EURUSD SEEMS TO FIND SUPPORT
TRADING IDEA UPDATE - EURUSD SEEMS TO FIND SUPPORT🦾
EURUSD seems to find support on a trendline and shows us divergence on RSI on 1-h timeframe. So, I decided to close my trade in advance before my stop loss gets triggered and open long position with a
🔼 a market buy order at 1.16833 with
❌a stop loss at 1.16324 and
🤑a take profit at 1.18266
Additionally, today is the U.S. CPI report data coming out. Market expects the annual inflation to be around 2.7%. Me, personally, think that actual June inflation will be a bit lower, which may provide some fundamental support to the EURUSD. Will see.
Eurusd-4
USDJPY – Tactical Short in Weekly Supply or Bullish Breakout?COT & MACRO FLOW (Commitment of Traders)
USD INDEX
Non-commercials still biased short: Longs 16,208 vs Shorts 20,194 (slightly improved, but still negative).
Commercials remain net long, but the open interest is declining → no strong conviction from smart money.
JPY
Non-commercials added significantly to their short exposure (+6,751), while cutting longs (-4,432).
Commercials also cut long exposure heavily (-20,405).
The structure shows institutional bias is clearly bearish on JPY.
Conclusion: JPY weakness confirmed by both commercial and non-commercial flows. USD slightly weaker, but JPY is weaker → supports USDJPY bullish bias.
SEASONALITY (JULY)
USD/JPY tends to be weak in July across most historical averages (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y).
July is historically bearish for USDJPY, especially in the second half of the month.
This seasonality contrasts with COT flows → mixed bias.
RETAIL SENTIMENT
60% of retail traders are SHORT → supports contrarian long view.
Retail volume shows imbalance in positioning, another contrarian bullish signal.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (DAILY CHART)
Price is testing a key weekly FVG zone between 148.4 and 149.2.
RSI has re-entered the overbought region, suggesting potential exhaustion.
Price bounced from the monthly bullish order block (143.5–144.0).
A clear move above 149.50 could invalidate short setups.
🧩 TRADE IDEA (SETUP)
Watch for price to retest 148.4–149.50 zone and react.
RSI divergence + seasonality could offer a short opportunity with confirmation (e.g. engulfing on Daily/H4).
If price breaks above 149.5 with volume → look for continuation to 152.00.
✅ FINAL BIAS
Macro and institutional flows remain in favor of USDJPY longs, but:
Seasonality turns bearish in the second half of July
Price is reaching strong resistance
Retail sentiment supports the long thesis
→ Tactical Short from 149-150 only with confirmation. Otherwise, long continuation above 150.
EURUSD – Bearish Pressure Mounts Ahead of Triangle Breakout EURUSD is trading within a contracting triangle and currently leans toward a bearish bias. After several failed attempts to break the upper boundary, momentum is weakening, and the pair is showing signs of a potential breakdown toward lower support levels.
With several key events ahead, the euro may face additional pressure if upcoming Eurozone inflation data disappoints or if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone through upcoming speeches by U.S. officials. Unless there is a strong bullish catalyst, EURUSD is likely to correct further to the downside.
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1681, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at .1642, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1714, a swing-high resistance level.
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Market Watch UPDATES! FOREX Major PairsWelcome to the Market Watch Updates for Monday, July 14th.
In this video, we will give the forecast updates for the following markets:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
LONG | EUR/USD | 1DCurrent Level: ~1.1662
Revised Entry Zone: 🔄 Buy the dip around 1.1660–1.1670
This aligns with 50-day EMA and daily/4H pivot (~1.1630–1.1670) acting as support.
Stop Loss: 1.1630 (just below 50 EMA & recent low)
Target: 1.1750 → 1.1800 (range high/resistance)
Risk:Reward: ~1:3.8
✅ Institutional Rationale:
Momentum remains bullish, though momentum indicators are cooling—price retesting structural support (mid-BB, pivot zone).
Weekly outlook still favors bulls while above 1.1637–1.1670—suggesting accumulated buy orders in this zone.
Event risk: U.S. employment and Fed speakers imminent—creates ideal buy-on-dip opportunities with tight stops.
Bullish bounce for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 1.1612
1st Support: 1.1538
1st Resistance: 1.1803
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EURUSD The 4H MA200 distinguishes bullish from bearish.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a (blue) 2-month Channel Up since the May 12 Low and it just broke below its 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The previous two Bearish Legs of this pattern bottomed (made a Higher Low) on or just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, the price is very close to the most optimal buy level of this pattern and as long as it holds, we expect to start the new Bullish Leg and target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (1.20000 our Target just below), which is in line with the previous two Bullish Legs.
If however the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks, we will take the loss on that long and go short as technically the price should seek the bottom of the (dotted) wider Channel Up. Our Target on that occasion will be 1.14000, right at the top of the High Volatility Zone.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
EURUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1684
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.1633
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1776
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.16802 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.16684.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long Opportunity for EURUSDEURUSD is currently in a retracement within a bullish trend with clear Bullish market structures in place.
Price is currently approaching the break and retest level at 1,16285... a potential pivot point which acted as a resistance level in the past. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is trading below the 21 and 50 SMA due to the slow nature of the retracement and we are seeing bearish momentum on the RSI.
Need to see the Bulls stepping in with clean bullish momentum on the 4 hour chart to confirm the bullish market directionality before looking to take a long position. will also be observing the bearish trendline break as an additional point of confluence to take the long trade
XAU/USD : Gold at a Turning Point – Rejection or Breakout Ahead?By analyzing the TVC:GOLD (XAUUSD) chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that price climbed to $3330 today, entering a key supply zone, which triggered a pullback down to $3310. Gold is now trading around $3317, and I’m watching several potential setups closely.
Scenario 1:
If gold stabilizes below $3320, we could see a bearish move toward $3296.
Scenario 2:
If price breaks above the $3333 resistance, it may enter the next supply zone between $3341 and $3351, which could trigger a strong rejection—potentially offering a 100 to 400 pip move.
Now let’s break down the key levels to watch:
Supply zones: $3320, $3333, $3342, $3358
Demand zones: $3303, $3296, $3289, $3278
Monitor how price reacts to each of these zones — they may provide excellent opportunities.
EURUSD Testing Patience – Bearish Trend Not Over YetEURUSD – Overview
EURUSD continues to trade under pressure amid bearish momentum, respecting key technical levels.
The price maintains bearish momentum as long as it trades below 1.1745, with downside targets at 1.1627 and 1.1557.
A retest of 1.1745 is possible and considered normal in this structure. However, if the price stabilizes below 1.1684, it will likely continue dropping toward the support targets.
To shift back to a bullish bias, the pair must break and hold above 1.1745.
Pivot Line: 1.1695
Support Levels: 1.1627 – 1.1557
Resistance Levels: 1.1745 – 1.1810
previous idea:
EURUSD POTENTIAL BUY SETUP 4HLooking at EURUSD, Price is moving in a descending channel. EU on the high timeframe is bullish as Dollar is weak. I am expecting EU to fall into the marked FVG to clear the lows and take internal liquidity from the marked FVG before moving higher and take the Buyside Liquidity as marked.
Potential Entry= 1.6350
Stop loss= 1.15650
Take Profit = 1.18250
Please wait for price to come into the marked potential area to take this trade and manage your risk accordingly. Follow me for more updates and trades.
EUR/USD –Bullish Flag After Long Term Trend Shift: Is 1.20 Next?📌 In my previous EUR/USD analysis, I mentioned that the long-term trend likely reversed, and we could see a move toward the 1.23 zone in the medium to longer term.
That view is playing out.
Recently, the pair printed a new local high above 1.18, confirming the trend change.
📉 After this rise, EUR/USD pulled back –but the structure is clearly corrective: overlapping and a classic bullish flag formation.
What's next?
This correction looks close to completion, and bulls may soon return to push toward the key 1.20 level.
Trading Plan:
The 1.1620–1.1650 area stands out as a strong confluence zone – ideal for looking for buying opportunities.
The trend has changed. The setup is forming. Now it’s about timing.
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EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.177.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.172 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD and GBPUSD are preparing to continue the upward trendAfter a significant rise in the EURUSD and GBPUSD, they have formed a descending price channel, and it is expected that this channel will be broken to complete the upward trend, because there is no sign of weakness yet, and the Main Lows have not yet been broken.
Which Way to GoHello students and traders, let us jump into a quick top down analysis of the EURUSD.
On the Monthly, we see that price is in a down swing. We have seen price recently go bullish, all the way into the Monthly zone, from where it has begun to reverse bearish. We expect price to hold bearish and continue to melt towards our Monthly liquidity target.
Weekly & Daily:
On the weekly and daily Time frames, we have a bullish setup. This bullish setup is what has helped in driving prices all the way up and into the Monthly refined reversal zone. The weekly timeframe is curently seeing a bearish reversal. With the price hitting the monthly zone, there is a low likelihood of price continuing bullish. The bearishness might just continue for a while.
4 hour and 1 Hour
On the smaler timeframes of the 1 and 4 hour timeframe, market is in a bearish swing. We see prices making lower highs and lower lows, a clear sign of a downtrend. We expect this bearishness to hold. Where that happens, we will see market in the longrun and on the lower time frames experience bearish reversals, with price untimately targetting the Monthly liquidity target.
EURUSD - OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY BOTH SIDES OF DESCENDING CHANNEL CMCMARKETS:EURUSD
TRADING IDEA - EURUSD MOVES WITHIN A DESCENDING CHANNEL - OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY BOTH SIDES
EURUSD has been trading within a descending channel since the beginning of the month. Nearby the upper border of the channel there is SMA200 on a 30-m timeframe, pushing on the pair. Generally speaking, all major moving averages are pushing on the EURUSD, the short-term bearish trend continues, so I decided to open
🔽 a market sell order at 1.16688 with
❌a stop loss at 1.16985 and
🤑a take profit at 1.16324
Later I expect a rebound from the lower border with a potential uprise towards upper border of the descending channel.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 14, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure: on Monday the pair slipped to 1.16750 after the European Commission extended its pause on retaliatory tariffs against the United States until 1 August. With no resolution in sight, the trade dispute keeps European exporters on edge and turns the dollar into a safe-haven choice for investors looking to limit risk.
Additional support for the greenback comes from rising real yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate is holding above 4.40 %, locking in a wide spread over German Bunds. That has led futures traders to price in just one 25 bp Federal Reserve rate cut for the rest of the year, reducing the euro’s relative appeal.
Macro data from the euro area offer little relief. German industrial production rose only 0.2 % m/m in May, while the July ZEW expectations index slid back into negative territory. With the ECB having already delivered a June cut and projecting lower inflation ahead, inward capital flows to the eurozone remain subdued.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16750, SL 1.17050, TP 1.16200
EUR/USD Holding Support — Watching for Bullish ReactionHi Everyone,
Since our last update, EUR/USD continues to range near the 1.16680 support level. We’re watching for buying interest to emerge above the key 1.16450 zone, which has acted as a critical level for the broader structure.
Should price manage to stabilise and form a base here, there’s potential for a move back towards the highlighted resistance area around 1.17450. A clear reaction from support could confirm renewed buying interest and set the stage for a retest of last week’s highs.
Our broader outlook remains unchanged: as long as price holds above 1.16450, we continue to look for the pair to build momentum for another move higher in the coming sessions. A decisive break above last week’s high could attract fresh buying interest, paving the way for a push towards the 1.19290 area and ultimately 1.20000.
We'll be watching closely to see if this recovery gains traction and whether buyers can sustain the move above resistance. The longer-term view remains bullish, provided price continues to respect the key support zone.
We’ll keep updating you through the week as the structure unfolds and share how we’re managing our active positions.
Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we really appreciate the support!
All the best for the rest of the week. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Sells from 1.17200 back downWeekly Outlook: EUR/USD (EU)
This week, my bias on EUR/USD is similar to GBP/USD, as both pairs have been following a consistent bearish trend. Based on this structure, I’ll be watching to see if price begins a retracement back into an area of supply.
I’ve marked out the 8-hour supply zone, which sits at a premium level and was responsible for the last break of structure to the downside. If price retraces into this zone, I’ll look for potential sell confirmations on the lower time frames.
If price doesn’t tap into the supply zone first, I’ll then shift my focus to the 8-hour demand zone below. In that case, I’ll watch closely for signs of accumulation and a bullish reaction from this level, which could signal the start of a rally.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
✅ Bearish trend has been consistent for the past few weeks.
✅ Breaks of structure have formed new supply zones to trade from.
✅ Liquidity exists below current price, which may be targeted first.
✅ The lower demand zone remains unmitigated, suggesting further downside movement.
📌 On the way down toward demand, I expect price to form another break of structure to the downside. The plan is to ride the sells down into demand, then look for potential buy opportunities if price begins to accumulate and react.
Let’s stay sharp and disciplined — have a solid trading week, everyone! 📊