EURUSD: NFP and jobs data aheadAnother Friday was in the spotlight of market participants, as PCE data for February were set for a release. The PCE price Index was up by 0,3% for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis. Core PCE remains elevated at the level of 0,4% for February and 2,8% compared to the previous year. The US GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 was standing at 2,4% for the quarter, a bit higher from market consensus of 2,3%. The Durable Goods orders surged by 0,9% in February, significantly surpassing market estimate of -1,2%. The CB Consumer Confidence in March was at the level of 92,9, a bit lower from forecasted 94,4. The New Home Sales were higher in February by 1,8% on a monthly basis, which was higher from estimated 0,5% for February. Pending Home Sales were higher by 2% in February, bringing the indicator to the level of -3,6% on a yearly basis. The S&P Global Composite PMI flash for March was standing at 53,5, bit higher from forecasted 51,5. The weekend brought data for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final for March, reaching the level of 57,0, below the previous post of 64,0, but in line with market estimates. The highest surprise came from inflation expectations for this year, which reached the level of 5%, from 4,3% posted previously. The five year inflation expectations were also higher, standing at the level of 4,1%, from 3,5% posted previously.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for March in Germany was standing at 48,3 a bit higher from market consensus of 47. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 48,7, again slightly higher from market estimate of 48,2. The Ifo Business climate in March in Germany was at the level of 86,7, in line with market expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in April was at the level of -24,5, higher from market estimate of -23. The Unemployment rate in Germany in March was increased to the level of 6,3% from previous 6,2%.
During the first half of the week, the market favoured the US Dollar. However, the post of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data final for March and significantly increased inflation expectations from US consumers, were the trigger for the weakening of the USD. The currency pair started the previous week at the level of 1,850, moved toward the lowest weekly level at 1,0740, and then reverted back, ending the week at 1,0827. It was sort of a weekly rollercoaster caused by market high sensitivity to inflation data. The RSI modestly reached the level of 54, but there is still no indication that the market is eyeing the oversold market side at this moment. The MA50 continues to strongly converge toward the MA200, decreasing the distance between two lines. There is some indication of a potential cross in the coming period, but it might occur within the next several weeks.
The eurusd tested for one more time the significant level of 1,08, where it is ending the week. Considering high market uncertainty related to both trade tariffs and inflation expectations, some volatility might continue at the start of the week ahead around this level. For one more week, the week-end should be especially closely watched, as NFP data are set for a release, as well as unemployment data for March. In this sense, the volatility is again guaranteed during the week ahead. Based on current charts, there is some probability for the currency pair to head toward the 1,10, next resistance line. In case that the market heads toward the downside, then 1,07 might be shortly a target.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Retail sales in February in Germany, preliminary Inflation rate in Germany in March, Inflation rate flash for March in the EuroZone,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOTLs Jobs Opening in February, ISM Services PMI in March, Non-farm Payrolls in March, Unemployment rate in March, Fed Chair Powell speech.
