has broken through key resistance zones, further confirming the prevailing bullish bias.
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4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
During the latest move up to 1.15, EUR/USD formed a 4H FVG, just before a short-term rejection at the top. This unfilled imbalance now coincides with a key support area. Given this confluence, it’s highly likely that price could revisit this zone to partially or fully fill the gap. This would allow the market to rebalance, and potentially offer a strong foundation for another bullish leg.
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Golden pocket Fibonacci
Adding to the significance of this zone is the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement (0.618–0.65) from the latest upward swing, which lies between 1.14198–1.14274. This area happens to align perfectly with the midpoint of the 4H FVG, providing additional confluence and making it a major technical level to watch.
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What to expect next?
With both the 4H FVG and the golden pocket overlapping, the zone around 1.14198–1.14274 becomes a high-probability support area. Historically, the golden pocket is known to attract strong buying interest, and when coupled with the FVG, it strengthens the case for a bullish reaction. If price dips into this zone and finds support, it could mark the beginning of the next impulsive move higher, in line with the broader uptrend.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD Reached Triangle Target📊 Technical Analysis
EUR/USD remains in a rising channel but is struggling at resistance near 1.1600, forming a bearish divergence. The pair is again testing support around 1.1390.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
The ECB's April rate cut, amid weak growth and easing inflation, highlights Eurozone fragility, while the Fed holds steady as US data remains solid. This policy divergence and ongoing trade tensions support short-term USD strength.
✨ Summary
Both technical and fundamental signals align, suggesting a short-term bearish bias for EUR/USD.
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GOLD heading to $3,450 or a bull trap ahead?XAUUSD has shown a strong bullish reversal from the key zone at $2,832, with a series of high-volatility, full-bodied weekly candles that completely absorbed the supply in the $3,050–3,140 area. The breakout of previous weekly and monthly highs confirmed a bullish structural shift, with a natural technical target around $3,450—its recent all-time high. Price reacted precisely to previously tested demand blocks, suggesting that buy-side pressure may still have room to expand.
However, a deeper look at COT data reveals a more complex picture: Money Managers’ net positions on GOLD have been declining sharply for months, diverging from price action. This may indicate a rally driven more by retail flows or ETFs than by institutional strength, making it potentially unstable. Additionally, the COT report on the Dollar Index shows growing net long positions among leveraged traders, signaling USD strength—historically a headwind for gold.
In summary, gold remains technically bullish with room to climb to $3,450, but COT data raises a red flag: if institutional positions don’t realign with the move, this rally could turn out to be a bull trap. From a trading perspective, there’s room for aggressive longs, but only with tight risk management.
EURUSDEURUSD price has a chance to test the 1.14550 and 1.15419 levels. If the price cannot break through the 1.15419 resistance zone, it is expected that the price has a chance to go down. Consider selling the red zone.
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Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
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EUR/USD Bearish Setup Unfolding Below Key Resistance📊 Technical Analysis of EUR/USD (4H Chart)
🧭 Chart Overview:
Current Price: ~1.1350
Indicators Used:
EMA 50 (Red): ~1.1311 — acting as dynamic support.
EMA 200 (Blue): ~1.1114 — aligns closely with major support zone.
📌 Key Levels:
🔼 Main Resistance Zone: 1.1375 – 1.1400
Price has tested this zone multiple times, forming a potential double top pattern.
Strong bearish pressure observed each time price enters this area.
🔁 Minor Resistance (Retest Zone): ~1.1325 – 1.1345
Currently acting as a decision zone.
If price fails to hold above this level, it could turn into resistance on the next bearish leg.
🔽 Support Zone: 1.1100 – 1.1130
Converges with EMA 200 — making it a high-probability demand zone.
Potential target for the anticipated drop.
🧠 Price Action & Structure:
Market showed a strong bullish rally previously, breaking through resistance levels.
Now showing signs of exhaustion at the top.
Bearish scenario projected with a lower high forming below the main resistance, followed by a sell-off toward the support zone.
⚙️ Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario (High Probability):
Price rejects the minor resistance → breaks below EMA 50 → continues lower to support.
Target: 1.1110 area.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability):
Price reclaims and closes above 1.1375 with strong momentum.
Potential breakout and continuation toward 1.1450+.
🧩 Confluences Supporting Bearish Bias:
Lower high formation potential.
EMA 50 starting to flatten.
Failure to maintain momentum above main resistance.
Clean drop path toward 1.1110 if support breaks.
📉 Conclusion:
This setup favors short-term bearish movement, particularly if the price rejects around the 1.1345 level again. A breakdown below the minor resistance zone would likely trigger a sell-off toward the 1.1110 support, in line with the 200 EMA.
EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Structure 5th Wave Extension UnderwayThe overall trend of EUR/USD appears upward when observed from a higher time frame, indicating that the 4th wave has completed and the 5th wave is in formation. Within the main 5th wave, sub-waves are developing, and it seems we are currently in the sub-wave of the 5th sub-wave. Once this sub-wave completes, the main 5th wave is also expected to complete.
The invalidation level for this structure is at 1.10920 . If the upward move continues as expected, potential targets could be seen around 1.14683 and 1.15894
EURUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 22.04.25)Overall Trend & Context:
This pair is in an overall uptrend and has broken above last weeks highs.
Technical Findings:
Price is trading above 25, 50,100 and 200 EMA's on the daily and 4H charts.
Overall Bullish price action is evident.
Price has been consolidating through London session thus far, we can expect a tap into the demand below the liquidity (relative equal lows) before continuation of bullish cycles.
Notes:
Price is currently at a weekly supply level, we may bounce in and out of it a few times, so manage your risk and take this setup based on your own analysis as well.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1490
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1559
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
EURUSD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.14656 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.14432..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️