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Eurusd-4

EURUSD: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why: The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the EURUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1
Dollar Milkshake Theory: Will the US Dollar Suck the World Dry?Imagine a colossal milkshake party where every country brings its own flavor—sweet euros, tangy yen, spicy rupees—blended into a global liquidity shake. Now picture the United States, armed with a giant straw, slurping up every last drop while the rest of the world watches in dismay. 🍓🍫🍦 This vivid analogy isn’t just a quirky dessert dream—it’s the heart of Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory, a provocative economic idea that’s been shaking up financial circles since 2018. But is the US dollar really about to dominate the global economy, or will it choke on its own straw? Let’s dive into this creamy concoction of macroeconomics, recent trends, and global stakes—complete with a cherry of skepticism on top! 🍒 🥛 What’s the Dollar Milkshake Theory, Anyway? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, isn’t just a wealth manager—he’s a financial storyteller who’s been stirring the pot with his Dollar Milkshake Theory. Picture this: the global economy is a giant milkshake, with frothy assets (stocks, bonds, commodities) floating on top, and the milk, cream, and sugar representing the cash flows between markets. The straw? That’s the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, sucking up liquidity when it tightens, leaving other economies parched. Johnson’s core idea is simple yet bold: during global economic turmoil, the US dollar—thanks to its status as the world’s reserve currency—becomes a safe haven. Investors worldwide flock to it, driving its value skyward while other currencies wither. 🌎💰 Since 2008, global central banks have pumped roughly $30 trillion in liquidity into the system through quantitative easing (QE), creating a massive “milkshake” of money. But when the Fed raises rates, as it has in recent years, the US siphons that liquidity, leaving other nations scrambling to pay dollar-denominated debts. Here’s the kicker: this isn’t a one-time sip. Johnson predicts a feedback loop where the dollar’s strength forces other countries to print more of their own currencies to buy dollars, further weakening their economies and reinforcing the dollar’s dominance. It’s a vicious cycle—a “milkshake” that could leave the global economy in a sticky mess. 🌀 📈 The Recipe for Dollar Dominance: Why the US Holds the Straw Why does the US get to drink everyone else’s milkshake? It’s all about structural advantages baked into the global financial system: Reserve Currency Status 💵: The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. As of 2022, it accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, dwarfing the euro’s 20% share . From oil to copper, most global trade is priced in dollars, creating constant demand. Deep Capital Markets 🏦: The US has the deepest and most liquid bond markets, especially for Treasuries, making it the go-to place for investors seeking safety during crises. Higher Interest Rates 📊: When the Fed raises rates, as it did aggressively in 2022-2023 to combat inflation, the dollar becomes more attractive compared to currencies like the euro or yen, where central banks like the ECB and BOJ have been slower to tighten . Global Dependence on Dollars 🌐: Over 60% of international reserves are in dollars, and many countries and corporations hold dollar-denominated debt. When the dollar strengthens, their debt burden skyrockets, forcing them to buy more dollars to service it . Johnson argues this isn’t just a cyclical trend—it’s a structural feature of the modern financial system. As he put it on Real Vision in 2018, “The dollar’s dominance is structural, not cyclical”. The US doesn’t just sip the milkshake—it guzzles it, leaving others to scrape the bottom of the glass. 🥤 📅 2025 Reality Check: Is the Milkshake Theory Playing Out? Fast forward to April 2025, and the global economy is a blender of chaos: trade tensions, high debt levels, and monetary policy shifts are whipping up a storm. Does Johnson’s theory hold water—or rather, milk? Let’s look at the evidence. 🕵️‍♂️ 🟢 The Bull Case: The Dollar’s Straw Is Sucking Hard DXY Strength in 2024-2025: The US dollar index (DXY) surged 7% in 2024, hitting a two-year high of 108.07 in November 2024, driven by US economic growth, tariffs, and global uncertainty . Despite a recent 8% drop over the last two months (from ~106.8 in mid-February 2025 to 98.423 as of April 22, 2025), the DXY remains near historic highs, aligning with Johnson’s prediction of dollar strength during stress. Historical Precedents: During the 2020 COVID crisis, the DXY jumped as the Fed provided $450 billion in swap lines to ease dollar shortages globally, reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven role. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the DXY to a 20-year high of 114, as capital fled to the US amid Europe’s energy crisis. Global Liquidity Squeeze: High-debt economies like Japan (debt-to-GDP at 255%) and the Eurozone (Italy at 139%, France at 112%) are under pressure. Capital flight to the US, especially if their growth falters, supports the milkshake effect. Safe-Haven Demand: Posts on X reflect sentiment that the dollar’s strength is tied to its stability in an unstable world, with some users noting its “dug-in” status as global liquidity flows to the US . 🔴 The Bear Case: Is the Straw Starting to Bend? Recent DXY Drop: The 8% decline in the DXY over the last two months (mid-February to April 2025) signals vulnerability. Trade war fears, threats to Fed independence, and a weakening US trade balance are weighing on the dollar. Some X users predict a further drop to 96-97, or even 87, if support levels break. Fed Policy Shifts: The Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, which typically weakens the dollar by reducing its yield advantage. This move, aimed at balancing inflation and growth, could undermine the milkshake effect if it continues. Dedollarization Efforts: BRICS nations are pushing to reduce dollar reliance, with China and India holding significant non-dollar reserves ($3,682 billion and $662 billion, respectively, as of April 2025). A shift toward commodity-based currencies could challenge the dollar long-term. US Debt Concerns: The US’s soaring debt levels (over 120% of GDP in 2024) and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target raise questions about the dollar’s sustainability. If confidence in US fiscal health wanes, the milkshake could spill. 🌪️ What Happens If the Milkshake Theory Plays Out? If Johnson is right, the global economy could face a bitter aftertaste. Here’s what a super-strong dollar might mean: Currency Crises Abroad 💥: Countries with dollar-denominated debt—like many emerging markets—would struggle as their debt burdens soar. A stronger dollar means they need more of their own currency to buy dollars, potentially triggering defaults. Commodity Price Slumps 📉: A rising dollar often leads to lower commodity prices (priced in dollars), hurting exporters like Brazil or Australia. This could stifle growth in developing economies. US Export Woes 🚢: An overly strong dollar makes US goods pricier abroad, hurting American exporters. US companies could lose competitiveness, impacting economic growth. Safe-Haven Asset Boom 🪙: Investors might flock to alternatives like gold or Bitcoin to hedge against currency devaluation. Gold recently hit $3,400 amid the DXY’s slide, and Bitcoin has seen gains as a “risk-on” asset. Geopolitical Shifts 🌍: A dominant dollar could lead more countries to peg their currencies to the USD for stability, as 65 nations already do (e.g., Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia). But it might also accelerate dedollarization efforts, with BRICS nations seeking alternatives. 🤔 Skeptics Stir the Pot : Is the Milkshake Theory Too Sweet to Be True? Not everyone’s sipping Johnson’s milkshake. Critics argue it’s more of a financial fairy tale than a robust theory: Oversimplification 📊: The global economy is far more complex than a milkshake analogy. The theory focuses heavily on Fed policy but downplays other central banks’ actions, geopolitical tensions, and the rise of digital currencies. Lack of Timeframes ⏳: Johnson’s predictions lack clear timelines, making them hard to test. As some X users have pointed out, being “too early” in financial markets is as good as being wrong. Counter-Theories 🌐: Economist Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III Theory suggests a shift toward commodity-based currencies in the East, potentially weakening the dollar. Post-Russia-Ukraine war, nations are diversifying away from the USD, favoring hard assets like gold. US Vulnerabilities 🇺🇸 : The US’s own fiscal health—high debt, persistent inflation, and trade deficits—could undermine the dollar. Recent tariffs and supply chain shifts (e.g., moving away from China) may raise production costs, fueling inflation and slowing growth. 💡 What’s Next for the Dollar Milkshake in 2025 and Beyond? As of April 22, 2025, the DXY’s recent 8% drop is a speed bump, not a derailment, for the Milkshake Theory. The long-term chart you provided projects the DXY climbing to 120-130 by the late 2020s, suggesting this dip might be a correction within a broader uptrend. But the road ahead is frothy with uncertainty: Watch the Fed 🏛️: If the Fed continues rate cuts, the dollar’s yield advantage could shrink, slowing the milkshake effect. Conversely, renewed tightening could reignite dollar strength. Global Crises ⚡: Ongoing trade wars, like US-China tensions, or new geopolitical shocks could drive more capital to the US, reinforcing the theory. Dedollarization Risks 🌏: If BRICS nations succeed in reducing dollar reliance, the US straw might not suck as hard in the future. 🥛 Sip or Spill: Should You Buy Into the Milkshake Theory? Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory is a compelling narrative that captures the US dollar’s unique power in a turbulent world. The evidence—DXY strength, historical crises, and global dollar demand—suggests there’s cream in this shake. But the theory isn’t without cracks: the US’s own vulnerabilities, dedollarization efforts, and the recent DXY dip remind us that even the mightiest straw can bend. 🥤 For investors, this means staying nimble. A stronger dollar could hurt emerging markets and commodities, but it might boost safe-haven assets like gold or Bitcoin. Keep an eye on Fed policy, global growth, and geopolitical shifts—they’ll determine whether the US keeps sipping or the milkshake spills. 🌍💸 What do you think—will the dollar dominate, or is the party over? Let’s hear your thoughts! 🗣️
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
EURUSD Analysis – Waiting for Reaction at Key Demand Zone OANDA:EURUSD Technical Outlook: EURUSD is forming a potential bullish continuation pattern. I'm watching for a retracement to the demand zone around 1.1196, where a long opportunity may present itself if bullish confirmation appears. Buy Scenario: Wait for price to dip into 1.1196 zone Look for bullish price action signals Target: 1.1395 Stop loss: Below 1.1160 Sell Scenario (if broken): Clean break of 1.1196, followed by retest (pullback) Target: 1.0953 Note: This setup is based on key market structure levels and potential reaction zones. I update my levels weekly and track how price respects them. For detailed entry points, trade management, and high-probability setups, follow the channel: @ForexCSP
Long
by ForexCSP
WHY EURUSD IS STILL BULLISH DETAILED ANALYSIS We closely monitoring EUR/USD, which is currently trading around 1.0430. The pair has shown resilience after rebounding from the 1.0220 support level, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the 3-day chart. This pattern suggests potential for a bullish reversal, especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from oversold conditions. The price action aligns with the lower boundary of a long-term descending channel, indicating a possible shift in trend. Fundamentally, the euro is under pressure due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent rate cut to 2.25%, marking the seventh reduction since mid-2024. This move aims to counteract the economic slowdown exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on EU imports. In contrast, the U.S. dollar faces its challenges, with political tensions arising from President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates swiftly. These dynamics have led to increased volatility and a weakened dollar, influencing EUR/USD movements. Technically, the ascending triangle pattern observed on the 4-hour chart supports a bullish outlook. A decisive break above the 1.0625 resistance could pave the way for targets at 1.0760 and subsequently 1.0850. However, traders should remain cautious, as a drop below the 1.0220 support might signal a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially testing parity levels. In the current market environment, it's crucial to stay updated with economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Key events, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Eurozone inflation data, will provide further insights into the pair's direction. Employing sound risk management strategies and staying informed will be essential for navigating the EUR/USD landscape effectively.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146. Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet. 📊 COT Report – USD Index Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory. Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar. The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback. 📊 COT Report – JPY Futures Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024. Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025. This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety. 💥 Trade Outlook USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are: 137.00 → historical mid-level support 134.00 → base of the 2023 structure Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1426, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.1603, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The stop loss is placed at 1.1266, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
EURUSD | Short‑Term Pullback Meets First Support ZoneI know a lot of you have been watching EURUSD closely. With recent developments, we could see a modest dip before the next leg up in the euro. What’s Driving the Dollar End of Market Indecision As uncertainty fades, the dollar’s safe‑haven appeal eases. Investors feel more confident stepping into riskier assets. U.S.–China Dialogue News that the U.S. and China are ready to resume high‑level talks removes a huge overhang. Less trade‑war fear means less upward pressure on USD. Solid Economic Data Last week’s jobless claims and employment figures were far from recession‑level weakness. That supports the dollar in the near term. Short‑Term Outlook Putting these factors together, EURUSD may unwind some of its recent gains. Sellers could push price lower into the blue box, which marks our first support area. Long‑Term Perspective Even so, remember that President Trump’s ongoing policy surprises tend to rattle confidence in the dollar over time. Once this short‑term pullback is over, the euro stands to resume its broader uptrend. How to Trade It Wait for price to dip into the blue box Look for lower‑time‑frame bullish breaks confirmed by CDV signals Enter a long only when you see a clean structure shift and volume support If price breaks below the blue box without a retest, stay out or reassess This approach keeps risk tight and lets the market prove itself first. Many traders jump in too early. If you follow these steps, you’ll join the move with conviction rather than guesswork. I’ve built my track record by trading exactly this way—patiently and with clear confirmations. Stay tuned and let’s capture the next leg up together. 📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. 📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. 📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge. 🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below: 🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total 🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction 🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction 📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely 📊 XNOUSDT %80 Reaction with a Simple Blue Box! 📊 BELUSDT Amazing %120 Reaction! I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
Long
by UmutTrades
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so. Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD. ✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD. 💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD) Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025. Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral. ⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD. 📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times. The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce. Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high). Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480. RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed. 🧠 Technical Outlook: If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100. If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480. 📊 Trade Summary Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD. Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation. 🧭 Trade Plan 🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500. 🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD CRACK!I first turned bullish on the EUR back in November 2024 after the disastrous election results. I have always felt the 105 area was a good area to go long, fundamentally going back all the way to 2017. Here is an example. After 17 years of data, we can all agree that the 105 area was a great value to get long the EUR. Now we see a major CRACK! in the chart with the fundamentals to back it up. Again, I remind you I am a MACRO Trader. So my trades hold for a long, long time unless the facts change. I don't do 3 pips and i am out crap! Let this be a WARNING! To the dollar bulls! Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets, too. ))
Long
by RealMacro
1
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15 Endogenous strength improving each month Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT 📅 Seasonality 📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April 📉 USD Index bearish all month 🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long 📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424) 🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional) 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
Long
by wajahatarif
EUR/USD Breakout Extends Toward 1.15 – Is 1.17 Next?The euro continues its sharp ascent, breaking convincingly above key resistance at 1.1200 and now eyeing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745. Momentum remains firmly bullish: 🚀 Price has surged through both the 50- and 200-day SMAs 📈 MACD is accelerating higher, showing strong bullish momentum 📊 RSI is nearing overbought territory at 74.92, but not diverging yet As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1200, the path of least resistance may remain higher. However, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion near the 1.17 area, a key technical confluence that could slow the rally. -MW
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 21, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD broke out of a multi-day trading range and hit a new high since February 2022 around 1.1485 during the Asian session on Monday. Despite “aggressive” comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy continues to undermine the dollar. Last Wednesday, Powell said the Fed would likely keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and wait for more clarity before considering any policy adjustments. Meanwhile, Trump's retaliatory tariff announcements undermined investor confidence in U.S. economic growth and drove the dollar to a two-year low early in the new week. The aforementioned factors largely offset the European Central Bank's (ECB) soft decision last week and served as a tailwind for EUR/USD. On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year and warned that economic growth would be hit hard by US tariffs, bolstering the case for further policy easing in the coming months. Moving forward, traders this week will be focused on scheduled speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday and a number of influential FOMC members this week. In addition, the market's focus will be on the release of flash PMI indices, which could provide new insights into the state of the global economy. This, in turn, may give some impetus to the US dollar and EUR/USD. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1520, SL 1.1465 , TP 1.1565.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Reversal Coming on EUR/USD"EUR/USD approaching potential reversal zone. Watching for confirmation to short from the top of wave C. Target: previous support. #elliottwave #forextrading #eurusd” Key Takeaways from the Chart: 1. Current Zone (C Wave): Price is entering the key resistance/supply zone. C wave completion is expected here (likely the end of the correction). 2. Bearish Reaction Expected: You're forecasting a potential reversal from this zone. A short-term retracement or trend reversal is likely, marked by the red arrow. 3. Trade Plan (Based on Idea): Wait for Price Action Confirmation in the resistance zone (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, divergence). Once confirmed, look for a short entry with a target toward the yellow support box. Use tight stop-loss above the resistance zone.
Short
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD 3 TARGETS for selling 3 TOPS. The 5 year cheat-sheet!The EURUSD pair opened the week with a strong rally already due to the fundamentals surrounding the recent Tariff news. The 1W RSI is overbought at 74.00 and it hasn't been that high since January 22 2018. That was a long-term Top for EURUSD that initiated a 2-year downtrend until the March 2020 COVID crash and the start of massive rate hiking. Even the last two times that the RSI came close to such overbought levels, the pair started a 6-month peak formation pattern with 3 Highs that offered solid short entries before the eventual larger downtrend. Those periods were January 30 2023 - July 17 2023 and August 31 2020 - May 24 2021. Given that EURUSD is now trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and just formed a 1D MA50/ 1W MA50 Bullish Cross, we are closer to High (1) than not, since every time that is formed close to the standard +16.19% rise from the bottom. For those successive Highs, our long-term sell targets will be 1.12500, 1.13250 and 1.12000 on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD: continuously overboughtPrevious week was the relatively calmer one on financial markets, to some extent due to lack of new information regarding trade tariffs. In addition, Friday was a holiday on Western markets, and was a non-working day, same as Monday in the week ahead. Usually, the pre-holiday period is a relatively calmer one on markets. As for macro data posted for the US, the Retail Sales in March were higher by 1,4% a bit higher from market consensus of 1,3%. The Industrial Production in March dropped by -0,3% for the month, while on a yearly basis was standing at 1,3%. Building permits preliminary for March were at the level of 1.482M a bit higher from market estimate of 1,45M. Building permits were by 1,6% higher on a monthly basis. The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates. Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro. The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April, USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
by XBTFX
DeGRAM | EURUSD Breaks the Downward Wedge📊 Technical Analysis EUR/USD trades in a rising channel, holding support. - Price broke out of a falling wedge and retested 1.1350, confirming bullish momentum. - Resistance lies at 1.1500–1.1550. ✨ Summary Confirmed wedge breakout support EUR/USD growth. Above 1.1350, targets: 1.1500–1.1550 and 1.1650–1.1840 medium term. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution. --- 1. Context & Market Structure: - The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction. - Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure. - The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend. --- 2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones: - Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind. - The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection. - The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution. --- 3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones: - 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection. - 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher. - These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation. --- 4. Anticipated Move: - The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside. - The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur. - The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes. --- 5. Trade Idea Narrative: - This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend. - The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone. - Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment. --- Summary: Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Louigi_24
35
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections. From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However: Momentum seems overstretched. RSI shows potential overbought signals. There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area. 📌 Trade Setup: I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30. 🧾 COT Report – GBP Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months. Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction. 💵 COT Report – USD Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March). This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns. 📉 Summary: Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view: GBP remains weak on the institutional side. USD is regaining strength.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Bullish Pennant Confirms Breakout: Momentum Builds Toward 1.19The pair has formed a textbook bullish pennant on the 4-hour timeframe following a sharp impulsive move upward. Price action consolidated within a narrowing triangle, signaling accumulation before the next leg higher. The breakout above the pennant’s resistance suggests continuation of the uptrend, with projected Fibonacci targets at: 1.1781 (1.272 extension) 1.1940 (1.414 extension) Volume behavior confirms the pattern: declining during the consolidation phase and increasing at the breakout, supporting a strong bullish bias. Fundamental backdrop: -The US Dollar faces pressure as markets increasingly price in a potential Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025. -The ECB maintains a more hawkish stance, reinforcing euro strength relative to USD. -Eurozone economic data shows signs of inflation stabilization, while US CPI readings remain mixed. -Capital rotation favors major currencies with resilient monetary policies and macroeconomic stability. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1476, the bullish scenario remains intact. A move toward 1.1781 and 1.1940 appears likely. A breakdown below 1.1237 would invalidate the pennant and shift momentum toward support retests.
Long
by TotoshkaTrades
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.1530, aligning with the 127.2% Fibo extension. Our take profit will be at 1.1426, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1624, above the 161.8% Fibo extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Bearish reversal for the Fiber?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1532 1st Support: 1.1198 1st Resistance: 1.1710 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1524 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.1667 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 1.1201 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets