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Eurusd-price

EURUSD-bearish outlook in daily chart EURUSD has started this month with positive pips because of the relative weakness of US dollar , historically November and December was bearish for the dollar. As comparing with euro dollar is performing well. EURUSD is struggling to get bullish momentum after breaking up the upper side of the trend line briefly reached 1.07500 and currently trading around 1.06880. Technically both 100,200 EMA making golden cross. Ichimoku cloud is still red and the price line is within the cloud. The downside target will be 1.05850.
Short
by forexorbit
EURUSD LONG while other majors weaker than DollarEuro and Swissi are currently the only majors against US Dollar that are strong. EUR/USD climbs above 1.0820 after soft US PPI data EUR/USD shoots to near 1.0820 as US PPI deflated wider than anticipated UR/USD has jumped strongly to near 1.0820 as US PPI has softened significantly inspired by lower gasoline prices. US monthly headline PPI has registered deflation while core PPI has maintained its pace at 0.2%. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4% in order to sharpen its quantitative tools in the battle above 6% inflation. The EUR/USD pair has accelerated dramatically to near 1.0820 after the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows wider-than-expectations deflation. Monthly headline PPI contracted by 0.3% in May while the street was anticipating a 0.1% contraction. Investors should note that the economic data reported a pace of 0.2% in April. Annualized headline PPI has softened to 1.1% vs. the consensus of 1.5% and the prior release of 2.3%. Contrary to that, US monthly core PPI has maintained its pace at 0.2% as expected by the market participants. The annualized core PPI has decelerated to 2.8% against the expectations of 2.9% and the former release of 3.1%. The impact of weak oil prices is clearly visible in extremely soft PPI figures. Firms have passed on the impact of the sheer decline in gasoline prices to the end consumers as the street has not recognized any sign of a slowdown in the overall demand yet. It looks like in the list of soft inflation, easing labor market conditions, and weak economic activities, decelerated PPI has been added, which would propel the need of skipping interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has attracted significant offers after softer-than-anticipated and has dropped below the crucial support of 103.00. On the Eurozone front, investors are awaiting the interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4% in order to sharpen its quantitative tools in the battle above 6% inflation. Economists at Danske Bank expect a pause by the Fed could pose near-term upside risks to EUR/USD, but we still maintain a bearish view on the cross towards the second half of CY2023. The cautious optimism, however, continues as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their decisions on monetary policy in the next 24 hours. In the upcoming American session, it will be the Fed’s turn, with the central bank also releasing the Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot- Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Jerome Powell will offer a press conference. Big Picture EUR BULLISH Continued Eurozone growth over time, and much slower pace of rate cuts from the ECB relative to the Fed Policy rates are unlikely to have peaked at 3.00% Further ECB tightening supporting outlook for medium term strength ECB will likely stay on the path possibly for a while longer ECB may have another 150 bps of rates hikes to go to get to a terminal rate of 4% Growth and monetary policy trends to support Euro Declining inflation in the US ,reopening of China, and cheaper gas prices to avoid a significant economic slowdown The rate hikes will continue and that’s positive for the Euro An improving outlook for the eurozone economy and currency Buying Euro on every ray of sunlight Improving investor sentiment in Europe Euro should show an increasingly solid recovery as the US outlook dims ECB hawks are waking up USD BEARISH The hurdle for raising rates this month is higher, implying fresh US Dollar falls Dollar weakness will pick up pace during 2024 as market attention turns toward Fed rate cuts Fed feels more comfortable with receding inflation US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged America on verge of losing petrodollar privilege Other regions may need to continue their crusade for inflation, reducing spreads of debt securities yields Combination of lower Fed rate expectations and improved risk sentiment is quintessentially negative No more Fed hikes, potentially lethal to the US Dollar US economy to slip into recession, Fed eventually cut rates quicker than peer institutions Sticky inflation? What is sticky is the downtrend EUR/USD BEARISH THEMES EUR BEARISH Russia is going to get rid of the Euros in their wealth fund European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 Italy’s debt could be a worry for the Eurozone Inflation risks are to the upside, while growth risks are on the downside ECB is moving from fighting inflation to worrying about inflation Europe is in a great stress Bracing for a tough winter Underwhelming Eurozone growth should see ECB lag well behind the Fed Europe is the biggest loser in the Russian-Ukrainian war Recession seems likely in Germany Energy crunch could last years The route of the energy plan could drive to a lengthy, messy and choppy period The war is still a huge drag on the European economy USD BULLISH When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
5
ICT Market Maker Sell ModelFirst you must have a clean consolidation which you are anticipating that it will be taken once market come up. Secondly you must have an old low Significant OB which market is chasing it(magnetic) and you know that after market taken out that old low then it will reverse quickly to come up to attack your consolidation. And finally you will investigate if you have any bearish SMT divergence that will give you a confidence that market will chase that old low
Education
by huntingtheflow
4
Training Week 1 - Day 1 : Trend indentificationHi everyone Day 1 on my journey : "reading the market" Today on EURUSD , Daily chart Objective was to watch the market and try to identify the trend Thats what i'm going to do all this week Take my time , and try to "read" all of this what i see on this chart ? Long term downtrend Last Low make what "we" called a "support" , we may talk about liquidity here i guess ? Last LH broken to make a new HH + price on a daily chart dont go under the last low point , hum ...* does this mean anything ? * Training diary 28/09/2021 - 09:26 UTC EURUSD thank you for your reading please know that your feedback is greatly appreciated Mathy
by CptMathy
Interaction of trendsIt is interesting to study trends and how they interact because the price level of any security is influenced simultaneously by different trends. Hence, why we need to note some application of trend classifications as it applies to trend interactions. 1. When we see any specific price pattern, our first question should be: Which type of trend is being reversed? If it is a short-term trend that is being reversed, then we would not be expecting much price movement when compared to an intermediate or primary trend being reversed. 2. Since intermediate and primary trends dominate price action, traders who deal with short-term trends should pay attention to these trends. They can help them in making good trading decisions. 3. When a trade is positioned in a countercyclical position to the main trend, trading losses usually happen. I do not say that trading with countercyclical positions to the main trend do not succeed, but they have a higher probability of resulting in failures. I trade countercyclical positions sometimes, but I am careful. I usually want to see the patterns having high volatility or being well pronounced. Below is an EURGBP chart showing a two bar reversal that did not move much because it was countercyclical to the main trend which was a downtrend.
Education
by Emekadavid
EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR (POTENTIAL FUTURE SHORT) EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR So I have been dealing/battling with this pair for the past month or so, as I think many traders have been. EURUSD on the daily timeframe keeps attempting to break to the upside above structure around 1.17200 but last couple times has been slammed down by the sellers resulting in a fakeout above structure on the 4H around price handle of 1.16500. This pair definitely hasn't been easy to trade but I wanted to post analysis on this for future reference for a future potential short trade opportunity. Based on the fact that the sellers keep pulling it back down in price it's showing me that the sellers do have some interest in shorting this pair. Keep an eye on this pair for a test of 1.16500 recent significant structure and BEFORE we look to sell I'm going to say wait for a break/breach and hold beneath significant structure around the 1.15400 area. This is due to the fact that structure here has been holding very well with good interest from the buyers around this point, so if we're looking to go short we should wait for a break and hold beneath this structure point (so that we have higher probability) on this trade if we have a chance to take it. I just wanted to post this so everyone can keep their eye out on it and see my outlook for it as well. I have a few other setups I may be posting about this week I just need a little more data to see to be able to make a business decision based on a probable setup. I will keep everyone updated! Please like and follow me here on TradingView for more trade posts! Cheers!
Short
by JosePips
1
Trading Psychology 4 "Now Moment"Trading the "Now moment" Most of the time, prices do what they have been doing or normally do based on the current context. But what about when they dont, or instead do the opposite? For instance a strong bear breakout of a bull channel. Five minutes ago prices were rallying higher and higher, with no end in sight. Now prices are falling dramatically, what is a trader to do? Is he going to continue trading as a bull channel or trading range? Or does he exit his longs with a loss and sell at the market? Unless he accepts the reality that in a market truly anything can happen and anything is possible, he will more likely be unable to let go of the past and not willing to recognize the opportunity being presented right now. In this scenario he would probably fail to take the later action, and instead continue to fight the strong bear breakout because his mind is convinced prices are still in some form of bull trend or bull flag trading range. Until a trader truly accepts this fundamental point of market reality, it is easy to get caught up in what should happen and the true opportunity continues to elude him. The reality of the market is; every moment in the market is unique, and every opportunity has a different set of risk, reward, and probability. What worked today, may or may not work tomorrow. Most beginners fail to appreciate or even realize this is the case, as they attempt to apply rigid rules to a constantly changing environment. This prevents a clear, objective view of what prices are likely and not likely to do. As a result, this does not allow the trader to correctly identify the opportunity being presented "right now." Awareness A major obstacle to trading the "now moment" is where a traders awareness lies at any given time. Is he thinking about what happened an hour ago, or what may happen by the end of the day, or is he intently focused on what is transpiring in this very moment? Identifying and becoming aware of what is occuring internally while trading is helpful in this situtation. The idea is not to fight or prevent emotions from occuring, but rather acknowledge they are present and inturn may lead to a poor trading decision. Most trading errors are due to an emotional outburst or the traders awareness being somewhere else other than the market. Beathing exercises such as focusing on the breath and taking slow, deep breaths, can help ease the internal tension and return focus back to the market. This is a form of awareness training (mindfulness), which can help a trader with concentration and placing his awareness on the trading task at hand. It is also beneficial to practice some form of mindfulness outside of trading to become more intune with yourself, and ultimately the market. Trading along side stress / emotions What makes the difference between an amateur and professional trader is not the lack of thoughts, emotions, or stress. Professional traders too have these characterstics as we are all human, although they may be less obvious to the observer. However, a professional does not act on these feelings, and instead does what is necessary based on the market structure, not how he feels or what he thinks. He may find himself distracted with thoughts or an emotion, but then brings his awareness back to the trading task at hand. Amateurs do the opposite by allowing these feelings and emotions to lead to actions in the market, which more often than not are trading errors. Amateurs get stuck so to speak in the stress or emotion rather than the correct trade action. Moving past this is not easy, but returning awareness to the market rather than internally is the first step. An easy way of accomplishing this is to periodically throughout the day ask yourself "Where is my awareness?" or "Where is my mind?" The next question is, "What is the opportunity being presented right now?” or “What is the market telling me to do right now?” Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality